As President Biden meets with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and survivors of Hurricane Ian, the deadliest storm to hit the state in decades, we get an update from Florida state Representative Michele Rayner on relief efforts underway and the housing crisis exacerbated by the storm. Republicans like Governor DeSantis are “more concerned about sticking it to Joe Biden than actually making sure that they can take care of their people,” says Rayner. She also discusses the treatment of asylum seekers in Florida and the anti-LGBT“Don’t Say Gay” bill.
TRANSCRIPT
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AMYGOODMAN:President Biden is visiting survivors of Hurricane Ian in Florida today, surveying damage from the Category 4 storm that devastated part of Florida’s Gulf Coast. The hurricane’s death toll has topped 109, with 105 of those deaths in Florida, making it the state’s deadliest hurricane in decades. Search and rescue crews are warning they’re likely to uncover more bodies in the coming days. At least 55 of the deaths were in Florida’s Lee County. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis dismissed questions during a news conference Monday about why officials there didn’t mandate evacuations until the day before the storm hit.
GOV.RONDESANTIS:Go ahead, ma’am. Go ahead, ma’am. OK, OK, OK. Stop. Stop. Stop. OK? It’s been — this has been dealt with. The Lee County has explained what they did. They went through that. … Well, of course you’re going to review everything we do in these storms. I mean, that’s the way it works.
AMYGOODMAN:DeSantis meets with President Biden today as many residents face a long recovery amidst a housing crisis that could leave many unhoused, especially those on low or fixed incomes.
For more, we go to St. Petersburg, Florida, to speak with Democratic state Representative Michele Rayner. She’s been on the ground helping with relief efforts in the hardest-hit neighborhoods in Fort Myers, which is in Lee County, including Harlem Heights and Dunbar.
Welcome toDemocracy Now!It’s great to have you with us, Representative Michele Rayner. If you can talk about this whole story, you know, the attack on the officials for not calling for evacuation earlier, but the whole issue of who gets hit hardest? Who is it hardest — who is it hardest to evacuate? For example, the poor, people who don’t have access to vehicles, etc. And then, what happens after the storm? Who is affected most? Give us a lay of the land.
REP.MICHELERAYNER:Well, Amy and Juan, it’s so good to be with you. This is, low key, a dream come true. So, I loveDemocracy Now!and the work that you do.
But to the question at hand, so I have been Black in America, Black in Florida for 41 years — a young 41, but for 41 years. So, I have family in Fort Myers in the Dunbar area and in Harlem Heights. So, one, when we’re thinking about evacuating, there is a privilege in being able to evacuate. Not everyone has the means or the ability to be able to evacuate. And so, that’s number one, so we’re putting that there. Also, you know, as we are kind of gauging and looking at the response of Lee County, we knew that there was a hurricane coming, but initially they thought it was going to hit my home, my district, and it turned. So, once again, telling folks to evacuate, especially in Harlem Heights and in Dunbar, there is a privilege that’s there.
But secondly, after we are in this post-hurricane response, the concerning matter is: Who is getting what type of relief? And I think that, you know, as I’ve been making calls about this, there has to be an intentional focus on our working families, on our farmworkers. There’s a large population of farmworkers down in Southwest Florida. Also, parts of these communities, you know, quarter of Dunbar lives under the federal poverty line, and so — but we knew that there was going to be a disparity or an inequitable response because of what’s been going on pre-Hurricane Ian.
JUANGONZÁLEZ:And, Representative, could you talk about the housing crunch that exists in Florida already, before the hurricane, in terms of affordable housing, reports of huge skyrocketing of rent in many parts of Florida? How do you see the numbers of people that are now homeless, how the state is going to be able to marshal — and the federal government — resources to be able to assist those who have no homes?
REP.MICHELERAYNER:I mean, Juan, you know, quite frankly, Floridians can’t afford Florida. And so, we have a housing crisis, as you stated. There are ways to fix this housing crisis, but a Republican-led leadership in the Governor’s Mansion and in the Legislature have chosen not to. We attempted to address a property insurance crisis that we have. That was not addressed. It was actually — you know, helped and aided the insurance companies.
So, when you’re thinking about folks who are working families and folks who are trying to make sure they can rebuild their lives, number one, is their housing going to be the same or better as what they lost? Number two, are they going to be able to afford said housing? Number three, are the insurance companies — are they actually going to be ethical in their dealings with the people on the ground?
So, we already see that we have a crisis in our housing market, we have a crisis in our rental market, we have a crisis in our property insurance market, and this storm has now exacerbated the crisis that we’re at. And we’re at catastrophic levels. My hope is, is thatFEMAwill come in, it will immediately start working with the most marginalized communities and have an intentional focus on making sure that they can recover.
JUANGONZÁLEZ:And I wanted to ask you about your governor and his stance on issues such as climate change. If I’m not mistaken, back during — in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, he opposed federal aid to New Jersey and New York by the federal government after that catastrophe. Now he’s being forced to basically ask Washington for assistance, isn’t he?
REP.MICHELERAYNER:Yeah. And so, you know, the governor, he and other members of his party speak out of both sides of their mouth. You know, we saw members of the Republican delegation of congressional delegation of Florida vote against their own interests and their own constituents just this week about supplying aid to Florida. So, you know, they’re more concerned about sticking it to Joe Biden than actually making sure that they can take care of their people. And right now, you know, DeSantis finds himself in that position. You know, he’s trying to figure out a way to keep sticking it to Joe Biden by simultaneously having his hand out. And both can’t be true; you can’t do both of them. And once again, this is why I’ve been saying, you know, we are public servants. When we are elected, we are public servants. But there are some folks who are more concerned about being public than they are concerned about being a servant.
AMYGOODMAN:Let me ask you, still on Governor DeSantis but another issue, and that’s the issue of migrants. We all know about what he did, spending government money to fly Venezuelan asylum seekers from Texas to Florida, up to Martha’s Vineyard. Now there are number of immigrants in — migrants, asylum seekers in New York who have been shown flyers that there’s paid work in Florida. They’re headed back down. TheNew York Postis reporting this. What do you say to them, Representative Michele Rayner? They’re being told they’ll get money if they go to Florida.
REP.MICHELERAYNER:I don’t know what to say, Amy. One, it’s heartbreaking that, basically, our governor kidnapped them — I mean, like, let’s just level set and call this thing what it is — and under false pretenses. You know, I’m a criminal defense attorney. And by any other standard, you know, he would be facing prosecution for what he did. So that’s number one.
Number two, you know, while I understand that folks need to work — they are trying to make sure they can stay here in the United States because the conditions from where they are from are so dangerous. I don’t — I guess we’re here now. I don’t know if Florida is the best place for them, because we have a governor that has proven to be dangerous to people who do not look like him, to people who do not love like him, to people who are not of the same party and to people who don’t have the same wealth income that he has. And so, you know, while I, as anyone, would welcome folks and say, “Please come. Please work. Please help us and also be able to have money to send back to your families,” Florida is — tends to be a little bit dangerous for folks who don’t align with Ron DeSantis.
AMYGOODMAN:Let me ask you quickly, Representative Michele Rayner. You’re the first Black openlyLGBTQwoman in the Florida Legislature. Next — October 11th, next week, is National Coming Out Day. You’re planning to lead a town hall meeting in the aftermath of the passage H.B. 1557, “Don’t Say Gay” bill. Can you talk about the impact it’s had? And are people continuing their activism around this in the midst of this storm?
REP.MICHELERAYNER:You know, Amy, it has had significant impact. It has had significant impact on teachers. There have been teachers who have quit the education profession. We have had folks who are nervous of what they can say to parents. One school district right above my county, they had teachers take off the “safe space” stickers. You have parents who are concerned about their children’s safety. You have students who are reporting an uptick in bullying due to them being a member of theLGBTQcommunity.
And people are most certainly continuing their advocacy around this work, because here’s what we know to be true. If this Legislature stays the same makeup, if Ron DeSantis wins a second term in the Governor’s Mansion, that these type of bills aren’t going to just stop at “Don’t Say Gay.” We’re going to see bills that we have seen in Texas, you know, criminalizing parents for trying to allow their children to have gender-affirming care, and pushing the limit of what can be done. So, we know that right now with “Don’t Say Gay,” we have to continue sounding the alarm, knowing that this is a slippery slope as to what can happen, not only towardLGBTQyouth but also Black and Brown folks, working people and working families.
AMYGOODMAN:Well, Representative Michele Rayner, thank you so much for being with us, Democratic Florida state representative. After Hurricane Ian, Representative Rayner has been on the ground in the hardest-hit neighborhoods in Fort Myers, including Harlem Heights, Dunbar, helping with relief efforts. And a shoutout to the community radio stationWMNF, who we turned to as the storm was hitting, serving the community in Tampa and St. Petersburg.
When Hurricane Ian pummeled Florida last week, it left a stunning trail of physical devastation in its wake. Entire neighborhoods vanished beneath water, cities were shredded by 150-mile-per-hour winds, and thousands of people lost their homes overnight.
Though the storm has since dissipated, it will bring even more turmoil to the Sunshine State in the coming months — but this damage will be financial rather than physical. Ratings agencies and real estate companies have estimated the storm’s damages at anywhere between $30 and $60 billion, which would make it one of the largest insured loss events in U.S. history.
Wind damage is covered by standard homeowner’s insurance, and the payouts necessitated by Hurricane Ian’s extensive wreckage are likely to accelerate the collapse of the state’s homeowner’s insurance industry, driving private companies into bankruptcy and forcing thousands more Floridians into a state-run program with questionable long-term prospects. The process offers an early view of the way that natural disasters fueled by climate change threaten to upend regional economies.
Home insurance costs are poised to skyrocket for all Floridians — not just those who live in the places most vulnerable to major storms. The state will be forced to impose new taxes and penalties as it tries to keep the market afloat. New burdens will fall largely on low- and middle-income homeowners. For many working class Floridians, homeownership may become impossible to afford as a result.
“We already have a housing affordability crisis, and now we’re adding this new pressure,” said Zac Taylor, a professor at the Delft University of Technology who has studied climate risk in Florida and grew up in the city of Tampa. ”Insurance is potentially the thing that is destabilizing homeownership — ironically, because it’s the thing that’s supposed to protect [homeownership] and make it possible.”
While homeowner’s insurance nationwide averages around $1500 a year, Floridians already pay almost three times as much. The state’s insurance market has been struggling ever since Hurricane Andrew made landfall south of Miami in 1992 and damaged more than 150,000 buildings. After Andrew, large private insurers like Travelers and Allstate froze their business in the state rather than risk having to pay for future disasters. This led to the creation of a public option called Citizens, which functions as an “insurer of last resort” for people who can’t find private coverage. The state also subsidized small “specialty” insurers who would only offer homeowner’s coverage in Florida, shifting market share away from national companies.
But this local market has begun to teeter in recent years, even in the absence of any major hurricanes. One reason is that Florida has become a hotbed for sham roof-repair lawsuits. Shady contractors approach a homeowner and offer her a free new roof, then file a claim with her insurer on her behalf, even if her roof didn’t actually suffer any insurable damage. Then, the contractors litigate the claim until the insurer settles. This has gotten quite expensive for insurers in the state: Florida accounted for 8 percent of all homeowner’s insurance claims in the United States in 2019, but more than 75 percent of all insurance lawsuits.
At the same time, it has become much more expensive for insurance companies to purchase their own insurance. The companies buy this so-called “reinsurance” to guarantee that they have enough money to make large payouts after big disasters, but the large global companies that sell reinsurance have gotten cagey about offering it in Florida, considering that the state has built millions of additional homes in areas vulnerable to natural disasters even as climate change increases their risk. The reinsurance companies have raised prices to account for this, and many local insurers have struggled to keep up with the costs.
The high costs of litigation and reinsurance have already driven six local insurers bankrupt so far this year, even before Hurricane Ian. In the summer, a ratings firm called Demotech threatened to downgrade several other specialty insurers, saying they weren’t stable enough to deal with a big storm. That downgrade would have made them worthless in the eyes of major lenders and effectively removed them from the market. It caused a flurry of concern from state lawmakers, one of whom said the market was about to “collapse.”
Hurricane Ian is likely to hasten that collapse by driving at least a few more homeowner’s insurance companies into bankruptcy. If Ian’s damages are close to the estimated $30 to $50 billion, it would be especially catastrophic for Florida’s already-struggling specialty insurers. The companies that do survive will have to pay even more for reinsurance, which will force them to further raise prices.
“I would predict the price of insurance will go up in Florida, or, certainly insurers will be looking for price increases,” Alice Hill, a climate change and insurance expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Grist. “It’s proving to be risky, particularly with climate change, looking at these storms intensifying more quickly.… Homeowner’s insurance is written on a year-by-year basis, so if a big event comes through, there’s a change next year.”
New bankruptcies and price hikes on the private market would drive thousands more Floridians to Citizens, the public insurance provider that the state established after Hurricane Andrew. The number of Floridians enrolled in Citizens has already doubled over the past decade as other private insurers have collapsed, and this year the program surpassed 1 million policyholders for the first time, having doubled in size over two years. It controls around 15 percent of the insurance market — and more than twice that in especially vulnerable places like Miami.
“You’re going to see a big increase in the number of policies going to Citizens, and you could see a significant portion of the private market just go away,” said Charles Nyce, a professor of risk management at Florida State University and an expert on the state’s insurance market. “And the more of the market Citizens takes, the more at risk the state is.”
That’s because the state is on the hook to help Citizens pay out claims after big storms. Citizens has about $13 billion right now, and early estimates suggest that claims from Ian will only cost the program around $4 billion, so it’s not in any immediate financial jeopardy. But the program will balloon in size over the coming years as it absorbs all the people who lose coverage on the private market after Ian, and its expanding roster will leave it more vulnerable to the next big storm. If another Ian comes around, Citizens might find itself short on cash.
This would force Citizens to make what is called an assessment, or a “hurricane tax” in local lingo. When the program faces financial difficulties, it can impose a surcharge on every person in Florida who buys any kind of property insurance, from home insurance to auto insurance to business insurance. This surcharge acts as a kind of tax subsidy for people in vulnerable areas: Everyone in Florida ponies up to ensure the state can help storm victims rebuild.
“That’s the biggest concern I have,” said Nyce. “Say you’re a single mom working in Orlando living in an apartment, but yet you have to own a car. Now you’re paying an assessment on your auto insurance to subsidize someone who lives on the beach.”
Since Hurricane Ian is unlikely to stem the tide of new arrivals to Florida — and since the only insurance option for these new arrivals will be Citizens — Nyce said that these assessments could become much more common as the years go on. In the past they have never exceeded around 1.5 percent of annual insurance bills, but future storms could drive that number higher.
Citizens can also issue bonds to fund payouts, said Nyce. But because it would issue those bonds against the state’s credit rating, doing so could dampen the state’s own ability to borrow money, again leading to higher costs down the road. And the more tax revenue the state spends propping up Citizens, the less it has to fund other essential services like education and transportation.
The upshot is that Hurricane Ian could make life in Florida a lot more expensive for everyone in the state who owns a home or a car. Decades of rapid development and a new era of supercharged storms have created a risk burden that is impossible for the private insurance market to bear. Now, in the aftermath of Ian, the state’s 21 million residents will assume more and more of that risk, and their wallets will see its earliest effects.
For an example of how these costs might impact vulnerable Floridians, Taylor pointed to the community of Miami Gardens, a majority-Black community in the Miami metroplex that is one of the last places in the region where homes are affordable.
“How is this community supposed to reduce its risk?” they said. “How are homeowners going to deal with this? We’re talking potentially the equivalent of multiple monthly mortgage payments … and this is not poised to go [back] down. Fewer and fewer people are going to be able to afford their houses.”
