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This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.
This post was originally published on Radio Free.
Many people who never liked Donald Trump are predictably outraged by many of his actual and potential foreign policy changes. These include new tariffs on goods from countries with which the US had, until the current administration, enjoyed free trade or Most Favored Nation status, including Mexico, Canada, and the European Union. In addition, he announced imposition or intended imposition of increased sanctions against Iran, Russia and potentially other nations. He also ordered the suspension of all foreign aid except to Israel and Egypt. (The order is currently blocked in federal court.) But his most outrageous proposals are undoubtedly to annex Canada and Greenland, “take back” the Panama Canal, and acquire and develop the Gaza Strip after removing its current Palestinian population.
All of this and more has understandably been used to justify the worst fears of those who predicted disaster. Panic and hysteria are not an uncommon response in some quarters of the press and social media. This is by no means entirely unjustified, but such reactions fail to appreciate what Trump himself perceives as the method behind his madness. He loves panic and hysteria, which he considers useful, if not essential, to his “art of the deal.”
Donald Trump is by nature a businessman, more specifically a salesperson. He makes deals by persuasion, coercion, temptation, reward, and the entire panoply of inducements to achieve an outcome that may or may not be what he or the other participants in the negotiation initially intended. If he makes an outrageous proposal, he expects a counterproposal, and if his outrageous proposal helps to shape the counterproposal, so much the better. If he issues a directive that results in disaster, he expects pushback and revision. That – for better or worse – is how he operates. He doesn’t feel that he needs a lot of analysis or expertise. He depends on others to push and pull the negotiation into the solution of the problem, which can be less or more, better or worse, than either of the negotiators initially intended. His role is to move things along and break the deadlocks. The result may not always be the perfect solution, but it’s often a solution of some kind.
One of the first successes of the Trump administration has been the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. One can only imagine the threats and promises that were made for Trump to achieve this just prior to his inauguration. Did he promise Bibi that he could resume full or even intensified genocide after a short pause, which would allow Itamar Ben Gvir to reverse his resignation from the governing coalition and permit Netanyahu’s to further his own ambitions)? Perhaps. But now Trump’s aim seems to be to prolong the ceasefire by assuring that the US will transfer the Palestinians to other countries (mainly Egypt and Jordan). Never mind that Egypt and Jordan have refused to accept the Palestinians, who have themselves refused to go, and that most or all US allies also oppose the plan. The objective is to promise whatever is necessary to prolong the ceasefire, and to keep coming up with ways to do that, no matter how unrealistic. In this case, the promise is to rid Israel of the Palestinians without even having to use the Israeli military or resources. What more could they want? This buys Israel’s cooperation, and the problems and contradictions get kicked down the road. Donald Trump wants to be seen as someone who can do the impossible, even if his methods are highly, highly unorthodox and coercive, such as a proposal to cut off foreign aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don’t accept.
Thus far, there is no doubt that the ceasefire is a success, if only a qualified one, with many violations (mostly by Israel, which is less than enthusiastic about it). However, the same cannot necessarily be said about Trump’s suspension of the operations and funding of the US Agency for International Development. The humanitarian aid and technological development provided by USAID is a real benefit to the societies that receive it, and it is plausible that people will die without it, especially the medical supplies, equipment and services that preserve life and health in underserved areas. On the other hand, that aid comes with strings attached. USAID, as well as many NGOs that are at least partly funded privately, are frequently a cover for CIA spying, black ops and regime change operations. The overthrow of Ukraine’s elected government in 2014 was largely funded and enabled by USAID funds directed by Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. The suspension of the USAID program is therefore not entirely unwelcome.
In any case, we can expect such strange and risky moves to be part of the next four years. In Trump’s last administration, he came in largely unprepared. This time, he appears, for better or worse, to be taking charge. It is likely to be a learning experience for all concerned, and the results are likely to be less predictable for us all, as well.
The post Cutthroat Diplomacy in the Trump Era first appeared on Dissident Voice.This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.
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The future of USAID, the U.S. Agency for International Development, is uncertain after Elon Musk said President Trump had agreed to shut it down. The Tesla billionaire and presidential adviser has inserted himself into the inner workings of the federal government, gaining access to sensitive computer systems and making sweeping changes for which he has no clear authority. Over the weekend, the USAID website and social media channels were taken offline, and two top security officials at the aid agency were placed on administrative leave after attempting to block members of Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, from accessing USAID’s classified systems, including personnel files. Musk claimed in a series of posts on his website X that USAID is a “viper’s nest of radical-left Marxists who hate America,” and staff were instructed to stay away from the agency’s Washington headquarters on Monday. “What we are seeing … are attacks against it as a corrupt and illegal organization by people who know nothing about it. They are manufacturing these things out of whole cloth,” says former senior USAID staffer Jeremy Konyndyk, now president of Refugees International. “It’s really important to understand that a lot of what USAID does saves lives every single day.”
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MAE SOT, Thailand – Groups helping victims of Myanmar’s turmoil are struggling to provide assistance after the U.S. put a 90-day freeze on nearly all foreign aid, one organization said on Thursday, as the U.N. warned of looming hunger five years after the military ousted an elected government.
More than 3.5 million people have been displaced in Myanmar due to war between a junta that seized power in 2021, which is backed by China and sanctioned by Western governments, and a loose alliance of pro-democracy and ethnic minority groups battling to end military rule.
In the 2024 fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 30, the U.S. provided $141 million in humanitarian aid to Myanmar, much of which is channeled through groups working on the Thai-Myanmar border.
The U.S. State Department on Friday announced the freeze on nearly all aid in order to give the State Department time to review programs “to ensure they are efficient and consistent with U.S. foreign policy under the America First agenda.”
In the days since, stop-work orders have been sent by the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, to implementing partners ranging from media organizations to clinics.
