Author: Paul Goldman



  • A simplistic 18th century math formula, not the latest complex Big Tech algorithm, is the greatest growing threat to our democracy. This formula got scratched out using a quill pen in 1787. Then it was used in 1789 to elect George Washington as our first president. This enduring presidential algo is found in Article II, Section I, of the U.S. Constitution.

    The term “Electoral College” doesn’t appear there. But the basic math does. Each state has two senators. This equals two electoral votes, regardless of population. In addition, a state gets representatives in Congress based on population. Each representative equals one additional electoral vote. The District of Columbia is allocated three electors. The Electoral College majority next year will be 270.

    In the two-party era, four presidential candidates finished second in the popular vote but won a majority of the electors and thus the White House: Republican Rutherford Hayes (1876), Republican Benjamin Harrison (1888), Republican George W. Bush (2000) and Republican Donald Trump (2016).

    Yet these elections failed to sufficiently highlight the Electoral College’s danger to our democracy. We believe the 2020 presidential results should be a wake-up call.

    Trump’s strategy for winning a third straight GOP nomination is therefore rational, not crazy as his detractors claim. Do whatever it takes to win over GOP primary voters, then hope the Electoral College math works in his favor.

    But this first requires an honest discussion about former President Trump. He says he is the greatest Republican vote getter of all time. So do many of his supporters.

    Fifteen GOP incumbents were nominated for a new term. Nine won reelection, all winning a popular vote majority. Seven by landslide margins. Only six, including Trump, were rejected by voters. Of these six, Trump is the only one to have received less than 47 percent of the popular vote every time he ran.

    Trump counters by saying he did hugely better in 2020 but got cheated. Yet Trump’s own facts belie this claim. He correctly says he won 20 states in 2016 by a margin of 10 percent or greater and then again in 2020. He doesn’t claim any fraud in these states. Indeed, there were well over 3 million more votes in these top Trump states. Yet his combined winning margins were roughly the same. Thus, the obvious question: If he did so much better in 2020 than in 2016, why isn’t this reflected in his best states?

    The answer is clear. Eight presidential elections have taken place since America entered the post-Cold War era. In chronological order, the GOP nominee received the following popular vote percentages: 37.5 percent, 40.7 percent, 47.9 percent, 50.7 percent, 45.6 percent, 47.1 percent, 45.9 percent and 46.8 percent.

    Trump’s alleged political prowess is actually in line with the average GOP candidate. Democrats won the popular vote in the latest four elections by the following margins: 9.5 million, 5.0 million, 2.9 million, 7.1 million. Trump’s losing margin increased by over 4 million in 2020. The biggest majority chunks came in Hillary Clinton’s 14 strongest jurisdictions. These voters aren’t going for Trump in 2024. This means: To win a popular vote majority, Trump needs 7 million more votes in the remaining closely contested states. This is highly implausible without a Democratic meltdown.

    Trump’s strategy for winning a third straight GOP nomination is therefore rational, not crazy as his detractors claim. Do whatever it takes to win over GOP primary voters, then hope the Electoral College math works in his favor.

    In 2020, Joe Biden won 51.2 percent of the vote. This is a higher percentage than Presidents Truman in 1948, Kennedy in 1960, Nixon in 1968, Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Bush in 2000 and 2004, Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

    And yet: Trump, twice a popular vote loser, almost carried the Electoral College. He lost Arizona by 0.3 percent, Georgia by an even smaller 0.2 percent and Pennsylvania by a mere 1.2 percent. He carried all of them in 2016. A switch of slightly more than 52,000 votes in 2020 in those states would have given Trump four more years.

    Guaranteed: Trump will not win the popular vote in 2024. If nominated, he will become the first presidential candidate in history to be so rejected three consecutive times by the American voting people. Yet he might get back into power, despite never having won the popular vote, much less a majority, in any election.

    A House divided against itself cannot stand, warned Lincoln. The states are now split on whether to retain the Electoral College or move toward electing the president by a popular vote majority.

    We could be headed for a constitutional crisis in 2024 — caused not by computer-driven artificial intelligence but by a math formula cooked up on a hot day in Philly by individuals who were probably just trying to get a consensus so they could go home.

    This post was originally published on Common Dreams.



  • Are America’s national interests best served by our stance on the Ukraine-Russia war? It is striking that within the Democratic Party, with its long tradition of anti-war activism, there are no prominent voices raising this question.

