Europe is waiting for the European Central Bank to lay out its latest interest rate cut plans after the US Federal Reserve had hinted at its first cut in years again and the Bank of Japan set the yen on another tear higher.
While share and bond market traders were in their usual pre-ECB holding patterns on Thursday, FX dealers were watching the Japanese currency enjoy its strongest day of 2024 with a more than one per cent jump.
Japanese workers’ nominal pay in January grew two per cent, overnight data showed.
The country’s major employment union had also won big pay hikes in 2024 wage talks, while BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa signalled her conviction that conditions for phasing out negative rates were now falling into place.
With economists speculating that could happen as soon as March, the yen charged up to 147.90 per dollar and 161.22 to the euro, which for both was the highest in at least three weeks.
Attention was already turning though to the ECB later where the Bank is set to keep its interest rates steady at a record four per cent.
The focus will be on any messaging it provides about a potential cut in coming months.
Isabelle Vic-Philippe, a euro zone bond fund manager at Amundi, said markets were “close to fair value” pricing in three to four ECB cuts this year starting in June.
One of the questions both she and many investors have though is whether the ECB or the Fed will be the first out of the blocks.
“I think the ECB can afford to cut a bit earlier if they are convinced the Fed will follow shortly afterwards,” Vic-Philippe said.
“My question (for ECB head Christine Lagarde) would be where do you think the neutral rate for the ECB now stands.”
The ECB will also publish new staff macroeconomic projections that are expected to prune both its inflation and growth forecasts for 2024.
Futures are almost fully priced in for a first rate cut from the ECB in June, with a total easing of 88 basis points expected for all of the year.
On Wednesday, Wall Street closed higher after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Fed still expected to cut rates later in 2024, even though continued progress on inflation “is not assured”.
That kept bets of a US rate cut in June alive at an 84 per cent probability.
Longer-term bond yields slipped, the dollar fell, gold prices hit a record high and oil had jumped on Wednesday.
There was little cheer in markets to the better-than-expected China trade figures overnight in Asia, however, after an official from the state planner flagged the upside surprise a day earlier.
Chinese blue chips fell 0.4 per cent, weighed by a 3.3 per cent plunge in the healthcare sector on the news that a US bill targeting Chinese biotech companies like BGI and WuXi AppTec was moving ahead.
The sharp rally in the yen had also seen the Nikkei slide back 1.4 per cent after it had hit a fresh all-time high earlier in the session.
Commodity prices gyrated on the weaker dollar. Gold prices rose 0.4 per cent to $US2,156.49, another record high.
Oil prices were mostly lower, however, having jumped one per cent the previous session.
Brent drifted back to $US82.27 a barrel, while bitcoin hovered near record highs at $US66,361 in the sizzling cryptocurrency markets.
This post was originally published on Michael West.