One aid worker, who declined to be identified, said about 20 relief groups providing healthcare with USAID assistance along the Thai-Myanmar border were at risk of being suspended.
Nai Aue Mon, program director of the Human Rights Foundation of Monland group,which documents human rights violations, said communication and travel costs, salaries and stipends would be hit.
“To be honest, it’s widespread, it’s huge,” Nai Aue Mon said of the impact of the aid freeze on humanitarian groups in areas under the administration of the anti-junta Karen National Union in Kayin state and to the south in Mon state, affecting thousands of people.
“It significantly impacts those groups … nearly every organization is more or less impacted by this executive order.”
Groups might have some funds in reserve and were scrambling for other sources of donations but the outlook was grim, he said.
“As far as I know, my organization, we still have some resources but we don’t know after that,” Nai Aue Mon said. “We’re definitely struggling a lot.”
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Some 100,000 ethnic Karen people from eastern Myanmar war zones have lived in camps on the Thai side for decades and people fleeing more recent repression in Myanmar’s towns and cities have also sought shelter on the border.
Refugee camp hospitals were having to discharge patients because health workers had been suspended from duties, a health worker speaking on the condition of anonymity for security reasons told RFA.
Thailand will help fill the gap in funding for the camps on its soil, at least for the time being, a government minister said, according to The Bangkok Post.
“We cannot abandon or chase them away since they have lived here in the camps for a long time,” Thai Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin told the newspaper.
“We cannot just talk about refugees who have been affected … All kinds of healthcare and assistance must be provided to other groups of people who live in this country.”
The freeze in U.S. aid comes as Myanmar is spiraling into a humanitarian crisis, aid groups say.
“A staggering 15 million people are expected to face hunger in 2025, up from 13.3 million last year,” the World Food Programme said in a report on Wednesday.
Almost 20 million people, or nearly one in three people in Myanmar, will need humanitarian assistance in 2025, the U.N. food agency said.
“Growing conflict across the country, access restrictions, a crumbling economy and successive weather-related crises are driving record levels of hunger,” said the WFP Country Director Michael Dunford.
“The world cannot afford to overlook Myanmar’s escalating crisis. Without immediate and increased international support, hundreds of thousands more will be pushed to the brink.”
Edited by RFA Staff.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by Kiana Duncan for RFA.
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On the Thai-Myanmar border, sick patients are being sent home from hospital. In Laos, school meals have been interrupted. And in Cambodia, hundreds of staff at the agency responsible for clearing land mines have been furloughed.
The U.S. State Department on Friday announced a 90-day freeze on nearly all foreign aid, followed one day later by a suspension of global demining programs, according to the New York Times. The pause is intended to give the State Department time to review programs “to ensure they are efficient and consistent with U.S. foreign policy under the America First agenda,” according to the announcement notice.
In the days since, stop-work orders have been sent by the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, to local implementing partners ranging from media organizations to health clinics.
The U.S. is one of Southeast Asia’s largest providers of aid, and its withdrawal will be felt most in the region’s poorest nations: Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. Japan provides more to those countries, but the U.S. has gradually increased aid to Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar from $380 million in 2015 to almost $520 million in 2022, according to Grace Stanhope, a research associate at the Lowy Center who works on its Southeast Asia Aid Map.
Groups that work with Tibetans, Uyghurs and North Koreans are also feeling the pinch. These include the Tibetan government-in-exile, which is based in Dharamshala, India, and which supports the diaspora community.
On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a waiver exempting “life-saving” humanitarian aid, including medicine, shelter and food aid.
While both the order and State Department notice make clear that programs can restart once reviews are complete, the impact in many countries has been immediate. RFA spoke with government officials and NGO staffers to better understand what an aid freeze looks like on the ground.
The Department declined to respond to specific questions over email.
Myanmar:
Saturday marks the fourth anniversary of the Feb. 1, 2021 coup, in which the military overthrew the democratically elected government, imprisoning its top leadership. The spiraling civil war that has ensued has displaced 3.4 million people and expanded the refugee population in neighboring Thailand.
Within the days of the stop-work order, a range of U.S.-funded healthcare services began grinding to a halt. In fiscal year 2024, which runs from Oct. 1, 2023 to Sept. 30, 2024, the U.S. provided $141 million in humanitarian aid to Myanmar.
“In-patients at the refugee camp hospital were discharged and told to return home because health workers have been suspended from their duties,” a health worker speaking on the condition of anonymity due to security reasons told RFA. Volunteers were trying to relocate critical patients and send pregnant women in labor to external hospitals, The Irrawaddy reported.
The worker added that approximately 20 civil relief groups providing healthcare with USAID assistance along the Thai-Myanmar border are now at risk of being suspended. A Reuters report said the International Rescue Committee, which funds the clinics, told them they would have to shut down by Friday.
Along the Thai-Myanmar border, nine refugee camps provide shelter to nearly 140,000 people.
Inside those camps, schools have already “suffered a huge impact,” said Banyar, founder of the Karenni Human Rights Group. Teacher salaries would have to be halted and a pause on the purchase of textbooks and other school supplies, he said.
Those who work on HIV/AIDS programs said they fear the funding may not resume. According to the CDC there are about 100,000 orphans in Myanmar due to AIDS, and testing and treatment programs have allowed hundreds of thousands to access antiretrovirals as well as lower the likelihood of contracting the virus in the first place.
On Tuesday, the Trump administration issued a waiver permitting distribution of HIV medications, but this does not appear to restart broader preventative programs.
In Bangladesh, where more than 1 million Rohingya who fled violence in Myanmar live in chronically underfunded refugee camps, there has been confusion over whether U.S.-funded food programs will continue. Last week, the Bangladesh government said that USAID would continue to provide food aid, but U.S. and U.N. officials appeared unsure where such information originated, according to a report from BenarNews.
