A peaceful settlement of the Ukraine conflict is not in the cards. It is a logical impossibility given the following truths
1. America’s leaders could not tolerate terms minimally acceptable to Russia. For such terms would represent a) an unmistakable loss of status and self-regard; b) a reversion from the strategic foundations of the country’s foreign policy put firmly in place over the past 35 years; and c) a domestic political embarrassment carrying heavy costs for Trump and his movement. Furthermore, Trump’s narcissistic, warped personality is too vulnerable to endure a rebuke and a failure of that magnitude. He is terrified at the prospect of looking like a loser.
2. Currently, there is not a single official at the policy level who has direct knowledge of Russia or has dealt with it on a sustained basis. Similarly, there is not a single official at the policy level who has the experience of having conducted serious diplomacy with foreign powers. Ignorant amateurs wedded to a rigid conception of American national interest are at the helm. A crew made up of a New York real estate operator who draws heavy financing from the Qatari government, a FOX news loudmouth, a Castro-obsessed Miami pol and an opportunistic novice Veep is in so far over their heads that the bubbles don’t reach the surface – and their skipper is an erratic, mentally impaired narcissist whose hold on reality is tenuous.
The fixed goal of everything that the United States does in the world is the securing of American dominance as institutionalized since 1991 – in every sphere of international life that counts and in every region where either the stakes are high or the prospect of a putative rival arising exists. To that end, they are prepared to use all the formidable means available to them. There is no group or intellectual current of weight whose worldview deviates markedly from this line in either political party, in Congress or among prominent members of the foreign policy community.
3. Therefore, the United States in Ukraine has stranded itself in a cul de sac that is strategic, political, intellectual and psychological. Trump’s so-called 28 Point peace proposal – a pastiche of the not-so-good, the very bad, and the very ugly – is an absurd non-starter. Dead on arrival in Moscow whoever the delivery man. When he finally realizes that he is cornered, Trump’s first instinct will be to bluster his way out; that failing, to forcibly fight his way out. Only the pervasive, unlimited capacity for self-delusion hides that unyielding fact. Self-delusion is the cardinal feature of the faux diplomatic initiatives that the White House is desperately trying to make real – over the strenuous objections of Kiev and the European allies who have succeeded in stiffening its provisions so they are yet more unpalatable to Moscow.
4. Vladimir Putin, and his associates, tacitly feed this delusion by taking a calculatingly temperate tack in reaction to this non-starter of a “peace” plan despite Washington’s quixotic and bumbling machinations. Whether they do so to satisfy partners (China, India, Turkey, Brazil) who for their own national reasons want to see an end to the war and whose cooperation is valued OR due to Putin’s long-standing and enduring hopes of engaging constructively with the United States, their non-confrontational approach carries the risk of entrenching the Americans’ fantastical view of the world. So that when crunch time comes, and humiliating defeat is at the door, they might revert to type and impulse by resorting to the violent, escalatory option.
Far-fetched? For some time, the Kremlin may well have been emboldening Washington to consider escalation by passively accepting that hundreds of American military personnel are firing American HIMARS and ACATM missiles into Russia proper, that American AWACS and satellites guide Ukrainian attacks against strategic radar sites, that analogous technical assistance allows for assault on Russia’s “shadow” oil fleet, that the Pentagon draws up the battle plans for the Ukrainian army and orchestrated the ill-starred 2023 offensive, that the CIA implanted itself along the country’s border to provide Kiev Intelligence and to facilitate para-military operations. This passive behavior has led many within Washington policy circles to believe that Putin is lacking in ruthlessness – whatever his other strengths. That impression has been reinforced by Russian restraint on Syria, Iran, Palestine and Venezuela when the Kremlin was confronted by audacious, in-your-face American actions. The conclusion that Putin is not a ruthless leader is probably correct – although incorrect in the corollary assumption that he would allow himself to be bullied into major concessions when push comes to shove over Ukraine. Putin’s reading of the Trump presidency is that the man’s mercurial nature and unpredictability potentially opens the possibility for some kind of meeting of the minds which was foreclosed by more conventional American leaders like Biden. A stable Russo-American modus vivendi, in turn, is the sine qua non for a longer-term reconciliation of Russia within the wider European system.
