Three days after Cambodia’s highly controlled national election, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced Wednesday he will step down and hand power to his eldest son, army chief Hun Manet. 

Hun Sen, 70, has ruled Cambodia since 1985, making him one of the longest serving leaders in the world. 

During those decades, Cambodia saw an end to civil war, rapid economic growth and a steep decrease in poverty. But Hun Sen’s strongman rule has also been marked by extreme corruption, resource depletion, violence and political repression.  

The July 23 election had no viable opposition and many saw it as smoothing the way for a power transfer. Immediately before the election Hun Sen told a Chinese television station that Hun Manet could become premier within a month.  

Will Hun Sen retain any power after the transfer? 

Hun Sen will take on several powerful positions. He will become president of the Senate, president of the Supreme Council of the King, and president of the CPP. As a result, Hun Sen may well be expected to control much behind the scenes. 

He will also continue on as honorary president of the recently formed Cambodia Oknha Association. By heading the group of wealthy tycoons, Hun Sen is expected to also wield a potent economic tool. 

Why is this happening now?

Hun Sen has variously promised to rule until 74, 90 and indefinitely. But in recent years he has spoken more about an eventual resignation. In 2021, he said Hun Manet would take over between 2028 and 2030. The announcement was officially endorsed by the party. 

Even though Hun Sen announced a weeks-long transfer timeline just before the election, many were surprised by the speed at which he’s moving to implement the transition. 

According to Hun Sen, Hun Manet will be appointed Aug. 10 and sworn in Aug. 22. There has been speculation that the shift is related to Hun Sen’s health or internal party conflicts, though there has been no definitive sign that either issue is the cause. It is also understood that Hun Sen wants the transfer to happen in time for his son to attend the UN General Assembly in early September.  

What is clear is that Hun Sen and the CPP are attempting to prevent as little turmoil as possible when Hun Manet takes over. CPP spokesman Sok Eysan told RFA that only a few ministers will stay on when the new government is formed later this month.  

Who is Hun Manet?

Hun Manet, 45, has been groomed for decades to take over the premiership. He was the first Cambodian to be admitted to the U.S.’s elite military academy West Point and later went on to get a doctorate in economics at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. 

A four-star general, Hun Manet has served in Cambodia’s military since 1995. He was the commander of the army until stepping down recently to run as a lawmaker for Phnom Penh. 

What are the expectations for Hun Manet’s rule?

Hun Sen built his public persona as an everyman — partly through famously lengthy, bombastic but often funny and rough speeches. In contrast, the western-educated and mild-mannered Hun Manet carefully curates his every statement, rarely betraying his true thoughts or feelings. 

The effect has been to make him a sort of inkblot test for Cambodia watchers. Optimists see in Hun Manet a closeted reformist itching to step out of his father’s shadow and rescue a country teetering on the edge of pariah status. They note his academic credentials, including his 2001 master’s thesis exploring the idea of land reforms in Cambodia. They also point to his seeming reluctance to be dragged into his father’s dirtier political frays. 

Pessimists counter that Hun Manet has never veered from his father’s “stability” narrative, which is a thinly veiled threat that any attempt to unseat the Hun family would be met with violence. Moreover, any attempt at meaningful reform would run up against the vested interests of the nation’s tycoons and military leaders. Their support has been vital in sustaining Hun Sen’s 38-year reign and would presumably be equally essential to his son. 

The truth, however, is that nobody but Hun Manet really knows for sure what he has planned.

Another unknown is how much latitude Hun Sen will allow his oldest child. While he has vowed to step down, he will hardly be stepping out of politics entirely.  

This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By RFA Khmer.

This post was originally published on Radio Free.