The pause has also already impacted a number of exile media newsrooms, which rely on small U.S. grants to provide open information in a country where journalists are routinely imprisoned, forcing a number of them to suspend staffers.
Laos
U.S.-funded programs in Laos range from maternal health to demining operations, a critical need in a country that remains the most heavily bombed in the world, per capita, as a result of U.S. aerial attacks in the 1960s and 70s during the Vietnam War. Less than 10 percent of land in Laos has been cleared of unexploded ordnance, according to Sera Koulabdara, CEO of Legacies of War, which works on education and advocacy around removal of landmines in Southeast Asia.
“It is absolutely essential that we hold ourselves accountable for the devastation we caused,” she said. “Just this month in Laos, a 36-year-old man was killed while simply cooking, an innocent victim of an American war that continues to plague the country.”
A staffer at an agriculture NGO who spoke on the condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the press told RFA he was doubtful other foreign countries would be able to step in if U.S. funding was pulled.
“After the COVID-19 pandemic, proposing for funding around the globe to support our projects is the biggest challenge — it is very difficult and the amount of the funds is also smaller now,” he said.
The country faces a severe debt crisis that has sent the cost of food and other basic goods skyrocketing. In Houaphan, which is one of the poorest provinces in the country, a school meals program has already had to scale back, according to a teacher who spoke to RFA on the condition of anonymity.
Cambodia
Like Laos, Cambodia still struggles with the legacies of decades of conflict as unexploded ordnance continues to maim and kill. The U.S. halt on funding demining programs is likely to set the government back in its goal to be mine-free by the end of the year.
Heng Ratana, head of the government’s Cambodian Mine Action Center, said the agency receives about $2 million a year from the U.S. government.
As a result of the funding freeze, the center plans to furlough 210 members of its approximately 1,700 workforce nationwide, he told RFA.
“It is a complete shutdown. It is like a forced shutdown,” Heng Ratana said. “We request continued support for the operation because the U.S. funding [agreement] clearly states that it is to clear unexploded ordnance.”
Brian Eyler, the director of the Southeast Asia Program and the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center said the funding pause had impacted his own programs, which focus on the Mekong River as well as broader security issues.
He noted that a report launch planned for this week on how the U.S. could counter cybercrime in Southeast Asia had been halted, though he hoped the freeze would soon be lifted.
Nop Vy, executive director of the Cambodian Journalists’ Association, or CamboJa, said 20 to 30 percent of their funding came from USAID, which the group used to run journalist training programs and help fund the independent media outlet, CamboJA News. In recent years, a number of independent media outlets have shut down or been forced by the government to close, leaving a vacuum in access to open information.
Heng Kimhong, executive director of the Cambodian Youth Network, said that the suspension of U.S. government assistance would reduce some of its activities related to youth empowerment and the ability to protect natural resources. A USAID fact sheet issued last year noted that deforestation contributed heavily to climate change in Cambodia, which is considered particularly prone to natural disaster.
Still, Heng Kimhong said he was “optimistic” funding would be restored as the U.S. is “not a country that only thinks about itself,” he said. “The United States is a country that protects and ensures the promotion of maintaining world order, building democracy, as well as building better respect for human rights.”
Tibet
Tibet’s government-in-exile, the Central Tibetan Administration, or CTA, represents the Tibetan diaspora and administers schools, health centers and government services for Tibetan exiles in India and Nepal.
Several sources speaking on the condition of anonymity told RFA that the suspension affects programs run by the CTA, the Tibetan Parliament and a range of Tibet-related non-governmental organizations, raising concerns over the continuity of key welfare programs supporting Tibetans outside of China.
An upcoming preparatory meeting for the Parliament-in-Exile was postponed as a result of the funding pause, sources told RFA.
“The directive applies uniformly to all foreign aid recipients. Since Tibetan aid has been secured through congressional support and approval, efforts are underway to work with the State Department and relevant agencies to expedite the review and approval process for continued assistance,” Namgyal Choedup, the representative of the Office of Tibet in Washington, told RFA.
Various Tibetan NGOs and activist groups based in India expressed their concerns about the impact of the freeze in foreign assistance programs and said they hoped it would be soon lifted.
Gonpo Dhondup, president of the Tibetan Youth Congress, emphasized the importance of U.S. aid for the Tibetan freedom movement and community stability. Tsering Dolma, president of the Tibetan Women’s Association, said assistance has been crucial for maintaining the exile Tibetan community.
“Despite the 90-day suspension, I hope an alternative arrangement can be made to ensure continued U.S. support,” Tashi, a Tibetan resident in Dharamsala, told RFA.
North Korea
While the U.S. has long banned providing aid to the North Korean government, it has been a supporter of North Korean human rights organizations. Such programs help with global advocacy efforts on behalf of those living inside the closed nation, and also support refugees abroad.
A representative from a North Korean human rights organization, who requested anonymity to speak freely, said the group received the stop-work order from their U.S. funders Saturday and requested an exemption waiver.
“We will not be able to pay staff salaries, making furloughs or contract terminations inevitable. Backpay is also impossible because providing backpay would imply that employees worked during that period.”
Ji Chul-ho, a North Korean escapee who is the director of external relations at the South Korea-based rights organization NAUH, told RFA he worried about the longer term impacts of such a pause.
“While this is said to be a temporary suspension of grant expenditures, I worry that it will lead to a reduction in North Korean human rights activities and make it harder for various organizations to raise their voices collectively,” he said.
Sean Kang, co-founder of the Ohio-based North Korea Human Rights Watch, told RFA a funding pause was hugely disruptive.
“U.S. government projects related to North Korea require meticulous planning and scheduling, maintaining security, and being carried out cautiously over the medium to long term,” he said. “A three-month [pause] in such projects can cause significant disruptions, and if funding is ultimately canceled, all the efforts made so far could be wasted, leading to an even greater loss.”