A century ago, the coast of southwest Florida was a maze of swamps and shoals, prone to frequent flooding and almost impossible to navigate by boat. These days, the region is home to more than 2 million people, and over the past decade it has ranked as one of the fastest-growing parts of the country. Many of those new homes sit mere feet from the ocean, surrounded by canals that flow to the Gulf of Mexico.
These vulnerable cities only exist thanks to the audacious maneuvers of real estate developers, who manipulated coastal and riverine ecosystems to create valuable land over the course of the 20th century. These attempts to tame the forces of nature by tearing out mangroves and draining swamps had disastrous environmental consequences, but they also allowed for the construction of tens of thousands of homes, right in the water’s path.
“What this is basically showing us is that developers, if there’s money to be made, they will develop it,” said Stephen Strader, an associate professor at Villanova University who studies the societal forces behind disasters. “You have a natural wetland marsh … the primary function of those regions is to protect the inland areas from things like storm surge. You’re building on top of it, you’re replacing it with subdivisions and homes. What do we expect to see?”
The root of southwest Florida’s vulnerability is a development technique called dredge-and-fill: Developers dug up land from the bottom of rivers and swamps, then piled it up until it rose out of the water, creating solid artificial land where there had once been only damp mud.
This kind of dredging began well before Florida’s postwar real estate boom, when the state’s agriculture and phosphate mining industries wanted to control inland flooding, create navigable pathways for boats, and cut paths for rainwater to flow into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of these efforts, the flow of water to the coasts from Florida’s soggy inland became tame and predictable, and the channels gave boats direct access to the Gulf of Mexico. Developers began to see the southwest coast as a perfect place for retirees and soldiers returning from World War II to settle down — they just had to build houses for them first. They carved existing swamps into a dense network of so-called finger canals, then used the extra dirt to elevate the remaining land, letting the water in.
“Dredge-and-fill became the established method to meet the growing postwar demand for waterfront housing,” wrote three historians in a 2002 historical study of southwest Florida’s waterways.
The most infamous developer to use this method was Gulf American, a firm founded in the 1950s by two scamming brothers named Leonard and Jack Rosen who had also sold televisions and cures for baldness. Gulf American bought a massive plot of land across the river from Fort Myers, cut hundreds of canals in it, and sold pieces of it by mail order to retirees and returning veterans up north. The result was Cape Coral, which the writer Michael Grunwald once called “a boomtown that shouldn’t exist.”
“Though the main objective was to create land for home construction, the use of dredge-and-fill produced a suburban landscape of artificial canals, waterways and basins,” wrote the authors of the 2002 survey. “The canals served a number of purposes, including drainage, creation of waterfront property as an enhancement for sales, access to open water for boating, and a source of fill material for the creation of developable lots.”
The three Mackle brothers, who owned another prominent firm called General Development Corporation, adopted a similar technique on other sections of Florida’s Gulf Coast. They developed more than a dozen communities across the state, including Port Charlotte, North Port, and Marco Island, all of which fell inside Ian’s radius as it made landfall on Wednesday. In all these cases, development involved carving up coastal swampland, creating a canal network to drain out excess water, and building houses on the land that remained.
“It’s just the same reason why golf courses have lots of water hazards — the big holes that they dig out to put soil on the land and make the fairways become lakes,” said Strader. “And now everybody’s got a waterfront property … but it also means you get more water intrusion.”
Backlash over the environmental impacts of dredge-and-fill eventually led to restrictions on the process in the 1970s. The public grew outraged at the idea of chemicals and human waste running off from residential canal systems into the ocean. That didn’t stop new arrivals from rushing into canalside developments like Cape Coral, which grew by 25 percent between 2010 and 2019. It helped, of course, that southwest Florida saw very few hurricanes over the second half of the 20th century. Only three hurricanes have made landfall in the region since 1960 (during which time the sea level off Fort Myers has risen about eight inches), and none of them caused catastrophic flooding.
Hurricane Ian brought that reprieve to an end, bringing home the consequences of risky development in the same way Hurricane Ida brought home the consequences of coastal erosion last September. When Hurricane Ida rampaged through the Louisiana coast, it drew attention to the deterioration of that state’s coastal wetlands, which had long acted as a buffer against storm surge. In southwest Florida, something different has happened: Not only did developers clear the wetlands, but they also pushed right out to the water’s edge, leaving just inches of space between homes and the Gulf’s waters. With sea levels rising and catastrophic storms growing more common, the era of constant flooding has started again — this time with millions more people in the way.
In the last century, only nine hurricanes with winds topping 150 miles per hour have made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Ian became the tenth on Wednesday afternoon, striking the coast of southwest Florida as a Category 4 storm. Ian submerged entire barrier islands, ripped houses apart, and pushed a huge wall of water toward a chain of seaside cities from Sarasota to Fort Myers. It will likely flood thousands of homes.
Just five days ago, Ian was a weak tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean. The storm underwent a process known as “rapid intensification” as it entered the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, strengthening to a Category 3 hurricane by the time it made landfall in western Cuba. Scientists have found that climate change may make episodes of rapid intensification more likely by raising ocean surface temperatures. At least six hurricanes underwent rapid intensification during the 2021 hurricane season, and at least 10 during the 2020 season.
More than 200 miles of the Florida coast, home to 2.5 million people, were under a mandatory evacuation order in the days leading up to the storm. On Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicted that parts of Charlotte County, where the hurricane made landfall just north of Fort Myers, could see between 12 and 16 feet of storm surge — enough to submerge almost all coastal land.
“Nobody alive, nobody who has ever lived in Charlotte County, has ever seen what’s about to come,” Brian Gleason, the county’s communications director, told Grist. “Storm surge at that level is a deadly occurrence. No home is airtight, and if it’s not airtight it’s not watertight. If the wind starts taking out windows, and you’ve got seven feet of storm surge, it’s coming in the house.”
Roughly 30 miles south, Cape Coral resident Linda Bendon was hunkered down in her house with flashlights and a propane grill on Wednesday afternoon.
“This is our first big storm,” Bendon, who moved to Florida from upstate New York after retiring three years ago, told Grist by phone. “Wind is howling, and lots of stuff is flying around. Our bedroom window just blew out, and power is out.”
Bendon’s car has already been struck several times by uprooted trees, and she has been eyeing the rising water level in the canal across the street from her house. The canal is close to overtopping its walls, and flooding is widespread elsewhere in the area.
Initial forecasts suggested Hurricane Ian might hit the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, home to about 3 million people, but it curled south upon entering the Gulf of Mexico and veered toward Cape Coral and Fort Myers. After landfall, meteorologists expect the storm to move north through the state as a weakening tropical storm, then exit into the Atlantic Ocean before turning around and striking Georgia or South Carolina. The storm will drop several inches of rain on areas that have already seen double-digit rainfall totals in the past month, worsening the potential for floods.
“The majority of the state of Florida is in Ian’s crosshairs,” said Deanne Criswell, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, at a press conference on Wednesday morning. The Weather Channel predicted widespread power outages from the coast all the way to the inland city of Orlando, and said some areas could be without power for weeks or months.
Even as Ian passed over Cuba on Tuesday night, it didn’t lose strength. It grew even stronger as it passed over the Straits of Florida. By early Wednesday morning, the storm had recorded winds of around 155 miles per hour, just below the threshold of Category 5 classification. The diameter of the storm stretched more than 300 miles, from Tampa to Havana. Radar scanners picked up individual gusts of 190 miles per hour.
“Catastrophic is an appropriate word,” wrote Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, on Twitter.
In Cuba, rampant flooding struck the province of Pinar del Rio, forcing residents to flee to higher ground. By late Tuesday evening, the government had reported that the entire country was without power: The storm had knocked out key transmission lines that convey electricity across the island. Crews were working to restore power through the night and into Wednesday morning.
A woman stands on a flooded street in Havana, Cuba, on September 28, 2022, after the passage of Hurricane Ian. Yamil Lage / AFP via Getty Images
The Florida Keys, which in the leadup to the storm were thought to be distant from Ian’s major effects, also saw widespread flooding. That’s thanks to the so-called king tides, a series of extra-high tides that arrive every autumn thanks to the alignment of the earth and the moon. The rotation of the storm combined with high tide on Tuesday night to produce the third-highest storm surge ever recorded in the Keys, overflowing canals and flooding cars across the islands. Flooding was expected to continue for several days as tides rose and fell.
“The tide keeps getting higher and higher,” Shanna Schroeder, a resident of Big Pine Key, told Grist on Tuesday night. “It’s not raining right now, but it’s very windy. We have water from the canal that is creeping into our backyard.” The water peaked early in the morning on Wednesday, she said, stopping just short of flowing into her house. Tracking buoys near Key West measured waves as high as 25 feet.
But as Hurricane Ian approached landfall, the primary concern for emergency management officials in southwest Florida was storm surge. That’s because the cities of Charlotte Harbor and Punta Gorda sit at the mouth of the Gasparilla Sound, a concave body of water that funnels out to the Gulf of Mexico. They also contain hundreds of man-made canals that funnel water away from homes and out toward absorbent mangrove forests. The storm surge from Ian is pushing all that water backward, overflowing backyard canals and flooding thousands of homes.
“The canal system is meant to convey water from higher parts of the county to the harbor,” said Gleason, the Charlotte County communications director. “When the surge comes up those canals, the 10 to 15 inches of rain that we’re gonna get has nowhere to go except up.”
There were similar concerns in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, which lie along the Caloosahatchee River and also contain hundreds of miles of residential canals. These cities are on the right-hand side of Ian’s circular motion, bringing the worst combination of storm surge and extreme wind. High-end projections suggested that most of the land area in both cities could be underwater for hours, and by Wednesday afternoon nearby barrier islands were already vanishing, along with coastal sections of Fort Myers.
Cape Coral is one of several coastal cities in Florida that faces enormous surge risk thanks to the audacious practices of twentieth-century real estate developers, who drained and reclaimed swampy coastal areas to create large suburbs on artificial land. The city’s intricate canal network allowed it to sprawl out across the marsh. As a result it briefly became the nation’s fastest-growing city, but it also left tens of thousands of people just a few feet above sea level. The scale of the risk became clear after 2017’s Hurricane Irma, which scraped the Fort Myers area on its way out of the Keys. It took years for the Fort Myers region to recover from even that glancing blow. With a direct hit from Hurricane Ian this week, a broader reckoning may be on the way.
Tropical storm Ian turned into a hurricane on Monday, on course to make landfall in Florida later this week. As of Monday afternoon, the storm system was moving toward western Cuba with sustained winds of at least 100 miles per hour. Ian is expected to continue moving north and northeast, threatening towns along Florida’s west coast with dangerous storm surges, high winds, and heavy rains.
Though cautioning that Ian’s exact path is uncertain, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Center placed Tampa Bay under a hurricane watch on Monday, with Hillsborough County and Pinellas County issuing evacuation orders for some areas soon after.
Officials are warning people in the Tampa area to take immediate action. “It’s time to stop looking on the internet and hoping that it’ll go away. It’s time to start acting,” Jamie Rhome, the National Hurricane Center acting director, told CNN.
Earlier this year, the Tampa Bay Times looked at public land records, storm surge maps, property records, and census data and found that the heavily populated Tampa Bay region — home to both Tampa and St. Petersburg — is fragile in the face of impending hurricanes, no matter the category.
The report identified at least 700 key buildings, from places of worship to schools, at risk of major flooding with a Category 1 storm, with the devastation increasing under stronger winds. The region is prone to devastation even with smaller-scale storms: one in nine properties in Pinellas County, the coastal county of a million people that includes Tampa and St. Petersburg, could see 3 feet or more of storm surge during Category 1 storms. Currently, the storm surge caused by Hurricane Ian is expected to raise water levels five to 10 feet in Tampa Bay.
Other studies show that Tampa has the second highest number of properties at risk of flooding in the country, and seven of the top 10 cities in the country at greatest risk from economic losses were in Florida, with St. Petersburg ranked second and Tampa third.
In a press briefing on Monday, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said the city is “preparing for the worst and hoping for the best” ahead of Ian’s landfall. “We’ve seen these storms get more dangerous in the last few years, and so you’ve got to heed these warnings,” Castor said.
As oceans warm, studies show that recent hurricanes are wetter and more violent. But until recently, this year’s hurricane season was largely quiet. Hurricane Fiona, the year’s most devastating hurricane to date, started in mid-September and made landfall in Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, and the Dominican Republic, killing at least six people combined. Millions of residents in Puerto Rico are now without power or water, with recovery efforts still underway. Fiona then moved north along the Atlantic and touched down in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia last Saturday, killing at least one person.
Ian has already caused gusting winds and heavy rainfall in the Cayman Islands as it heads north. It’s expected that Ian will hit Cuba early Tuesday with “life threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall,” National Hurricane Center senior specialist Daniel Brown told The Associated Press on Monday.
As Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico, its path could change, but the current forecast has it making landfall on the Florida panhandle or on the western side of the state. In preparation, both the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, and President Joe Biden have issued states of emergency in Florida in the face of this rapidly strengthening storm.
While the island struggles to recover, Fiona has moved on, hitting the Dominican Republic and colliding with Canada’s Eastern Seaboard on Saturday, leaving hundreds of thousands without power in Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, parts of the Caribbean and Florida are bracing for Hurricane Ian, which is expected to build to a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday.
The level of devastation wrought by Fiona in Puerto Rico, and the slow recovery in the days since, have fueled local anger towards the government, which many say mismanaged recovery funds after Hurricane Maria knocked out the island’s electric grid and other critical infrastructure in 2017.
“We’re questioning why it’s taking so long,” said Ruth Santiago, a community and environmental lawyer based in Salinas, one of the worst-hit areas in the south of the island. “This was a Category 1 hurricane that did not hit us directly, except for a little bit in the southwest.” By comparison, Hurricane Maria was nearly a Category 5 and hit the island straight on.
A centerpoint of public ire has been LUMA Energy, the private company that took over Puerto Rico’s power transmission system last year. Previously, the country had been serviced by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, or PREPA, a corruption-plagued public utility that went bankrupt months before Hurricane Maria. During the debt restructuring process, PREPA contracted with LUMA, a joint venture between American and Canadian companies, to transmit and distribute power. But like PREPA before it, the private utility’s tenure was riddled with mismanagement of the grid, delaying recovery from Maria and leaving the island vulnerable to Fiona.
“I define a storm in many ways,” said Tara Rodríguez Besosa, co-founder of El Departamento de la Comida, a grassroots farming collective that works towards food sovereignty in Puerto Rico. “Fiona is a storm, and the privatization of the electric grid is a storm as well.”
People protest outside the headquarters of LUMA Energy, the company that took over the transmission and distribution of Puerto Rico’s electric authority, after a blackout hit the island in April 2022.
RICARDO ARDUENGO / AFP via Getty Images
Many viewed the LUMA takeover as part of a long trend of privatization that has hampered Puerto Rican public services and decreased democratic control, a dynamic stemming from the colonial relationship between the United States and Puerto Rico, officially a U.S territory.
“Right now, people are focusing on the immediate emergency, but I would not be surprised to see a big resurgence of protests against LUMA,” said Carlos Berríos Polanco, a Puerto Rican journalist currently based in Ponce who covered the demonstrations in July and August. Already he has documented at least six protests that occurred over the weekend or are planned for this week. In an effort to avert further LUMA-driven delays, town mayors across the island have been hiring their own electric brigades, often comprised of ex-PREPA workers. In some of these cases LUMA has called the police and threatened mayors with arrest.
The company’s contract is up for renewal on November 15, a deal that would lock in the utility for another 15 years; officials are now re-examining the partnership.
According to Santiago, Puerto Ricans are wondering why LUMA and PREPA have not implemented renewable energy with the historic amount of disaster funding they had at their disposal from Hurricane Maria. The country received $9 billion for electric grid reconstruction from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, but only $40 million has been spent. After damaged ports prevented imports of fossil fuels from reaching the island, energy experts and climate activists advocated for investment in locally-generated solar and wind. But the government continued to push for fossil fuel infrastructure and as of March was generating less than 5 percent of its electricity from renewables, even with a law in place to achieve 40 percent renewable energy by 2026 and 100 percent by 2050.
