A draft of the latest National Defense Strategy (NDS) was leaked to Politico (09/5/2025). If implemented, the plan proposes pivoting away from China and prioritizing the protection of the homeland and the Western Hemisphere. The speed of this radical pivot away from China is astonishing, and its impact enormously consequential. It’s also confounding as its author is none other than Elbridge Colby, the current Deputy Secretary of War. It was Colby who co-wrote the 2018 NDS, which unequivocally focused on deterring China, earning him praise from neocons in both political parties. Colby, grandson of former CIA Director William Colby, followed this up with a highly influential book, Strategy of Denial (Yale University Press, 2021), in which he advocated for shifting the U.S. focus toward China and away from Europe and the Middle East. His fear-mongering reached fever pitch when he wrote that “If China succeeds, we can forget about housing, food, savings, affordable college for our kids, and other domestic needs.” This amplified what happened back on November 17, 2011, when former President Barack Obama announced his “Pivot” or “rebalance” to China. Years of warnings about “The China Threat” followed — until last week.

Why did this belligerent, “China Hawks’ China Hawk” and those within his circle dramatically change course? It’s plausible that they are choosing to conform to Trump and J.D. Vance’s “America First” agenda (and keep their jobs). It’s also likely — and this is my hope — that influential members of the national security state finally concluded that the U.S. global empire is extremely overextended, in inexorable decline, and no longer financially sustainable. China is being considered a peer power and has conceded its own sphere of influence.

Concurrently, many neoconservatives in both political parties have lamentably realized that their acknowledged proxy war in Ukraine against Russia has, in all essentials, failed. The fighting will go on for a time, but Russia has won, and Trump knows it. With Trump’s dramatic new policy, we can also expect the gradual withdrawal of some 80,000 troops from Europe and the closing of many of the 750+ military bases across the globe, including hundreds surrounding China. All available evidence suggests that the U.S. unipolar moment is over and a new era is unfolding. This is welcome news for most people around the globe, and it also helps to avoid a possible war between the U.S and China.

However, for those in the Western Hemisphere, NDS 2025 means that under the guise of democracy promotion and fighting “narco-terrorism,” we can expect accelerated efforts at “regime change” in Latin America — starting with Venezuela — to secure favorable conditions for U.S. corporations. Beyond that, the phrase “protecting the homeland” has an ominous ring. Protection from whom? Former CIA analyst Melvin Goodman argues that the Department of Homeland Security is “the ideal authoritarian tool” and the tool Trump will use against all left protesters. I fear “Making America Safe Again” will not stop with “border emergencies” and deportations but give rise to increasingly authoritarian rule.

Depending on the degree of public opposition, I would not rule out Trump declaring a national emergency and martial law. On his Truth Social account, Trump wrote, “I love the smell of deportations in the morning…’ Chicago about to find out why it’s called the Department of War,” alluding to Francis Ford Coppola’s 1979 film “Apocalypse Now” where Robert Duvall’s character says, “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.” The text reads “Chipocolypse Now.” Trump has mentioned sending federal authorities to Portland, Oregon, to “wipe ‘em out,” meaning protestors. Will he also “love the smell of pepper spray in the evening used on peaceful protestors?”

In an interview with “Fox and Friends,” Trump  tried to make the case that the “radical left” was behind most political violence in the country, saying, “We have radical left lunatics out there and we just have to beat the hell out of them.” And even before learning that Tyler Robinson was arrested for the murder of Charlie Kirk, Trump said, “The radicals on the left are the problem, they’re vicious and they’re horrible and they’re political savvy.” There is every reason to believe that Trump will weaponize Kirk’s killing to demonize and repress the left in the “homeland.”

Finally, I’m thinking here of the “Reichstag moment” (February 17, 1933) when the German parliament building (the Reichstag) was set ablaze and the Nazi regime, led by Hitler, blamed it on Communists. He used it as a pretext to suspend traditional democratic rights, claim emergency power, and begin eliminating opponents — all on behalf of protecting the German “homeland.” How far are we from such a moment? Our political leaders have already capitulated to Trump, and it remains to be seen how the rest of us will respond if the danger continues to escalate.