It’s still quite early in the year but already, there’s a big focus on The Voice To Parliament – the Prime Minister has started mapping the timeline for when the referendum might take place – and it could be as early as August this year.
The Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney has outlined what the Voice to Parliament will look like and how it will work, but that doesn’t seem to be enough for the Coalition – who make all the noises about being supportive of Reconciliation, as long as they don’t have to do anything about it.
Already, the National Party has said that they won’t support The Voice To Parliament; the Liberal Party are doing their best to create division, fear and confusion within the community, and this is all being amplified by conservative media interests – but following on from the federal and Victoria elections last year, could this be another case where the electorate ignores what the Liberal Party and the media is telling them, and go on to support an issue that is in the interests of Indigenous people?
And, late last year, the Liberal Party released their election review, and it was released just before Christmas, so maybe they didn’t want too many people reading it – and it reads like a document of paranoia, a war-gaming plan to attack the teal independents in future election campaigns, and suggests that party needs to move even further to the right to differentiate itself from the Labor Party.
It could be a case where the Liberal Party doesn’t really know how to prepare a good election review after it’s lost an election – Labor’s losing election reviews are generally more concise and definitive because they’ve had more of them in recent times – but based on what’s in Liberal Party election review, they might be in Opposition for some time to come.
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For most of this year, it looked like Scott Morrison and the Liberal–National coaltion was going to lose the election, but because the opinion polls got it so wrong in 2019, very few people were prepared to predict the election result in 2022.
But it was obvious that Morrison was going to use the same tactics from 2019 to try and win this election – photo and media opportunities, and it was almost like Season Two of At Home With The Morrisons.
Scott Morrison was seen as a formidable campaigner, but that was a charade and a paper tiger – Morrison was a hopeless campaigner and thrown out of office at the May election.
We were strong critics of Morrison during his time as prime minister – and it seems the electorate agreed with us at the federal election. But with all the material and information that’s coming out about Morrison since that election loss, not only was he the worst prime minster in Australia’s history, he was on the way to becoming one of the more dangerous prime ministers.
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It was a big year in politics and the biggest event was the federal election in May. It wasn’t clear who was going to win the election, even though opinion polls were suggesting Labor was going to win. In that first hour after the polls closed on election night, it seemed the Coalition was on track to achieve their second consecutive surprise election victory – didn’t quite work out that way though.
Labor achieved a narrow victory, there were many seats won by independent candidates, and the Coalition lost badly. Paul Keating once said that when the government changes, the country changes as well and Australia now has a new government, new prime minister in Anthony Albanese, and an opportunity to steer the country in a new direction. And, despite what the media kept saying, this was an exciting election campaign, and one of the most important in Australia’s history.
Looking at Labor has been performing since the election in May, it appears the election result has been validated – they’ve implemented anti-corruption commission legislation, reformed industrial relations, repaired the relationship with Pacific Islands and started to repair the relationship with China. They’ve put the Voice to Parliament on the political map, they’ve introduced legislation to stabilise energy prices. This is a government that wants to do things, they don’t want to waste time. At looking at some of their achievements over the past seven months, they’ve achieved more than the Coalition managed to achieve over nine years They are riding high in the polls at the moment but that’s not going to last forever. But it also suggests the electorate is happy with the choice they made at the 2022 federal election.
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When the coronavirus arrived in early 2020, an anxious electorate threw its support behind Scott Morrison to guide Australia through the pandemic, leaving the Labor Party behind in a sea of irrelevance and Anthony Albanese with the role of political bit- player who could only watch from the sidelines, and hope that his political fortunes would change.
At the time, Morrison held record high electoral ratings and Albanese was told to not worry about the next election: it was already out of reach and best to focus on the 2025 election and beyond. Labor appeared to be doomed to yet another extended time in opposition and were left wondering when they could ever return to office again.
In 2022, Labor saw an opportunity: Morrison had made promises that he ultimately couldn’t deliver and couldn’t effectively deliver on the issues that should have been delivered. He was more intent on photo opportunities than the practice of good government and his leadership and government started to unravel, and it unravelled quickly.
Diary of An Election Victory explores the key political moments of the 2022 election year, Morrison’s demise, and Albanese’s ascendancy and victory against the odds. It’s a must-read analysis of one of the most dynamic and unusual election results ever in Australia’s political history.
The Labor review of the 2022 election has been released, and it’s a much better read than the reviews from the previous three elections which were all lost by the Labor Party. Of course, Labor did win the 2022 election, and while they’ve highlighted all those things that went right for them, they also outlined all the areas they need to improve on if they want to win the next election and the one after that.
The report is titled “Election 2022: An opportunity to establish a long-term Labor government” – so it’s obvious what they’re after — Labor does want to have that winning complacency knocked out of it and wants to be in office for the long term, so it can implement as many of its ideas as possible.
The Royal Commission into Robodebt is continuing and the news is becoming more and more damning for the former Coalition government and for the former Prime Minister Scott Morrison. There is a lot of buck-passing going on within this commission – the former head of the Department of Human Services Kathyrn Campbell keeps saying that she wish she’d taken more notice of the legality of Robodebt, and just assumed that it legal because nobody had said that it wasn’t. This is what happens when you have a compromised public service – everyone assumes everyone else is doing the work, no one takes responsibility, and in the meantime, there’s a whole lot of deliberate incompetence that ends up destroying people’s lives.
And there’s more revelations coming out about the Bruce Lehrmann case – and he was facing allegations of committing rape at Parliament House in 2019 – the first case resulted in a mistrial after misconduct by one of the jury members, and the second case was due to be held in February, but the department of public prosecutions dropped the charges due to health concerns for the complainant, Brittany Higgins. There have been allegations that the Australian Federal Police disclosed evidence they held – including psychological counseling notes from Brittany Higgins – to Lehrmann’s legal term – it seems that there has been a lot of interference in this case – they got involved in June 2021, raising concerns about any possible prosecution – and that was before any charges were laid. The Australian Federal Police has been politicised by the Liberal Party over the past two decades – and there were some suggestions that it was like a private militia for Liberal Prime ministers – but there probably needs to be further investigations into their behaviour.
The final opinion polls for the year have been released, and they both show Anthony Albanese is going everywhere, and Peter Dutton is going nowhere. In the Resolve Poll, the primary vote for Labor is at 42%, and that’s about 10% higher than their election result, and for the Coalition, it’s down to 30% – the preferred Prime Minister metric has Albanese at 54%, and Dutton at 19% – Albanese’s net approval rating is 36% – 60% approve, and 24% disapprove – Dutton’s net approval is minus 14. The Prime Minister and Labor did finish the parliamentary year well, but this is the icing on the cake – their election review suggests that they’re trying to remove as much complacency as possible within the ranks, but it might a bit difficult with an Opposition that’s performing so poorly.
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The Victoria election was held last weekend and, contrary to what everyone in the media wanted and predicted, it was another crushing defeat for the Liberal Party. It wasn’t even close. For the past three months, many in the mainstream media predicted Daniel Andrews had to lose the election; it was going to be very close; there was a surge for the Liberal Party; Andrews was possibly going to even lose his own seat.
While there was a 3 per cent swing against the Victoria government – seat wise, it’s more or less the same result as the 2018 election: Labor has won twice as many seats than the Liberal–National Coalition. And this was despite the entire media edifice – News Corporation, Seven West, Nine Media, the ABC – fully campaigning against Andrews and the Labor Party, not just during the election campaign, but for the past three years.
Scott Morrison has been censured by the parliament for secretly acquiring five ministries in 2020 and 2021. And while what he did was not unlawful, it’s one of the most bizarre incidents in Australia’s parliamentary history: there was no need for him to do this; there was absolutely no need for him to keep it a secret; he hasn’t actually offered any valid explanation for it; it totally undermined the principles of Westminster democracies.
The Opposition labelled this censure as a grubby political exercise but it’s a situation that couldn’t just be left behind or forgotten about. It’s an action that should never have happened and the public needs to keep being reminded about it, so it doesn’t happen again.
The parliament has ended for the year – Labor’s industrial relations and National Anti-Corruption Commission bills were passed by the Senate, and these are two massive legislative victories for the Labor government. Anthony Albanese ends the parliamentary year high in the polls, and he was able to relax and go to a Nick Cave concert in Canberra during the week.
These moments have to be lapped up because they’re not going to last for too long – Kevin Rudd also enjoyed high support six months into his prime ministership in 2008, and Labor occupied every single state and territory government around Australia. Many people at that time said that Labor was going to be in office for at least the next decade or two, but it didn’t quite turn out that way. But after seven months in office, the Labor government should be content with its achievements so far.