Reporting by RFA Burmese, RFA Khmer, RFA Korean, RFA Lao, and RFA Tibetan.
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Agreement to surge aid to Gaza shows Israel has been controlling access, lawyers and humanitarian groups say
A provision to increase the aid entering Gaza under the ceasefire is welcome but insufficient, and shows Israel could have allowed more food, medicine and other supplies into the strip during the war, humanitarian and legal experts have said.
The deal agreed this week allows for 600 trucks a day of aid to enter Gaza, where nine out of 10 Palestinians are going hungry and experts warn that famine is imminent in areas. Israel faces accusations it is using starvation as a weapon of war.
Continue reading…This post was originally published on Human rights | The Guardian.
By Daniel Perese of Te Ao Māori News
Māori politicians across the political spectrum in Aotearoa New Zealand have called for immediate aid to enter Gaza following a temporary ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel.
The ceasefire, agreed yesterday, comes into effect on Sunday, January 19.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters said New Zealand welcomed the deal and called for humanitarian aid for the strip.
“There now needs to be a massive, rapid, unimpeded flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.“
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer echoed similar sentiments on behalf of her party, saying, “the destruction of vital infrastructure — homes, schools, hospitals — has decimated communities”.
“This ceasefire must be accompanied by a global effort to rebuild Gaza,” she said.
Teanau Tuiono, Green Party spokesperson for Foreign Affairs, specifically called on Aotearoa to increase its aid to Palestine.
‘Brutal, illegal Israeli occupation’
“[We must] support the reconstruction of Gaza as determined by Palestinians. We owe it to Palestinians who for many years have lived under brutal and illegal occupation by Israeli forces, and are now entrenched in a humanitarian crisis of horrific proportions,” he said.
“The genocide in Gaza, and the complicity of many governments in Israel’s campaign of merciless violence against the Palestinian people on their own land, has exposed serious flaws in the international community’s ability to uphold international law.
“This means our country and others have work to do to rebuild trust in the international system that is meant to uphold human rights and prioritise peace,” said the Green MP.
With tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in the 15 month war, negotiators reached a ceasefire deal yesterday in Gaza for six-weeks, after Hamas agreed to release hostages from the 7 October 2023 attacks in exchange for Palestinian prisoners — many held without charge — held in Israel.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters said this deal would end the “incomprehensible human suffering”.
“The terms of the deal must now be implemented fully. Protection of civilians and the release of hostages must be at the forefront of effort.
“To achieve a durable and lasting peace, we call on the parties to take meaningful steps towards a two-state solution. Political will is the key to ensuring history does not repeat itself,” Peters said in a statement.
Tuiono called it a victory for Palestinians and those within the solidarity movement.
“However, it must be followed by efforts to establish justice and self-determination for Palestinians, and bring an end to Israeli apartheid and the illegal occupation of Palestine.
“We must divest public funds from illegal settlements, recognise the State of Palestine, and join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, just as we joined Ukraine’s case against Russia.”
Ngawera-Packer added that the ceasefire deal did not equal a free Palestine anytime soon.
“We must not forget the larger reality of the ongoing conflict, which is rooted in decades of displacement, violence, and oppression.
“Although the annihilation may be over for now, the apartheid continues. We will continue to call out our government who have done nothing to end the violence, and to end the apartheid.
“We must also be vigilant over these next three days to ensure that Israel will not exploit this window to create more carnage,” Ngarewa-Packer said.
Republished from Te Ao Māori News
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Boston Consulting Group has landed a $90 million contract to deliver a federal government development assistance program that aims to uplift Vietnam’s climate tech and digitalisation capabilities. The Aus4Growth program is the latest in the ‘Aus4’ series of economic development programs, this time focusing on supporting economic growth, trade and investment, clean energy and transport,…
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Chinese authorities in Tibet have forbidden aid workers and Buddhist monks from entering areas of the region struck by deadly earthquakes last week, three residents of the region and a Tibetan in exile told Radio Free Asia.
On Jan. 7, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Dingri county, near the border of Nepal. Chinese state media says it killed 126 people, but Tibetan sources said the toll was likely higher given that at least 100 people were killed in the town of Dramtso alone.
State media also said the disaster injured 337 people and displaced more than 60,000 people.
Starting Monday, authorities blocked off access, preventing monks, relief volunteers and aid providers from entering the affected area under the pretext of “cleanup,” and “security work,” the residents said under condition of anonymity for safety reasons.
The blocking of monks was painful for survivors because in Buddhist tradition, prayers and rituals are conducted at the end of each week for the first seven weeks after a person’s death.
Tibetans in other areas of Tibet, as well as those abroad or in exile in India, Nepal, Bhutan and elsewhere, gathered Monday to offer prayers.
Since last week’s quake, more than 1,200 aftershocks have been reported by Chinese authorities.
On Monday evening, two strong aftershocks — with magnitudes of 5.1 and 4.6 — struck Dingri County’s Tsogo township (Cuoguoxiang in Chinese) and Tashizong township (Zhaxizongxiang), respectively, according to the United States Geological Survey.
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According to a Dingri county official quoted by Chinese state media on Monday, “no casualties have been reported so far” in the latest aftershocks. The official added that “further investigation is underway.”
The Chinese government has also been deleting photos and videos about the impact of the earthquake from social media, residents said.
“Chinese state media has been focusing on propaganda activities such as having Tibetan children wave Chinese flags. They are forcing affected residents to express their gratitude to the Chinese government, and they display (Chinese President) Xi Jinping’s photos in the temporary shelters provided,” another resident said.
On Sunday, Sikyong Penpa Tsering, the democratically elected leader of the Central Tibetan Administration, the government-in-exile based in Dharamshala, India, issued a statement in which he called on Beijing to “…ensure transparency and accountability in relief efforts by granting unrestricted and immediate access to international aid organizations and media delegations.”
