New analysis lays out the widespread benefits of cultivated meat to the EU and the environment, but not without significant support from parliamentarians.
In late July, French startup Gourmey announced it had officially filed an application to sell cultivated meat in the EU.
It was a seminal moment – not merely because a company made a regulatory filing, but because it was the first to do so under the EU’s novel food regulations.
Among the strictest in the world, the complexity of a 27-member block combined with a long-drawn process drove companies away from the region – instead, they focused their efforts on countries where such frameworks have progressed, like Singapore, the US, Israel and the UK, a former EU member.
But there have been movements. The EU recently updated its novel food framework to account for the advancements in the food tech sector, providing more detailed guidance to companies hoping to file applications, especially on scientific requirements.
Now, a new report shows why it is wise for the EU to do so. By helping develop a robust ecosystem, cultivated meat could deliver €20-85B in annual economic contributions, making up around 0.4% of its GDP. Nearly a third of this would come directly from the cultivated meat sector, while the rest would be sourced from suppliers and induced spending and economy.
By 2050, the cultivated meat market could be worth a combined €15-80B in new domestic and export markets across the value chain by 2050, while generating up to €40B in trade opportunities, largely driven by the EU’s leadership in specialised cell culture inputs.
Moreover, the sector would lead to 25,000 to 90,000 new highly skilled jobs directly from production, with estimates suggesting that for every job created in cultivated meat, another job would be created elsewhere.
The analysis, carried out by systems change advisory Systemiq in partnership with cultivated meat think tank the Good Food Institute Europe, also revealed the outsized climate benefits cultivated meat would bring to the planet. But public support – in the form of money and policy – is critical.
Price parity crucial to the future of cultivated meat
Europeans currently consume up to eight times more meat than is recommended in the Eat-Lancet Planetary Health Diet, and this appetite for meat is set to grow by 10% by 2050. That is unsustainable because our food system is virtually already running at full capacity.
Livestock production takes up 71% of the EU’s agricultural land and contributes to 84% of its food system emissions, but food products derived from animals provide only 35% of calories and 65% of proteins in the region.
Alternative proteins are a “critical lever” to stay within the safe operating limits of our planetary boundaries, offering us a chance to use less land, water and energy to make more food, while generating far fewer greenhouse gas emissions.
Business as usual won’t cut it. The Systemiq report looks at three ways things could pan out for cultivated meat, and the future of the EU’s food supply. The first is a scenario of low-ambition scenario, where cultivated meat would become a niche ingredient with products mostly comprised of plant-based ingredients and a small percentage of cultivated animal cells.
Here, wider regulatory approvals still remain five years away, which further slow down R&D and scale-up efforts, as well as cost reductions, meaning price parity will likely not be a reality until 2045. The high markup of cultivated meat would mean it would only make up 0.5% of the meat market by mid-century.
In the medium-ambition scenario, these products gain momentum alongside the broader bioeconomy, with price parity met in 2040 through the commodification of key input supply chains. Regulatory approvals on a wide scale could occur by the end of this decade, and cultivated meat could capture 3% of the meat market.
Finally, the high-ambition scenario would see cultivated meat become a part of mass-market diets across the world, with regulatory approvals taking place efficiently across regions. It could compete with meat on costs by 2035, allowing producers to include it in higher proportions in products. These advancements would see cultivated meat take up nearly a tenth of the meat industry’s share.
The projections mirror another report that looks at alternative protein’s potential in the EU based on different levels of intervention. Systemiq suggests that the global cultivated meat market could reach €500B by 2050, with Asia dominating consumption (65%). The EU would likely account for 6% of this share.
But to get there, cultivated meat producers need to build on the work they have done in the last decade and drastically reduce prices, by over €10 per kg to reach parity with meat. There are multiple developments that can facilitate this, including increased media use efficiency, new plant-based and fermentation-derived cell culture sources, reduced labour intensity (but with improved pay and quality), meeting energy requirements with renewables, and advancements in scaffold materials.
EU urged to spend €500M every year on cultivated meat
The opportunities for the EU, as outlined above, are multifaceted and widespread. The region could meet 70% of its own demand for cultivated meat, with the domestic market potentially reaching €38B by 2050.
Then there are the planetary advantages. By unlocking wider adoption of cultivated meat – and thus plant-based products too – the EU could avoid 3.5 gigatonnes of emissions by 2050, equivalent to a sixth of its agricultural footprint by that time. It would also reduce land use by up to a third, and water consumption by as much as 7%.
Additionally, there’s potential for valorising waste products as bioeconomy inputs – for example, poly-lactic acid from culture media can be used to produce bioplastics. There are advantages for the pharma and life sciences sectors too, in that cheaper culture media would reduce overall production costs and growth factors could be utilised in therapeutic applications.
The EU’s farmers won’t be left behind – cultivated meat relies on key farmed crops for growth media, but farmers can also supply animal cells and byproducts to companies, and may be able to produce cultivated meat on-site on a small scale.
Speaking of farmers, more than 80% of the EU’s public subsidies under its Common Agriculture Policy have gone to livestock producers, with 44% directly contributing to animal feed, according to one study. Separate research suggests that the EU has spent 1,200 times more money on supporting animal agriculture than alternative proteins like cultivated meat and plant-based foods.
That needs to change. The cultivated meat sector needs €5B in annual spending in the EU, and €500M of this should come from public sources, aimed at R&D and derisking large-scale infrastructure builds. Globally, the industry needs up to €55B from both the private and public sectors.
There are multiple models governments to pitch in: research grants, tax credits, R&D subsidies, offtake agreements, blended finance, and public-private partnerships.
The EU, meanwhile, needs to make the regulatory process more collaborative and transparent, with significantly more policy support needed for cultivated meat. Finally, there’s a need for commonly accepted product names and greater awareness of cultivated meat’s benefits, alongside better-tasting and more inexpensive products, to breed consumer acceptance of these foods.
The post Cultivated Meat Could Bring 90,000 Jobs and €85B to the EU Economy – But Only If Lawmakers Bite appeared first on Green Queen.
This post was originally published on Green Queen.
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