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Industrial relations are once again in the spotlight, with the mining industry and Qantas joining the Coalition in their attacks on the Labor government’s proposed legislation which will help to increase wages, reduce the gender pay gap, encouraging flexible working arrangements and allow workers from different companies to collectively negotiate pay rises.
And the big sticking points for these large companies is that issue of workers from different companies collectively negotiating pay rises – but this is the reason why the Labor party exists: to improve working conditions and increase wages for workers, and strike a balance between the needs of workers and the needs of business.
But it seems the business sector just wants everything on its own terms.
The Hancock Corporation – the company owned by Gina Rinehart – has argued that it wants to be excluded from collective negotiations for wage increases, but the profits for Hancock in 2021 were $7.3 billion; for BHP, it was $15.5 billion; and for Fortescue Metals – owned by Andrew Forrest – their profit was $14.3 billion. Qantas has reported that its profit for the first half of the 2023 year is going to be around $1.4 billion – so these are high profits and record profits for the mining industry and large businesses, at a time of stagnant wage growth.
It’s hard for these companies to argue against wage growth for workers, when they’re achieving sky high profits.
Victoria election
It’s the weekend of the Victoria election – and it’s one of the most important state elections for some time – not so much about the result, but the behaviour of the Liberal Party and the mainstream media. Looking back at the 2018 Victoria election – it was almost the same behaviour – The Age and the Herald Sun were most vocal in their opposition to the Victoria Labor government. The Liberal Party – supported by their federal counterparts – brought up the issues of terrorism and race baiting – claiming that African gangs were taking over the city of Melbourne and hardline Islam had terrorist cells operating in the western suburbs.
For all these efforts by the Liberal Party and the media in 2018, the Victoria Labor Government increased their majority, and had a 5.3 per cent swing towards them – and African gangs seemed to disappear after that, and were never talked about again.
Not to be outdone, the media has gone even harder this around, with a three-year anti-Daniel Andrews campaign that commenced during the pandemic: anti-lockdown stories, interviews with café owners, gym owners and pub owners about how unfair and terrible the Andrews government has been, and now filling the current campaign with as much hate and bile as possible.
Members of parliament have openly called for the execution of Daniel Andrews, and a wide range of QAnon extremists and neo-Nazis have been encouraged by the Liberal Party and the media – we’ve just never seen anything like this in an election campaign before.
Whistleblower charges need to be dropped
David McBride is being prosecuted over releasing details of war crimes committed by Australian troops in Afghanistan, and Richard Boyle is being prosecuted for releasing details about the aggressive and illegal debt collection practices of the Australian Taxation Office.
And it’s interesting to note that the only people who have been charged in these circumstances are the whistleblowers, not the perpetrators of original crimes.
The cases against McBride and Boyle commenced some time ago under the Coalition government, but the new Attorney–General Mark Dreyfus, said a Labor government would review these cases – the Attorney–General did drop the charges against Bernard Colleary in the East Timor spying case, but these two cases are still ongoing.
What’s not understood is that the two most powerful politicians in Australia are the Home Affairs minister and the Attorney–General – they’ve got more discretionary powers than even the prime minister – and the Attorney–General could use the powers contained within the Judiciary Act to stop these cases – in the same way that he dropped the case against Colleary. There might be all sorts of matters related to precedents or unintended legal consequences that the Attorney–General wants to avoid – but both of these cases have been going on for too many years. Dreyfus could drop these charges today if he wanted to – as he did in the case against Bernard Colleary – and that’s exactly what he should do now.
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There’s been a major breakthrough in the diplomatic relationship between Australia and China, with the Australian Prime Minister and Chinese president holding a meeting at the G20 summit in Indonesia. And this is a process initiated by both Anthony Albanese and Xi Jinping – it follows years of hostility from the previous Coalition government directed towards China, and a great deal of commentary verging on racism from the mainstream media.
The low point in the relationship was when the former Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton accused China of deliberately causing the coronavirus outbreak in 2020, China retaliated by imposing trade sanctions on Australian goods and services to the tune of $20 billion. All it took was some sensible people on both sides to start the dialogue, sit down in a room, discuss the issues, look at common ground, and create a pathway towards shared interests. Anthony Albanese has shown what constructive international diplomacy looks like, and it’s a stark contrast from the actions of the previous government, who just wanted to rattle the sabre and shout at everyone from the rooftops.
And the mid-term elections in the United States are over – there was talk of the red wave coming through from the Republicans, but that never eventuated, and most of the candidates supported by former US President Donald Trump didn’t get up, and the Democrats will still hold the Senate, and the Republicans will control the US congress by a very small margin. So, this is in America, but it’s an important election result, not just for America, but for Australia and the rest of the world.
Many jurisdictions all over the world over the past few years have swung towards more liberal-minded or governments of a centre-left persuasion, and there was a feeling that after the election of a far-right Prime Minister in Italy, the world was going to start swinging the other way, and the US was going to continue the trend that started off in Italy. There was a feeling that the red-wave coming in the US was going to signal a return of Donald Trump to the Presidency – and he has announce his intention to run in 2024 – but if he does get to the final election race, he might be in for a surprise.
But we’ve got a more insidious problem in Australia and that’s sports betting – and it was revealed during the week that an AFL umpire was arrested for betting on the Brownlow Medal – but it’s not really a surprise, we almost get more betting time than game time, gambling on sports in Australia is around $8 billion per year, SportsBet spends $130 million on advertising each year as well, and also pays the AFL $2 million each year for advertising. And it’s everywhere – it’s at the game, it’s on during a broadcast – a sports panel will discuss a game, and then launch into a segment about the betting odds, and which bet will offer the best return – and there’s a lot of money involved here, but this has become a big problem in sport.
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There’s a lot of issues that are starting to build up in federal politics and with just a few more weeks of sitting days before the end of the year, the Labor government is trying to fit in as much as possible before they all go home for Christmas. And major issue that they’re trying to push through as quickly as possible is their industrial relations bill, and the main agenda here is increase wages, especially for low-income workers, improve working conditions and create a better balance between the rights of business and the rights of workers.
The Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has come out to say that it will take industrial relations backwards and unions will hold businesses to ransom – this is the just the usual rhetoric that we get from business groups and the Liberal Party, who won’t be happy until workers are paid $2 a day, and can be sacked at whim – but the Labor Party was created through the unions and is the one that is supposed to support workers’ rights whenever it gets into government, so it can’t be a surprise that these changes to industrial relations were going to be made.
And COP27 is being held in Egypt this week – and that’s the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference – it is an important conference, but people who want global action on climate change are becoming impatient and now suggesting that it’s more of an annual greenwashing event but this is the 27th COP event, and global action is moving at a glacial pace.
Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, isn’t attending COP27 – we can argue that Albanese’s ministerial team when compared to Scott Morrison’s team is more than capable, but should Albanese be there as well? He can’t argue that the Prime Minister should have gone last year, and then this year argue that he can’t be in two places at the same time can he?
And the actions of the previous Morrison government are back in the spotlight again – the Robodebt Royal Commission is revealing more and more information about this scheme – and it’s quite damaging to the reputation of Scott Morrison, and to the Liberal Party – and it might lead to lead to more than just damage to reputation.
This Royal Commission will run its course, and will find out whatever it needs to find out, but one curious issue is the coverage of this Royal Commission in the media – this is illegality committed by a Liberal Government, over 2000 people committed suicide as a result, and it ultimately cost taxpayers $1.8 billion in compensation payments, but the homes pages of the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Herald Sun, Courier Mail have no material about the Royal Commission, their reporting has been scarce, the ABC has given some coverage, with most of the reporting coming from The Guardian and The Saturday Paper.
In comparison to the Royal Commissions into Trade Unions, and the Pink Batts insulation schemes, which had blanket media coverage, there’s not much interest from the media into Robodebt.
And speaking of how inept the mainstream media is in Australia, the Herald Sun has excelled again in its attacks on the Victoria Premier, Daniel Andrews – and it’s still running with a story about a car accident with a cyclist from 9 years ago, but at least it’s gone to some more recent history, where it’s regurgitated a story from 12 months ago, when Andrews fell down a flight of stairs, and made it seem like something untowards was going on.
Kevin Rudd did call for a royal commission into media concentration, and while the Labor government might be busy with quite a few other matters at the moment – fixing up the economy, wages growth, industrial relations, climate change, corruption – it will have to do something about News Corporation, because it’s an out of control media organisation, and a menace to society.
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The Budget is all over, and just like many of the previous Budgets, it’s almost disappeared from the news cycle, although there’s still some remnants that are being discussed, and the two big issue s are inflation and tax cuts – the Reserve Bank did raise interest rates during the week, and that’s the seventh consecutive interest rate rise – and the Reserve Bank Governor Phillip Lowe said that the rates will keep rising, although we have to remember he also said interest rates wouldn’t rise until 2024, and that was just a few months before the last election – and these interest rates rises are primarily being used to curb inflation.