“Strict information censorship by the PRC government continues to pose significant challenges in verifying the accuracy of casualty reports and assessing the adequacy of relief operations,” Tsering said.
He also called on the Chinese government to “provide adequate assistance in rebuilding efforts that takes into account the traditional Tibetan needs and fundamental rights of the Tibetan people.”
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, in a press briefing on Monday, responded to a query raised on Tsering’s statement, saying, “The disaster response and relief work is generally proceeding smoothly. We are confident in winning this tough battle of quake response and returning work and life to normal in the affected areas as soon as possible.”
Translated by Tenzin Pema. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
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Russian missile and drone attacks are continuing across Ukraine as the country already faces a cold, dark winter after Russia’s strikes destroyed about half of the country’s energy infrastructure. This comes as Russia and Ukraine completed a prisoner swap, repatriating more than 300 prisoners of war in a deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates ahead of the new year. The Biden administration, meanwhile, has approved billions more in military and economic assistance to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump returns to office with a pledge to curtail aid and end the war. Since Russia’s invasion nearly three years ago, Congress has approved $175 billion in total assistance to Ukraine. “Putin doesn’t want peace,” says Oleksandra Matviichuk, a leading Ukrainian human rights lawyer, who says Russia’s goal is to restore its empire by force. “Russian occupation means torture, rapes, enforced disappearances, denial of your own identity, forcible adoption of your children, filtration camps and mass graves,” she says.
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Despite being bolstered by an unprecedented degree of Chinese diplomatic and material support, Myanmar’s military has had mixed results in the past few weeks, in the face of mounting economic and fiscal challenges.
The State Administrative Council (SAC) – as the junta is officially called – has continued to suffer military setbacks that have economic implications of their own.
With the capture of Kan Paik Ti, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has consolidated control of the entire border with China and stepped up their offensive in the mineral rich regions.
The KIA announced that it would allow the resumption of rare-earth mining in the Pangwa-Chipwi region, now under its control.
In Rakhine, the Arakan Army captured Toungup, which prevents overland supply to Kyaukphyu from the south.
The Arakan Army have captured the military’s last posts in Ann town, home of the headquarters of the Western Military Command and a major pumping station for the oil and gas pipelines to China.
Over 800 soldiers – mainly hastily trained conscripts – have surrendered in the recent campaign. The Arakan Army now controls 11 of 17 towns in Rakhine.
While there has been considerable tension between the Arakan Army and the fractious Chin opposition forces in the past, there’s been an unprecedented degree of cooperation now.
Local Chin Defense Forces and the Arakan Army have interrupted resupply convoys from Magwe into Ann, capturing at least 14 soldiers.
Ceasefires in Shan state
In northeastern Myanmar near the border with China, the Chinese stepped up their pressure on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA.
On Dec. 4, the MNDAA, which has been fighting for years for autonomy for the Kokang region, declared a ceasefire in its war against the military, the second insurgent force in days to cite pressure from China for its willingness to talk peace.
The move followed the TNLA’s announcement that they would agree to talks with the junta.
The regime’s counter offensive in northern Shan state continues to make little headway, and the battles have been pitched and casualties high. The regime continues to intentionally target civilians with air power.
The opposition has suffered some setbacks in Karenni and in Magwe and Sagaing, where logistics troubles continue to impede their gains. Karen forces continue to opportunistically ambush junta forces.
But the junta is facing its own resource challenges, and is desperate to reverse its losses ahead of Chinese-supported elections that are scheduled for 2025.
But with only 40% of Myanmar’s territory under its full control, it’s hard to see how elections could serve as anything but a shambolic off-ramp for the generals.
Despite the overall 12% contraction of the economy since the February 2021 coup d’etat, the junta’s defense expenditure has surged by 222%, from 1.746 trillion kyats in 2021 to 3.703 trillion kyats in 2022 to 5.635 trillion kyats (over US$2.7 billion) in 2023.
The regime has not disclosed its defense budget for 2024 or 2025.
Tight finances ahead
At a recent meeting of the SAC’s Financial Commission, Gen. Soe Win acknowledged that Min Aung Hlaing had directed spending on security to take precedence over all other public spending, despite the fact that the military’s provision of these public goods and social services has withered in the past three years.
A recent Radio Free Asia report found that the country is producing only 300MWs of electricity, a 25% decline since the coup, with many power generating facilities inoperable, or beyond the junta’s control. The country requires 540MW.
Where the money for increased defense spending will come from, is anyone’s guess. Finances are tight for the junta, with foreign exchange in perpetually short supply.
The regime’s currency controls remain in place, which has devastated the business community, forcing them to sell their foreign exchange at artificially low rates, prompting more companies to try to hide their assets abroad.
The opposition’s control of four of the five official crossings with China has added to the financial pain, as border trade can be conducted in yuan and kyats, not dollars.
That is the crux of the regime’s lobbying of China to pressure the TNLA and MNDAA, two members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that had led offensives against the junta since October 2023, to stop their offensives.
Foreign investment has fallen each year since the coup, from $1.64 billion in FY2022-23 to $661 million in FY2023-24. Now, more than three years in, investors have lost all confidence.
The military government’s Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), revealed that foreign investment in the first seven months of FY 2024-25 totaled only $226 million.
DICA’s data, as reported in Myanmar-Now, shows that most of that investment went to existing projects and operations; only four of 33 this year are greenfield investors.
Scaring up revenue
The junta has been searching for new sources of revenue.
The regime’s Minister of Energy, Ko Ko Lwin, held talks with the chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation in Beijing, where they discussed additional sales of oil and gas, and improbably increasing the capacity of Myanmar-China oil and gas pipelines.
Min Aug Hlaing made a show of attending the Myanmar Gems Emporium in Naypyidaw on Nov. 18, 2024, which remains one of the few reliable income streams for the junta.
