Israeli military data suggests 83% of those killed in Gaza are civilians. And conflict data experts say the civilian death rate has only been higher on three occasions. Two of these are the genocides in Bosnia and Rwanda – among the worst crimes in the 20th Century.

The investigation led by +972 magazine analysed a secret Israeli intelligence database used to count militant deaths. The figures contradict official Israel claims by a  “huge margin”. +972 says Israel usually claims a 1:1 or 2:1 margin of civilians deaths to combatant deaths:

Instead, the classified data backs up the findings of several studies suggesting Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has killed civilians at a rate with few parallels in modern warfare.

Authoritative tally

+972 said the Israeli military has confirmed the database exists. Insider sources have further confirmed Israeli authorities view the data as accurate:

Multiple intelligence sources familiar with the database said the army views it as the only authoritative tally of militant casualty figures.

One source reportedly said: “There’s no other place to check.”

Reporting from 2023 revealed that the Israeli’s consider 100 civilians deaths an acceptable cost for the death of one senior Hamas commander, for example.

Unusually high

The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) assesses civilian deaths from conflict. A UCDP assessment of the data suggests that 44,100 civilians were killed by Israel, while 8, 900 militant were killed.

UCDP researcher Therese Pettersson told +972:

That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time.

She added that it is possible to find similar civilian casualty ratios when singling out a particular city or battle within a broader conflict, but “very rarely” when looking at a war as a whole.

Pettersson said:

In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in the genocides in Srebrenica (1992-95) and Rwanda (1994) and during Russia’s three-month siege of Mariupol (2022)…

Meanwhile, an expert body has declared famine in Gaza City – just as Israeli military is preparing from a new offensive there.

Israel’s famine in Gaza City

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a world-leading authority on food crisis. On Friday, the IPC declared Gaza City was in a state of famine. Numerous agencies have warned that famine was coming in recent months. Some argue Israel is deliberately pushing Gaza into famine.

Israel is currently preparing a big military operation to take and hold Gaza City.

According to Associated Press, the IPC requires three specific conditions are met to declare a famine:

At least 20% of households have an extreme lack of food, or are essentially starving. At least 30% of children 6 months to 5 years old suffer from acute malnutrition or wasting, meaning they’re too thin for their height. And at least two people, or four children under 5, per 10,000 are dying daily due to starvation or the interaction of malnutrition and disease.

Israeli-imposed restrictions make accurate reporting extremely difficult. But the IPC believes the conditions have been met:

The data analyzed between July 1 and Aug. 15 showed clear evidence that thresholds for starvation and acute malnutrition have been reached. Gathering data for mortality has been harder, but the IPC said it is reasonable to conclude from the evidence that the necessary threshold has likely been reached.

As expected, the Israeli government says famine claims are Hamas propaganda.

Featured image via the Canary

By Joe Glenton

This post was originally published on Canary.