The Labor government is facing many economic problems that have to be addressed, and it doesn’t really matter who caused these problems, they’re in government now, and it’s their job to repair the damage.
Some economists have suggested that the state of the economy now is very similar to the Depression era economy, with a combination of high national debt and inflation – and the Scullin government at that time, couldn’t resolve the issues they inherited and were thrown out of office in 1931.
It’s difficult to compare economies from different eras – the economy today is far more complex and sophisticated than what it was in 1931 – but there might be a few lessons for the Labor government – fix the economy, or face a very short period of time in office.
Robodebt rears its ugly head again
Robodebt has also reared its ugly head again, and the Royal Commission into the previous government’s Robodebt scheme is hearing evidence at the moment – and there’s some pretty awful material that’s being presented there. And we’re hearing from public servants, lawyers, people affected by Robodebt, people who had family members who suicided after receiving Robodebt notices.
We can see why the Coalition just wants to deal with the here and the now, and don’t want to hear about the past – but past is coming back to bite them – the government did receive legal advice in 2014 that a Robodebt system was unlawful and unconstitutional – yet a year later, they implemented the scheme. They were also given legal advice during the operation Robodebt scheme that it was unlawful, yet they continued to run with it.
The former Prime Minister Scott Morrison is likely to appear at the Royal Commission to explain his actions as well, but whatever the outcome from the Royal Commission is, and whoever goes down with it well, we just have to make sure that governments can never ever introduce this type of system again.
The Lurhmann mistrial
And there’s also a few legal cases in the national news – Bruce Lurhmann was accused of raping Brittany Higgins in 2019 at Parliament House – and the trial had to be aborted because of misconduct by one of the members of the jury, where the jury member brought in their own research into the jury room, we assume to influence other jury members – the jury hadn’t been able to reach a verdict after deliberating for five days and after these research papers were found in the jury room, the judge dismissed the case and there’ll be a retrial in February 2023.
It’s an unsatisfactory outcome, but as a result of this mis-trial, there have been calls for a different type of court system for dealing with serious crimes of sexual assault – only around 15% of rapes are reported to police, and ultimately only 3% of those result in convictions – and only 10% of all rape trials result in a guilty verdict, and that’s a really low statistic considering prosecution usually decides to go to trial if they think there’s a good chance of winning the case –
So obviously the system is not functioning well at all, and for different reasons, the Bruce Lurhmann trial was a more public example of this – and that was an issue with the jury, not with the case itself – but these types of cases are heard every day all around the country, with similar results, and it’s a system that needs to change.
A racist attack in the West
And there was a recent incident in Perth where a 15-year-old Indigenous boy, was beaten by a 21-year-old white man while he was walking home from school – Cassius Turvey died a few days later, and the WA police tried to play down the racial aspect to the attacks by suggesting that he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time – just a bit odd, because Indigenous people always seem to be in the wrong place at the wrong time – and they were also asking the public not to draw conclusions –
And it’s the same story all around Australia, whether it’s Redfern, Darwin, Palm Island, Moree or Middle Swan in Perth, Police always try to downplay the racist influence in these attacks on Indigenous people – a 15 year old boy has just been killed, and they put so much effort into downplaying the racist element to it.
The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese has called out this racist attack, so if the Prime Minister can say it, why can’t the police – if a 15-year-old girl from MLC had been attacked in this way, this would be massive national news for the next couple of months, but an Indigenous kid in a working class suburb of Perth, it tends to get brushed away.
The division of News Corporation
Despite everything that the Herald Sun, The Age, and the ABC have been able to throw at Daniel Andrews, Labor is still way ahead in the opinion polls – and Labor have been far from perfect, but they’re not incompetent – Daniel Andrews has made mistakes, but Matthew Guy has been a poor leader and the Victoria Liberal Party is in a complete mess.
Now having said all of that, we just have to remember what happened in 1999 – The Liberal Premier at the time, Jeff Kennett, he was widely expected to win – he was way ahead in the polls, although the polls did narrow dramatically in the final week or two before the election day – and Steve Bracks ended up winning the election, with the support of independents. In that election, the Liberal Party lost 15 seats – and the ABC’s Anthony Green said afterwards that it was the only election that he’s ever worked on where he thought there might be something wrong with his election computer –
so, that was a surprise election loss for the government in 1999 – it could always happen again in 2022, although the Coalition needs to win 18 seats to win the election – so it has to win more seats than Labor did in 1999, and it starts from further behind – so, it is unlikely, but you never know what might happen on election day.
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The second Budget for 2022 has been released, and it’s Labor’s first budget in nine years – it’s a Budget that’s been prepared in very difficult circumstances – there’s a national government debt of almost a trillion dollars – inflation is now running at 7.3% – and there’s a whole lot of demands about what the government should be doing with taxpayer funds over the next few years.
But economics isn’t just about debt and inflation, there’s a wide range of issues to take into account – there’s revenue, how this money is spent, there’s productivity issues, there’s consumer behaviour issues – and, of course, there’s the politics.
Budgets are all about government trying to achieve their policy objectives, according to their ideological persuasions – but the Labor government is trying to balance a number of different factors, difficult economic circumstances, managing expectations, keeping their election promises – but this first Budget from Jim Chalmers seems to be about building trust with the electorate first up – and of course, there’s going to be people that aren’t happy with the Budget – and it is disappointing from a climate change perspective – and there’s still no additional support for people on Jobseeker – but it’s a Budget that’s getting back to that idea of people at the centre of the economy, and that’s an important first step.
And whenever there’s a Budget announcement – even if it is the second one of the year – there’s also the Budget right of reply for the leader of the opposition, and Peter Dutton hit all the predictable issues, such as cost of living issues, broken promises, cost of gas and electricity – and just like the media, he’s fixated on the $275 reduction in power prices that Labor promised during the election campaign.
That was a power reduction that was promised by 2025 – two years away, but it’s not stopping Dutton from making it seem like that’s a promise that has been broken right now – it’s hard work being in Opposition, trying to make yourselves seem relevant, when your not, and especially when a new government is trying to fix up all the severe budget problems that the Coalition has created over the past nine years – you have to hope that the electorate is going to forget all of these problems that were left behind – but at this stage, Dutton has to look for all the small issues to gain traction, not just for the Liberal and National Parties, but for his own position as well.
Where can Labor improve? This is a good start, but there’ll be another Budget in May 2023, and Labor could do six-monthly Budgets for the first two years of this term if they wanted to – but most economists agree that inflation is the biggest issue facing the federal Budget – and most economists agree that this is what Labor has done right.
But it will have to do more to address inflation – some of this is controllable, some is not – the first big step for Jim Chalmers has been to gain credibility with the Australian public, but they’ll also have to defy what they said they were going to do during the election campaign – address falling wages – but it can’t do that until inflation is under control.
So, that’s one of the first big issues they need to do more with, but they’ve got another Budget in May next year – but they can’t move on many other issues until they address this first.
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The floods in eastern Australia have been the focus of political attention over the past week, with major flooding events in Victoria, southern New South Wales and the northern parts of Tasmania – there are parts of Australia that going through their third once-in-a-hundred year flooding event over the past two years, and some areas are getting their second major flooding event, just after the previous one is receding.
In total, that’s eight major floods over the past two years, and as predicted, these extreme events are being more frequent. The previous Coalition government turned a blind eye to climate change, since 2013, and were slow the act when events such as floods and bushfires occurred, and whatever support was given, was granted in a way that favoured them politically.
This is the second batch of floods in short succession since the Labor government came into office – and we recognise that climate change issues are not going to resolved overnight – but what can the Labor government do that’s different to the previous Coalition government?
Goodbye Jerusalem
And during the week, the Australian government quietly overturned the decision of the Morrison government to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and that decision was made in haste in the lead up to the Wentworth byelection in November 2018, and that’s a seat where 16 per cent of the electorate is Jewish.
That decision didn’t win the seat of Wentworth at that time – it was lost to the independent candidate, Kerryn Phelps – but it was cynical move for political advantage, and followed on from the decision of US President Donald Trump to not only recognise Jerusalem as the capital, but also move the US embassy from Tel Aviv as well.
Ever since Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed that Australia would revert to recognising Tel Aviv as the capital – and bearing in mind that the UN doesn’t recognise Jerusalem as the capital, and it’s only recognised by a few countries, including the US and Russia – we’ve mainly heard from the Israeli lobby group in Australia, and they think that it’s a terrible idea, and we’ve only just started hearing from the Palestinian groups in Australia, who welcome the announcement.