The Irrawaddy noted that each year since the coup, the offered lots of jade have increased – from 1,955 in 2021, to 2,150 in 2022 and 4,025 in 2023.
The TNLA has worked to deprive the junta of proceeds from the ruby trade in Mogoke.
While it has allowed individual miners to continue, the TNLA has blocked all large-scale mechanized mining, which has been dominated by the military-owned Myanma Economic Holdings Limited.
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Short on manpower, the junta is doing everything it can to force overseas workers home to be conscripted.
A new regulation puts the onus on manpower agencies to recall workers who have been conscripted. They have lobbied the Thai government to send the 2 million legal residents and upwards of 3 million undocumented Myanmar nationals home.
Those that continue to work abroad are a cash cow for the junta.
In September the SAC enacted a rule to force the expatriate workers to transfer 25% of their remittances through formal bank channels, where they must use the official exchange rate of 2,100 kyats to the dollar and 56 kyats to the baht. The black market rate is 3,400 kyats to the dollar and around 100 kyats per baht.
Economic warfare
The junta, however, is also waging its own economic warfare on the opposition.
While the junta has not been able to retake Mogoke or Lashio, it is actively bombing the towns to disrupt economic activity.
China’s border closures and internet and electricity outages of opposition-controlled crossings have put considerable financial pressure on the citizens in territories near the frontier controlled by ethnic armies.
Now the junta has blocked the sale of petroleum to opposition-controlled regions.
Fuel distribution is now legally banned to the entire Rakhine state, northern Shan State, Kachin with the exception of the state capital Myitkyina. Some 26 townships in Sagaing region, a township in Magwe, and two in Mandalay have suffered the same bans.
As short on resources as the junta is, they still have advantages over the opposition.
But saddled with corruption and plummeting morale, will it be enough?
Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or Radio Free Asia.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by Zachary Abuza.
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The post UN relief chief urged global support this week as Israeli legislation threatens aid to Palestinian refugees – November 8, 2024 appeared first on KPFA.
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The post UN rapporteur recommends suspending Israel from General Assembly amid outrage over Knesset’s ban on UN aid agency for Palestinians – October 30, 2024 appeared first on KPFA.
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Israel’s three-week siege of northern Gaza has killed at least 1,000 Palestinians. Most of the dead are women and children. On Saturday, Israeli forces withdrew from Kamal Adwan Hospital just one day after storming it, with health officials saying that soldiers detained dozens of male medical staffers and some of the patients. This comes as the Israeli government has banned six medical NGOs from entering Gaza despite the dire humanitarian crisis stemming from repeated displacements of the population, widespread disease, injuries from Israeli attacks, hunger and more. Some 43,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its war on Gaza last October, according to local officials, although the true toll is likely far higher. “The healthcare infrastructure is destroyed. Many of the local doctors have been either killed or kidnapped. The patients are left stranded; no one is providing any help to them,” says Mosab Nasser, CEO of FAJR Scientific, one of the six medical aid groups banned by Israel.
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Read RFA coverage of this story in Burmese
Myanmar’s junta is increasingly targeting aid workers under the pretext that they are supporting the country’s armed opposition, arresting more than 20 in Mon state since June, according to members of civil society groups.
Since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup d’etat, aid groups have filled significant gaps in social services under junta rule – stepping in to deliver much needed food and supplies to the displaced, assist with recovery efforts following natural disasters, and provide critical medical care and burial services for civilians caught in the crossfire of Myanmar’s years-long civil war.
But volunteers told RFA Burmese that as rebel groups have enjoyed more success on the battlefield in recent months, the junta has increasingly accused their organizations of “aiding terrorists,” putting them at risk and creating a chilling effect on the crucial work they do.
Sources with ties to volunteer organizations said that since June the military has arrested more than 20 aid workers in Mon state alone, eight of whom have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms under Myanmar’s Counter-Terrorism Law.
At least four aid workers were murdered over the same period of time in the Mandalay region, and none of the cases have been solved by authorities, said the sources, who spoke to RFA on condition of anonymity due to security concerns.
Arrests in Mon state
On Oct. 9, three members of the Ownerless Social Aid Association in Mon state’s Thanbyuzayat township, including the group’s chairman, were arrested and charged with anti-terrorism laws for allegedly supporting the anti-junta People’s Defense Force, or PDF, said a source close to the organization.
“The chairman, the driver, and the chief financial officer were prosecuted for supplying the PDFs with one sack of rice and 50,000 kyats (US$25), three viss (1 viss = 3.6 pounds) of dried fish and rice, and 200,000 kyat (US$95), respectively,” the source said.
Local PDF units were formed by civilians to protect their communities from the military and many have pledged allegiance to the country’s shadow National Unity Government, or NUG, made up of officials deposed in the coup.
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In June, the military arrested four volunteers with the Kawt San Nai Social Aid Organization Association in Mon’s Kyaikhto township and five from the Lamaing Youth’s Social Aid and Rescue Organization, including the group’s chairman, and charged them under the Counter-Terrorism Law, sources said.
The military also arrested aid workers in Mon’s Mawlamyine, Ramanya, Bilin, Thahton and Mudon townships and sentenced them to long prison terms, they said, adding that civilians in need of medical care died because of the resulting suspension of humanitarian aid.
Beyond Mon state, junta authorities arrested six members of the Thukha Kari Social Aid Association in Sagaing region’s Sagaing township during the first week of May for allegedly supporting the PDF.
Four killed in Mandalay
The crackdown on aid workers may have contributed to a sense of impunity for the unidentified gunmen who on Sept. 25 arrested and killed Soe Win, the chairman of the Moe Metta Social Volunteers Organization, in Mandalay region’s Ngazun township and three other volunteers from the same group the following day, a resident told RFA.