Beyond a transition to renewables, experts and activists have called for a decentralization of the grid. Power plants along the southern coast in Puerto Rico generate around 70 percent of the country’s energy, but the majority of demand is in the north. When storms come through running east to west, they knock out the power lines that run across the island. Santiago, who sits on the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, said that government initiatives to build large solar farms on agricultural lands have been misguided; they maintain the centralized pattern of energy generation, damage biodiverse habitats, and take up valuable agricultural land.
In the southern community of Coquí, residents have attributed record flood levels during Fiona to soil compaction from two utility-scale solar projects on nearby agricultural land zoned as specially protected soil. Indeed, the environmental impact report for the most recent project predicted changes to water flows in the area. Instead of large-scale solar farms, energy activists have called on the government to support smaller grids and more rooftop solar to create a more decentralized energy supply. Studieshave shown it would be possible to cover almost all the electricity needs for the island with rooftop solar alone.
Puerto Ricans with the resources to install rooftop solar after Hurricane Maria fared well during this most recent storm. The country underwent something of a grassroots solar revolution following Maria, with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis reporting last week that over 40,000 Puerto Rican homes have installed solar panels since 2017 (most of these are hooked up to battery backup systems). The non-profit Casa Pueblo in Adjuntas, a town in the mountains in central Puerto Rico, led an effort to develop a community-scale solar initiative, installing systems in over 100 homes and 30 businesses and opening its doors to those without power.
A Casa Pueblo worker installs a solar energy system at a home in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, in 2018.
AP Photo / Dennis M. Rivera Pichardo
Just as with energy independence, a grassroots movement to establish food sovereignty through community farms sprung up in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Puerto Rico imports approximately 85 percent of its food supply, leaving residents vulnerable to food insecurity in the event of shipping disruptions and damaged ports. Hurricane Fiona severely damaged farms across the island, wiping out 90 percent of the eastern region’s plantain crop, as well as small farms that prioritized crop diversification after Maria. As reported in the Washington Post, many of these smaller farms will not qualify for crop insurance. Damages to domestic crops may also mean higher food prices for Puerto Ricans in the coming months.
Marissa Reyes-Díaz, who co-founded Güakiá Colectivo Agroecológico, a farm in Dorado, in the north of Puerto Rico near San Juan, said community farmers are scrambling to harvest what they can and distribute food.
“The government has not prioritized small farms, but we are doing our best without structural support,” said Reyes-Díaz, who also emphasized the connection between energy independence and food sovereignty. “It remains to be seen in the coming weeks what the situation will be.”
According to Berríos Polanco, many grocery stores across the island have also had to close due to lack of diesel to run their generators. Currently, a British petroleum ship with 300,000 barrels of diesel is waiting for a Jones Act waiver to land off the southern coast of Puerto Rico; because of the Jones Act, foreign ships coming from U.S. ports cannot dock without a waiver and the act has been criticized for increasing energy costs for Puerto Rico over the years.
On Thursday, President Biden promised to cover 100 percent of recovery costs from Hurricane Fiona for a period of 30 days; FEMA has been adding municipalities to the list to receive aid as information becomes available, although certain hard-hit counties in the south and west have yet to be included in the disaster declaration.
“We know each year these things are going to continue to happen,” said Rodríguez Besosa, who is taking steps to make sure her farm can operate as off the grid as possible. She added, “It’s interesting that the same entities meant to support us are the ones that have created the largest destruction and obstacles.”
On the evening of December 10, 2021, a tornado tore through the southern Illinois town of Edwardsville. Workers at an Amazon warehouse there were given about 10 minutes to find safety before the tornado hit, with wind speeds of 150 mph. Part of the structure’s 1.1 million-square-foot roof came down and two 40-foot tall concrete walls collapsed.
Six workers were killed. According to lawsuits filed in the wake of the deaths, Amazon managers allegedly told workers they would be fired if they left their jobs to get away from the storm. And while the Occupational Safety and Health administration did not levy any fines against Amazon, the episode has raised concerns about warehouse workers and their safety in severe weather events.
Two of the workers killed were in the district of Congresswoman Cori Bush, a Missouri Democrat who earlier this month introduced legislation that would protect workers during future climate and natural disasters.
The bill is called the Worker Safety in Climate Disasters Act. It guarantees two weeks paid emergency leave for employees unable to work during a “climate disaster,” whether due to road or transit disruptions, family emergencies, personal injury, school closures, or forced relocation.
The bill’s criteria of a “climate disaster” includes earthquakes, floods, fires, extreme heat, hurricanes, severe blizzards, superstorms, tornadoes, tsunamis, and utility failures.
“This really provides peace of mind and safety for people who are thinking, ‘Do I weather the storm or do I go to work?’” said Denise Garcia, the co-director of Central Florida Jobs with Justice, an Orlando-based worker advocacy organization.
And the disruptions caused by a climate disaster are not felt equally. A 2021 analysis from the Environmental Protection Agency found that low-income and hourly workers would be more likely to be vulnerable to traffic delays from road closures due to flooding or asphalt erosion. The consequences of these delays would also likely cause missed or delayed medical care appointments and losses of wages.
Some private companies have enacted their own “climate leave” policies to provide their workers with paid time off in the event of “extreme weather and environmental conditions due to climate change.”
But outside of select employer policies, there are few to no concrete protections for paid leave for workers across the labor force, particularly those in low-wage service industry or agricultural jobs. And when hurricanes or other natural disasters hit and put workplaces out of commission for weeks at a time, it adds to the economic impact and stress on low-income households.
Congresswoman Cori Bush, a Missouri Democrat, speaks during a candlelight vigil on December 17, 2021, for the six Amazon employees killed during a December 10 tornado near the Amazon distribution center in Edwardsville, Illinois.
Tim Vizer / AFP via Getty Images
That’s where the drafters of the Worker Safety in Climate Disasters Act hope to make an impact. “We want to cover everyone, because everyone deserves this as a baseline,” said Saul Levin, the policy advisor for Cori Bush. “And the climate crisis is escalating.”
But many employers continue to demand that their workers show up during extreme weather. In September 2017, Hurricane Irma devastated much of Florida. Central Florida Jobs with Justice, whose work coverage area includes metros of Tampa and Orlando, conducted a workers survey of 134 people in the aftermath of the hurricane, and found that more than half of respondents said their employers threatened to fire or discipline them for not showing up to work during the storm.
“Climate change is happening, and we need to have some protections for people to be able to live with climate change and the negative consequences of it,” said Carisa Harris Adamson, the director of the Northern Center of Occupational & Environmental Health at UC Berkeley.Harris Adamson is nonetheless heartened by the potential impact of the Worker Safety in Climate Disasters Act. “It does show that we’ve learned a bit from [COVID] and are trying to apply some of that to the negative impacts of climate change. And that has to do with taking care of loved ones or kids that are out of school.”
The legislation’s text states that part-time employees would be paid for the number of hours that they work, on average, over a two week period. Full-time employees would be paid for up to 80 hours of work. Employers who violate the legislation would be considered to have failed to pay minimum wages under the Fair Labor Standards Act, which would result in a $10,000 fine.
Garcia of Central Florida Jobs with Justice emphasized the broad appeal of this potential legislation. “This is just common sense,” she said, before adding, “it would be very hard to politicize.”
At least eight homes were reportedly swept into the sea in southern Newfoundland Saturday after post-Tropical Storm Fiona slammed into eastern Canada with winds racing at nearly 81 miles per hour and the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded for a storm in the country.
After knocking out power in Puerto Rico last week when it hit the U.S. territory as a Category 1 hurricane and intensifying to a Category 4 storm as it approached Bermuda, Fiona made landfall in Nova Scotia, where it caused “very extensive damage” at an airport in Sydney and cut off power for more than 415,000 of the province’s 500,000 customers.
On Sunday, more than 265,000 households in Nova Scotia were still without power, and the province’s electricity company warned the outages would persist “for multiple days.”
Fiona has been blamed for at least five deaths in the Caribbean; in Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, one woman has been listed as missing after her home was “struck by a devastating wave,” and authorities were investigating whether “she went out with the water,” Royal Canadian Mounted Police spokesperson Jolene Garland toldThe Washington Post late Saturday.
Another woman in the area was being treated for injuries after being rescued.
Port aux Basques was also where a number of structures were seen floating out to sea as the storm battered the town.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona, which was downgraded from a Category 3 hurricane, overwhelmed coastal towns in eastern Canada — flooding roadways, knocking out power and destroying buildings. https://t.co/c7JoHoFNh0pic.twitter.com/wlM6iIPy9j
“I’m seeing homes in the ocean,” René J. Roy, a resident of the town and editor of the local news outlet Wreckhouse Press, told the Associated Press. “I’m seeing rubble floating all over the place. It’s complete and utter destruction… It’s quite terrifying.”
Residents posted videos of the destruction on social media.
Rescue workers in Port aux Basques were also battling electrical fires after the storm subsided.
In Halifax, Nova Scotia, Mayor Mike Savage said the roof of an apartment building had collapsed and officials had evacuated 100 people to an emergency center.
The historically low-pressure storm — the kind associated with strong winds and heavy rainfall — offered the latest sign that the human-caused climate emergency is fueling extreme weather, said 350.org co-founder and author Bill McKibben.
Fiona smashed into Canada with by far the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the nation. This is not the same earth we were born onto https://t.co/EuyhbqLYrJ
At The Conversation, civil engineering professor Ryan P. Mulligan of Queen’s University in Ontario noted that the storm caused waves to reach more than 32 feet high on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, adding that “hurricanes with the size and strength of Fiona do not usually maintain their high wind speeds this far north.”
“How did Fiona get into Canadian water with such size and intensity? This is related to its heat source: the ocean,” wrote Mulligan. “Ocean warming may be linked to the increasing intensity of storms making landfall and to the development of strong hurricanes.”
“So climate change leads to warmer ocean water at higher latitudes,” he added. “A warmer future increases the probability that more intense storms will reach Canadian coasts.”
As climate scientists have warned, stronger hurricanes and tropical storms “what we continue seeing as a result of decades of climate damage,” said former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner.
Climate activists, led by Fridays for Future, are holding a global climate strike today to pressure world leaders to do more to address the crisis. We speak to Mikaela Loach, who has helped lead the fight against developing the Cambo oil field off the coast of Scotland and who describes the importance of seeing antiracism and climate activism as linked. “We’re in this crisis because fossil fuels and nature have been completely extracted and destroyed to make profit and to continue expansion of economies, in the Global North in particular,” says Loach.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMYGOODMAN:Climate strike. That’s the cry of youth climate activists today to urge world leaders to do more to confront the climate emergency. This comes as a third of Pakistan is underwater, severe drought in the Horn of Africa has brought Somalia to the brink of famine, and Puerto Rico remains largely without power after a devastating hurricane.
Earlier this week, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres blasted fossil fuel companies for their role in the climate emergency.
SECRETARY–GENERALANTÓNIOGUTERRES:The fossil fuel industry is feasting on hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and windfall profits, while households’ budgets shrink and our planet burns. Excellencies, let’s tell it like it is: Our world is addicted to fossil fuels, and it’s time for an intervention. We need to hold fossil fuel companies and their enablers to account.
AMYGOODMAN:We’re joined now by Mikaela Loach, leading youth climate activist taking part in today’s climate strike, one of three claimants who took the U.K. government to court for giving taxpayers’ money to oil and gas companies. She also has helped lead the fight against the Cambo oil field off the coast of Scotland. Mikaela was born in Jamaica, grew up in Britain, is a medical student at the University of Edinburgh and co-host ofThe Yikes Podcast. She is joining us today from New York in the midst of this Climate Week.
Mikaela, welcome toDemocracy Now!It’s great to have you with us. If you can start off by talking about the significance of this climate strike today?
MIKAELALOACH:Yeah. Thank you so much, Amy, for having me here.
Today, the climate strike, especially in New York, is very significant because we’ve just had Climate Week New York, we’ve just had the U.N. General Assembly happening this week, and, as kind of usual, there hasn’t been enough happening. There have been a lot of incredible things that have happened, like, for example, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia gave an incredible address on the floor of the U.N., really calling out how much kind of Global North nations are still inflicting imperialism and control over Global South nations. And also we saw Vanuatu be first nation-state to call on the floor of the U.N. for an international fossil fuel treaty to be signed. So, that means a treaty that would mean that all countries would be signing it and saying they don’t want to have more fossil fuels. So those kind of things are really important, and I think that the strike can be a pressure from the outside. I struggle with a lot of the U.N. stuff because of how much it can be very, like, reformist and not really be going to the roots of the problems that exist. And that’s why I think these kind of strikes and this pressure can maybe shift things a bit more.
AMYGOODMAN:Talk about your lawsuit against the U.K. government.
MIKAELALOACH:Yeah. So, the U.K. government previously — so now they’ve recently changed the kind of tax regime there a little bit, but previously the North Sea, which is just off the coast of Scotland, was the most profitable place in the world to extract oil and gas. And that’s because the government made this deliberately really profitable tax regime where basically oil and gas companies were being paid to pollute. So, they were being given huge amounts of money from the public funds to promoting and polluting. They weren’t paying any tax. Companies like Shell and BP didn’t pay any tax for multiple years on their operations there. They were actually being paid more money than they were paying. It was kind of ridiculous. And so, we took the U.K. government to court around that, around this regime, the fact that — yeah, the fact that they’ve made it so profitable for these companies.
AMYGOODMAN:Shell announced it was scrapping plans for Cambo in December of 2021. You were one of the leaders of the protest. And I was wondering if you could explain what that is, but today’s headline on thewebsiteEnergy Voice says, “Government to fast track five North Sea oil and gas fields, including Cambo and Murlach.”
MIKAELALOACH:Yeah. So, basically — that was last year — we found out that the Cambo oil field was being set for approval. Cambo was a ginormous — well, still is a ginormous oil field, thankfully has not been extracted from yet. And at the time, it was going to be approved in the next couple months. And kind of in the U.K. when oil fields like this have come up, and there hadn’t really been that much resistance to them — and what we did is we formed this huge campaign. It was like not just myself, like a bunch of wonderful people who came together to resist this field, because it was so massive and would have such an impact. We managed to stop it from being approved. Shell dropped out, which was a historic feat for a campaign.
But you’re right that now what’s happening is that the new prime minister of the U.K., Liz Truss, previously worked for Shell, and she is now trying to push even more oil and gas fields through, like she’s trying to bring Cambo back, but also, kind of even more worryingly than Cambo is Rosebank, is this new oil field that is the biggest one in the North Sea. And if it was extracted from, the emissions from this field alone would be more than every low-income country combined, just from one field. And the new kind of administration in the U.K. are trying to push through all of these fields, and we really have to stop them. And that’s why a coalition of groups have been coming together to try and kind of take it from every angle and show that we cannot have any new fossil fuels, if we want to live for future.
AMYGOODMAN:But it is truly amazing. I mean, this is one of the most powerful not just oil companies, but companies in the world, Shell. Do you feel it was your protests, the protests of so many, that stopped them in their tracks last December?
MIKAELALOACH:For sure. I mean, even in, like, industry articles, like oil and gas industry articles, they were writing, saying that it was because of public pressure and protest, which is what caused them to have to drop out, because it actually made developing Cambo not financially viable because of how many different, like, insurers were dropping out, about how much protest there was, about how much disruption there had been. There were so many different tactics that were used. We tried to have like a concerted media campaign, but also there was direct action, like we occupied the U.K. government building. Greenpeace activists actually blocked — used kayaks to block the port where they were trying to go out and start the extraction. It was a ton of different — and we also challenged Shell’sCEOatTEDCountdown’s event. We really tried to get them at every angle to make it the — it would just be too much of a nuisance for them to try and do this. And that’s why I think that we can be so powerful as people when we come together and put that pressure on. And Cambo was an example of that public pressure really causing a huge change.
