As new details of the Government’s Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) reforms emerge, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) outlines what MPs would be supporting if they vote for the Bill at Second Reading on Tuesday 1 July – even with Labour’s concessions.

Ahead of the crucial vote, JRF Senior Policy Adviser Iain Porter said:

MPs who choose to walk through the lobby and support this Bill, even with concessions, are paving the way for at least 150,000 people to be pulled into poverty and many more after them.

People who need help eating, going to the toilet, washing and dressing themselves will lose access to the benefit designed to support their independence.

1. At least 150,000 more people will be in poverty by the end of this Parliament

The Government admits, even after concessions, an extra 150,000 people at least will be pulled into poverty in its latest impact assessment. This will include children even if the exact number is statistically difficult to determine.

2. Some people spared future DWP cuts won’t benefit from standard allowance increase

The Government has confirmed the standard allowance of DWP Universal Credit will increase above inflation for the next four years, but this won’t benefit people currently claiming the additional health element, or new claimants with severe conditions, even if that’s protected for now.

The Government confirmed that the combined real-terms value of the health element of Universal Credit and the standard allowance will be protected. Combining them means people claiming both will see a real-terms cut to their health element to offset an above-inflation increase to their standard allowance.

This means we now know the Government’s concessions are worth about £600 million less than most people understood when originally reported last week.

3. From next Spring, new claimants will be thousands of pounds worse off than existing claimants

Someone who needs help washing or dressing themselves now may get more support than someone who needs the same help next year.

From November 2026, people who score at least 8 points in their DWP PIP assessment but who do not score at least 4 points in any daily living activity will receive £4,500 less on average by 2029/30 than someone with the same score today.

From April 2026, people who start a new claim for Universal Credit Health will get around £50 a week less than someone claiming it now, about £3,000 less on average by 2029/30 over a year.

PIP will be cut for more than 400,000 disabled people by 2029/30. By the same year, Universal Credit will be cut for more than 700,000 people who are disabled or have a long-term health condition. These numbers will only increase in the years to follow.

4. DWP PIP assessment review could be limited

The Government has agreed to co-produce a review of the DWP PIP assessment process with disabled people after this Bill is passed to come up with a better system. MPs won’t know what this review recommends before voting for the Bill at Second Reading.

The terms of reference that we saw today confirm that its purpose is not to generate proposals for “further savings”. But this implies that the current cuts are considered accepted, and the arbitrary new ‘4-point rule’ cutting PIP eligibility will remain in the Bill that MPs will be asked to vote for.

5. Jobs aren’t available for people who lose out through cuts

The concessions don’t change the fact that, when you include health-related Universal Credit, there are, on average, seven people not in work and claiming UC for every advertised job vacancy.

The OBR’s assessment of how many people will join the workforce as a result of these cuts won’t be published until the Autumn, after MPs have voted. Another anticipated review by Sir Charlie Mayfield also won’t be published until after the vote.

There is growing evidence few people will actually find employment. The Learning and Work Institute and the Resolution Foundation previously estimated that up to 105,000 people will find work owing to the Government’s package of cuts and employment support– just 3% of those affected by the original cuts package – and we would not expect the recent concessions to change this significantly.

Positive things about the wider DWP plans remain

The Right to Try Guarantee (for which draft regulations have been published today) is a good example of some of the positive aspects of the wider green paper changes that have been overshadowed by the scale of the accompanying cuts. Other positive elements are the increase to the standard allowance and bringing forward employment support.

But it should be perfectly possible to approve positive changes like this without also passing the damaging cuts contained in this Bill.

Featured image via the Canary

By Steve Topple

This post was originally published on Canary.