Israeli–Palestinian politics is a very difficult field to navigate – and it might not be as difficult as British politics at the moment – but Penny Wong’s decision brings Australian back into line with the international community, so it seems this is a positive move.
The fraud of a Medicare fraud
Medicare has been in the spotlight this week, with allegations that doctors are scamming the system to the tune of $8 billion per year – it’s not clear how these figures are being calculated – the doctor whose reports are being used as the basis for these figures, Dr Margaret Faux, claimed the figure was possibly $3.6 billion – but she has not suggested it’s fraud and scamming, but honest mistakes by doctors – but the media was quick to label this as a major fraud.
We do have to be a bit skeptical about all of this – the overall cost of Medicare is $30 billion per year, and it’s hard to accept that more than 25% would be through fraud, and there might also be some vested interests involved here, with Dr Faux also the CEO of Synapse Medical Services, a provider of medical billing systems, and training services for doctors in these billing systems.
There is going to some fraud and some rorting of any system that involves $30 billion per year, and we have to remember all those cowboy doctors operating those liposuction procedures and charging it all on Medicare – but to suggest there’s $8 billion Medicare fraud going on: there might be something else going on here.
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There have been calls for a parliamentary inquiry into media diversity in Australia, and generally, the behaviour of the mainstream media – and these calls have been made for about 20 years or so. The independent member for Goldstein, Zoe Daniel – and she used to work as a journalist before entering parliament – she currently has a motion in parliament, and that was introduced in early September, with secondary debates in the final week of the last parliamentary session about whether an inquiry should be held.
Australia does have one of the most concentrated media landscapes in the world, dominated by two companies – News Limited and Nine Media – there’s also issues with the Australian Press Council, and that’s funded by the mainstream media, and that’s the place where you can lodge a complaint about the media, and it’s pretty much close to useless, – and generally, the mainstream media in Australia tends to be supportive of conservative political interests. And if you’re not of a conservative persuasion, that’s not good news.
We’d highly recommend an inquiry into the media in Australia, and you’d expect that this is something that a Labor government would be supportive of, considering they’re usually on the end of most of the attacks from the media, whether they’re in government or Opposition – so what are they waiting for?
The Art of the Broken Promise
Politicians make a lot of promises, but it’s the broken promises that everyone tends to remember. Back in 1996, the former Prime Minister John Howard introduced the idea of core and non-core promises into the political vernacular, and that was after he broke some key election promises after finding out that he couldn’t keep them, and the media at that time seemed to accept this idea.
There’s been a lot of focus of Stage 3 tax cuts and broken promises – and the media has made it very clear to the public that this will be a big breach of public trust if Labor does repeal the tax cuts, while at the same time, it seems to be pushing them to break this promise well – but there are other areas where the Labor government is pushing the boundaries on what they promised or what they discussed in the last federal election campaign.
There are a few issues of broken trust up for debate – Labor promised to deliver an anti-corruption commission with teeth, but there’s now a few sticking points about transparency and public hearings; Labor also took the previous Coalition government to task about the secrecy of the National Cabinet – while they didn’t promise to release National Cabinet documents, they’ve closed down debate about making these documents public.
And they’ve also removed COVID isolation requirements, without releasing the medical evidence from the chief health officer to support this decision – and that’s one area that they also criticised the previous Coalition government on – and it seems that they’re now doing exactly the same.
All political leaders and all governments are going to caught out on these issues, so why do they keep making the promises they can’t keep, and sometimes keep the promises that they should be getting rid of, such as the Stage 3 tax cuts?
The Return of the Ruby Princess
The class action trial against Carnival PLC has commenced in Sydney, and that’s over the Ruby Princess incident in March 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic, where 663 Australia were infected with COVID, and 28 of those passengers died – and the arguments for the plaintiff are that the entire incident wasn’t an accident and the ship should never have sailed at all.
There was a special commission of inquiry into the Ruby Princess, and that report was completed in August 2020, but it was a whitewash of a report, and couldn’t hold anyone responsible for the incident, but hopefully this class action trial will shine some more light on these events.
The Polls
And there was also a Resolve Poll that came out during the week – and again, not much difference in the polling from the previous month – Labor has 58% in two-party preferred voting, which means the Coalition is polling at 42% – Albanese is still preferred Prime Minister by 53% to Dutton’s 18%, and the net approval rating is 36 points for Albanese, and Dutton’s is minus 10 points.
And we have to remember that Albanese has similar figures to Dutton’s at the same point in his leadership against Scott Morrison – today, Albanese is the Prime Minister, and Morrison isn’t – so there is a little ray of hope for Peter Dutton.
But the interesting issue about this poll is that all key indicators – and that’s economic management, health care, aged care, and education – Labor is way ahead of the Coalition – and it’s even on national security and defence – and economic management and national security and defence are seen more as the issues that are owned by conservative parties – so even though there are issues for the Labor Party, and a lot of pressure piled on by the media and the Opposition, there’s a perception in the electorate that they’re actually doing well – and that of course can change quickly, and might change very quickly after the October Budget is released – but these polls are good for Anthony Albanese, and not so good for Peter Dutton, as they have been ever since he became the Leader of the Opposition.
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The Conservative Political Action Conference rolled into Sydney last week, and it’s an extreme libertarian group who are maniacally angry, loud, abrasive, in-your-face, and filled with endless complaints about everything in their sights.
A culture of complaint but without any solutions and without any responsibilities. They’re anti-socialist, anti-woke, anti-republic, anti-cancel culture. What are they actually for? Is there anything positive in their agenda? No. It’s destructive, not constructive. These are cashed-up babies who never really grew and are suffering from arrested development. Sure, there are the fools on all sides of politics, but this chapter of CPAC is on a special level of its own.
Should the CPAC be left to its own devices and wither away? No, every argument they put forward can be easily rebutted, but they’re supported by the wealth class, who are only too happy to fund this level of unhinged stupidity to sway opinions in the electorate.
Just as special CPAC guest, Nigel Farage, managed to do with Brexit – he extracted Britain from the European Union, and left it teetering on the edge of disaster and obscurity. In the same way Australian conservatives embraced Lord Monckton in the early 2010s to manufacture anger against Labor’s carbon pricing mechanism, yet another failed British reject is sent off to antipodes to spread his own brand of lies, racism, classism and hate.
This nihilistic agenda has to be pushed back at every opportunity.
The Frontier Wars
The Australian War Memorial has announced that it will expand the recognition of the different frontier wars that occurred in Australia – and they were the conflicts between white settlers and police on one side, and Indigenous people – and this is after sustained criticism over many years that the War Memorial mainly focussed its attention on overseas wars and totally ignored the wars against Indigenous people that commenced a few months after European settlement or invasion in 1788, and lasted until the 1930s.
And much of this has been documented – there were the Hawkesbury and Nepean Wars, the Bathurst War, there was the Black Wars in Tasmania, Battle of Pinjarra, the battles in the Kimberley region – and there’s many more that have been documented as well – and at least 40,000 Indigenous people died, and around 3000 settlers.
And the effects of these frontiers wars and violence are still affecting Indigenous people, a treaty or a formal end to these wars had never been made – most people aren’t aware of the details of these frontier wars – there’s still more that needs to be done in this space, but the Australian War Memorial expanding this knowledge to the general public is a good start.
Liz Truss and Tax Lessons for Labor
We don’t usually comment on British politics, but the new British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, may have just done the Australian Labor Party a huge favour, and that was when she announced that she was going to provide a tax cut for high income earners in the UK – abolishing the tax rate of 45% for incomes over £150,000.
It’s safe to say that not very many people were happy with this decision – the British pound dropped dramatically, there was a revolt within the Conservative Party, and there was a political backlash within the British electorate, which resulted in opinions polls showing 54% support for the British Labour Party, and just 21% support for the Tories.
Abolishing the top tax rate meant that people earning over £150,000 would be paying 40% in tax, so it’s not a major adjustment, but that’s the revolt that occurred by dropping the highest tax bracket by 5%.
The Stage 3 tax cuts, which are supposedly coming in at the beginning of the 2024/25 tax years, propose remove the 37% tax band, and just having the 32.5% tax band for incomes between $45,000 and $200,000 – so it’s a different type of tax cut, but it’s still significant, and actually worse than what the UK proposed – Anthony Albanese and the Labor government are starting to face a lot of pressure over the Stage 3 tax cuts, even though it’s not their policy – but should they looking at what’s happening in the UK to guide their decision making?
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The anti-corruption commission is one step closer to reality – the Labor government tabled its Bill in Parliament this week, despite all the claims from conservative media that the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, was stonewalling the commission and using excuses, such as the death of the British monarch, to withhold the legislation and stymie the commission.