AMYGOODMAN:A newreportfinds there are now over 215,000 individuals worldwide who are worth more than $50 million. That’s an increase of 46,000 people over the past year. That’s according to bank Credit Suisse. Mikaela Loach, you recently spoke at the Gates Foundation’s annual event, where you surprised many in the audience by saying, “I think billionaires shouldn’t exist,” and “I think the climate crisis was caused by capitalism.” Elaborate.
MIKAELALOACH:Yeah, it was a big decision to even go into that space. I usually avoid these spaces, because I don’t agree with them. I don’t believe that billionaire philanthrocapitalism will save us. So, the idea that the same people who caused this crisis should be in charge of the solutions just doesn’t make sense to me. And I think that what it means is that these people will only choose solutions that allow their companies to continue to profit and extract and continue capitalism — and allow capitalism to continue, which has got us into this mess, so I don’t think it can solve it.
But I decided to kind of go into the discomfort of that space to challenge it, because these spaces rarely get challenged. People think that Bill Gates is great because he donates a ton of his money or has a foundation. But how much is him having that control having actually maybe a negative impact on our, like, collective liberation and the paths that we’re taking? So I decided to come into that space and challenge that.
And people gasped. I think people were quite shocked that there was someone who was actually kind of speaking that truth to power. I mean, there were like Secret Service agents everywhere protecting Gates. But it was — I think it was a really impactful moment. And the amount of people that came up to me afterwards, actually, and spoke to me and said that they had been thinking these things but haven’t been able to say them because their work is reliant on funding from the foundation, made me feel like it was the right thing to do in the end.
AMYGOODMAN:If you can talk more about your activism and your intersectional approach to everything, from climate to — well, as you put it, the climate crisis intersects with various oppressive systems, such as white supremacy, racism, migrant injustice and the refugee crisis. As you’ve said, it’s not a refugee crisis, it’s a crisis of empathy. Link all these different issues, Mikaela.
MIKAELALOACH:Yeah, for sure. I think if we look back at how this climate crisis started, so we’re in this crisis because fossil fuels and nature have been completely extracted and destroyed to make profit and to kind of continue expansion of economies, in the Global North in particular. And this kind of — this process of extracting from the Earth and this process of, like, imperialism and colonialism started with the colonial projects that began. BP’s original — British Petroleum’s original name was actually the First Exploitation Company. Shell were also involved with British colonialism inherently, when actually the U.K. sold Nigeria to Shell back many years ago and then began their exploitation there. So, it is inherently connected to white supremacy, to colonialism, to capitalism, to all these systems.
And therefore, if we’re going to tackle this crisis, we have to tackle these root causes; otherwise, we’ll just be replicating the same oppressive systems, but maybe they’ll look a bit green, but it won’t actually have solved the real problem. I think as a medic, as well, I see it as we don’t want to just put a Band-Aid on it. We don’t just want to be treating the symptoms. We have to treat the kind of real thing that’s causing the illness in the first place. And so, what we need to do is, yeah, [inaudible] go to those root systems and realize that actually, for me, that gives a lot of hope, because it’s like if — if the climate crisis is caused by all of these systems, then, to tackle it, we have to treat these systems, and therefore, we can actually create a better world for all of us. It’s not just about stopping complete disaster. It could also be about building things and building a better world for all of us, which I think could be really hopeful.
AMYGOODMAN:Do you feel like you’re winning?
MIKAELALOACH:I think we are. Well, I have to believe that. I don’t know how much — I don’t even know if that’s true, but I have to believe that we’re winning, because more and more people are rising up. I think I look especially at Latin America, and I was living in Colombia during the election of Francia Márquez and Gustavo Petro. And Francia Márquez is someone who I have respected for so long and whose climate activism is incredible. And that election was won by the people. It was won by grassroots campaigns. And it shows if Colombia can, like, overthrow elitist rule, 200 years’ elitist rule, then think about what all of us can do if we realize our own power and we come together. And I think more and more people are realizing that. And more oil fields are being stopped. More pipelines are being blocked. And I think that we can win, but it will require all of us to come together and actually — and take that into our own hands.
AMYGOODMAN:Finally, in 2020,Forbes, Global Citizen andBCCWoman’s Hournamed you one of the most influential women in the U.K. climate movement. Explain who influenced you most and who inspires you today.
MIKAELALOACH:Whoo. I think that I’m really inspired by Angela Davis’s work and the abolitionists and Audre Lorde, so people who maybe you wouldn’t see as “climate people” as such. But I think the abolitionists’ work is what has really moved me to be where I am today and doing the work that I’m doing today. This idea that we should — not idea, this reality that we should challenge absolutely everything, and not only be taking things down, but building things, too, has really inspired my work and inspired what I do. And I try and hold kind of those people, and also Nanny of the Maroons in Jamaica, who was a freedom fighter there — I try and hold them in my heart as I’m doing the work that I’m doing, and remind myself, like, “What would they do? And how can I challenge things more?”
AMYGOODMAN:Well, I want to thank you so much, Mikaela Loach, for joining us, climate justice activist, co-host ofThe Yikes Podcast, among many other things. Thank you so much.
MIKAELALOACH:Thank you. Thank you so much.
AMYGOODMAN:Next up,Model America. We look at a newMSNBCdocumentary series reexamining the killing of Phillip Pannell, a 16-year-old Black teenager shot dead by a white police officer in the suburb of Teaneck, New Jersey, in 1990, more than 30 years ago, and the lessons it has for today. Stay with us.
The corn on Zack Smith’s 1,200 acres is not his future. Smith, a fifth-generation farmer working the land near Buffalo Center, Iowa, a town of almost 900 near the Minnesota border, knows the climate is changing and, in the future, it will be too hot and dry for a crop like corn.
Researchers predict that by 2053, a large swath of the Midwest will experience at least one day with temperatures of 125 degrees Fahrenheit or hotter. According to the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit climate change research group, Smith’s farm could one day be part of an “Extreme Heat Belt,” a region that would include Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
Roughly the same region claims the name Corn Belt due to its output of corn, estimated at 10 billion bushels each year. These impending high temperatures will change the region’s economic and agricultural future, with growers already seeing drops in corn production this year. Changes to corn’s genetic makeup have increased its resilience to drought in recent years, but studies show that increasing heat is attacking soil conditions and, in turn, corn yield.
The future of Corn Belt and Midwest agriculture will get hotter and hotter, making each year more fragile and leaving farmers and growers adapting to extreme weather. Some states are even planting trees to protect livestock from the impending heat, which has been killing more and more animals each year. Farmers, growers, and scientists are now testing new grains, crops, and changes to land management to prepare for the impending wave of dangerous and destructive heat expected to accumulate in the middle of the country.
As the corn industry braces for these changes, Smith is putting his focus on the Stock Cropper, a technology he’s developing to shift away from corn production.
Simply, Stock Cropper is an animal pen that moves on its own. The autonomous, solar-powered, mobile barn moves animals through a pasture, allowing them to eat and fertilize along the way. The process of animals slowly moving forward along a strip of land helps the land retain nutrients, without the need to mow or use heavy machinery. Animals such as chickens, goats, lambs, or hogs are placed inside the roughly 24-foot-long pen that ranges from 10 to 30 feet wide.
“It’s putting animals back out on the land, but using technology to our benefit,” Smith said.
Smith grew up on a hog farm in Iowa but after massive industry-wide consolidation a few decades ago, his family started farming only corn and soybean. Since the early 1990s, Iowa’s pig population has increased by over 50 percent, but individual farms raising hogs dropped 80 percent. Livestock concentration has decimated individual farms and small communities across the Midwest, with farmers forced to either go big or get out.
After the hog bubble burst, Smith’s family found their land to be their most valuable asset and started farming more crops, just like other Iowan farmers. Iowa now produces the most corn of any state, and the United States is the global leader in corn production. Corn is used in myriad ways, from food sweetener to alcohol distillation. The nation’s massive corn export fuels both livestock and ethanol, which combined, account for 63 percent of the country’s agricultural exports.
Smith sees the future of corn production as fraught with drying soils and predicts a looming price drop for corn commodities. Current corn prices are higher than they have been in recent years with experts expecting this to last into the next few years, but growers are concerned that this year’s heatwave and drought have already damaged the corn yield, with an estimated one billion bushels less harvested in Iowa and Nebraska.
Smith said he also sees the nation’s shift away from a dependence on fossil fuels and ethanol as a losing battle for large corn producers in Iowa and he’s getting ready for life after ethanol. Right now, roughly half of the state’s corn production is used for ethanol.
“If that goes away, our model is going to look substantially different out here,” Smith said.
While the Stock Cropper technology is a small portion of Smith’s current operation, he said he wants to grow the technology to sell to other farmers. As corn becomes harder to raise, Smith imagines that a combination of selling the technology and the high-quality protein, those aforementioned hogs, and goats, in place of corn yields, will become his primary source of income.
Smith said he still wants to farm corn sustainably, both for the land and to combat future harsh conditions. Currently, Smith uses sustainable practices such as strip tillage, the process of cultivating the land with minimal disruption to the soil, and cover crops, planting vegetation that isn’t meant to be harvested to protect the soil from erosion and to improve conditions.
“Environmental and economic efficiencies are paramount on the farm and if you’re being environmentally efficient, you’re being economically efficient,” Smith said.
Corn, grains, and soybeans take up a large portion of the nation’s agricultural acreage and are annual crops. Each year, money is sunk into planting, growing, and harvesting these crops, only to do it all over the next year. To combat this cycle, a new grain is growing in portions of the Corn Belt.
Tim Crews director of ecological intensification at The Land Institute, harvests Kernza from an intercropping test plot where weed suppression is being studied.
The Land Institute
Kernza is domesticated wheatgrass that grows perennially and can be harvested for 10 to 20 years after being planted. It is often used as a substitute for grains in bread and beer production. This perennial plant is cropping up across the pockets of the Corn Belt and Midwest, from Minnesota to Colorado.
Tim Crews, chief scientist at the Land Institute, a nonprofit agricultural research group in Salina, Kansas, said there are no silver bullets to make current crop systems adapt to impending, destructive heat. Crews is part of a larger effort to shift away from annual crops and plant more perennials like Kernza through the Perennial Agriculture Project, to make future crops more resilient to heat.
Kernza, and other perennials like legumes and oilseeds, a cousin to sunflowers, are more drought and heat-resilient because of their root structures. These crops have large root systems and can both store and pull water from deeper in the ground, as opposed to corn, which has a shorter root system. Crews said that hundreds of years of planting crops with small root systems have made soil that can’t retain a lot of water, causing agricultural runoff. This runoff has polluted rivers and lakes across the region, but in Minnesota, Kernza is already being planted to prevent future Mississippi River pollution. Crews said the Land Institute’s work hopes to fix years worth of disruptive practices to prepare for an intense future.
“We became annual agriculturalists that created an ecosystem that does not exist hardly anywhere else on the planet and one that is so radically disrupted on an annual basis,” Crews said.
Perennials are also better for the environment because they don’t need heavy, gas-powered equipment to operate every year, and also require far less yearly fertilizer and nitrogen. “It takes a heck of a lot of human work or fossil fuels to knock those ecosystems back to square one every single year,” Crews said.
But, Kernza and perennials aren’t without their challenges. These crops are in the early stages of domestication in the region and need years to develop and potentially replace crops like corn. Additionally, Kernza roots may trap more water than corn and soybeans, but they need more water throughout the year as their growing period is longer than an annual crop. Crews said long-lasting droughts, such as ones lasting nine months or more, will complicate these crops, but perennials can thrive in heavy and recurrent rainfall events.
“If you have a deluge every two months, you’re good to go, and the annual systems are not going to work,” Crews said.
The Land Institute is working on developing new perennial grains that are bred with commonly used annual grains to make the transition from annual to perennial easier across the board. The Kansas research organization has been testing perennial breeds of wheatgrass, rice, sorghum, legumes, and more. These perennial crops will take decades to become planted in fields across the region but will allow the Corn Belt to adapt to a warmer climate and perhaps hang up its corn-focused moniker.
“There are so many other potential new crop species out there that could be far more drought intensive or heat tolerant than even any of the ones we’re working on right now,” Crews said.
This story is part of the Grist seriesFlood. Retreat. Repeat, an exploration of how communities are changing before, during, and after managed retreat.
Less than an hour’s drive from downtown Manhattan, on the eastern shore of Staten Island, lies the neighborhood of Oakwood Beach. A decade ago, it was a tight-knit working-class community of roughly 300 homes. Bungalows and beach houses lined its quiet streets, boasting ample backyards, easy water access, and a calmness rare in a city like New York. Today, the neighborhood is unrecognizable, a barren landscape of empty lots and flooded streets. Almost everyone has left.
When Superstorm Sandy ravaged New York on October 29, 2012, Oakwood Beach was one of the hardest hit areas. A 14-foot storm surge, among the highest recorded in the city, swept across the neighborhood. Entire houses were lifted from their foundations and carried across the surrounding marsh. Three people died.
Low-lying and encircled by wetlands, Oakwood Beach had always been prone to flooding, but the devastation caused by Sandy was unprecedented. Rather than rebuilding and waiting for the next storm, residents decided they would be better off elsewhere.
A child plays in Oakwood Beach in 2014, two years after Superstorm Sandy damaged the area. In the background, a construction crew helps demolish ruined homes, now vacant.
Andrew Burton / Getty Images
In the months that followed, they successfully lobbied the government to buy out their homes. The state of New York, using federal grants from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, agreed to pay pre-storm prices for the destroyed properties, demolish them, and never redevelop the land. Residents would be out of harm’s way in the event of another disaster and armed with money to resettle elsewhere. In time, nature would retake the area, creating a natural barrier against future storms. The strategy, called managed retreat, is what some experts say is the only long-term solution for waterfront areas like Oakwood Beach in the face of extreme weather and sea-level rise.
Buyouts in the neighborhood started in 2013, the first in a series of post-Sandy retreat programs on the eastern shore of Staten Island. The vast majority of residents chose to participate, but a few did not. Some simply didn’t want to leave their longtime homes. Others felt they couldn’t afford to relocate in New York’s expensive housing market for what the state was offering.
Today, a decade after Sandy, these holdouts reside in a neighborhood that is by design becoming more wild. The state acquired 308 properties during the buyouts and almost all of them have been demolished. Tall stands of vegetation from the surrounding marshland encroach into empty lots. Foxes, opossums, and snapping turtles have moved in. Deer and geese now outnumber the residents. Just 18 active households remain in the buyout zone.
The holdouts say they have been forgotten by the city. Streets are poorly maintained and basic services like trash collection are unreliable. The area is a frequent dumping site for people in the surrounding neighborhoods; old furniture, vehicle parts, and trash are strewn across some of the empty lots where homes once stood. Flooding is now a constant problem. Calling 311, the city’s line for non-emergency grievances, is a way of life in Oakwood Beach, but it yields few results.
“I pay my taxes,” said Christopher Camuso, 51, a resident who contacts city agencies about road conditions and flooding on a regular basis. Like his neighbors, he never imagined Oakwood Beach would become so neglected when he decided not to move. Residents were never told during the buyout process that as the area became less densely populated, it would be deprioritized by the city’s basic service providers. (City officials and the Governor’s Office of Storm Recovery contend they haven’t neglected the area.)
Chris Camuso cuts the ribbon on his home during a ceremony in 2014. The structure was fully restored with the help of various volunteer and government agencies after being destroyed by Superstorm Sandy. Now, nearly a decade later, Camuso says the neighborhood has been deprioritized after buyouts.