“The chairman was arrested first and then killed,” said the resident. “The next day, a senior member [of the group] and his nephew were also arrested at the same time [as well as a third aid worker]. Later, they were killed and their bodies were thrown into a garbage dump. We still don’t know which group killed them.”
The killings took place in Ngazun’s Moe Taung village, where the military and pro-junta militias are known to operate, as well as the PDF, the resident said.
RFA has been unable to independently confirm who was responsible for the killings.
Chilling effect on aid groups
An aid worker, who also declined to be named, said that volunteer groups now feel under threat and unable to operate because of the crackdown.
“At present, most of the relief groups in Mon state have suspended their ambulance services [because of the risk],” said the aid worker. “Earlier, we were able to take rural patients who needed intensive treatment to major hospitals in Yangon and Mawlamyine cities. But these days, the junta won’t even allow us to transport patients in critical condition.”
When asked about the crackdown, Saw Kyi Naing, the junta’s spokesperson and social affairs minister for Mon state, said that he hadn’t heard of the arrests.
“People who abide by the rules and directives can travel freely because all of the groups have been registered,” he added.
Attempts by RFA to contact junta spokesperson Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun about the arrest and jailing of aid workers went unanswered Tuesday.
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By RFA Burmese.
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South Korea’s spy agency said Friday that North Korea had decided to send “large-scale” troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, with 1,500 special forces already in Russia’s Far East undergoing training.
The National Intelligence Service, or NIS, released detailed satellite images it said showed a first deployment, saying it estimated the North could send around 12,000 soldiers in total.
The North was spotted transporting its special forces troops to Russian territory on a Russian naval transport ship between Oct. 8 and 13, according to the NIS.
North Korea and Russia have moved noticeably closer over the past year or more amid widespread suspicion that North Korea has supplied conventional weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine in return for military and economic assistance. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
If confirmed, the move would be a rare foray by the long-isolated and nuclear-armed North into a foreign conflict.
About 1,500 North Korean soldiers were transported during the first phase, using four amphibious landing ships and three escort vessels owned by Russia, the NIS said.
These troops were moved from areas near the North Korean cities of Chongjin, Hamhung and Musudan to Russia’s Vladivostok, said the NIS, adding that a second phase of transport is expected to occur soon.
They have been stationed across various locations in the Far East, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk and have been issued Russian military uniforms and weapons, according to the agency.
12,000 troops expected
The NIS said that they are expected to be sent to the front lines once they complete their “adaptation training,” adding that it expects a total of 12,000 troops, including those from the country’s most elite military units, could be deployed.
South Korea’s presidential office said Seoul has been closely tracking North Korea’s troop movement to Russia from the beginning in coordination with its allies, and will continue to monitor the situation and take all necessary measures proactively.
NATO chief Mark Rutte said Friday the alliance could not yet confirm South Korean intelligence’s report, but it is in “close contact” with its partners.
“At this moment, our official position is that we cannot confirm reports that North Koreans are actively now as soldiers engaged in the war effort,” Rutte told reporters following a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
“But this, of course, might change,” he said.
Rutte added NATO was “in close contact” with its partners, particularly South Korea, which was taking part in this week’s talks as part of the so-called Indo-Pacific Four, along with Australia, Japan and New Zealand.
“We will certainly have that conversation with them to get all the evidence on the table,” said Rutte.
Separately, EU spokesperson Peter Stano said in a statement: “Continued military support from the DPRK to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine will be met with an appropriate response.” The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK, is North Korea’s official name.
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On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited Ukrainian intelligence reports saying that North Korean personnel had already been deployed in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, with an additional 10,000 troops being prepared to join the fight.
Zelenskyy suggested that Russia is relying on North Korean forces to compensate for its substantial troop losses, as many young Russians seek to avoid conscription.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun told lawmakers in early October that North Korea was likely planning to send troops to Ukraine to fight alongside Russia.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Oct. 10, however, dismissed the claim as “fake news.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly submitted the bill to the lower house of parliament on Monday to ratify the treaty with North Korea on a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which was sealed in June.
The treaty was signed by Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 19 in Pyongyang after their summit talks during the Russian President’s state visit.
The new partnership includes a mutual defense assistance clause that would apply in the case of “aggression” against one of the signatories.
Edited by Malcolm Foster.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Taejun Kang for RFA.
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The International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank are poring over a highly-critical audit of a multimillion dollar COVID-19 aid package in Solomon Islands, partly supported by the two institutions, that found widespread mismanagement and potential corruption.
The report from the Solomon Islands Auditor General Office highlighted a litany of problems surrounding delivery of the SBD$309 million (US$37 million) emergency funding for businesses and households between 2020-21.
Though the audit notes the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic and the “heightened the inherent risk for expediting procurements,” it paints a damning picture of missing documentation, conflicts of interest, procedural breaches and possible fraud.
“We are currently going over the report and will be discussing it with the authorities,” an International Monetary Fund, or IMF, spokesperson told RFA affiliate BenarNews.
“The need for reforms to improve fiscal governance and public financial management in Solomon Islands has been underscored by the IMF, and we will continue to encourage and support the country in advancing these reforms.”
The audit’s findings are likely to reinforce public concern about thriving corruption in Solomon Islands. The country scored 43 out of 100 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index last year, with 0 indicating “highly corrupt” and 100 “very clean.”
The economic stimulus package, endorsed in May 2020 by the cabinet of former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, was funded by the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, the government and other development partners.
At the same time, the IMF approved US$28.5 million in emergency financing to help the country address urgent balance of payments needs. Honiara agreed to publish an audit of all COVID-19 related spending as part of the deal.
The ADB, which handed out US$20 million to the government’s COVID-19 response plan and the stimulus package, said it was aware of the audit and ready to investigate any alleged complaints of wrongdoing it received.
“The ADB’s Office of Anticorruption and Integrity takes all complaints of alleged integrity violations in ADB supported projects seriously,” it said in a statement.