It can never be underestimated how far the mainstream media will go to de-legitimise this Labor government, with the Australian Financial Review fabricating a story where, supposedly, Albanese was solely negotiating with the Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, on the anti-corruption commission, and sidelining the Australian Greens and the teal independents. And this was going to result in a watered-down anti-corruption commission, and cause trouble for the Labor government in trying to get its legislation passed by the Australian Greens in the Senate.
The only problem: it wasn’t true. The crossbench seems to be very satisfied with the legislation, although there are sticking points on public hearings, protections for whistle blowers and a guarantee of funding.
Legacy media has had a habit of supporting conservative parties, even when there’s an inept leader such as Dutton. He’s currently going through a makeover, and being rebranded into a leader who’s more palatable to the public. While we can never underestimate any political leader – John Howard was told he could never be Prime Minister, until he became Prime Minister. Tony Abbott too. And Scott Morrison. Donald Trump was an idiot who could never become President of the United States, until he became the President of the United States.
Any politician can become the leader of a country, given the right circumstances, and with the incessant support of the media. Which is currently happening with Peter Dutton. With any political issue; Dutton is the go-to for the media. Problems with an Optus hack? What does Peter Dutton think about this? Cost of living issues? Let’s speak to Dutton, he knows the answer. Petrol excises? Dutton, he’s out go-to man, he speaks the truth.
But polishing a turd has its limits – although the popular science show MythBusters once did show that it’s definitely possible to “polish the turd”, it’s different for Dutton. He’s been around for far too long and has accumulated such a negative public image, that it’s hard to see how this could change. But aside from this, where’s the gravitas? What’s the intellectual and political substance behind the man? Where’s the creative curiosity?
There isn’t any, and this is the failing of Dutton: it’s all anti-union; anti-immigration; anti-Labor; anti-intellectual, littered with the racist undertones. And it’s not a recipe for success in contemporary Australia, which discarded this type of thinking at the recent federal election in May 2022.
Senator Jacqui Lambie has issued an apology – of sorts – for voting for Stage 3 tax cuts all the way back in July 2019. She’s made the claim that the economy can’t support it – which is absolutely true – but why has she waited until now? The economy has been tanking and was in an incredible dire position in 2019 when she voted for these tax cuts – as it is in 2022.
Lambie is an opportunist – which is what you’d expect from a Senator, trying to get the best deal for their state; in this case, Tasmania. And Tasmania had a $157 million debt waived for her support for the Morrison’s government Stage 3 tax cuts legislation. But she’s never owned up to what the deal was for repealing the Medivac legislation – pushing that idea that people just had to trust her – even though she claimed in 2021 that there was no deal and nothing was negotiated.
Lambie can’t be trusted on these key issues but it’s also unclear what she is trying to achieve with these latest ramblings. It’s a mystery.
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After a fortnight where most of Anglosphere was preoccupied with the death of a British monarch, life is getting back to normal and to the real things that matter: there’s a Budget coming up soon, and there’s been a hint from the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, of “substantial temporary taxes” to repair the national figures and start managing the trillion dollar government left behind by the Coalition.
Already, the media and the Opposition are pushing the idea that Labor is the party of big taxes and spending, and not to be trusted with managing finances. What they ignore is that the three biggest taxing governments in the post-war period are the Howard, Abbott and Morrison governments – and in the case of the Morrison government, not much of substance to show for all of their spending.
But, it’s not the amount of taxes that matters, it’s the quality of spending. And there’s not much evidence of quality over the past nine years. Of course, we’ll have to see what the Labor government will spend taxpayer’s money on in the Budget, but surely it won’t be as profligate as Morrison’s final term in office.
And how super is Albanese’s renewables superpower? It’s rhetoric that was pushed during the May election campaign, but it’s time for this to be matched with action. The Australian Greens have recommended the $1.9 billion the previous government had allocated to a “gas-led recovery” – a strange choice for a response to a pandemic – be re-allocated to renewable energy. And it makes sense: it fits perfectly into the Labor government’s agenda, and it needs to take this first step if Australia does want to become a renewables superpower. If the Labor government is actually serious about this…
The former Prime Minister – Tony Abbott – has been re-appointed to the board of the Australian War Memorial. Is this a lost opportunity for Labor and should they start putting in their “own people”? No, it should be the best and the most appropriate people for the position – it’s just that the Coalition always inserts its own conservative people and supporters into high-powered government boards, without any concern whether these are the right people. And it results in $500 million being allocated to a renovation at the War Memorial, without a question about whether this is value for money. Why not spend this money on the veterans of war, rather than an already overblown budget for a memorial that glorifies conflict?
It’s actually mind-boggling to see how many breaches of protocol Scott Morrison seemed to immerse himself in – a sole-person committee where he could decide whether an official Cabinet meeting had taken place – or not – and therefore, he could keep any details of a meeting a secret for 20 years. It’s almost like Alice In Wonderland. Except this was a real Prime Minister. There were 739 ‘meetings’ and 665 of these are actually unaccounted for. 665. It might not be so important to find out the details of these unaccountable meetings but it is important that someone of the calibre of Scott Morrison is never allowed anywhere near Parliament again.
And with a return to normal life after the insane and incessant media coverage of the British monarch, we can also start to have normal discussions about Australia’s transition to a republic. But as much as we’d like it to happen soon, it’s probably not going to be enacted for some time to come. In our estimation: with a benign and invisible King? Perhaps in 2026 or 2027. However, if there’s more scandals to come through (hint: Prince Andrew), perhaps 2024, at the earliest. There’s still a long road ahead.
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Australia lost a head of state last week, and gained a new one, even though nobody voted for King Charles, and nobody was asked about it. And this will keep happening until Australia becomes a republic.
The Queen has died, and people can pay their respects if they wish to, but it’s time for Australia to move on with its own future and its own destiny – it can’t be hamstrung by some dysfunctional family in a faraway country that couldn’t really care about what happens in Australia.
And it needs to happen soon. Several years ago, the former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull proclaimed “we are all Elizabethans”, and suggested that the right time for Australia to move towards a republic was after the passing of the Queen. That time has now arrived: what are we waiting for? And to use the words of the current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese when he described the need for the Voice To Parliament, “if not now, when?”.
Australia is republican in nature, but there are tight strings holding us to the monarchy, and the mainstream media is a part of that system that keeps nailing these strings down. The media reportage after the Queen died was incessant, one dimensional and left no room to move for alternative perspectives or other voices to outline their reasons for why they might not be so enthused about the role of the British monarchy within Australian society, or the death of the Queen: Indigenous people; Irish Catholics living in Australia; Fijian Indians; Indians from the sub-continent; republicans.
And this is how soft power is exercised: dissenting voices are removed, and not even considered; unknown protocols are implemented; everyone is told what they need to think and feel about the Queen. But who are we trying to avoid offending? The Queen? The royal family? British sympathisers in Australia? Monarchists?
History needs to be an unvarnished truth: no one is perfect, not even the Queen of England, the Queen of Britain, the Queen of Australia. We should receive a clearer understanding and fuller picture of political figures: the colour and shades of grey, not the overloaded black and white clichés that we’ve been presented with through the non-stop and uncritical media transmission over the past week.
Where does this leave an Australian republic? Today is the day the path towards the republic commences: it can’t wait until after the Queen’s funeral, or wait until the new King settles in, just to “see what he’s like”.
And not just any kind of republic: the current Constitution is broken; it needs to be repaired. Today is the day to talk about the republic.
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The federal government is still feeling the warm inner glow after the Jobs and Skills Summit, which was the first public display of the consensus politics the Prime Minister talked about during the federal election campaign. And getting corporate, union and political leaders together is no mean feat: agreement is the harder part though, and it seemed to work out well.
But now the difficult part – the Budget. Anthony Albanese has been pushing out the messages that we’re in difficult economic circumstances and because there’s a trillion dollar national government deficit, high inflation and a wide range of other economic issues, the Budget will be a particularly harsh one. Governments accumulate baggage as time goes on – that’s the nature of politics – and how they manage the October Budget will determine the rest of this term of Parliament.
The media has never supported union action – even when there’s a just cause – they’ve always depicted any form of action as moves by ungrateful and greedy workers – forced upon by the also greedy unions – greatly inconveniencing the public. And, of course, this theme is also pushed by the Liberal Party, with their rhetoric of “union thugs” and making it seem as those unionists and workers are soiling the wheels of capitalism and affecting the wellbeing of the economy.
Yes, a one-day strike is an inconvenience to the public – but low pay and poor working conditions are an inconvenience to workers every single day of the year. Union bashing isn’t good for anyone and it’s a pity the journalists who rail against unions don’t understand where their sick pay, holiday pay, higher wages, leave entitlements and working conditions, came from. A clue: it’s not from the goodwill of their employers.