Andrew Burton / Getty Images
Chris Camuso, left, stands in front of his Oakwood Beach house in September 2022. Camuso says the neighborhood has been deprioritized after many of his neighbors took buyouts. Eight years earlier, right, volunteers helped him rebuild his house so he could move back in after Superstorm Sandy. Grist / Joaquim Salles, Andrew Burton / Getty Images
Grist / Joaquim Salles
It’s an issue that municipalities across the country may soon face as more governments turn to buyouts as a solution to a changing climate. The overwhelming majority of buyout programs are voluntary, and it is extremely rare for every individual in a community to relocate. Those left behind are finding themselves in an even more vulnerable position than they were before.
Lois Kelly, 71, has lived in Oakwood Beach since 1985. “It was a lovely neighborhood, like a little community,” she said. When Sandy hit, she and her husband were trapped in their one-story house as it filled with water. They got enough money from the insurance company to rebuild and chose not to relocate. Oakwood was their home, and they didn’t feel like starting over.
A decade later, just a few feet from Kelly’s doorstep, a large section of the street is flooded most of the year. Ducks and geese swim about as if on a lake. Residents say the street, Fox Lane, has been gradually sinking over the past decade. Cars cannot drive down it from end to end. The few that do often become stuck, including city vehicles like sanitation trucks. To leave her house, Kelly has to take a circuitous route through one of the parallel streets to avoid the water. The dry sections are cracked, uneven, and filled with large potholes.
Geese cross a pothole in the middle of an Oakwood Beach road
Grist / Joaquim Salles
“When you walk here, one minute you’re on something, the next minute you’re not,” she said. One morning in 2019, she was sweeping the street in front of her house when she tripped on uneven ground and fell face-first, sustaining a broken rib and a brain stem injury that affected her balance. She sued the city for negligence. The city argued Kelly was culpable in the accident and should have been aware of the risks, according to court records. The case was eventually settled for what Kelly deems “a low amount.” She has since taken to paying a contractor to fill the potholes in front of her house with packed gravel, a temporary low-cost solution. Still, she doesn’t want to move out. “Living here in the quiet is a beautiful thing,” she said.
Grist contacted the city’s Department of Transportation about road conditions in Oakwood Beach and was referred to the state, which still owns many of the lots in the neighborhood (the others have been transferred to the city and to the Staten Island Youth Soccer League). Paul Onyx Lozito, deputy executive director for Housing, Buyout, and Acquisition programs at the Governor’s Office of Storm Recovery, said in a statement that road and water infrastructure maintenance would be under the jurisdiction of New York City agencies.
On the opposite side of Fox Lane, only two houses remain. Camuso is among the holdouts who still had years left on their mortgages when Sandy struck. The state offered $239,000 for his house — the pre-storm value — but he chose not to take the offer. Nearly all of that money would have gone to the bank that owns his mortgage, he said, leaving almost nothing for a down payment on another home.
Signs on a vacant Oakwood Beach home warn away trespassers. Grist / Joaquim Salles
Before Sandy, Oakwood Beach was one of the more affordable neighborhoods in the borough, which made it hard to find comparable housing elsewhere when the state offered buyouts. That challenge has only gotten worse. The median sale price for a home in Staten Island was $417,000 in 2013. Today, that figure has increased to $685,000. “If I walk away from this, where am I going to go?” Camuso said. “I have no money.”
Camuso works for the city’s Department of Sanitation and says there were periods in which he had to take his own trash to work because the garbage truck often skipped his part of the neighborhood. His next-door neighbor, Joe Varo, says there have been three-week stretches when his garbage was not been collected.
A bag overflowing with trash sits near a graffitied wall on the shore of Oakwood Beach Grist / Joaquim Salles
In a statement to Grist, the Sanitation Department’s press secretary said crews “take seriously our mission to keep New York City streets clean, safe and healthy, and that includes every public street across the five boroughs.” She recommended residents call 311. “We will respond,” she said.
Anthony DeFrancisco and his family are the only residents left on Tarlton Street. “You ever watch those scary movies where the guy is all the way out in the woods by himself and the murderer says, ‘No one is ever going to hear you scream’?” he said. “It’s kind of like that here.”
DeFrancisco lives in a small house with his mother, sister, and four nephews. It’s raised a few feet above ground, yet it still filled with water chest-high on the night Sandy hit. Everything in it from appliances to family photos was lost, and the house had to be gutted.
Afterward, the family got insurance money to fix some of the damage. DeFrancisco was eager to relocate when the buyouts became a real possibility, even though he still had decades left on his mortgage. But the state’s offer deducted any insurance payments that were not accounted for, and in the wake of the storm, DeFrancisco had not kept receipts of how he had spent the insurance money. For years after Sandy he searched the city for an affordable mortgage that would accommodate his large household, without success.
Since Sandy, his problems with flooding have gotten exponentially worse. Before the storm, he says, his basement would flood once every couple of years. Now, he estimates it floods 10 times a year. As with all remaining residents on Oakwood Beach, rain forecasts are a constant source of anxiety.
“Every time they say thunderstorms, tornados, I get nervous because you never know,” said Connie Martinez, who lives on the street parallel to DeFrancisco’s. “I have everything prepared where I can grab and run.” Martinez moved to Oakwood Beach in 1973 when her eldest daughter was just a year old. She would go on to raise three children in the neighborhood. “I could stick my head out the window and see where they were, and I didn’t have to worry about them. It was perfect.”
Even though she loved Oakwood Beach, Martinez wanted to leave after Sandy. But her husband, who was an avid gardener, didn’t agree. Where else in New York City would he find space for tomato vines and peach trees? They rejected the state’s offer of $489,000 for their house.
Martinez’s husband died this past January, and she is ready to move on. The neighborhood has changed. “It’s lonesome,” she said. “I don’t go outside hardly anymore because I don’t like looking at the empty spaces where the houses were, where the people I knew were.” The government-run buyout program has officially ended, but she was recently able to sell the house on the private market for roughly the same amount she was offered in 2013.
“It’s time for me to start someplace fresh,” she said. She hopes to be settled in a new house by the end of the year, but the search has been difficult. The money doesn’t go as far as it did a decade ago, and Martinez is struggling to find a comparable home on Staten Island that suits her needs.
Unlike Martinez, most remaining residents of Oakwood Beach have no plans to leave. Some have learned to enjoy the isolation. If Oakwood Beach was a tranquil place before Sandy, now it’s akin to living in the countryside. The long-term prospects for the area, however, are dire. With worst-case scenario sea-level rise, the community could be permanently flooded in just over 30 years, according to the latest projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A long-delayed project to build a seawall along the eastern shore of Staten Island might buy the neighborhood a few more years beyond that, but it won’t protect it entirely. Climate scientists predict that the likelihood of Sandy-level storms will vastly increase. By 2100, major storm surges that used to occur in New York only once every 500 years may strike the city every 25 years.
Predictions like these are what make managed retreat a favored adaptation strategy by many climate resilience experts. “Long-term risk is gone. People are no longer in harm’s way of floodwaters,” said Michael McCann, an adaptation specialist at The Nature Conservancy*, which has worked with the federal government to return bought-out lots in Staten Island to nature. “With pretty much all other measures of flood adaptation, there’s going to be some residual risk if that structure were to fail.”
The latest New York City Comprehensive Waterfront Plan, a document put out by the city in 2021 that outlines a 10-year vision for the waterfront, recognizes that “climate change and sea-level rise will make some areas unsuitable for residential use,” and alludes to managed retreat with terms like “housing mobility” and “land adaptation.”
Which areas of New York City might be eligible for managed retreat programs in the future is anyone’s guess, but a growing body of research shows that adaptation strategies are applied differently depending on socioeconomic factors. Low-income neighborhoods are more likely to be bought out, and with that comes a loss of community. Neighborhoods where property values are high are more likely to receive coastal armoring and beach nourishment — even if those coastal armoring projects will be obsolete by the end of the century because of rising seas. And then there’s the issue of what happens to a bought-out neighborhood where a few residents are still holding on.
Signs deterring trespassers hang on two doors in Oakwood Beach. Grist / Joaquim Salles
“I don’t even think there’s that many precedents about what is the ethical and legal obligation for a municipality to continue to provide services, roads, sewer, electrical as communities are in transition,” said McCann. “It’s a dilemma that I think more and more municipalities are going to have to face.”
For the few remaining residents of Oakwood Beach, it’s a predicament they are already facing.
*Editor’s note: The Nature Conservancy is an advertiser with Grist. Advertisers play no role in Grist’s editorial decisions.
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Left Behind on Sep 21, 2022.
Hurricane Fiona slammed into Puerto Rico Sunday afternoon, causing widespread destruction, leaving 1.4 million residents without power and 700,000 without running water. The National Weather Service has warned that the Category 1 storm will cause “life-threatening and catastrophic flooding.” Indeed, the slow-moving hurricane had dropped more than 30 inches of rain on parts of Puerto Rico as of Monday, when it made landfall in the Dominican Republic. Only 100,000 Puerto Ricans have seen their power restored so far.
According to the Puerto Rican governor, Fiona dumped more rain on some parts of Puerto Rico than Hurricane Maria, which made landfall almost exactly five years ago and caused an estimated 4,645 deaths. As water levels rose in the Guaonica River, a temporary metal bridge, built after Hurricane Maria destroyed the previous one, floated away in the floodwaters. One man died during the power outage while trying to operate a generator, and Governor Pedro Pierluisi reported that the National Guard had rescued more than 1,000 stranded people.
Hurricane Fiona “catches the island at the very worst moment, right after an incomplete recovery from Hurricane Maria when the electric grid is very frail,” said Juan Declet-Barreto, a senior social scientist studying climate vulnerability at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit advocacy group. “It’s just a very, very difficult situation.”
Slow-moving hurricanes like Fiona are expected to become more common in a warming world. Climate researchers have found that once storms make landfall, they are now moving more slowly and taking longer to weaken compared to previous years, thereby increasing the amount of rainfall they’re likely to produce. While it’s too early to know the exact role that climate change played in Hurricane Fiona’s intensity, Declet-Barreto said that global warming is creating conditions that allow for the rapid intensification of hurricanes, lots of rain, and heavy winds.
Puerto Rico was supposed to be better prepared for the next major storm after Maria. In the aftermath of the devastating 2017 hurricane, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, allocated $25 billion to help the island’s municipalities rebuild parks, community centers, and other much-needed infrastructure. But an Associated Press review of government data found that just 21 percent of more than 5,500 government-funded recovery projects have been completed five years later. Of the island’s 78 municipalities, seven reported that not a single project had broken ground. More than 3,600 Puerto Rican homes were still covered with blue tarps distributed half a decade ago.
The island has also spent massive amounts of money on fixing its electrical grid, which proved vulnerable during both storms. Until last year, the grid fell entirely under the purview of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, or PREPA, a public utility owned by the Puerto Rican government. Laden with $9 billion in debt, the utility filed for bankruptcy just months before Hurricane Maria made landfall. In the midst of restructuring its debt, the utility struck a deal to contract electricity transmission and distribution to LUMA Energy, a private company. LUMA officially took over operations in June 2021, but Puerto Ricans have seen few improvements in power reliability since then. In fact, blackouts have persisted over the last year, causing Puerto Ricans to take to the streets demanding that LUMA’s 15-year contract be canceled. One particularly terrible outage occurred in April when a fire at the island’s main power plant caused blackouts for half a million people. The power was out for days, leading the education department to cancel classes.
After LUMA took over last year, it did not honor the existing collective bargaining contracts with a local union. As a result, the company lost many experienced workers with decades of institutional knowledge. “LUMA had to start from zero building a workforce and still to this point, does not have sufficient people to work the grid,” said Adi Martínez-Román, the director of operations at the University of Puerto Rico’s Resilience Law Center. LUMA and PREPA have failed to build a climate-resilient grid and have instead been submitting project plans that build back infrastructure to pre-Maria standards, she said.
Martínez-Román pointed out that a 10-year PREPA plan to use FEMA funds for rebuilding the grid includes construction of natural gas plants and extends the island’s reliance on fossil fuels. As an island, Puerto Rico is reliant on ships to ferry fossil fuels to its power plants, which makes it unreliable during hurricanes and vulnerable to oil and gas price fluctuations. Puerto Ricans already pay double the U.S. national average cost for power.
“We are an island that has sun almost all the time,” she said. “That’s a missed once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to use federal funds for a decentralized rooftop-solar-based grid.”
PREPA has also been plagued by corruption scandals and allegations that it favors private U.S.-based companies over local contractors. In the aftermath of the hurricane, PREPA awarded a $300-million contract to Whitefish Energy Holdings, a Montana-based company, to help repair the island’s electrical grid. The company went on to bill PREPA for linemen at a rate that was almost 17 times the average salary for local workers. A congressional investigation into PREPA’s contracts followed, and the head of PREPA eventually stepped down in the aftermath. According to one 2020 investigation, the utility continues to disproportionately award contracts to companies based in the U.S. mainland. Reporters found that, of the $4.4 billion in contracts that PREPA had awarded since Hurricane Maria, $3.7 billion went to U.S. companies.
At a press conference on Sunday, Governor Pierluisi promised that the power outage will not last as long as the one after Hurricane Maria, which left some communities without electricity for almost a year. The grid will be restored in several days or weeks, he said.
“LUMA brigades continue to work to stabilize the electricity grid,” said Abner Gomez, LUMA’s director of public safety. “We will continue to work nonstop until service is restored to all customers and the power grid is fully restored.”
Climate Week kicks off this week in New York City as more than 150 world leaders gather for the U.N. General Assembly and as Hurricane Fiona rips through Puerto Rico, Typhoon Nanmadol slams southern Japan, and Typhoon Merbok floods parts of western Alaska. We speak to climate scientist Michael Mann about how climate change has changed the pattern of tropical storms, and what needs to happen to address the crisis. He says rising global temperatures have worsened the effects of storms like these, and more aggressive climate legislation from Congress is needed. “We are experiencing devastating consequences of past climate inaction, and it really drives home the importance of taking action now,” says Mann.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMYGOODMAN:This isDemocracy Now!, democracynow.org,The War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman.
You know, today marks the start of Climate Week here in New York City, where more than 150 world leaders are gathering for the United Nations General Assembly. Some of them are coming directly from the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, including President Biden, set to address the forum Wednesday, a day later than usual. On Thursday, the Barbados prime minister is set to speak about her proposal for a new financial settlement for vulnerable countries struggling to pay off debt from climate disasters. Governments are also facing pressure to address their pledges to end fossil fuel subsidies amid soaring energy bills.
Ahead of the 77th session of the U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres had this warning for world leaders.
SECRETARY–GENERALANTÓNIOGUTERRES:Climate change seems to have moved out of the priorities for many decision makers around the world, and this is a suicide. We see emissions growing, and we see fossil fuels become fashionable again, when we know that fossil fuels are the main responsible for the progressive war against nature that we have been waging in our history.
AMYGOODMAN:Activists have also planned a week of actions at this year’s Climate Week, which comes after a summer of heat waves and floods around the world. As Pakistan reels from one of the worst climate disasters in history, a third of Pakistan is underwater. Hurricane season is again underway, with Hurricane Fiona battering Puerto Rico, as just described, as well as Typhoon Merbok, which flooded parts of western Alaska in what some are calling the state’s worst storm in half a century. Meanwhile, 9 million people have been ordered to evacuate their homes in Japan, where one of the largest typhoons ever to hit the country made landfall Sunday night.
To talk about all of this, we’re joined by Michael Mann, the presidential distinguished professor and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media. He’s now at the University of Pennsylvania. His most recent book,The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet.
Professor Mann, welcome back toDemocracy Now!I mean, you just heard the descriptions of Puerto Rico. We’ve got Japan, we’ve got Alaska, Pakistan a third underwater. Your response? What connects all of this? Explain what’s happening.
MICHAELMANN:Yeah, Amy, I would say it’s good to be with you, but we rarely have good news to discuss. And with these catastrophic events that we see playing out now in real time, we are witnessing the devastating consequences of climate change now. This isn’t 10 years into the future. It’s not way off in the Arctic. It’s where we live now. We are experiencing devastating consequences of past climate inaction, and it really drives home the importance of taking action now.