Since its release earlier this month, the auditor’s report has made waves in Solomon Islands, a Pacific nation of about 700,000 people that lies some 1,750 kilometers (1,087 miles) off Australia’s east coast, between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
Political pressure is growing on police to open an investigation into the findings, but Commissioner Mostyn Mangau has said he was waiting for a referral from the auditor general.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele said the report would be tabled in parliament and debated, but it had not yet been discussed in cabinet.
“There are processes there to be followed,” he told reporters in Honiara.
He added the audit “comes under the prerogative of the Minister of Finance,” who was out of the country.
Sogavare took up the post of finance minister after serving as prime minister between 2019 and 2024.
The economic stimulus package was managed by a small, overstretched team in the Office of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
The arrangement resulted in “many control weaknesses and control breakdowns,” Auditor General David Teika Dennis said in his report.
The audit report found, for example, that senior officials personally signed for many payments for beneficiaries but provided no evidence they had handed the payment on to the designated person.
“This was a significant breakdown of internal control – allowing government officers to sign for payments for beneficiaries who may not even be aware they are due to receive payment or how much they are to receive was a major fraud risk,” the audit report said.
“We identified one government officer who had personally signed for 251 Imprest Account cheques worth approximately SBD$6.8 million. The officer was also involved in encouraging and preparing applications for individuals.”
Funds were also paid to members of parliament to spend in their constituencies, but there was very little documentation to show how the money was used, the report said.
Overall, less than 10% of successful grant applications for aid could be provided to auditors, who also faced obstruction and delays while trying to do their work.
Charley Piringi contributed to this report from Honiara.
BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Harry Pearl for BenarNews.
This post was originally published on Radio Free.
The International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank are poring over a highly-critical audit of a multimillion dollar COVID-19 aid package in Solomon Islands, partly supported by the two institutions, that found widespread mismanagement and potential corruption.
The report from the Solomon Islands Auditor General Office highlighted a litany of problems surrounding delivery of the SBD$309 million (US$37 million) emergency funding for businesses and households between 2020-21.
Though the audit notes the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic and the “heightened the inherent risk for expediting procurements,” it paints a damning picture of missing documentation, conflicts of interest, procedural breaches and possible fraud.
“We are currently going over the report and will be discussing it with the authorities,” an International Monetary Fund, or IMF, spokesperson told RFA affiliate BenarNews.
“The need for reforms to improve fiscal governance and public financial management in Solomon Islands has been underscored by the IMF, and we will continue to encourage and support the country in advancing these reforms.”
The audit’s findings are likely to reinforce public concern about thriving corruption in Solomon Islands. The country scored 43 out of 100 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index last year, with 0 indicating “highly corrupt” and 100 “very clean.”
The economic stimulus package, endorsed in May 2020 by the cabinet of former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, was funded by the Asian Development Bank, or ADB, the government and other development partners.
At the same time, the IMF approved US$28.5 million in emergency financing to help the country address urgent balance of payments needs. Honiara agreed to publish an audit of all COVID-19 related spending as part of the deal.
The ADB, which handed out US$20 million to the government’s COVID-19 response plan and the stimulus package, said it was aware of the audit and ready to investigate any alleged complaints of wrongdoing it received.
“The ADB’s Office of Anticorruption and Integrity takes all complaints of alleged integrity violations in ADB supported projects seriously,” it said in a statement.
Since its release earlier this month, the auditor’s report has made waves in Solomon Islands, a Pacific nation of about 700,000 people that lies some 1,750 kilometers (1,087 miles) off Australia’s east coast, between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
Political pressure is growing on police to open an investigation into the findings, but Commissioner Mostyn Mangau has said he was waiting for a referral from the auditor general.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele said the report would be tabled in parliament and debated, but it had not yet been discussed in cabinet.
“There are processes there to be followed,” he told reporters in Honiara.
He added the audit “comes under the prerogative of the Minister of Finance,” who was out of the country.
Sogavare took up the post of finance minister after serving as prime minister between 2019 and 2024.
The economic stimulus package was managed by a small, overstretched team in the Office of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
The arrangement resulted in “many control weaknesses and control breakdowns,” Auditor General David Teika Dennis said in his report.
The audit report found, for example, that senior officials personally signed for many payments for beneficiaries but provided no evidence they had handed the payment on to the designated person.
“This was a significant breakdown of internal control – allowing government officers to sign for payments for beneficiaries who may not even be aware they are due to receive payment or how much they are to receive was a major fraud risk,” the audit report said.
“We identified one government officer who had personally signed for 251 Imprest Account cheques worth approximately SBD$6.8 million. The officer was also involved in encouraging and preparing applications for individuals.”
Funds were also paid to members of parliament to spend in their constituencies, but there was very little documentation to show how the money was used, the report said.
Overall, less than 10% of successful grant applications for aid could be provided to auditors, who also faced obstruction and delays while trying to do their work.
Charley Piringi contributed to this report from Honiara.
BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Harry Pearl for BenarNews.
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The post Biden Administration promises $2.7 billion more in aid to Ukraine – September 26, 2024 appeared first on KPFA.
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We speak with Brett Murphy, the ProPublica reporter behind a blockbuster exposé that revealed the Biden administration ignored warnings from its own experts about Israel blocking humanitarian aid into Gaza in order to keep supplying the country with weapons. USAID, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the State Department’s refugees bureau both concluded earlier this year that Israeli authorities routinely impeded delivery of food and medicine into the devastated Palestinian territory, where hunger, disease and displacement have wreaked havoc on the civilian population. Although U.S. law requires the government to stop arms shipments to countries that prevent the delivery of U.S.-backed aid, Secretary of State Antony Blinken ignored the findings and told Congress Israel was not restricting humanitarian assistance — helping to keep weapons flowing to the Israeli military to continue its assault on Gaza.
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