And the unbridled ambitions of Scott Morrison have resulted in another victim: the Governor–General, David Hurley. It seems his silence on the secret ministries he signed off on for Morrison did have a price: $18 million, in the form of some kind of obscure leadership program. We’re not suggesting any corruption here, but it does seem like it. The Governor–General does have some questions to answer.
The poor opinion polls are continuing for the Liberal Party – this is not the end; we’re only four months into this parliamentary term, but it’s an Opposition with few redeeming features and seemingly bereft of ideas. Using “Kermit the Frog” to lampoon Albanese is their idea of a political strategy, and if this continues, it’s not going to end well for the Liberal Party. And of top of this, there are Pentecostal groups who are seizing control of branches in Victoria and South Australia.
It seems like a long hard road ahead for the Liberal Party.
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Robodebt was one of the most disastrous acts of public administration in Australia’s history and the condemnation has arrived from all sides of politics – former Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, Labor, the Australian Greens, the federal court – and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a Royal Commission into this scheme.
All up, it’s a scheme which cost taxpayers $1.8 billion, over 2000 people suicided from the stress and anxiety created by the scheme, and over 470,000 were asked to pay money to the government, for debts which they never owed. It’s rare for governments to create such a high level of extortion upon its own citizens, but that’s exactly what the Coalition government achieved between 2015–2020.
And their response? To double down and blame Labor for the scheme, even though the scheme was introduced two years after they left office in 2013. And for Peter Dutton to also claim that Albanese’s Royal Commission is a ‘witch hunt’. It’s essential for anti-human and insidious – and illegal – governments acts to be investigated, to ensure that they can never happen again but, just like they did in government, the Coalition always looks to play the blame game. It’s always someone’s fault.
The Labor government has been in office for 100 days and is travelling well – but it’s hard not to travel well in this period because there’s not much that can go wrong in such a short amount of time. Problems accumulate for governments as the years roll on, and it’s still too early to assess how well Labor is travelling.
One issue for sure is the conundrum of the economically irresponsible Stage 3 tax cuts and the rate of the Jobseeker payment. Labor hounded the previous government over the low rate of Jobseeker – $40 per day – but now they’re in government, they’re saying that it’s fiscally irresponsible at this stage to raise it any higher.
Raising Jobseeker to $65 per day – which is a rate broadly supported by the business sector and many people in the community (and the Labor Party too, when they were in Opposition) – will cost $3 billion per year. The Stage 3 tax cuts will cost between $20–30 billion per year, so it’s a strange hill for Labor prepare to die on.
It’s also irresponsible to campaign so vehemently on an issue in Opposition, and do the opposite in government and Labor will have a large credibility problem on equity and fairness – and on key Labor values – if it continues down this path.
And the Jobs and Skills Summit is over and Labor now hopes to create a pathway for low unemployment, secure well paid jobs, expanding employment opportunities, addressing skill shortages, maximizing jobs from renewable energy and the digital economy and addressing equal opportunity and equal pay for women.
These are noble intentions but it will take many years to see if the summit was a success. The Coalition – once again – decided to deal itself out of relevance and felt that it was more important to shout from the sidelines, rather than be a productive part of future solutions. It’s their choice, but with this approach of negative carping and opposing everything in sight – electric utes, unions, royal commissions, jobs and skills (to name just a few issues among many), it seems that Peter Dutton is preparing the Liberal Party for a long stint in Opposition. And seems quite happy to do this.
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As the rumblings of Scott Morrison’s secret ministers become louder, the Liberal Party – and their friends in the media – are keen to dismiss Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to hold an inquiry into how and why these appointments were ever made. No suitable explanation has been provided by Morrison – or the Governor–General David Hurley – and it’s essential to find out why.
Democracies depend on people of good will, but our system shows that it doesn’t cater for people of ill will or ulterior motivations. Morrison proved to be one of these bad seeds and laws will need to be enacted to ensure this kind of secrecy in government never occurs again.
During the 2022 federal election campaign, the Liberal Party claimed “it won’t be easy under Albanese”, but it’s very easy at the moment, with the Prime Minister – and the Labor Party – riding high in the opinion polls. It won’t last forever, of course, but it seems that the Liberal Party is keen to stay in the doldrums and continue with their ‘business as usual’ approach of opposition for opposition’s sake, and quickly adopting a culture of complaint, rejecting everything – even the good ideas – because this, apparently, represents their best chance of electoral success.
But looking at the results of the 2021 Western Australia election – the Liberal Party reduced to just two seats – and the diabolical status of the Victoria branch of the Liberal Party – it’s a foolish decision. If the party wants to gain political relevance again, it needs to change tack. But does Peter Dutton have the ability to do this?
And what does News Corporation have against Joy Division? Usually, nothing. But if Anthony Albanese wears a Joy Division T-shirt and goes to a gig at the Enmore Theatre, it’s not very prime ministerial, and it’s unbecoming. It’s an outrage. Perhaps Murdoch’s minions need more joy, and less division. It will be good for the soul.
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Irrespective of how much effort conservatives and the mainstream media are putting into downplaying the significance of the secret ministries of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the fact that the two people at the apex of Australia’s political system – the Prime Minister and Governor–General – made secret executive decisions, will reverberate for some time to come.
Secrecy and low levels of accountability – or in Morrison’s case, no accountability at all – are the hallmarks of autocratic societies, and are not the basis of democratic governments. It is of great concern that two journalists from News Corporation knew of these arrangements at the time, which remained a secret to everyone except for Morrison, David Hurley, the Attorney–General, the Minister for Health – and certainly remained a secret to the Australian public.
For sure, these two journalists are the reason why the public now knows about Morrison’s secret appointments, but they sat on this knowledge for well over two years, and decided to release it only after Morrison and the Coalition was out of government, and safe in the knowledge that it wouldn’t spoil the Coalition’s re-election chances at the 2022 federal election.
Australia’s mainstream media is among the most mediocre and corrupt in the western world, and this is another example of how vested interests will always act to protect conservative governments and leaders, even when there is clear evidence they have acted improperly and, possible, corruptly.
The only clear course of action is for Morrison to resign from Parliament, and Hurley to resign from the position of Governor–General: there is no public trust for either of them and both of their positions are untenable.
And should Labor repeal the Stage 3 tax cuts? Morally, ethically and economically, yes, they should. It’s a tax cut legislated by the Coalition, it’s not Labor policy, and it’s not a part of the Labor Party’s philosophy to provide massive tax cuts to high income earners and virtually nothing to low and middle income earners.
So, what are they waiting for? The big issue is that, historically, any politician or political party that repeals a promised tax cut is asking for political trouble, irrespective of how valid or economically responsible it might be for the circumstances of the day. It gives the mainstream media – most of whom would be the beneficiaries of tax cuts – and the Opposition of the day to weaponise against the Labor Party, and they’d be shouting about it from the rooftops everyday until the next election.
The Labor Party doesn’t have enough political capital to repeal the Stage 3 tax cuts and, perhaps, no party every would. For the Albanese government, keeping the Stage 3 tax cuts is the lesser of two problems: they’ll have to recoup the $157 billion of lost revenue in other ways.
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A lull in politics gives us some time to assess how the political parties are travelling, and since the May election result, most of the focus how been placed on the Coalition – the messages that it can take from their election loss and how they can become a better political party and return to office at some point in the near future.
But what are the lessons for the Labor Party? The did win the election, but victory tends to gloss over any problems a political party might have, and move those problems into the ‘too-hard’ basket. But both major political parties received record low primary votes in 2022 and while it’s possible to win elections through strategic preference voting flows, these types of election victories are difficult to navigate.
While it’s difficult to see the Liberal–National Coalition gaining enough traction over the next three years to pick up those 18 seats it needs to win the 2025 election, it’s easier to see Labor losing seats to Greens or other independent candidates. It’s something they need to be careful of, and their main opponents at the next election might be the Australian Greens and teal-styled independents, and not the Coalition.
And after being thoroughly outplayed on the Climate Change Bill, Peter Dutton has tried to get the Coalition into the climate change debates by throwing in nuclear energy into the mix, even though countless government reports have established that nuclear is not a viable industry in Australia. Including a report the Coalition commissioned in 2019, less than two years ago, which confirmed all of the findings of previous government reports.
If the Coalition had the courage of its convictions, it would have installed nuclear power many years ago – they’ve been in office for 51 of the past 73 years – as well as installing a nuclear reactor in each of their electorates. But they didn’t and never will. The time for nuclear energy in Australia was in the 1960s, and that time has passed. In 2022, it’s a conservative tool to wedge Labor and cause political trouble: that’s all it is.
