On their own they may not amount to a hill of beans. But grouped together, they provide some food for thought. Various incidents have taken place in a condensed period of time that at the very least are increasing tension and carry within them the seeds of conflict.  

A review by Washington of its multi-billion dollar submarine deal with the United Kingdom and Australia has been dismissed by London and Canberra as “routine”. They claim it is normal for a new ‘America First’ administration to review the multi-billion dollar submarine deal. But Beijing may be onto something when they suggest it shows a fraying relationship among western allies.  

Money seems to be at the heart of it. Both Australia and the UK face pressure from the White House to lift military spending. London is making the right noises and boosting its defense budget but Canberra is signaling its resistance.   

By 2028 the UK has pledged to spend 2.5 percent of GDP on its defence and 3 percent by the next parliament. Australia has been less specific. While it said it will increase its budget it gave no details of by how much. The US is pressing for 3.5 percent.  

With almost comedic timing, China is flexing its maritime muscles. For the first time, Beijing sent two aircraft carriers on simultaneous operations in the Pacific. This according to Taiwan Defence Minister Wellington Koo was a clear political message about the country’s “expansionist” aims. He’s right but Beijing is shrugging its shoulders.   

Japan is not shrugging its shoulders. Its defence minister highlighted that the carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, were operating in separate areas of the Pacific on Saturday, near remote southern islands belonging to Japan.He said the carriers signified Beijing’s intention to deploy its armed forces beyond its borders. Indeed, a Chinese J-15 warplane from the aircraft carrier Shandong flew as close as 45 meters to the MSDF P-3C patrol plane at the same altitude on Saturday. Two military rivals getting up close and personal is not a good scenario.   

The sound of sabers being rattled could be heard after US military bases in the Gulf were threatened by Iran’s defence minister. Aziz Nasirzadeh said Iran would hit US military bases if conflict breaks out with the United States. This followed US President Donald Trump saying he was losing confidence that a nuclear deal would be agreed.  

Washington and Tehran have held five rounds of talks since April as Trump seeks an agreement that would place constraints on Iran’s uranium enrichment. He has threatened to attack Iran if no deal can be agreed.   

Loose talk? Probably. But the US State Department approved the evacuation of non-essential personnel in Iraq and the Pentagon green-lighted the departure of military family members across the Middle East.   

Much ado about nothing? Not when the stakes are this high. After all, technically Israel and Iran have launched missiles against each other in October 2024. It may have resembled shadow boxing more than precision strikes but it was still a pivotal moment.  

China is waiting in the wings. The People’s Liberation Army will celebrate its 100^th  anniversary in 2027. It gives the appearance of biding its time. A tense international situation shifts focus away from Taiwan.  

It may well be that global tensions ease but it could be that a menu of mayhem is being prepared.

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