Higher mortgage repayments, rents and other elevated living costs have been dampening spirits and keeping consumer confidence subdued.

The latest survey from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute on Tuesday is unlikely to show much of an improvement in consumer mood, AMP Australia chief economist Shane Oliver said.

“(The consumer sentiment index) is likely to remain weak and could fall again following increased talk of another rate hike, although this may be partly offset by high media coverage around the tax cuts,” he said.

Stronger-than-expected monthly inflation data for May stirred up speculation interest rates might need to stay elevated for longer or even rise further to tackle persistent price pressures.

The latest retail trade numbers were also on the hot side, although the numbers were likely pushed higher by people taking advantage of early financial year sales rather than consumers feeling compelled to splash out.

Dr Oliver was still of the view interest rates had peaked and the next move would be down, namely because the Reserve Bank of Australia “needed to be very wary of doing too much”.

A check-in on the business sector is also expected on Tuesday when the National Australia Bank releases its monthly survey. 

Businesses have been reporting a gradual decline in conditions as the economy slows in response to higher interest rates and global headwinds.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data releases include lending indicators on Monday, the monthly business turnover indicator on Wednesday and overseas arrivals and departures on Friday.

A panel appearance from the RBA’s head of economic research, John Simon, could also contain useful details about the central bank’s view of the economy. 

Mr Simon is scheduled to speak at the Australian Conference of Economists in Adelaide on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock exchange is expected to open mixed on Monday, after Wall Street finished firmer on Friday amid heightened expectations of interest rate cuts as early as September.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67.87 points, or 0.17 per cent, to close at 39,375.87. The S&P 500 gained 30.17 points, or 0.54 per cent, at 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 164.46 points, or 0.90 per cent, to 18,352.76.

US Labor Department data showed US jobs growth slowed marginally in June, and the unemployment rate rose to an over two-and-a-half-year high while wage gains slowed.

Investors expect the data could stir more active debate on rate cuts when the Federal Reserve meets later this month. 

The odds of the US central bank easing in September jumped to 79 per cent, from 66 per cent before the data was released.

The key Australian SPI200 futures contract lost 11 points to 7996 points on the weekend, paving the way for a choppy start to the week as investors mull the potential timing of domestic interest rate cuts.

On Friday, the local bourse ended lower with the  S&P/ASX200 index closing 9.5 points, or 0.12 per cent, lower at 7,822.3, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 9.0 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,070.1.

This post was originally published on Michael West.