In this extended episode of New Politics, we unpack the historic 2025 federal election, which delivered one of the most extraordinary victories for the Labor Party in modern political history. With Anthony Albanese securing a second term as Prime Minister, Labor surged to an unprecedented seat count – between 90 and 92 seats – and recorded a near 3 per cent swing towards it, defying nearly a century of political convention that dictates first-term governments always lose seats.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote reached around 55 per cent, a staggering endorsement of its first-term performance and future agenda. While commentators dismissed the campaign as uninspiring, the result will be remembered as a generational shift in Australian politics – Labor’s strongest electoral performance since John Curtin in 1943 and a clear rejection of the toxic right-wing culture wars that have dominated political discourse for decades.
We examine how Labor swept the nation’s inner-city electorates – from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobart – breaking long-standing barriers in historically conservative strongholds. It wasn’t just a win; it was a political realignment, made possible by a disciplined Labor campaign and a woefully underprepared Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, who became the first federal Opposition Leader in Australian history to lose his own seat. The Liberal Party recorded its worst result on almost every measure: its lowest primary vote, worst two-party-preferred vote, and a catastrophic collapse in metropolitan areas.
We also assess what this result means for the future of Australian politics. With a commanding lower house majority and a favourable Senate requiring only Greens support for legislation, the Albanese government holds immense political capital – but will it spend it? Labor campaigned cautiously, but this landslide win provides an unmatched opportunity to pursue progressive reform across housing, tax, higher education, Medicare, and environmental regulation. It’s a moment to leave behind the incrementalism of the first term and build a genuine social democratic legacy. However, there is a note of caution – John Howard’s overreach after 2004 is there as a reminder of what not to do. The key for Labor is to use this political power wisely, to not just defend the business as usual approach, but to shape it with bold and strategic reform.
We also analyse the losses suffered by the Australian Greens, who were pushed out of three of their four lower house seats, including Adam Bandt in Melbourne, with swings of up to four per cent against them. Although they retained all their Senate spots and will again hold the balance of power, questions remain over their political tactics, especially their obstructionist approach to housing policy. We argue it’s time for the Greens to adopt a more strategic, cooperative model if they hope to hold onto relevance in an era of strong Labor ascendancy.
Meanwhile, the community independents maintained a solid showing, retaining most of their seats but failing to replicate their 2022 wave. While Allegra Spender, Zali Steggall, Helen Haines, and others held on, high-profile contests such Goldstein slipped back into Liberal hands. The Muslim Vote candidates showed early signs of future potential, with independents securing strong primary results across several seats, even if no victories were recorded this time around.
This election was not just a change of government moment like 2022 – it was a change of politics moment. It’s the culmination of a political evolution that started under Morrison’s chaotic leadership and ended with the disintegration of Dutton’s opposition. The mainstream media’s influence is waning, the conservative playbook is obsolete, and the Labor government has the clearest runway for reform seen in a generation. From here, we explore the road ahead – how Labor can use this golden window to implement transformative policy, and how the Liberal Party might claw its way back from electoral irrelevance.
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