With President Joe Biden’s departure from the 2024 race, Republicans are scrambling to recalibrate their electoral strategy, which was premised on the idea that Biden’s unpopularity would sink down-ballot candidates, allowing the GOP to flip control of the Senate. A recent poll out of Nebraska, meanwhile, suggests that at least one Senate assumed to be reliably Republican may be up for grabs. 

In a poll conducted before Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, Dan Osborn, a Nebraska labor leader running as an independent, tied with two-term incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

The poll — commissioned by the Osborn campaign, conducted by Impact Research, and advised by Republican firm Red Wave Strategy Group — shows the Senate candidates tied at 42-42. When respondents were asked how they would vote in the Senate race given an independent versus a Republican, 57 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Trump voters said they were open to voting for an independent.

Statewide, survey respondents said they preferred former President Donald Trump to Biden, 59 to 36. And in parts of the state where the presidential race was tighter, voters showed even more enthusiasm for Osborn. In Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha, Trump led Biden 49-47 in a head-to-head matchup, while Osborn bested Fischer 44-40.

Three of the four independents currently in the Senate caucus with the Democrats, while the fourth, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, is aligned with Democrats for committee purposes. Osborn, for his part, has declined to accept the endorsement of either major party, though many of his policy priorities align with positions traditionally adopted by Democrats. Democratic officials in Nebraska had considered supporting Osborn’s candidacy and did not field a Democratic candidate against him in the primaries. Just one day after the state primaries, Osborn said he would not accept the party’s endorsement, prompting state officials to publish a statement saying Osborn “betrayed” their trust. While the party later said it intended to field a write-in candidate against Osborn and Fischer for the general election, that has not yet happened.

Unlike the 73-year-old Fischer, who has served in politics for more than two decades, Osborn would be a first-time politician. The 48-year-old military veteran is best known as a labor leader. He was the president of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G. Two years ago, Osborn helped lead workers in a strike against food giant Kellogg’s that lasted more than two months and also included factories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Last month, he won the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union.

His platform includes raising pay for service members, confronting agricultural consolidation, and legalizing medical marijuana. He also calls to pass the Protecting the Right to Organize Act and oppose “extreme national measures to ban abortion.” He also urges rail safety reform, including measures like requiring two-person crews and increasing fines for violating rail safety laws — reforms floated after the disastrous Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, last year.

Osborn, who launched his campaign in October, raised $1,035,249 from roughly 31,000 donors in the second quarter of 2024, between April 1 and July 30 — making the average contribution $33. Fischer’s campaign, meanwhile, raised $678,985 over the same period, according to campaign finance reports.

While the state has been a Republican stronghold for years, respondents to the recent poll were not as enthused about Fischer herself did not have as strong a foothold in the recent poll. Her favorability rating was a net negative two, and roughly as many voters said they preferred “someone else” (40 percent) to reelecting Fischer (41 percent). Moreover, 68 percent of respondents said they are open to supporting an independent candidate for Senate, while just 21 percent said they would only support a Republican.

Osborn also led in the poll among those registered with neither party, earning the support of 65 percent of independents, while Fischer got only 16 percent.

Three earlier polls for the race showed mixed results, with a recent survey giving Fischer a significant edge while previous ones showed a much tighter contest.

A poll commissioned by the Fischer campaign earlier this month showed the incumbent beating Osborn by 26 percentage points. More than 75 percent of respondents, however, said they had no opinion of Osborn, didn’t know who he was, or declined to share an opinion of him. Conversely, only 14 percent of respondents did not know who Fischer was. The poll otherwise followed trends, showing Trump beating Biden by 19 points.

A November survey had Osborn leading Fischer by a slim 2 points, with respondents responding more favorably to Osborn’s background than Fischer’s. Another poll conducted in late April showed Osborn trailing Fischer by 4 points, with 30 percent of voters undecided. 

Now as Republicans’ nationwide strategy has been upended by Biden’s exit from the presidential race, the latest poll suggests that the Fischer campaign may have cause for concern as well.

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