Belém Brazil: How the Equatorial Margin Shapes COP30 Discussions on Energy Transition
In November, COP30 will be hosted in Belém, Brazil, a city of great environmental significance in the lower Amazon rainforest. This will be the first time the country hosts the conference, placing Brazil —an economic powerhouse, home to vital ecosystems, and a strong advocate for energy transition, sustainability and indigenous rights— at the center of global attention. The event’s relevance will amplify discussions, from media and journalists providing reports and analysis to Latin American CSR communication experts translating complex debates into clear, actionable messages and initiatives.
Given its context, one of the key controversies that will gain prominence during the conference will be the Brazilian government’s plans for oil exploration on the Equatorial Margin, situated just off the coast of Belém, Brazil. The city is situated in the Marajó Bay, which is a key feature of this important coastal region.
A heated debate is expected to surround the topic, as it highlights a contradiction in Brazil’s energy transition and sustainability ambitions: how can a country that raises these flags also plan to extract massive volumes of petroleum right next to the Amazon rainforest, one of the most iconic natural landmarks on the planet?
The Equatorial Margin: A Region in the Spotlight
The Equatorial Margin refers to a coastal region in Northern Brazil, approximately 2,200 km long, located near the Equator —hence its name, referencing its geographical location. The region encompasses six Brazilian states: Amapá, Ceará, Maranhão, Pará (where Belém is located), Piauí, and Rio Grande do Norte.
A key aspect of this area is the influence of the Amazon River, as the river’s mouth is located there. Due to the large volume of water that it dumps into the ocean, rich in unique sediments and organic matter, the Equatorial Margin has developed a complex and diverse environment, characterized by mangroves, estuaries, and coral reefs.
Investigations by Petrobras, the Brazilian state-owned petroleum corporation, have found a vast offshore area on the ocean floor for oil and gas exploration, comprising five major oil basins. It is estimated that there are more than 30 billion barrels of oil in the area, which the company refers to as a “new frontier” for petroleum. This could have a massive impact on Brazil’s economy and energy security.
However, the implementation of having oil rigs to extract petroleum underground can have serious implications, especially since it is considered a high-risk area for oil spills. This could cause irreversible damage to the intricate biodiversity —which has not yet been widely studied— in the location and potentially further afield, as it is a crucial spot for ocean currents, which could spread the problem to far-off places.
Brazil’s Energy Transition Contradictions
Brazil currently has an ambitious energy transition schedule, aiming to gradually increase the share of renewables in its energy matrix by 23% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within the following 20 years. The country already boasts the extensive use of hydropower (which is not included in the percentage aim), but is investing in other sources, such as biofuels and wind.
The Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil and the Federal Government have a structured plan for energy transition, which emphasizes the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving a sustainable model as key goals. Nevertheless, it also prioritizes energy security. In the case of the Equatorial Margin oil, these two key points present a contradiction of interests.
This issue creates division at the heart of the Brazilian government itself. Marina Silva, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, for instance, is openly against oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin, advocating for the creation of an environmental preservation area in the same location.
This aligns with IBAMA’s ideology, the country’s primary environmental agency, which twice denied the environmental license for Petrobras to explore oil in the region, citing three main concerns: the need to improve studies of ocean currents to predict where the oil would spread in case of a spill; insufficient communication to the public, particularly Indigenous communities, about the potential environmental impacts; and the absence of a rapid response plan to rescue animals that might be affected by the oil.
Several other government members, however, value the energy autonomy argument more and are in favor of extraction, including Brazil’s President, Lula da Silva. The country’s leader has stated that the exploration will proceed and “the world is not ready to live without petroleum yet,” defending the importance of extraction due to economic factors.
There is also pressure from powerful mining and gas companies from around the world, in addition to Petrobras, which could also greatly benefit from the extraction projects. Many of them already operate in petroleum exploration on the nearby coast of Suriname and Guyana, countries that have growing oil industries.
This sets the stage for a head-on clash in Belém, Brazil, next November, where civil society members, big business and government agents from all around the world will all be reunited to address these issues, and many others alike.
Global Reliance on Oil and Hurdles to Clear
The difficulties of transitioning to clean energy are numerous. There are technological and logistical aspects that make it challenging to adapt existing infrastructure, for example, which serves to further fortify our dependence on energy derived from fossil fuels. Moreover, a lobby led by major oil, gas, and coal investors is, through financial interest, dedicated to making the process even more treacherous.
Some of these players are actually governments —especially in the Middle East— where strong economies with major global influence and significant power in climate negotiations gather, with a substantial portion of their GDP derived from oil and gas extraction and exports. Classic examples include Saudi Arabia, the 17th biggest economy, and the United Arab Emirates.
Brazil, despite its renewable energy potential, has been shaped by these dynamics. Due to the significant relevance the industry holds globally, this exploration could be a substantial contributor to its economy. To join the game, however, it is crucial for the country to form alliances with major exporters, which gives these players significant bargaining power in negotiations with the Brazilian government.
Even though there are many hurdles, ranging from economic, political and technological types, energy transition is an urgent topic to tackle with the aim of ensuring the Earth’s temperature doesn’t rise by the mark of 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial measurements – the amount stipulated to be avoided, as outlined in the Paris Agreement of 2015. This is because the energy sector is the one with the greatest greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those from fossil fuel-based sources.
According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, as of 2023, 68% of GHG emissions came from energy production: 26% from power, 11% from industry, 15% from transportation, 6% from buildings, and 10% from fuel (3% of which from oil).
Brazil’s Environmental Inconsistency
There is a clear paradox, as we established, in Brazil’s standing: a commitment to sustainability coexists with the desire to produce more fossil fuel energy through oil extraction in the Equatorial Margin. This contradiction actually goes far beyond this particular topic. The history of powerful economic agents influencing Brazilian environmental policies goes way back.
A relatively recent example is the Bill 2.159/2021, nicknamed the “Destruction Bill”, which was approved by the Brazilian Congress, and later sanctioned by President Lula with 63 partial vetoes. While the law weakened several licensing rules by removing the need for technical assessments to obtain environmental licenses, the vetoes were intended to mitigate environmental impacts and preserve minimum standards.
The agribusiness sector, a crucial part of the country’s economy, played a significant role in its approval. This is of great interest to them, as it is a growing business that requires land to expand. The destruction of forests and other ecosystems provides them with additional space to plant more crops or raise cattle, for example.
Based on that, it is highly plausible to be concerned about the role fossil fuel lobbies can play on the Equatorial Margin, conducting actions that prioritize economic gains over environmental considerations.
In Belém, Brazil, the Brazilian government is expected to present a large Sustainability Fund project, which could backfire badly if contradictions in its politics emerge during discussions and negotiations. Due to the nature of the conference and many of its participants, this is actually quite likely to happen.
COP30 in Belém — Brazil’s Energy Contradictions Put on the Spot
As COP 30 convenes, the world will watch how the host nation navigates its contradictions. This could be a great opportunity to bridge the divide and leverage renewable potential, seeking a way to balance economic interests and environmental concerns. Things can also go the other way, exposing inconsistencies that could erode credibility and create conflict.
During the conference in Belém, Brazil, the country may be forced to redefine its role in the energy transition. Tension may also spread to global businesses, as pressure should also find its way to push big companies, especially those in the oil industry, to align their investments with sustainability.
This post was originally published on Canary.