You know, the physics isn’t that difficult here. You make the planet warmer, you’re going to get more heat. You’re going to get more intense and more frequent heat waves, like we’ve seen this summer and every summer in recent history. You make the atmosphere warmer, it holds moisture, more moisture. So you get those flooding events. You get the sort of devastating flooding that we’re seeing right now with these landfalling hurricanes. You make the soils warmer in the summer, you dry them out more, so you get more drought. And what we see out west, the heat, the drought combine to give us those devastating wildfires. And so, this isn’t rocket science. The physics here is very basic, and it tells us that we’re reaping what we’ve sown. We’re now experiencing devastating climate impacts.
AMYGOODMAN:So, can you talk about right now what you feel needs to be done? And the significance of — I mean, you are a scientist. You were at Penn State, now you’re at University of Pennsylvania. The way climate science was disparaged — now, I think, so much more embraced all over the world. But what has to happen at this moment, in the midst of Climate Week here in New York and right before the U.N.COP? What actually do countries have to commit to?
MICHAELMANN:Yeah, you know, the worst thing that can happen to you as a climate scientist is that your predictions come true. And that’s what we’re seeing happen. And so, you know, those who used to deny the reality of climate change, they can’t anymore, because, of course, we are all now seeing the impacts with our own two eyes. That doesn’t mean they’ve given up. Polluters are still using every tool in the book — and that’s what my book is about — to try to prevent the actions that are necessary.
So, what do we need to do? Look, we need to recognize we’ve made some real progress here. the Inflation Reduction Act here in the United States is by far the most comprehensive climate legislation that’s ever passed the U.S. Congress. It starts to get us on the path that we need to be on to limit warming below a catastrophic 3 degrees Fahrenheit, where we see the worst consequences of climate change. It starts to get us on that path, but it doesn’t quite get there, and so we need to go further. We need to reduce carbon emissions here in the United States by at least 50% by 2030. TheIRA, Inflation Reduction Act, maybe gets us about 40%. So we’ve got to go further than that.
And look, right now the gatekeeper for climate legislation in the United States is a coal state Democrat, Joe Manchin. Only climate legislation that’s approved by him can pass under these current sort of — in our current politics. That’s why voters need to turn out in droves in these midterm elections, so we can get a large enough majority of climate advocates, Democrats and others who support climate action, in Congress, so that we can go further, so we can get more aggressive climate legislation passed, that will put a price on carbon, that will provide more subsidies for renewable energy, that will block new fossil fuel infrastructure. No less than theIEA, no cheerleader for renewable energy, has said that if we are to keep warming below that catastrophic level of 3 degrees Fahrenheit, there can be no new fossil fuel infrastructure. That means we can’t continue to fund new pipeline projects as we’re currently doing here in the United States.
AMYGOODMAN:Why is a Category 2 hurricane, like Fiona, that just swept through Puerto Rico — we don’t even know the extent of the damage as it moves on to the Dominican Republic — causing so much damage in Puerto Rico compared to a Category 5 Hurricane Maria? Also, why — what’s the significance of it appearing so late in hurricane season? And then, also, why the hurricane that has now — the typhoon that has hit Japan is considered like the worst in half a century? What is causing this?
MICHAELMANN:Yeah, so, again, it’s pretty basic. The warming of the oceans, the planet’s warming up, the oceans are warming up, that means there’s more energy. There’s more evaporation from the oceans. And it’s that evaporation that provides the energy to intensify those storms, and it’s what provides them all of that moisture. And so we get stronger, more intense storms, and they contain a lot more rainfall in them, so we get much more flooding. And that’s what we’re seeing over time.
Now, the vagaries of any particular storm — we can’t say this storm wouldn’t have happened if not for climate change. What we can say is this particular storm was stronger, it was wetter, and it was more damaging than it would have been, because of climate change. We can make that direct link.
AMYGOODMAN:And the comparison of the Atlantic storms to the Pacific storms?
MICHAELMANN:Yeah, this is a global — you know, the physics here don’t respect individual ocean basins. Everywhere you go, warmer oceans mean more intense hurricanes or typhoons, as we call them over there, and worse flooding with these storms. And that’s really what we’re seeing here. And, you know, this is really just sort of the tip of the iceberg. The good news is we can prevent this all from getting worse if we bring those carbon emissions down, you know, as I said, 50% within the next decade, down to zero by mid-century. We can prevent further warming of the planet and worsening of these effects. But if we continue to burn fossil fuels, all of this only gets worse. This only becomes a glimpse of what is to come.
AMYGOODMAN:Michael Mann, we thank you for being with us, presidential distinguished professor and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. His most recent book,The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet.
Next up, the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. We’ll speak with Kehinde Andrews, the U.K.’s first professor of Black studies, author ofThe New Age of Empire: How Racism and Colonialism Still Rule the World. Stay with us.
This story is part of the Grist series Flood. Retreat. Repeat, an exploration of how communities are changing before, during, and after managed retreat.
Dolores Mendoza lived in the Houston neighborhood of Allen Field for most of her life. Once, when her daughter was young, she moved to a north Houston suburb not far away, so her daughter could grow up with safer streets and better schools. “I hated it,” she said flatly, remembering her attempt to leave. “I didn’t know my neighbors — there are 100 houses and you don’t know anyone.” She came back within a year.
In this corner of unincorporated Harris County, 13 of her closest neighbors are also her family: her mom, aunts and uncles, cousins, siblings. Her parents and grandparents both met in the neighborhood, got married, and stayed here. “I have my maternal family on one street, and my paternal family on the other,” she said, laughing. Her memories of growing up include bike rides through the streets from one friend or cousin’s house to the next.
But her upbringing was also punctuated by intense floods that put her neighborhood underwater over and over again — to name a few, tropical Storm Allison in 2001, Harvey in 2017, and Imelda in 2019. When it flooded during Mendoza’s childhood, the neighborhood kids would put on floaties and swim through the knee-deep or occasionally waist-high waters. Her kids have grown up with the same memories.
Dolores Mendoza visits the lot where her Allen Field home used to stand. After her family took a buyout, the structure was demolished.
Grist/Jacque Jackson
The community sits behind Greens Bayou, a small river that meanders through northern Harris County before emptying into the Houston Ship Channel. Overgrown grassy ditches bursting with yellow wildflowers line Darjean Street, the small road that Mendoza grew up on. The channels are meant to funnel flood waters away when it rains and the river overflows. But more often than not, when a storm comes, Allen Field still floods.
With each storm, families in Allen Field rebuild homes and raise them higher off the ground to avoid floodwaters in the next one. Despite the repeated disasters, most families haven’t left the neighborhood. They know exactly who to call for help during a crisis, and who to trust afterwards as they put their lives back together.
16%
proportion of homes in Harris County damaged when Greens Bayou flooded during Hurricane Harvey
But in recent years, flooding in Allen Field has gotten worse and more dangerous as climate change feeds stronger storms and new developments further upstream reshape the area’s floodplains. Mendoza remembers vividly when Hurricane Harvey dumped more than 60 inches of rain on the region in 2017. That was the first time that the floodwaters were chest deep. “You couldn’t even see the street signs,” she said. Her home, which had been elevated 6 feet above ground after Allison, took on several inches of water and the roof started to leak.
For decades, Harris County, home to Houston and its surrounding towns, had a buyout program operating in Allen Field and other neighborhoods in the northeast pocket of the city: Residents could sell their houses to the county at market value and get assistance to move out of the floodplain. The house would be demolished and the lot underneath it restored as a greenspace that could absorb flood waters.
Grass covers the lot where Dolores Mendoza’s home used to stand. Grist/Jacque Jackson
“A lot of areas were developed within the county that should never have been developed — areas that we now know are several feet deep in the floodplain,” said James Wade, Harris County Flood Control District’s property acquisitions manager.
Because the buyout was funded through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, it had to be voluntary. The county couldn’t force anyone to move if they didn’t want to. Between Hurricane Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017, only a handful of homeowners sold their properties. Year after year, most families chose to stay and rebuild.
“I just want to make sure [the county] is going to take care of everybody.”
Dolores Mendoza
But in 2020, the county chose to make the buyout in Allen Field — and six other neighborhoods — mandatory. The county had just gotten federal relief dollars for Hurricane Harvey from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD, giving it a bigger budget to execute buyouts. “These particular communities … have flooded about 12 times in the past 40 years,” said Christy Lambright, the director of Disaster Recovery & Resiliency Planning at the Harris County Community Services Department. “We couldn’t build anything that would save these communities. There’s no detention pond we can build, no widening of the bayou that we can do — we need that land to save the neighboring neighborhoods.”
But the decision has left residents of Allen Field and several other Harris County areas scrambling to navigate a complex buyout process while also trying to preserve and protect the community that they’ve lived in for generations.
Dolores Mendoza (left) talks with her sister, who is in the process of moving out of Allen Field. Other members of the family secure large items on the trailer to take to store at another family member’s home. Grist/Jacque Jackson
Last December, Mendoza was among the first in the neighborhood to move out through the mandatory buyout. It took nearly two years for the sale of her house to go through. The county paid out the sale price of her new home in Kingwood, 15 miles away, but she had to unexpectedly pay thousands of dollars in closing fees out of pocket. Her property taxes and homeowner association fees are also seven times higher now.
Mendoza counts herself lucky that she can afford those extra expenses on her salary as a credit controller. But she worries that some of her neighbors — the older folks, the ones who don’t speak English fluently, or those on fixed incomes — will have a harder time going through the process. Others are losing not only their homes, but their businesses as well — and don’t feel that they’re being fairly compensated. And, of course, there are some losses that can’t be quantified: Decades-long friendships and relationships will change as neighbors move further away from each other.
“I just want to make sure [the county] is going to take care of everybody,” Mendoza said. Early on, she remembers telling the county officials handling her case, “Use me as your guinea pig and figure this shit out before you go deal with everyone else.”
The federal government has been subsidizing flood control buyouts in some form since as far back as the 1930s and 40s. By the mid 1990s, Congress moved the program under FEMA, and a state and federal partnership model funds the program nationwide.
Today, Harris County is the largest recipient of federal dollars for buyouts. According to a report from Rice Univeristy’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research, between 1985 and 2017, the county spent $342 million to acquire over 3,100 properties. The money was allocated from federal agencies, like FEMA, HUD, and the Army Corps of Engineers, as well as local funding sources.
“The program really started as a rural program to help farmers whose farms kept flooding,” said Jim Elliott, a researcher at Rice University who focuses on inequities in disasters and recovery. “There’s been a sort of policy creep as the [program] has moved into cities,”
Dogs bark at the gate of the home of Irene Torres, Dolores’s mother. The house was originally owned by Dolores’ great-great-grandmother and has passed through other members the family over the years. Now, it has a hole in the roof and is pending buyout. Grist/Jacque Jackson
Buyouts are now a major climate adaptation policy to get people out of harm’s way. FEMA estimates that nearly 13 million Americans live within a floodplain — though some scientists place that number closer to 40 million using more up-to-date flood maps. As climate change makes extreme weather more severe and more frequent, buying out these homes should reduce the risks that people face, and lower the costs of repetitive payouts from insurance companies, including the National Flood Insurance Program, which is billions of dollars in debt. The program has paid out more money to residents in Harris County than any other area in the country.
But such programs often deepen existing social inequalities. In 2021, Elliot and a team of researchers found that wealthier, whiter neighborhoods were able to maintain social ties and social capital after a buyout. Households resettled closer to each other and the amenities they enjoyed. But lower income areas saw the opposite effect: They resettled further from each other, and the benefits of their social ties were weakened.
The only readable sign on Darjean Street leans toward a grass-filled ditch in the middle of the community.
Grist/Jacque Jackson
Antonio Medal stands in front of his Allen Field home, which originally belonged to his father. Most of his family is now scattered due to the county’s mandatory buyout program.
Grist/Jacque Jackson
Antonio Medal stands in front of his Allen Field home, which originally belonged to his father. Most of his family is now scattered due to the county’s mandatory buyout program. Grist/Jacque Jackson
Antonio Medal walks up the steps to his home in Allen Field. He says many parts of the home need repair
Grist/Jacque Jackson
“Flood control experts measure success by how many homes they buy out. People in a community measure success by how much they’re able to maintain the community,” Elliott said. “So, who has to give up that social value to adjust to climate change?” In Harris County, there’s evidence that, over and over again, it is low-income communities and communities of color.
Mendoza’s house cost the county about $60,000 to purchase. It has about the same flood potential as houses in the wealthier, whiter Fall Creek neighborhood of Humble, also located along Greens Bayou, that cost more than 10 times as much. But only Allen Field, which is majority Black and Latino, is being forced to participate in a buyout.
Flowers and shrubs dot the large, immaculately manicured lawn in front of a home in the quiet Falls Creek neighborhood on Greens Bayou.
Grist/Jacque Jackson
When asked about these inequities — historical and present — and the flood control district’s responsibility to address them, Wade, from the Harris County Flood Control District, said that the agency has not unfairly targeted low-income neighborhoods for buyouts. HUD requires that certain grants benefit low- to moderate-income areas.
“From the flood control perspective, we’re just interested in relocating people out of harm’s way and getting them to higher ground — regardless of race, ethnicity, and income level,” Wade said. “I know in Texas, we’re very big on property rights. But at what point does the government become negligible for allowing folks to live in harm’s way?” Lambright echoes that thought. “We did not enter into this thinking it was going to be an easy task,” she said. “This river is never going to stop flowing. It’s going to take out the road, it’s going to be detrimental to homes. There was no way that Harris County could ignore this issue.” And despite the influx of funding from HUD post-Harvey, it still falls short. There are far more communities in harm’s way that haven’t been given a path out of the floodplain at all.
Some residents in Allen Field welcome the buyout. Lena Apodaca has lived in the neighborhood for four decades. Her husband passed away in 2019 and since then she’s lived alone in the house he left her. “I’m not fighting it,” she said. “I don’t want to go through another flood by myself.” Apodaca describes herself as old-school: She doesn’t have a smartphone or a computer. She’s filled out all the paperwork the county needs to approve the sale by hand, and she’s been waiting ever since. “Last year, that was the last time I heard from them,” she said. “I tried calling them, no answer, no nothing.”
In February 2021, a record-breaking winter cold snap gripped Texas; as temperatures dipped into the single digits, millions of Texans lost power. In Lena’s house, the pipes froze and burst, and she didn’t have running water. The county has cautioned against making repairs to homes because those costs won’t be reflected in the sale price. But Apodaca’s sons helped her replace the pipes anyway — if they hadn’t, she would have been without running water for more than a year now. Others have decided it’s not worth sinking more money into their houses. So they’ve lived without kitchens or a spare bathroom since the freeze. At Mendoza’s mother’s house, an entire back room seeps every time it rains, the smell of mildew permeating the walls.
Clothes, food containers, and a tattered stuffed rabbit lie on the ground in front of an empty house in Allen Field. Grist/Jacque Jackson
But other Allen Field residents contend that a buyout program shouldn’t have been their only option. Their neighborhood has long been neglected for infrastructure improvements. Property values are far lower to begin with precisely because they don’t benefit from public services: There were no street lights in Allen Field until a few years ago. The ditches that the neighborhood relies on for flood control are inadequate for today’s climate change-fueled storms, and it’s difficult to get anyone from the county to maintain them so that they work properly during even a light rainfall. Mendoza can’t recall a time when anyone from the outside came to save them from rising flood waters. “We take care of ourselves here,” she said. “[First responders] don’t come out to this area.”
Of the seven areas that are facing a mandatory buyout in the county, six are located along Greens Bayou, which caused some of the worst flooding in Harris County during Hurricane Harvey. The watershed and its tributaries encompass more than 200 square miles across north Houston, an area that’s home to some 600,000 people. According to a 2018 report from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Greens Bayou caused 24,000 homes to flood during Hurricane Harvey, roughly 16 percent of all the homes damaged in the county by the storm.
