The war in Sudan continues unabated, entering its third year with foreign actors like UAE fuelling the violence. Experts now fear the conflict could spill into neighbouring countries.

The war started in April 2023. By 2026, it has entered its third year, with that grim anniversary fast approaching. Fought between the Sudanese government and the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the war has numerous foreign backers, on all sides.

The human cost is epic according to figures. Some estimates put the death toll at 150,000 and the number of displaced people at over 10mn.

The United Nations (UN) said on 13 January:

South Sudan is one of the most complex humanitarian crises in the world as conflict, climate shocks, disease outbreaks, deepening economic challenges – and the spillover from the war in neighbouring Sudan – continue to drive needs.

They added:

It is estimated that 10 million people, roughly two-thirds of the population, will need humanitarian aid in 2026, with over 600,000 refugees among them.

More than 7.5 million people are projected to face food insecurity during the lean season from April to July.

These chilling statistics haven’t stopped regional and global powers pursuing their own interests though local paramilitary and state forces.

UAE still pouring fuel on the flames

The UAE is a major contributor to the horror. That’s the same UAE which is a major recipient of UK arms. Middle East Eye recently published an investigation into its role in Sudan.

On 21 January the outlet reporting having tracked a UAE plane linked to weapons shipments to UAE-backed fighters in Sudan making:

a number of flights in recent days between military bases in Abu Dhabi, Israel, Bahrain and Ethiopia

The purpose of those flights is “unclear” but:

they have taken place against the backdrop of a spiralling power struggle between the UAE and Saudi Arabia across Yemen and the Horn of Africa that has upturned the geopolitics of the region and prompted concerns of a new escalation in the Sudan war.

The large-lift Antonov cargo plane made various stops including in Israel, Abu Dhabi and an Ethiopian airbase linked to RSF in late December and into mid-January. Ethiopia is also reportedly backing RSF in region. The aircraft in question, according to Middle East Eye, is also reportedly owned by UAE’s crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed — described as the ultimate beneficiary. The Canary has also written about Israeli involvement in the war here.

Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL), said:

Evidence that an An-124, given the significant cargo capacity of this particular airframe, has been making repeated sorties between Abu Dhabi and this airfield near an area seeing increased uptick in RSF presence and operations should be of global concern.

And now there’s a palpable fear that the war could spread across the wider region.

Grim portents at Davos

The UN high commissioner for refugees, Barham Salih, has warned that the war in Sudan could not be contained with in its border.

On the sidelines of Davos, he added that:

This conflict could have been avoided or contained in its early stages if a unified international effort had been made.

David Miliband, the former UK foreign minister who allegedly oversaw War on terror-era rendition and torture, was also present as a humanitarian. Perhaps jarringly given his track record, he said:

the war in Sudan is linked to impunity, and that the only way to address this is through the use of force.

He seemed determined to see a military intervention:

He pointed to the profits reaped by those involved in the war, thus necessitating a counterforce. He called for the punishment of those participating in and benefiting from the war, not only within Sudan but also abroad.

The anniversary of the Sudan war is fast approaching. And the conflict seems to be spiralling out of control. At the centre of the catastrophe, a UK ally and arms customer, UAE — among other foreign actors — are still wrestling for control, apparently indifferent to the horrors they are inflicting.

Featured image via the Canary

By Joe Glenton

This post was originally published on Canary.