Ed Davey is the Frodo Baggins of UK politics. Understated and from the Shires, he’s been chosen for a quest to save British democracy, if only he realised. The creation of Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s new ‘as yet untitled, don’t call me by your name’ party will split the Left’s vote further, potentially handing the keys of Number 10 to Reform. Prime Minister Nigel Farage – or Sauron – would pose an existential threat to the UK. Davey has a responsibility to stand in his way. A Lib Dem alliance with Labour would do it.
Reform’s surging popularity is frightening. The poll of polls currently puts them at 28-30%, at least six clear of Labour and 11 of the Conservatives. Anything can change, of course. We could be four years out from an election. But the very prospect of a Farage government should keep sensible Brits awake at night.
Liz Truss’ mini-Budget would pale in insignificance compared to Reform’s fiscal commitments, their policy of returning all small boats to France would amount to a seaborne invasion of our closest ally, and they have vowed to crush our renewable energy sector.
Reform must be stopped, and Labour isn’t up to the job.
Starmer is wrong to underestimate Corbyn and Sultana
Keir Starmer won power by promising “change” but has shown himself to be incapable of delivering it. Unforced political errors like the Winter Fuel Allowance aside, Starmer’s first year in government is notable more for what hasn’t happened.
Watered down planning reform is now worthless; we won’t get the homes and infrastructure we need. A functional NHS remains a pipedream. Despite talk of “smashing the gangs” and a deal with France, illegal immigration will continue to anger the right wing, unabated. All the while, growth forecasts are downgraded, and we pay more on debt interest than defence. Reform voters are restless.
Corbyn and Sultana’s new party make matters worse. Labour’s left flank has long been dissatisfied with Starmer’s leadership, whether it be his anti-immigration “island of strangers” speech, attempts to reduce welfare, or hesitancy to support Palestine. The Greens were always an imperfect replacement. This new party makes defection easier.
Starmer would also be wrong to underestimate the 76-year-old’s enduring cult of personality. Polling suggests that Corbyn and Sultana’s party could win the most votes of 18–24-year-olds (and likely also 16–18-year-olds). The viciousness of the Green Party leadership election shows how the Left fights itself rather than the Right, to the benefit of the latter.
Volatility
This volatility is symptomatic of the breakdown of the two-party system. As critics of First Past the Post since inception, many Lib Dems will welcome this moment. But they must recognise that it will be Farage, not them, who stands to benefit; a man with a fickle attachment to both liberalism and democracy, and whose leadership would be detrimental to Britain.
All parties have a responsibility to stop him. The Conservatives must switch to Robert Jenrick in November, for example, no matter how queasy that makes some in the party. But with Corbyn, Sultana, and the Greens more interested in scoring moral purity points, it’s Davey’s responsibility to unite the Left and prevent catastrophe.
Davey can’t hold Farage to account singlehandedly, as he is currently attempting to. His accusation that Reform’s policies don’t hold water in a recent BBC interview will easily be dismissed by Farage, who could accuse him of the same.
Mr. Tumble antics aside, Davey’s party similarly promises unfunded spending and still has a surprisingly weak proposal on social care, despite making it their flagship policy. But more fundamentally, polling at 14%, the Lib Dems simply don’t have the electoral heft. They must combine with Labour.
Enter the Lib Dems
A Lib Dem-Lab alliance could take several forms. An official merger pitched to keep Farage out of Number 10 would be a gamble. Some would be motivated by a last-ditch attempt to save Britain; others would see it as the establishment combining to stop the only man who can. Long-time supporters at the fringes of either party may also be alienated, and you’d risk bleeding vital votes. The transparency of a merger would carry more legitimacy, however.
More covert would be an informal voting pact, aimed at creating a Labour-led coalition post-election. Beyond tacit agreements not to campaign in the same constituencies, Labour and the Lib Dems should create targeted platforms to capture different parts of the electorate. This will take time. There is no time to wait. A pact could backfire, however. If a backroom deal keeps Reform out of government despite having the most seats, many will cry foul.
It’s ironic that a party predisposed to wishy-washy fence-sitting has the responsibility to act decisively to save Britain from the spectre of Farage. But fate often chooses the unassuming to be heroes.
Davey must hold his nose and support a failing Labour government in the next election on the condition that Starmer embraces proportional representation immediately afterwards. Reform will then never command a majority, even if they are the largest party. The ring will have been destroyed.
Featured image via the Canary
By Ben Cope
This post was originally published on Canary.