Of the seven areas that are facing a mandatory buyout in the county, all but Highland Shores are located along Greens Bayou. Grist
But the city and state have largely avoided funding flood control projects along the bayou because, according to the same report, a high concentration of low-income neighborhoods with low property values border it, making it difficult to justify the cost using federal standards.
“The property value measure is inherently inequitable, and frankly racist,” said Maddie Sloan, the disaster recovery director at Texas Appleseed, a nonprofit advocacy group. “Many of these communities are also historical communities of color that people have a deep investment in, and it can feel like an attack on those communities.”
In 2018, Harris County passed a $2.5 billion bond with the promise of righting some of the inequities in Harris County’s flood infrastructure. The money should have finally brought projects to Greens Bayou and its tributaries, but that never materialized either.
By all means, Mendoza said, the new house she and her kids live in now is nicer than her home in Allen Field — and it’s not in the floodplain. “It’s quiet,” she said. “It’s a nice neighborhood. I have a huge house, a pool, all that. But it’s not the same. I’m a single mom, and it takes a village to raise kids, and I don’t have that anymore. It’s gone.”
Dolores Mendoza uses her phone to show a photo of one of her family’s final Christmases together back when they were all living in the same neighborhood. Now, they are all in the process of relocating. Grist/Jacque Jackson
In a financial sense, the program worked for her. “I’m in my mid-30s, I can use this as an investment and eventually move out to the country like I’ve always wanted to.” But for some of her neighbors, she’s not sure that they’ll ever be made whole after losing the communities that they’ve lived in for their whole lives. Her 80-year-old neighbor, for example, has always been taken care of even though she lives alone. Neighbors drive her to the doctors, drop off meals and pet food, and even drive her out to convenience stores to buy scratch-offs. There’s no guarantee that she’ll be able to stay close to her support system.
Many of those neighbors have scattered now — some, like Mendoza and her sister, found houses 10 minutes away; others are 35 minutes away, preferring not to resettle in a subdivision with homeowner association mandates after decades of living in unincorporated county land, where there are no strict rules.
Former Allen Field residents Raquelle (top), Irene, Samuel (left), and Fabian load their final belongings as part of a buyout. Raquelle’s new home is across town, away from both of her sisters. Before the buyout, the sisters were neighbors. Grist/Jacque Jackson
Over the past two years, Mendoza has become the neighborhood’s unofficial spokesperson. She’s written op-eds in the local paper and joined a community committee that’s been advising the county on how to provide support to Allen Field residents through the long, technical process. Neighbors and relatives are used to seeing Mendoza walk up and down the streets with reporters, pointing out which homes have been sold already, which ones are still in need of repairs from Winter Storm Uri, and the vandalism of recently vacated properties. Other residents are hesitant to speak publicly, worried about getting in trouble with the caseworkers handling their property sales.
There’s a joke around the neighborhood that the county moved Mendoza out first so that they wouldn’t have to deal with her anymore. But she has no intention of going anywhere. “They completely tore apart our village,” Mendoza said. “They’ll be hearing from me till the last resident moves out.”
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Torn apart on Sep 19, 2022.
This summer, four times more rain than normal fell on southern Pakistan, causing widespread flooding that left a third of the country underwater. The scale is hard to wrap your head around: The deluge has affected 33 million people — 15 percent of Pakistan’s population — and has turned villages into isolated islands. The death toll stands at 1,500.
It sounds like just the kind of unfathomable disaster that wouldn’t have happened without climate change. According to new research released on Thursday, the hotter planet played a role by making the flooding worse — though it wasn’t the only factor.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group found that climate change likely intensified the overall rain by 50 percent this summer. At the monsoon’s worst — the heaviest five-day period in the southern provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh — it’s believed that global warming increased the total rain by up to 75 percent.
This summer (call it danger season) has been filled with drought, fires, floods, and other unusual extreme weather. Researchers have been drawing more and more connections to the overheating planet. The heat wave that sizzled across India and Pakistan this spring, bringing temperatures above 100 degrees F for days, was made 30 times more likely because of greenhouse gas emissions, according to World Weather Attribution. The group also found that the record-breaking July heat wave in the United Kingdom would have been “extremely unlikely” without climate change.
Earlier events primed Pakistan for devastation, some of them related to the changing climate. For example, the conditions for a wetter-than-usual monsoon season were amped up by hotter-than-usual weather, because warmer air can hold more moisture.
But a humanitarian crisis isn’t created by weather alone — it’s also created by structural failures to protect people living in harm’s way. The research found that the devastation in Pakistan was driven largely by the country’s outdated river management system and how close people lived to floodplains. A high poverty rate, along with political and economic instability, made Pakistan further unprepared to deal with the magnitude of this year’s monsoon rains. The average income is just over $1,500 per person, while it’s closer to $2,300 in neighboring India, according to data from the World Bank.
“It is important to remember that this disaster was the result of a vulnerability that was constructed over many, many years and shouldn’t be seen historically as the outcome of one sporadic sudden event,” Ayesha Siddiqi, a University of Cambridge researcher involved in the analysis, told the Washington Post.
Scientists managed to complete this research while the catastrophe in Pakistan was still unfolding. By comparing established models of a world without climate change to the real world, they were able to release a rapid-fire analysis of global warming’s role. The thinking behind this kind of swift attribution study, which isn’t subject to the usual rigorous and slow-moving peer review process, is that it can help people see climate change not as a future threat, but as a present danger.
Studying the disaster is one thing; dealing with its fallout is another. Though the floodwaters in Pakistan are beginning to recede, it could be months until the country fully dries up. The rains are estimated to have caused $10 billion worth of damage, leaving Pakistan, a country that emits less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions but is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, dealing with the consequences of mainly wealthier countries’ emissions.
After months of near-total tranquility, the Atlantic Ocean has finally seen its first two hurricanes of the 2022 season. Hurricanes Danielle and Earl, which both developed hurricane-force winds over the past weekend, are now spinning northward through the ocean, where they are expected to dissolve in cold water before making direct landfall.
Despite this recent flurry of activity, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is still one of the quietest on record — and it seems likely to stay that way. This summer has seen historic floods, brutal heat waves, and rampaging wildfires strike the United States. So far, however, there have been no major hurricanes like those that have devastated the U.S. over the past few years. Although meteorologists are tracking a few more storm systems that may develop over the coming weeks, none is expected to present an imminent threat to residents of the Caribbean or American mainland.
Before Danielle and Earl, just three tropical storms had formed in the Atlantic this year, all of them in June. Just one of them, Alex, caused any noticeable effects on land, leading to a day of flash flooding in Miami, Florida. Tropical storm activity overall is just around 10 percent of its average so far this year, and if the trend continues 2022 will end up being the fourth quietest year in the last century. With the traditional peak of hurricane season coming up on September 10, it’s looking more and more probable that the year will finish well below average.
“It’s super weird,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, one of the leading hurricane forecasting institutions. “If you just showed me, ‘here’s what the winds look like,’ I would have said we should have had a couple of hurricanes, probably at least one major hurricane — conditions are fairly conducive, and yet, nothing is going.”
The dearth of tropical storm formation has come as a surprise to many meteorologists, especially given that every major hurricane model predicted an eventful season this year. Experts are still trying to figure out what’s causing the reprieve. If anything, the symptoms still point toward a busier season: The world is experiencing a La Niña climate pattern, wherein cold Pacific Ocean temperatures reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, which should make it easier for storms to grow. And the Atlantic surface has been fairly hot for most of the year, with temperatures that are more than high enough to fuel storm development. It’s just that very few storms have emerged.
The most likely explanation for the dry spell, said Klotzbach, is a large patch of dry air that has hung to the west of Africa for much of the past month, reducing overall moisture above the oceans. He added that this dry period may have been caused by the historic heat wave in Europe earlier this summer. The high-pressure system that burned Europe also made the tropics cooler, and the temperature differential between the regions allowed dry air to flow into the tropics, stymying the moisture buildup necessary for major storms.
The reprieve may continue in the coming years. Meteorologists project that the current multi-year La Niña may end as soon as this winter, shifting back toward an El Niño pattern that will kick up winds in the Atlantic and suppress many storms. Climate change actually has the potential to make things even quieter: according to recent research, a warming world may reduce the temperature differential between the ocean and the atmosphere above it, thus reducing the hot air movements that lead to tropical cyclones.
But though climate change has the potential to suppress storm activity, resulting in overall quieter hurricane seasons, it also provides more fuel for the storms that do form, because ocean temperatures in general are only getting warmer. Increasingly, once a cyclone hits the extra-warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, it experiences what’s known as “rapid intensification” — ballooning in size, picking up speed, and reaching maximum strength before it hits land. This process often happens too fast for residents in these storms’ paths to prepare.
“By this time of year, the temperatures are warm enough for anything to form. And the warmer and warmer it gets, the more explosive something can be,” said Brian McNoldy, a research associate at the University of Miami who studies hurricanes. “Anytime we have a rapidly intensifying storm on its way to making landfall, we start to realize that evacuations are just impractical. It’s really impossible to get large numbers of people out of harm’s way when you have these short-fuse storms.”
We’ve seen several examples of this phenomenon in recent years, including 2021’s Hurricane Ida, which grew from a messy tropical formation to a high Category 4 hurricane in the span of about three days. Computer models were adept at predicting the storm’s path, but the cyclone grew so fast as to make it impossible to evacuate coastal Louisiana cities like New Orleans and Baton Rouge in a timely manner. The results were catastrophic: Tens of thousands of New Orleanians were stuck in the city without power for days, and residents of the nearby River Parishes had to wait out dangerous flooding when levees near their homes collapsed.
These dynamics remain constant whether the overall hurricane season is active or relatively quiet, which is why McNoldy likes to say that “all it takes is one.”
“We might have even not as many cyclones, but of the ones that form could become even stronger than they would have before,” he told Grist.
Klotzbach said that the relationship between climate change and tropical storms is still murky: We only have about a hundred years of good data on hurricanes, which makes it hard to identify long-term trends. Even so, the lesson of the past few years is clear. The threat of climate-enhanced hurricanes is not that they’re guaranteed to happen every summer, like wildfires, but that the worst of them can happen at any moment, with little notice.
Over 20 million households in the US have unpaid electricity bills. But it’s not just inflation that is putting them behind; it’s also our increasingly extreme weather.
Blistering temperatures over the summer led many to keep their air conditioning on longer than they might normally. And now that winter is on the horizon, the cost of heating adds to the stress.
“There’s no relief in sight,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, or NEADA, which monitors the effectiveness of federal utility assistance programs. “All signs point to another expensive winter.”
And for many of the nation’s struggling families, this means dealing with service shut-offs, deciding whether to “heat or eat,” or continuing to incur debts to utilities that will eventually have to be paid.
Black, Latino, and Indigenous households are the most at risk of having their power cut off. According to a survey on electricity utility equity conducted by Indiana University’s Energy Justice Lab in January, nearly 40 percent of Hispanic households and more than 26 percent of Black households said that they were unable to pay their electricity bill. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic households and 20 percent of Black households received a disconnection notice, and more than 18 percent of Hispanic households and 13 percent of Black households had their energy service disconnected. Hispanic households were 80 percent more likely than White households to have their service disconnected by a utility provider.
A separate study on water equity by the Pacific Institute found that Black households that receive a utility shutoff warning notice are more than twice as likely to be disconnected as White households receiving a notice. Black households, while making up approximately 14 percent of the nation’s housing stock, nonetheless represented 29 percent of the total disconnections. Native American households were disconnected at the highest rate, at 4 percent, though they only make up 1 percent of the national population.
The impacts of redlining and disinvestment mean that Black and Latino neighborhoods are more likely to have aging and low quality infrastructure, and are more likely to forgo heating or cooling their homes in order to save money for food.
Nearly one in three Americans faced extreme heat advisories and a surge of heat-related emergencies over the summer, forcing many to seek respite outside their homes. Sacramento, California’s capital, opened “cooling centers” in community centers and schools for residents as summer temperatures reached over 95 degrees for days on end. And in the Midwest and East Coast, officials and communities struggled to keep public swimming pools open amid a national lifeguard shortage.
Numerous factors, including inflation, higher energy costs due to the war in Ukraine, and harsher winter weather, have contributed to the increase in unpaid electricity bills. And August utility bills are expected to reflect a dramatic increase in cooling costs.
Two federal programs are aimed at protecting energy insecure populations. The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, known as LIHEAP, helps low-income households pay their utility bills, while the Weatherization Assistance Program helps households become more energy efficient, thereby reducing the monthly costs. But the former is chronically underfunded and only serves 20 percent of eligible households.
Beginning in the first months of the pandemic, 34 states offered their residents protection against utility shut-offs; all had expired by the end of 2021.
While 41 states have protections against utility shut-offs during extreme cold weather events, only 18 states have protections against utility shut-offs during a heat wave. Although hot states like Arizona have developed a permanent policy against summer shut-offs after a well-publicized death of an elderly resident in 2018, other hot states like Florida have no heat protections at all.
With the limited scope of nationwide utility assistance, there is growing concern that the millions of households who are behind on their electricity bills will have their utility services cut even as extreme weather conditions become the norm.
Some experts and advocates argue that the most immediate policy that can protect households vulnerable to mounting utility debt is to stop shut-offs entirely during the summer if they’ve missed one or more payments.
“If we’re taking energy as a human right, then that means no more shut-offs,” said Justin Schott, project manager for the Energy Equity Project at the University of Michigan’s School of Environment & Sustainability. “Because we know that, whether that happens in extreme heat or extreme cold, this can lead to death.”
From 2017 to 2021, there were an average of 188 heat-related deaths in the US, up from an average of 81 in the five years before that.
Schott believes that there is no reason why moratoriums on shut-offs should not continue while the government continues to tinker with the electricity affordability and assistance programs.
“I think we saw that it dramatically worked and that states were able to do it,” he said. “So there’s no reason why we can’t continue to do that other than lack of will from regulators and utilities to continue on that path.”
But Mark Wolfe, head of the professional group for energy assistance directors, disagrees. For him, reinstating moratoriums amounts to, “kicking the can down the road.” The real issue, Wolfe argues, is that utility bills are simply becoming too expensive, and states differ widely on their policies to reduce the burden on their residents. “If you delay payment, all you’re doing is building up an outstanding bill that has to be addressed at some point in the future,” he said.
A looming heat wave this Labor Day weekend might threaten Western states’ power grids and their residents, with utilities already warning of rotating blackouts.
California has already seen historical heat this week, fueling wildfires that have spurred evacuations and closed a section of Interstate 5. Temperatures are expected to hit 115 degrees Fahrenheit across the southern part of the state this weekend, breaking record temperatures. According to the National Weather Service, excessive heat warnings are already in effect in central Great Basin states such as California, Utah, and Idaho. California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s electric grid, said it will likely see the most demand for power on Labor Day and is asking residents to conserve energy to prevent more drastic measures like rotating blackouts.
“Consumers are urged to reduce energy use from 4-9 p.m. when the system is most stressed because demand for electricity remains high and there is less solar energy available,” the operator said in a statement. It’s also asking residents not to charge electric vehicles, which are growing in popularity as the state phases out gas-powered cars, during peak hours.
The ongoing drought in the West is already hitting electricity generation, causing some hydroelectric plants to pump out less power, and utility companies have had to fill in the gap with power from natural gas and coal plants, which then contribute to carbon emissions. Utilities in San Diego and Phoenix are taking aggressive steps to conserve water in the face of recent drought conditions, after a one-two-punch of extreme temperatures and diminished water supplies places increased pressure on energy producers and consumers.
Heat waves also pose a threat to public health. They disproportionately harm low-income residents, Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, and people without housing. Extreme heat kills 600 people in the United States each year.
