This weekend, Kyrgyzstan’s voters filed into polling stations to vote simultaneously for local legislatures and in a referendum on proposed changes to the constitution. Despite an incredibly low threshold set by authorities – only 30% of eligible voters were required for the results to be valid – preliminary data points to a potentially serious crisis in legitimacy for Kyrgyzstan’s new president Sadyr Japarov.
As of Tuesday 13 April, the Central Election Committee was reporting abysmally low turnout figures. For local legislatures, 30.89% of the electorate participated, in particular for city legislatures, including for the coveted capital, Bishkek, the seats of which were chosen by only 25.89 percent of those eligible to vote. On the constitutional changes, approximately 40% voted, of which roughly 80% were in favour of the proposed changes. For context, that would mean approximately 1.1 million people out of a nation of six million have opted to make Sadyr Japarov the most powerful president since Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Kyrgyzstan’s second and most infamous leader, who was ousted in an uprising almost 11 years ago to the day.
Parliamentary elections held last October erupted in yet another national uprising – Kyrgyzstan’s fifth since independence in 1991, including a failed revolt in August 2019 led by former president Almazbek Atambayev. In October, rioters succeeded in toppling the government of Sooronbai Jeenbekov, propelling Japarov from a prison cell – where he was serving a long sentence for kidnapping – to the presidency in the space of a few days. These events seemingly caught everyone by surprise, even Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s chief patron and, in the opinion of many people, puppeteer.
Today, one thing is clear: both supporters and opponents of the new president and constitution should fear these election results. Although turnout for Kyrgyzstan’s many elections has been steadily declining over the past decade, even dipping below 50% since the last constitutional referendum in 2016, this year has seen historic lows. A measly 39.12% of the electorate participated in polls held this past January, during which Japarov was elected president. At best, these figures signal disenchantment; at worst, they reveal enormous discontent.
No checks and balances
A varied assortment of parties vied for more than 8,000 legislative seats in 448 municipalities in this recent race. Under Kyrgyzstan’s forthcoming constitution, city mayors will be appointed by the president. Despite this general lack of autonomy, many parties have been hoping to ensconce themselves in local legislatures for long-term gain.
The fight over Bishkek, which is home to more than a million people, was particularly intense. According to political analyst Aidar Raev, the capital is “pivotal”. “In theory, whoever can control this city can influence the national government regardless of the constitutional design,” Raev said.
This post was originally published on Radio Free.