The tragedy unfolding in Central Texas is stark. As of writing, over 100 are dead or missing — the majority from Kerr County, including 27 children and counselors from a nearby summer camp. As search efforts continue, that death toll is likely to rise.

In a July 5 press conference on the flooding, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott spent the majority of the time thanking each other and the president for the emergency response efforts. The president approved a disaster declaration on Sunday,  and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released a press release yet again praising Trump and promising help to survivors. But the administration appears reluctant to acknowledge that these fatalities could have been entirely avoided with greater federal investment in mitigation and emergency management. In fact, the administration has proactively dismantled the very programs and resources that could have helped to prevent a disaster like this. Once more, a vast chasm separates the administration’s rhetoric from reality.

Even if the administration doesn’t want to discuss the effects of its cuts on weather and emergency management services, the media have picked up the story. One  New York Times piece points squarely at National Weather Service staffing shortages, specifically “the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.” The article noted several vacant positions at the NWS San Angelo office, which oversees some areas that were inundated by last week’s flooding. As CEPR has noted previously, this is the tip of the iceberg. Since the beginning of the year, Trump reduced NWS’ staff by 10 percent, resulting in over 550 lost employees. Additionally, layoffs and buyouts have led to an approximately 20 percent reduction in staff at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Then there’s FEMA. The extent of the help FEMA can actually provide remains unknown, as the administration has eliminated roughly one-third of the agency’s staff, approximately 2,000 full-time employees, through either termination or voluntary resignation. Trump and Noem have made it an open secret that the administration hopes to eliminate the agency.  So far, no federal funding obligations have been designated, as FEMA must work with local and state governments to determine the damage. It’ll be worth tracking whether that assistance comes more in the form of federal dollars than resources and support.

Which leads to the issue of the disaster declaration itself. The administration moved quickly to support Republican-leaning areas of Texas, raising questions as to why other states experiencing similar situations have faced delays and difficulties in obtaining federal assistance. Before his inauguration, Trump made many threats to blue-leaning states about withholding federal aid unless they met specific criteria, and he has kept that promise, especially in California. The politicization of federal assistance under Trump has even led to uncertainty in Republican-leaning districts and states. It’s becoming clear that only those who have the ear of the president have a shot at assistance.

Along with the Los Angeles fires, this disaster is a canary in the coal mine for what the country will look like under a smaller, less active federal government, and states are not prepared. The federal government should be assisting in mitigation funding and planning, expanding resources for agencies that track inclement weather, and investing in the science and technology that can prevent deaths like those in Texas. Many areas lacked early warning systems, which isn’t even a new technology.

Rather, the Trump administration has prioritized shifting gains toward the wealthiest one percent of the country, leaving working class families to bear the financial burden of more expensive healthcare and goods. The next time a politician stands up and says, “Nobody could have seen this coming,” they should be reminded that the country has been aware of this issue since August 2005, and we’re still wondering why nothing is being done.

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