Another consideration. In all likelihood, there lurks in the back of Putin’s mind the dread fear that an unhinged Trump, roiling in the coils of his twisted psyche, could do something truly insane that endangers all. Keeping company with him – however tenuous – is seen as mitigating that risk by ensuring that Trump didn’t disconnect from reality totally.
What he fails to perceive is that behind the showmanship and disconnects, Trump’s outlook on the world – especially the fixed belief in the country’s superiority and privileged exceptionalism – at its core closely resembles that of the Washington consensus. Scratch beneath the surface and we experience deja vu all over again – decked out in novel costume.
Looking beyond Ukraine, bear in mind that this government, in less than a year, has established a stunning record for bellicosity: launching a massive air assault against Iran with no legal or security justification (an aggression concealed by a deceptive veil of fictitious peace talks); lending its military might and diplomatic muscle to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Syria followed by partial territorial seizures; participating in the Palestinian genocide; declaring war on Venezuela behind a smokescreen of transparent lies to hide the actual objective of taking control of the country’s petroleum resources; encouraging the newly minted Japanese government of ultra-nationalist Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to make the reckless declaration that Japan had a strategic national interest in Taiwan’s independence and, if necessary, defense; imposing or threatening coercive economic sanctions on an array of countries suspected of disobedience to Washington.
5. Domestic criticism of Trump’s mishandling of the United States’ foreign relations is feeble. The Democratic Party leaders share the same worldview (re. the Biden administration – and are inhibited about crossing swords with Trunp on any issue. The MSM have been intimidated into subservience to the point where even the most egregious lies and illegal actions are not labelled as such. Examples: the global tariff wars that are in direct violation of the Constitution (Article I, Section 8) that grants Congress the power “To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises,” which includes the authority to set tariffs on imported goods – with statutory exemptions limited to national security emergencies; the promiscuous use of the armed forces without even prior notification of the Congress; the ridiculous tale about Venezuela’s fishing skiffs delivering drugs only 800 miles off the U.S. coast, , the condition of Russia’s economy, the Afghan who shot the two National Guardsman – a CIA commando trained to fight a dirty war against the Taliban – as reason to suspend all asylum petitions, the destruction of the Nordstrom II gas pipeline, the denunciation as ‘traitor’ anyone who reminds serving military officers that they are bound by the Department of Defense’s manual stipulating codes of conduct as well as international law to refuse a manifestly illegal order. Hence, the public is instilled with the notion that there is nothing out-of-the-ordinary about the Trump dangerous escapades and inanities.
A conscientious follower of the MSM remains largely oblivious to the meaning and consequence of these matters. Superficial and fleeting mention of tactical differences or disagreements over the grammar of policy elbows out any serious critical commentary. Therefore, tolerance is high, electoral costs abnormally low and the President’s ability to act with feckless impunity unimpeded.
The United States is being defeated in Ukraine – comprehensively. One could say that it is facing defeat – or, more starkly, that it is staring defeat in the face. Neither formulation is appropriate, though. The U.S. doesn’t look reality squarely in the eye. We prefer to look at the world through the distorted lenses of our delusions. We plunge forward on whatever path we’ve chosen while averting our eyes from the topography that we are trying to traverse.
It is not that America is a stranger to defeat. We are very well acquainted with it: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Mali – in strategic terms if not always military terms. To this broad category, we might add Venezuela, Cuba, Belarus, Georgia and Niger. Moreover, Washington’s failures are now crowned by its embarrassment at being forced to run up the white flag when China stared it down in the Trump initiated tariff war. That rich experience in frustrated ambition has failed to liberate us from the deeply rooted habit of eliding defeat. Indeed, we have acquired a large inventory of methods for doing so.
Vietnam being the prime example. A society that so thoroughly can erase from the collective mind a Vietnam where 59,000 Americans died, surely can suppress Ukraine where no deaths are recorded.
The post The Agony of Defeat first appeared on Dissident Voice.This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.