It’s the gift that keeps giving to NSW Labor – John Barilaro, the man who is now claiming he’s “the victim” in the New York Trade Commissioner debacle, arguing that just because he changed the job from a public service appointment to a political appointment, it can’t be possibly argued that it was purely to benefit himself. Even though – lucky man! – he ended up being benefitted and was appointed as the New York Trade Commissioner. All purely on merit, apparently.
The worst part of this is that these political figures expect the public to believe these fantastic stories and accept them as truth. Politics in NSW has been corrupt for a long time, and it’s hard to see this changing. And Victoria is not too far behind, with corruption and misconduct apparent in both the government, and the opposition. Why is there so much corruption in state politics?
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The details for the Voice To Parliament have been released by the Prime Minister, and it’s three simple changes to the Constitution, but already, conservatives are circling the wagons and claiming that that it’s a document that has kept Australia safe since 1901 and is too precious to change.
But it’s an exclusionary document; it was founded on a racist agenda from yesterday and Australia is now a far more sophisticated society than when it was founded in the early part of the twentieth century. There is some resistance from within the Indigenous community, and from different sides of the political spectrum – Senator Jacinta Price has suggested it does nothing to address disadvantage, so she’ll actively campaign against it, while Senator Lidia Thorpe has suggested a Treaty and a truth telling commission should come first. But surely governments can work on more than one issue at a time: why not implement a Voice To Parliament and address disadvantage at the same time? The two processes are not mutually exclusive.
The problem with constitutional recognition of the Voice To Parliament is that it has to be decided – through a referendum – by a system that ignored those rights in the first place. But 250 Indigenous leaders and elders from all around Australia have requested this voice, and it’s because of this reason that it should be supported, and should offer a clearer pathway towards a Treaty and reconciliation.
The state of the economy is becoming more dire and, once again, the Labor Party finds itself in government at a time of severe economic problems. They were in office during World War I, The Great Depression and World War II; the oil crisis in the early 1970s; the 1983 recession; the world recession of the early 1990s; the global financial crisis from 2008; and now, the pandemic economy and massive government national debt.
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is laying out the economic narrative of the difficult circumstances. The Treasurer needs to be in control of the politics of the economy, as well as the economic output: it’s not just a case where some fine words and Shakespearian delivery can make all the problems go away. Different narratives need to be provided to the electorate; the business community; bankers, the money markets; the share markets. And if any of those areas decided that Chalmers is not up to the job, he’s going to be in for a rough ride over the next parliamentary term. We think that he is up to the job, but which economic levers will he use?
His job – and Labor’s – will be made easier by the current performances of the Coalition, which is finding the transition from government into Opposition quite difficult. And recent opinion polls are also confirming how poorly the Coalition is travelling, who seem determined to ignore the messages they received from the electorate at the May federal election – to paraphrase James Carville, ‘it’s the climate, stupid’.
Peter Dutton refused to support Labor’s Climate Change Bill, assuming that forcing them to deal with the Australian Greens – just like Labor did in 2009 and walked away with nothing – would create mayhem, and the Coalition would reap the political benefits on yet another carcass of a discared climate change policy: anything to kick start the climate change wars.
The only problem: the Greens supported Labor’s Bill and will pass it in the Senate. Dutton was defeated on ideas, on policy, and on politics. If this is the best the Coalition can do, they might be in for a long stint in Opposition.
Anthony Albanese, while he was Opposition leader, declared he would be constructive and support the government wherever possible, especially during a pandemic crisis. Constructive, not de-structive.
Today, Anthony Albanese is Prime Minister. There might be lesson in here for the Coalition, if only they are brave enough to look for it.
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How many political staffers does it take to change a piece of legislation? Independent MPs have been outraged about the Prime Minister’s decision to reduce the number of political advisers from four down to one – which means they will have a total staff of five – and decided to take their outrage directly to the media.
But what is the correct number? Some MPs could have a staff of 100 and still be quite incompetent: others seem to be effective and efficient with the bare minimum of political staff. And in the previous parliament, Liberal Party staffers were caught having sex in the notorious parliamentary “prayer room: others decided to masturbate on the desk of their box and photograph themselves in the act. Obviously, some staffers have too much time on their hands. Can a compromise be reached? Perhaps two political advisors would make this issue go away but it’s not something that’s resonating with the public.
And is Anthony Albanese spending too much time overseas and not enough on the domestic agenda? The media is making a big deal of it, labelling the Prime Minister as “Airbus Albo” but perhaps if they understood that Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison all travelled far more than Albanese in a comparable period, they might keep quiet.
And the Roe v Wade decision from 1973 has been overturned by the US Supreme Court – it was a landmark decision then, and a landmark decision now to overturn a precedent that has directed abortion law reform all around the world. Will this decision influence Australian politics at all? It’s unlikely: according to opinions polls, 81% of people in Australia support the right for women to freely access abortion services. But 61% of people in the US are also supportive, yet Roe v Wade has been overturned. It shows that women’s rights and human rights always need to be fought hard for, not only to achieve them, but maintain them.
Senator Hollie Hughes has made the claim that the Liberal Party lost the “youth vote” at the 2022 election because of “Marxist teachers” who, apparently, have infiltrated Australian society. What senators such as Hollie Hughes always fail to answer is if Marxist teachers, socialists and unions have caused so much mayhem, why has the Liberal–National Coalition held government for 20 of the past 26 years? It’s an intellectual paucity that has no boundaries.
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The Australian Greens have had their most successful election campaign ever – four seats in the House of Representatives, 12 Senators and 12.25% of the primary vote all across Australia. These are excellent figures and a promising result for progressive politics.
But how well will they be able to work with the new Labor Government? To pass their legislation, Labor will need the support of these 12 Greens Senators – and one other, likely to be independent Senator David Pocock – but what will Labor need to give up to get the support of the Greens, and how will the Greens compromise their agendas to get the approval of Labor?
Around 80 per cent of Greens preferences flow to the Labor Party, and these preferences are critical for Labor in the House of Representatives. And what do the Greens receive in support? Public animosity, if the comments from National Secretary Paul Erickson are any guide, when he suggested the Greens spend most of their time criticising Labor achievements and downplaying their progressive credentials.
It would be better if the negotiations between Labor and the Greens are fruitful and result in outcomes in the public interest. Each party needs to maximise their own interests, and push their own agendas, but after nine years of policy paralysis provided by the Liberal–National Coalition government between 2013 and 2022, it’s essential Labor and the Greens resolve their differences and provide the community with government that acts in their interest.
The 2022 federal election is well and truly over, but the new Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton, wants to fight this election all over again: climate wars, culture wars, blame games and asserting that he didn’t see a need to change very much of what the Coalition offered at this recent election. The former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, did once say “the lady’s not for turning”, but that was Thatcher, and Peter Dutton ain’t no Margaret Thatcher.
It’s an odd position for a new leader to adopt, especially after a thumping election loss, where the issues the Coalition presented to the electorate were comprehensively rejected. But perhaps the man’s not for turning, and is prepared to suffer the political consequences for his lack of action.
And the state of NSW always has difficulty shedding its reputation as the ‘state of corruption’, this time, it’s the former Deputy Premier, John Barilaro, who’s taken up a trade commissioner position to the United States, a position he created while he was in the NSW Government. The position had been offered to another more highly credentialed person, but then Barilaro resigned from politics in October 2021, the offer to the other more highly credentialed person was rescinded and – can you believe it – eight months later, Barilaro is offered the $500,000 job.
Yes, it is unbelievable, but this is New South Wales, where anything goes. We have a feeling the NSW ICAC might be busy with a new investigation, and it could take some time to unravel what actually took place. And, it has the potential to bring down yet another NSW Premier, Dominic Perrottet.
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The biggest war is not the one in Ukraine – there are no generals in this war, there are no medals to hand out, and it’s possibly a war without end. And, of course, it’s a war that’s been concocted by the mainstream media and the Opposition, mainly to put pressure on the new Labor government.
Yes, it’s the energy war, which is a war on public sensibilities and could end up being a war on the credibility of the media.
For nine years, the media barely focused on the failures of the Liberal–National government to formulate an energy policy between 2013–2022 and now they’re shaking their fists at Anthony Albanese for creating not just an energy crisis, but firing the first shots in a fictitious energy war. And it’s not just energy: refugees are arriving by boat!
For nine years, these were “on water matters” that couldn’t be reported, but now it’s open slather, with media reports now claiming that people smugglers in Sri Lanka are telling their clients Australia is now very welcoming of boat arrivals.