    President Dwight Eisenhower warned against the influence of the military industrial complex on war policy. But he would likely fear speaking out today, even though the doomsday clock now says America’s stance on the Ukraine-Russian war has helped put all of us in the greatest peril ever. All the NATO countries disagree. As do the major newspaper editorial boards. Polls say about 90 percent of Democrats back continuing to give aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.

    As a consequence, no potential Democratic presidential contender dares to oppose the policy. Such public opposition would be labeled disloyal, even pro-Russian.

    Yet history says the American people are being ill served by this chloroform of conformity. This is true based on an unimpeachable source: the American people.

    In 1952, Eisenhower won the presidency by promising to change Democratic President Harry Truman’s Korean War policy. Even after Truman’s disastrous showing in the New Hampshire primary, Democrats stuck with the status quo. Ike won in a landslide.

    In 1968, when little known Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minn.) announced his intention to challenge Democratic President Lyndon Johnson’s Vietnam War policy, he met universal derision from the party establishment. They declared him a certain loser, indeed a flake.

    A few weeks after a disastrous showing in the New Hampshire primary, LBJ quit the race. Democrats nominated Johnson war apologist Vice President Hubert Humphrey to the loud opposition of antiwar activists. Humphrey seemed a certain loser until Johnson suddenly agreed with his critics. LBJ said his emissaries would attend formal peace negotiations. Polls soon had the race statistically tied. But Humphrey lost a close election to Richard Nixon.

    In 1992, polls suggested support from usually loyal Democratic voters for Republican President George H.W. Bush’s Gulf war policy made him unbeatable for reelection. All the big-name Democratic hopefuls declined to run. But little-known Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton rejected the poll results. He won the 1992 contest by the biggest electoral margin of any Democratic challenger since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932.

    As has been famously observed, you make peace with your enemies, not your friends.

    In 2004, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) originally backed Republican President George W. Bush’s Iraq War stance. But little-known former Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) launched the longest long shot antiwar presidential candidacy in four decades. He seemed poised to win until Kerry cleverly morphed from hawk to dove. Kerry won the nomination but lost to Bush in the closest reelection bid since 1916.

    In 2008 Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) seemed on a fool’s mission challenging Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) for the Democratic nomination. But the underdog Illinoisian had opposed the Iraq War while Clinton supported Bush’s war resolution. Had she been willing to admit a mistake, she almost certainly would have stopped Obama’s campaign in its tracks. But she refused. He won.

    Obama’s general election opponent had won the GOP nomination in part due to his support for Bush’s Iraq war policy. Obama won with the biggest Democratic margin of any challenger since FDR.

    In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces had been assumed an easy winner. The West therefore gave Ukraine the obligatory lip service. Russia had nuclear weapons, and the U.S. had no interest in poking the Russian bear. But the Russian army proved grossly overrated. Ukraine forces, led by formerly derided ex-comedian President Volodymyr Zelensky, demonstrated unexpected prowess.

    However, without the West’s money and arms, Ukraine would have eventually lost. For nearly a year, America and its allies have funded the war against Russia. This put Putin in an increasingly difficult position both on the battlefield and at home.

    Russia uses increasingly more powerful weapons in turn requiring the West to send ever more powerful weaponry to the Ukrainians. The end game is unclear. Peace must eventually come. But it will likely require the United States to make a commitment of hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild Ukraine.

    The 2024 election cycle has only just begun. But the prospects are not good that we will have a serious presidential candidate who dares to disagree with current war policy. Never before has the chloroform of conformity been inhaled so deeply.

    As has been famously observed, you make peace with your enemies, not your friends.

    We can assume that any treaty will include America agreeing to foot the biggest part of the reconstruction costs. This amount may far exceed the funds needed to rebuild the schools for all the poor children in America. It may exceed the funds required to provide training for all the workers who will be put out of jobs by artificial intelligence.

    We have a $31.5 trillion national debt, in good measure due to our military spending and forgiving trillions in debt as an incentive for other countries to forgo military solutions to problems.

    It is not disloyal to either party or to the country to question a dangerous situation no one in America would have wanted a year ago. Asking the necessary questions is the opposite of disloyalty; it is the height of patriotism.

    This post was originally published on Common Dreams.