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Scandal-struck Reform are sliding back down the polls

The next UK election is not due until 2029, and yet many have treated Reform’s recent dominance as if it were baked in. Increasingly, though, it looks like Reform are struggling to hold on to the lead they’ve enjoyed for several months:

It’s almost like the more people see of Reform the less they like them.

The poll truth

With YouGov, Reform have hit highs of 29% throughout 2025:

Poll showing Reform at 29% in September

It isn’t just YouGov which have Reform on a downward trajectory either:

For a party to achieve a majority, they need 326 seats. If the Opinium poll reflected the 2029 outcome, Reform would have that; if it was one of the other two, they’d need to form a government with another party. While we’re sure they’d have no problems crawling into bed with the Tories, it wouldn’t reflect well on the anti-establishment party to immediately shack up with the establishment.

Of course, all this would depend on Reform maintaining their polling position, which they realistically might not. The way things are going, we could end up with five parties all polling in the high teens and if that happens, all manner of coalition options would be on the table.

The pressing question is how are Reform managing to squander their lead?

The end is Nigel

For most of 2025, voters have been turning against Labour due to Keir Starmer’s litany of failures. Since voters haven’t forgotten about the 14 years of Tory mismanagement which preceded Starmer, the main beneficiary of Labour’s collapse has been Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Devoid of ideas of their own, Labour tried to claw back support by mimicking their opponents. This didn’t work, of course. Whenever a centrist party attempts to shift right, it reinforces the impression that their so-called rivals are two steps ahead, prompting voters to vote for them instead.

As a result of their poll lead, Reform have received a lot more attention. The problem is that Reform is riddled with freaks, ex-Tories, and a guy who took money to push pro-Russian propaganda.

Here are just some of the PR nightmares that Reform have had in recent months:

Real alternatives

The focus on Reform isn’t the only shift in the polls. The Green Party has significantly increased its presence, at Reform’s expense.

To varying degrees, Farage’s supporters are voting Reform because they’re not Labour or the Tories. This makes Reform vulnerable to populist-leaning parties, such as the Greens and Your Party, offering bold plans to tackle inequality at the root.

Reform know this, too, which is why they’re now attacking Zack Polanski as much as Keir Starmer:

Of course, a lot will happen between now and 2029, but it’s worthwhile acknowledging Reform’s weaknesses, if only to discourage those politicians who think that mimicking Nigel Farage will pave the path to victory.

Featured image via Steve Bowbrick (Flickr)

By Willem Moore

This post was originally published on Canary.