One area the new Labor government can act upon is Julian Assange: he’s been languishing in a British jail for over three years and Albanese – when he was Leader of the Opposition – did say that he couldn’t see the point of the continuing incarceration of Assange. Well, now he’s the Prime Minister, and now is the time to act. And also cease the prosecution of four whistleblowers in Australia – Jeff Morris, Richard Boyle, David McBride and Bernard Collaery – there’s no point to these prosecutions either, and it’s time to drop these cases.
After each election, all political parties – whether they win or lose – assess where they went right, and where they went wrong. And the National Secretary of the Labor Party, Paul Erickson, has outlined all the reasons for why Labor won the election, and why the Coalition lost – eight key points – and the Coalition would be wise to listen in and take on these points. Free advice is probably the best advice.
And is Scott Morrison the worst Prime Minister in Australia’s history? It’s an easy answer: a Prime Minister who won’t be remembered for very much, squandered a massive amount of political capital built up during the pandemic, kept on repeating the same mistakes over and over again – and didn’t learn from any of these mistakes – and then lost an election the Coalition didn’t need to lose and shouldn’t have lost. If only they displayed some level of competence. But they didn’t.
So, yes. An easy choice for the worst Prime Minister. Come on down, Scott Morrison, come on down…
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How much can a new government be held responsible for the mistakes of the previous government? And how much time should this new government be given to resolve all of these problems? Easy answer: if it’s an incoming Labor government, they are cause of all these problems from the moment they are elected, and must resolve these problems within, say, three weeks of assuming office.
The rules for the Coalition are different – they can endlessly remain in office, cause as many problems as they like, eschew responsibilities and then shout from the sidelines once they get turfed into Opposition, and demand the Labor Party fix all the problems they caused over an ineffective and inefficient nine year period in government.
And their task is a great deal easier with a mainstream media that is defiantly loyal to the Coalition, and will support any ridiculous statements put out under the new leadership of Peter Dutton. And, true to form, the Liberal and National parties will behave like an opposition, whether they are in government or actually in opposition, and now is their time to shine as an opposition, and long may they stay in this position.
The latest round of inanity is the idea that, somehow, the Labor government is illegitimate because 68 per cent of the electorate didn’t vote for them. This is refering to the 32 per cent primary vote the Labor Party received at the 2022 federal election but – history lesson – elections are not won by the parties with the most primary votes, or even the most preferential votes: it’s the party which wins the most seats out of the 151 seats on offer. It has always been like this and in every democratic system in the world. And, this time around, Labor won 77 seats, which means they can form government.
It’s a pity the Liberal Party doesn’t understand this basic electoral arithmetic.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is doing what good governments should do: get on with the tasks at hand, including cleaning up the mess from over the past nine years. Already within three weeks, the new Labor government has resolved many of the diplomatic issues in the Pacific island region; created a stronger link with Indonesia; signposted its intentions on Indigenous affairs; released the Murugappan family back into the community.
Of course, this is only a small part of the work of government, but it signals an intention of a new government wanting to get on with the work of government and not waste a moment in office.
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The final assessment is in and the Labor Party has won 77 seats, enough to form government in its own right, without needing the support from the crossbench to pass legislation. But is this the best outcome?
The number of crossbenchers has risen to 16 and it would be wise for Labor to engage this substantial group of MPs, and keep that buffer between them and the Liberal and National parties, who are languishing behind with 58 seats.
The new Labor Ministry has been finalised and there are 10 women in a Cabinet of 22, and 19 women in the greater Ministry of 41 – eyebrows were raised when Tanya Plibersek was announced as the Minister for Environment, the media quick to claim this was a demotion, but with the environment and climate change issues featuring prominently during the election campaign, isn’t it wise to have your best people in the most difficult cabinet positions?
And the main message from the Prime Minister Albanese to the Labor Caucus? Don’t waste a minute while you’re in government, and focus on the many difficult tasks ahead which, based on the amount of Labor MPs were in office during the Rudd–Gillard years between 2010–13, must be a reference to the division and Labor naval gazing which ultimately threw away hard-earned government, and gave it to an inept Liberal–National government for nine long years.
And if Labor shows the competence that has been so lacking during the past nine years of Coalition rule, it should be office for some time into the future – governments since 1932 have been rewarded with a second term but, of course, it’s hard to predict what the future holds, and the issues that overcome the Coalition, could easily afflict Labor in government, if they’re not careful enough and diligent enough to focus on the important issues that affect people’s lives.
But when stumped for a response, it’s always best to channel Billy Bragg. Albanese continued his cultural references from his youth to provide guidance, this time a quote from “To Have and To Have Not”: ‘Just because you’re going forwards, doesn’t mean I’m going backwards”. Keep the red flag flying comrade, this is socialism of the heart.
The Liberal Party has new leadership – Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley – but it’s an unspectacular duo and seems more like a collection of placeholders and seat warmers, rather than the people who can provide a vision and dynamic for an election winning formula in 2025 and beyond. Newly installed leaders just after an election loss rarely survive by the time of the next election, although the current Prime Minister – Anthony Albanese – is the only one to have survived and gone on to win their first election as leader.
So, it can be done, but will it? Dutton wants to be seen as a renaissance man, but he’s a clear link between the Howard, Abbott and Morrison eras, and the electorate just voted out that style of government. It will be a long road back into office for the Liberal Party and it’s best that they use this time wisely and embark on the reform that they’ve neglected for at least the past 15 years.
And if new leadership is good enough for the Liberal Party, it’s good enough for the National Party, who have chosen David Littleproud as their new leader, dumping Barnaby Joyce, who returned to the leadership in early 2021 for reasons which might be only apparent to himself.
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The 2022 federal election turned out to be one of the interesting and exciting results in Australian history. Not that you’d get an understanding of this while watching any of the mainstream media coverage on election night: their presentation and analysis of the result was as abysmal as their campaign coverage and, as soon as it became obvious their favoured political team was not going to win – far from it – it was time to start picking holes at Labor and what went wrong for Anthony Albanese. Even though Labor was the victor and Albanese had become Australia’s 31st Prime Minister.
Early on in the evening, it appeared Scott Morrison might be on track for a repeat of his 2019 victory, but as the night moved on, the Coalition was nowhere within reach of government, or even being able to cobble up an arrangement with the expanded crossbench to reach that magical number of 76 seats.
This is the largest ever crossbench ever in federal politics and while it might not be a strong endorsement of the new Labor government, it’s an excellent result for progressive politics: a government that is prepared to make progress on Indigenous recognition, end the climate change wars, create an anti-corruption commission, clean up politics, improve women’s safety; and a mainly progressive crossbench that will create a buffer between this Labor government and the Coalition opposition.
Already, the Coalition is reaching for a continuation of link with the Howard government through the likely appointment of Peter Dutton as the leader of the Liberal Party – therefore, becoming the leader of the opposition – when the electorate had just voted for a break from this style of conservative government and towards a new style of politics that works in the interests of people, and not against them.
This election result is a clear demarcation point between the divisive and destructive politics of the Liberal–National government over the past nine years. Everything must change, and the electorate has voted for change.
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And so, it has come to this. The day of the 2022 federal election. Week 6 of the campaign wasn’t that different to the previous five weeks: an array of announcements from both sides of politics, a campaign launch from the Liberal–National Coalition – held in the final week so they could maximise their funding from the public coffers before they had to start paying for the campaign themselves – and a clamour from the media about Labor Party policy costings, ‘gotchas’ and the screams of “how ya gonna pay for that?”
Before we can talk about winners and losers from this campaign, the biggest losers – by far – have been the mainstream media, and it’s almost like their swansong as far as their influence in political affairs is concerned. Labor’s additional costings were calculated at $7.4 billion – seemingly a small amount compared to the $1,000 billion of national government debt accumulated by the federal government – and while everyone wanted to know how on earth Labor was going to “pay for this”, no one seemed to be too concerned about a $5.5 billion fee for the cancelled French submarines project – for absolutely nothing in return. The media needs to be reformed in Australia, but how will this happen?
And many analysts are reluctant to announce who they believe will win the election – still suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, after the 2019 election result proved everyone wrong, including opinion pollsters.
We have no fear though, and our fearless prediction is Labor should win this election – or at least be in a position to form a minority government with key independents. The polls are all pointing to a Labor victory – as they did in 2019 –but, aside from this, we need to look at the evidence. This has been a corrupt, inept and incompetent government, if not for the entire duration of Coalition rule since 2013, at least in this term of office (again, this is also what was said in 2019).
And if another Coalition victory does come to fruition, we may as well throw away the keys to democracy: if Labor cannot win an election after this display of corruption, mismanagement, division and disorganisation from the federal government, there’s no point in holding elections any more.
That’s how important this election is.
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