The opposition’s strategy on climate targets is risky and threatens a repeat of painful losses to independents, one expert warns, as environmental policy shapes up as a major battleground in next year’s election. 

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s plan to abandon 2030 emissions reduction targets if elected could alienate voters because climate change had consistently been one of the top three issues that decided recent elections, Andrew Hughes said. 

That held especially in the inner-city seats he needed back for the Liberals to form government, said Dr Hughes, an Australian National University academic who specialises in political marketing and advertising.

“I don’t think he will get into office because he needs to win the moderate seats back somewhere,” he told AAP.

Teal independents who unseated Liberal moderates in inner Sydney and Melbourne seats at the last election already see an opportunity and are jumping gleefully on Mr Dutton’s rhetoric on the climate.

Even if the coalition won more seats, it would still likely need independents to form a minority government and nearly all had expressed strong support for climate action, Dr Hughes said.

“Where do they get the numbers from? I can’t really see them getting enough independents across the line to form government,” he said.

Mr Dutton rekindled the flickering embers of Australia’s climate wars when he took aim at the government’s renewable energy plan, saying it would not achieve its 43 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 and only served to drive up power prices in the interim. 

He used a campaign stop in the affluent Sydney seat of Bennelong, which the Liberals lost for only the second time in history in 2022, to attack the government for relying too much on renewable energy.

“(It) is a wrecking ball going through the economy,” he said.

Mr Dutton has pinned his hopes on nuclear energy to cut emissions and costs, despite studies showing atomic power is more expensive to generate than renewables and other forms. 

Labor has criticised the policy for being too expensive as well as taking aim at the long lead time to get a reactor up and running. 

Coalition MPs have told AAP they’re not wedded to the 2030 target as it’s unlikely to be met, but said they weren’t consulted ahead of the opposition leader’s change in stance over the weekend.

While some were unfazed about the policy as their constituents were focused on cost-of-living pressures and energy bill prices, they said it would make it harder for Liberals fighting progressive independents to win.

Under the Paris Agreement, which was signed by almost every nation, Australia needs to release a more ambitious emissions reduction target for 2035 by February.

Mr Dutton has insisted he remains committed to both that and net-zero emissions by 2050, but criticised the need for a more ambitious target for 2035.

“Australians are struggling to pay their power bills and yet the prime minister is wanting to sign us up to an arrangement that’s going to massively increase the price of electricity,” he said. 

Mr Albanese hit back, saying Australia needed to seize new jobs and investment opportunities in green and clean energy as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

This post was originally published on Michael West.