The EU is currently experiencing the coincidence of two phenomena: the demise of its decades-old economic model, based on the successive enlargement of the EU, and the ageing of European populations, leading to a slow-down of the economy.
Since the 1950s, the Union has operated a regulatory model on migration whose sole point was the promotion of growth by facilitating mobility amongst member states. Now, the EU is approaching the end of the road as far as admitting new members is concerned. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly costly and difficult to engage EU neighbours in effective border control cooperation, with the most dire consequences for migrants and refugees.
But, most importantly, EU demographics today are radically different from those of earlier decades. While the EU regulatory model on migration and asylum is clearly outdated, there are reasons to doubt that it will be possible to negotiate a successor model. Paradoxically, the ageing of populations will block this important policy process, pushing the EU, its member states and its peoples into a vicious circle.
Ageing
Here is why. Improved health means that EU populations will live longer, while birth rates are dropping. Researchers are in agreement that growth abates in the resulting demographics of ageing populations as each worker will need to support an increasing number of non-working persons. Slowing growth, in turn, makes redistribution harder, preserving or exacerbating income inequality.
This has consequences for the political landscape. Stagnating regions and older voters tend to prefer nationalist parties with anti-immigrant programmes, as recent studies indicate. With increasing support for nationalist parties, immigration laws are likely to become ever more restrictive. But this denies EU member states the most important short-term remedy for the demographics of ageing populations, namely immigration. We are entering a vicious circle where the political effects of increasingly older populations, sluggish growth and growing inequality reinforce each other.
This post was originally published on Radio Free.
