With week four of the federal election campaign reduced to just three working days – bookended by Easter Monday and ANZAC Day – campaigning was thrown further off-kilter by the death of Pope Francis, whose passing prompted both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton to suspend scheduled events and attend Mass, with Dutton exposing the selective nature and contradictions of his version of Catholicism.
Almost two million early ballots have been cast in the first week of pre-poll voting, and suggesting that by election day on May 3, nearly half the electorate will have locked in their choice. We explore why this compressed, distraction-heavy calendar amplifies Albanese’s advantage of incumbency while depriving the Coalition campaign – already reeling from three disastrous weeks – of the rhythm challengers need to reset narratives. News Corp’s headlines effectively blamed a deceased pope for “ruining” Peter Dutton’s run, but the Opposition leader did plenty of self-sabotage, doubling down on a headline-grabbing $21 billion defence budget surge, pledging to unwind the 20 per cent HECS discount and axe EV subsidies to pay for more F-35 jet fighters, and floating citizenship-test questions on antisemitism alongside visa vetting for Palestinians – hard-edged culture-war proposals unlikely to sway mortgage-stressed suburban swing voters more worried about energy bills than a new batch of shiny frigates to fight against imaginary enemies.
Against the noise of a relentlessly hyped cost-of-living crisis, we drill into the numbers mainstream media prefer to ignore: inflation is back to 2.4 per cent, wage growth at a post-GFC high of 3.2 per cent, retail turnover up 8 per cent since May 2022, and outbound travel already at 95 per cent of pre-COVID levels. The disconnect? Soaring mortgage repayments and rents hammer low-income households while wealthier cohorts complain loudest – and get the biggest policy carrots – leaving JobSeeker recipients, the NDIS, youth unemployment, homelessness, and Indigenous communities sidelined. We highlight how both major parties chase aspirational middle-class votes yet dodge structural fixes like raising JobSeeker, investing in public housing, or tackling tax concessions that widen inequality.
We also analyse the Nine/Fairfax Great Debate, where Dutton’s fleeting “soft side” briefly emerged before his trademark pugilism returned, and explain why a late-cycle spike in debate performance rarely moves the dial when a tenth of voters have already voted and millions more will tick ballot papers before the next sound bite. New Morgan, YouGov, and Newspoll surveys put Labor ahead 55–45 in two-party-preferred terms – numbers that are identical to 2022 – prompting the real question: will it be a Labor majority government or Labor minority propped up by Teals and Greens? Finally, we list the elephant-in-the-room issues both parties studiously ignore – climate change, women’s safety, Gaza, NDIS sustainability – arguing that uninspired politics thrives when media rewards spectacle over substance.
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Song listing:
- ‘Good Stuff’, The B-52s.
- ‘Godless’, The Dandy Warhols.
- ‘Feels Right’, Biig Piig.
- ‘Let Me Entertain You’, Robbie Williams.
- ‘The Hard Road’, Hilltop Hoods.
- ‘Humiliation’, The National.
Music interludes:
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