The beginning of President-elect Donald Trump 2.0 has started with a chaos that is more sinister than President Trump 1.0. This time around he seems better prepared; this time there are fewer guardrails. Moreover, while there are evident reasons to follow his machinations domestically, there are also international implications to his victory and control of Congress. Trump’s internal political domination and the continuing domestic polarization within the U.S. foretells a growing international lack of confidence in the United States.

What does this developing lack of confidence in the U.S. mean for the international system?

All systems search for equilibrium; the international political system is no different. Countries look for a stabile equilibrium, what is often referred to as global order. The lack of clear American leadership, now exemplified by President-elect Trump’s “America First” as well as his recent bizarre cabinet choices, is adding to challenges to the U.S.-led 1945 order and encouraging new powers and alliances.

Here are four brief descriptions of how that vacuum is being filled.

China’s Belt and Silk Road is a global $8 trillion infrastructure strategy started by President Xi Jinping in 2013. What started as a plan to link East Asia and Europe has now expanded to Africa, Oceania and Latin America. China’s strategy continues to gain African support. As former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Hank Cohen noted: “China’s cultivation of strong ties with African nations is also something the US should take seriously. In exchange for their economic support and trade relations, China has gained African allies in the U.N. General Assembly…An excellent example is the lack of action by the U.N. on Chinese repression of the minority Uyghur Muslim population. Voting at the United Nations General Assembly on the Uyghur issue has seen African delegations either vote no or abstain.” During his four years as President, Joe Biden never visited Africa.

China and Russia have historic friction over their long border and other issues. Russia’s and China’s antipathy towards the United States has resulted in their closer relations. The historic U.S. position of playing one against the other has failed. As Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland wrote: “Since Xi came to power, he and Putin have met on forty-two different occasions, far more visits than the Chinese president has had with other world leaders.” In addition to their personal rapprochement, the authors note that beyond military and economic cooperation, “China and Russia also coordinate within and across international institutions to challenge the norms of the U.S.-led world order,” they added. This would include the developing BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) institution.

On November 12, the Associated Press (AP) reported that “North Korea ratified a major defense treaty with Russia stipulating mutual military aid, ….It is considered both countries’ biggest defense deal since the end of the Cold War.” So not only has North Korea sent troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, but the treaty implies strengthened cooperation. “The treaty requires both countries to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked,” AP reported. “It also calls for the two countries to actively cooperate in efforts to establish a ‘just and multipolar new world order’ and strengthen cooperation on various sectors including peaceful atomic energy, space, food supply, trade and economy.” In a dire warning, AP added, “Possible Russian transfer of sensitive technology to enhance North Korea’s already-advancing nuclear and missile programs would be an alarming development for the U.S. and its allies.”

Russia and North Korea cooperating on nuclear and missile programs is certainly of concern for North Korea’s neighbors South Korea and Japan, but it also represents a direct threat to United States security.

Finally, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had strained diplomatic relations because of religious differences as well as a regional leadership competition. After a seven-year rift, the two countries re-established diplomatic ties in 2023 mediated by China. As Professor Stephen Walt wrote in Foreign Policy at the time of the relative importance of the re-establishment of relations between the two and the negative consequences for the United States: “The détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran—with China playing a facilitating role—is not as momentous as Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, Anwar Sadat’s trip to Jerusalem in 1977, or the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Even so, if the agreement sticks, it’s a pretty big deal. Most importantly, it is a wake-up call for the Biden administration and the rest of the United States’ foreign-policy establishment, because it exposes the self-imposed handicaps that have long crippled U.S. Middle East policy. It also highlights how China is attempting to present itself as a force for peace in the world, a mantle that the United States has largely abandoned in recent years.”

These four examples show how there are international consequences behind “America First” beyond Trump’s threats to American democracy. His planned chaos has global repercussions. Trump is human resources intensive; he takes the oxygen out of wherever he goes and whatever he does. His recent bizarre cabinet nominees are a distraction from a comprehensive analysis of international politics as a system. Trump’s “America First” is part of a larger shift away from U.S. leadership and the international system’s equilibrium.

So while it is fascinating to observe and important try to counter his “creative destruction,” the far-reaching consequences of America’s declining position in the world should not be ignored. In the absence of American leadership, other actors are filling the vacuum to establish a new and very different equilibrium.

The post Trump and Consequences appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

This post was originally published on CounterPunch.org.