Gavin Newsom, California’s Democratic governor, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday with measures that aim to alleviate the strain on the power grid. The declaration allows residents to use backup diesel generators during periods of peak demand and approves increased electricity production. According to the Associated Press, these measures will increase air pollution in the state, but Karen Douglas, the governor’s senior energy adviser, told the AP that the priority was to keep the lights on.
After weeks of relentless rains, a new cycle of flash floods devastated parts of Pakistan over the weekend, raising the country’s monsoon death toll to 1,136 since June, according to the country’s National Disaster Management Authority. Nearly 1 million homes have been damaged or destroyed and over 33 million Pakistanis affected, with displaced families sleeping on roads, in lean-tos and tents, and in makeshift shelters in schools and mosques.
“This is very far from a normal monsoon – it is climate dystopia at our doorstep,” Sherry Rehman, a Pakistan senator and the country’s climate change minister, told AFP on Monday.
The monsoon season began earlier than normal this year, in mid-June, and the country has experienced its heaviest rain on record since the 1960s. The southern province of Sindh received 784 percent more rainfall this month than the August average and southwestern Baluchistan received 500 percent more, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department as reported in the New Delhi Times. The department warns that rains could continue into next month.
Aid from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates arrived in Islamabad on Monday for areas that have been hit by what Rehman called “the monster monsoon of the decade.” But distributing supplies will be difficult: Thousands of miles of roads and more than 150 bridges have been destroyed throughout the country. Civilian rescuers and government soldiers are still struggling to evacuate thousands of people marooned in inaccessible areas.
All four provinces of Pakistan have suffered the effects of the floods. Large swathes of the southern Balochistan and Sindh provinces are currently underwater; 75 percent of Balochistan, the country’s least developed province which accounts for half the land area of Pakistan, has been affected.
In the mountainous north, where the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush ranges meet, glacial lake outburst floods have rushed through valleys, sweeping away bridges and homes. Pakistan is home to over 7,000 glaciers, the highest number in the world outside the polar region; as these melt with global temperature increases, they exacerbate the impact of heavy rain. In the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, weekend fooding from the Swat River displaced tens of thousands who now await aid at relief camps in government buildings.
By the time the rain recedes, said Rehman, a third of Pakistan could be underwater. The government has declared a national emergency and called for international aid. On Tuesday, the United Nations will launch an international appeal for $160 million in donations.
The disaster comes amid a financial crisis in Pakistan, with the nation facing historic inflation, depreciating currency, and a massive account deficit. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, board approved $1.17 million in bailout funds so that the country can avoid default. The IMF and Pakistan signed a bailout accord in 2019 but the payments from the IMF had been delayed over concerns about Pakistan’s compliance with the deal terms under the government of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The new government instituted painful economic austerity measures in order to access the funding.
Khan, ousted in April after a constitutional vote of no confidence, has been holding rallies to demand new elections. NPR reported that in remote areas of Pakistan, there’s a sense that the political crisis in Islamabad has drawn attention away from the devastating impacts of the rains until now. On Monday, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail suggested that Pakistan could reopen some trade with India to import vegetables; trade has been blocked since 2019 when New Delhi moved to integrate part of the disputed Kashmir region. Last week, the U.N. said in a statement that it had allocated $3 million for flood response in Pakistan, focusing on the most vulnerable.
Pakistan emits less than 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases but consistently ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries in Germanwatch’s Global Climate Risk Index. In comments on Sunday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Bilawal Bhutto Zardari pointed out how Pakistan bears the brunt of climate change while high-emitting countries fail to reduce their emissions sufficiently. “Pakistan contributes negligible amounts to the overall carbon footprint,” he said, “but we are devastated by climate disasters such as these time and time again, and we have to adapt within our limited resources.”
Hundreds of thousands of Americans have dropped their flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program, or NFIP, since last October, E&E News found in a review of federal records. The sharp decline in coverage comes after the Federal Emergency Management Agency overhauled the program’s insurance pricing system, a move that was meant to make premiums more accurately reflect the flood risk of a property.
When the agency reviewed the NFIP last year, it discovered inequities in the way that insurance premiums were priced. Homes in the less risky areas of flood zones were overpaying for their premiums, and shouldering a higher burden of the costs of flood risk. The system overhaul was meant to address these inequalities, adjusting premium rates according to level of risk.
“[W]e have a responsibility to make sure that we have actuarily sound, fair, and equitable rates. And so that’s what’s driving the change,” NFIP senior executive David Maurstad told CNBC last year.
While this restructuring has caused some homeowners to see decreases in their insurance premiums, others saw their rates spike to over $4,000 annually from just around $700, according to Jeremy Porter, chief research officer at First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group that quantifies and communicates climate risks.
E&E News found that the total number of NFIP policies declined by nearly 9 percent, from 4.96 million to 4.54 million, between the end of September 2021 and the end of June 2022.
The drops in coverage come at a time when it is more important than ever for people living in flood zones to buy insurance. FEMA estimates that climate change will cause the size of areas with a high flood risk to increase by 55 percent along the nation’s coastlines and up to 45 percent along major river systems by the end of the century.
Sarah Pralle, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that while the preliminary numbers of dropped policies are concerning, they’re part of a wider problem that extends back before the NFIP’s restructuring. Americans living in flood-prone areas tend not to buy insurance, making premiums higher for those who do, because the insurance pool is smaller.
This problem could be partly addressed through enforcement: Although federal law requires homeowners paying off federally backed mortgages in high-risk areas to purchase flood insurance, many choose not to, or drop their policy after a few years.
Homes submerged under flood waters from the North Fork of the Kentucky River in Jackson, Kentucky, in July 2022. Leandro Lozada / AFP
But the bigger problem, she believes, is rooted in FEMA’s flood maps, which depict current levels of disaster risk using data from the past, instead of projections for the future.
“You might buy a house just outside the edge of a flood zone, thinking you’re safe, but you’re going to have that mortgage for 30 years,” she said. “And probably within 30 years your house is going to be in a flood zone.”
The solution, Pralle believes, is to adjust FEMA’s flood maps to encompass a larger number of people, thereby widening the insurance pool and bringing down premiums for everyone.
But requiring more people to buy flood insurance is a politically unpopular policy that risks overburdening low-income homeowners who are already struggling to pay their mortgages. Recognizing this, Pralle said an equitable national flood insurance program would offer subsidies to low income families to incentivize them to seek coverage.
After all, she said, it is in everyone’s best interest to have flood insurance. Individuals without coverage must often rely on FEMA disaster relief funds, which are typically only several thousand dollars, as opposed to the up to $250,000 that NFIP policyholders may receive for structural damage to a single-family home.
“If you look at outcomes, people with insurance do a lot better after disasters,” she said. The goal should be to make sure low-income homeowners have access to those better outcomes. “Subsidize those premiums so that they have that security and they don’t lose everything,” Pralle said. “I don’t think the solution is just don’t make people buy insurance.”
In 30 years, counties along the Texas-Mexico border will experience temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for more than a third of the year. In St. Louis County, Missouri, the heat index — how hot the combination of temperature and humidity make it feel outside — is expected to exceed 108 degrees for three weeks every year, up from just seven days today. And in Monroe, Florida, residents will face temperatures that feel like 100 degrees or more for 49 consecutive days by midcentury.
Those are just some of the startling findings of a new model developed by the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation that examines how climate change will exacerbate heat extremes across the United States in the coming decades. According to the model, roughly 8 million Americans currently live in parts of the country that experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees F at least one day a year, a threshold the National Weather Service considers “Extreme Danger.” The group’s peer-reviewed model projects that that figure will increase 13-fold to about 107 million in 30 years. The increases in temperature are expected to be concentrated in the middle of the country, in a region the nonprofit has named the “Extreme Heat Belt” — an area running from Texas and Louisiana up to Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa.
“We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125 degrees F and the results will be dire,” Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation, said in a press release.
By 2053, 26 percent of counties in the U.S. are projected to face heat index temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit at least one day per year.
First Street Foundation
First Street was founded in 2016 to develop ways of analyzing climate risk and to help homeowners better understand the threats their properties face. The organization has similar tools to assess the risk of flooding and wildfire to properties, which have been incorporated by real estate companies such as Redfin and Realtor.com. The group’s peer-reviewed heat risk model assigns each property in the United States a score from one to 10 reflecting its exposure to minimal to extreme heat over the life of a 30-year mortgage.
Aside from dangerous heat blanketing the Midwest and parts of the South, the model found that “virtually the entire country is subject to increasing perils associated with heat exposure,” the report concludes. The West Coast is most likely to experience increases in the number of consecutive days of high heat, while the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic states are most likely to face the longest duration of days with heat index temperatures above 100 degrees.
Such temperature increases are associated with serious public health risks. For communities that are not used to warmer weather, such as those in the Midwest, temperature increases and prolonged stretches of extreme heat can be dangerous. Hotter days have been tied to heat fatigue, stroke, and death. A 2021 Los Angeles Times series found that about 3,900 people had likely died in California in the past decade due to extreme heat — a figure six times the state’s official count. Low-income communities and communities of color were hit hardest. Access to air conditioning and the amount of paved surfaces and tree cover determined the effect of higher temperatures on people, the investigation found.
First Street also concluded that a lack of cooling infrastructure is set to exacerbate the consequences of higher temperatures. To make matters worse, cooling costs for those who do have air conditioning are also likely to rise. According to the group’s analysis, Texas and California, the largest consumers of energy for cooling purposes, are set to face a 9- and 15-percent increase in cooling costs statewide by 2053, respectively. These increases in cooling needs are also tied to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. The top five states with the most cooling-related carbon emissions are Texas, Florida, Ohio, California, and Missouri. The report warned that increasing cooling needs in these states could jeopardize their ability to meet various climate and emission reduction goals.
The report comes amid a summer of record-breaking heat across the country. Last month was among the hottest Julys ever recorded. The scorching temperatures have strained electric grids in Texas, the West and the Midwest. With volatile gas prices, coal plants shuttering, declining hydropower, and extreme heat, the U.S. electric grid has struggled to meet demand. First Street’s new report signals there’s not much relief in sight.
This storywas originally published by High Country News and is reproduced here as part of theClimate Deskcollaboration.
On an evening in late June, Alex Jimenez, Tucson Water’s artist-in-residence, hosted an outdoor art installation designed to “call the rain through sound.”
The Santa Cruz Sound Experience, held underneath one of the bridges that crosses the dry Santa Cruz River, featured a three-hour sensory compilation of the region’s seasonal summer rains. Toward the end of the event, the skies answered the call, and attendees celebrated as raindrops fell.
The monsoon season has come to the Southwest again. But this season is different from past monsoons: It’s the first since scientists demonstrated that North America’s monsoon — which drenches Sonora, northern Sinaloa and northeastern Chihuahua in Mexico, and the southern fringe of Arizona and New Mexico — differs from seasonal rains in the rest of the world. And, unfortunately for Southwesterners — who welcome the precipitation and need a break from the summer heat — the phenomenon is likely to weaken as the climate warms.
Monsoons, which exist on every continent except Antarctica, are continental-scale wind patterns that transport water vapor and cause seasonal rains. In general, they occur when intense sunlight during summer causes the land to heat up. Warm air rises and draws in water vapor from the ocean, creating a “thermal contrast between the land and the nearby ocean, and an air circulation between the two,” William Boos, a climate scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, explained.
Scientists and lay observers alike have long thought that the North American monsoon was also caused by this “thermal forcing,” with cooler water vapor being pulled in from the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico. To Boos, however, something about North America’s monsoon, which is smaller and more oddly shaped than its peers, was “always a little peculiar.”
In 2021, Boos and Salvatore Pascale, who researches climate dynamics at the University of Bologna in Italy, published an article in the journal Nature that showed that the Southwest’s summer storms were not caused by the typical thermal forcing. Rather, they were caused by something that scientists call “mechanical forcing,” which has to do with terrain. When the mid-latitude jet stream — the band of eastward winds that circle the entire planet — collides with the Rocky Mountains, the range deflects the winds southward, to Mexico. As the winds move east, they push over Mexico’s Sierra Madre, after collecting water vapor from the tropics of the eastern Pacific and Mexico. Then, when the jet stream lifts, forcing moisture-laden air up over mountainous terrain, the vapor condenses into “orographic rain” that falls on the western side of the mountains, creating the monsoon.
“The orographic effect is critically important, especially in terms of what’s going to happen with climate change,” said scientist Agustin Robles of the Technological Institute of Sonora’s Laboratory of Environmental Modeling and Sustainability. “We’ll see the bulk of the changes there.”
There’s a simple reason why scientists hadn’t already figured out geology’s role in creating the monsoon: The technology to do so didn’t exist. Whereas the Tibetan Plateau is so large that it could be modeled for its effect on climate starting in the 1980s, the Sierra Madre was too small and too fine for computers to render accurately until recently. Boos and Pascale used a cutting-edge supercomputer to compare a model of the region’s topography with a version in which they set all the landscape’s elevations to zero. Since that version in effect flattened Mexico, they called it “FlatMex.” In FlatMex, the monsoon all but disappeared, leading to their conclusion that the North American Monsoon is created by wind going over the Sierra Madre.
The recent research built on previous studies of the North American monsoon. A few years ago, Pascale, Boos and six other collaborators published a study that challenged the idea that climate change will increase precipitation across North America.
“There’s a classic idea that as the air gets warmer, it can hold more water vapor, so it will deliver more water to the continent,” said Boos. While that may be true for other monsoons — including the southeast Asian monsoon, which has already become wetter — it’s different in regions like the Southwest, where most of the rainfall comes from thunderstorms and the cumulus clouds associated with them.
Thunderstorms are caused by a difference in the temperature and humidity of the air near ground level and the air higher up in the atmosphere. Once the difference between the two air temperatures reaches a certain level, they turn over, switching places. The hotter, less dense air rises and the colder, denser air sinks, because of gravity. But as the upper levels of the atmosphere warm, there is less of a difference between the two temperatures — and that means fewer thunderstorms and a weaker monsoon.
Communities in the Southwest, which is already facing increasing aridity and extreme heat, will need to improve both air quality and the infrastructure that ensures their access to water, and they’ll also have to find ways to cope with more days at high temperatures. Unfortunately, there “aren’t a lot of options” to address the declining summer rainfall, said Dan McGregor, natural resources services manager for Bernalillo County, New Mexico. His agency mainly encourages water users to conserve water, maintain their wells and to harvest rainwater.
In the Southwest, these effects will disproportionately affect those who rely directly on the rains. Sheryl Joy, Acting Seed Bank Manager at the organization Native Seeds/SEARCH in Tucson, said that for Indigenous communities in Arizona who have developed agricultural systems organized around the summer rains, “continued declines in monsoon rainfall could have devastating effects” on the communities who continue to use these practices.
In Sonora, Mexico, where most of the monsoon’s precipitation falls, there is less infrastructure in place to address water shortages than there is in the U.S. Southwest. “Unlike Arizona or California, which have long-term planning and responses such as the Tier 1 shortage announcements, here our institutions have not anticipated the effects of the weaker monsoon,” said Robles. “They tend to blame drought, when it’s really a modification of the monsoon over the last 30 or 40 years.”
Jonah Ivy of Tucson’s Watershed Management Group focuses on helping residents use the water that falls, rather than waste it as runoff. “What does a weaker monsoon matter if right now we’re pushing all the water off our landscapes?” he said. “Even with a weaker monsoon, we still live in the wettest desert in the world. We still live in abundance.”
By the end of this century, hotter nights may contribute to a 60 percent increase in the global mortality rate, according to new research.
A study in Lancet Planetary Health released on Monday looked at how nighttime temperatures are on the rise across China, Japan, and Korea. It estimated that nighttime temperatures may increase by almost 35 degrees, from 68.7 degrees Fahrenheit to 103.5, in 28 large cities across East Asia, and are expected to surpass the increase in daytime temperatures.
“We project at least a doubling intensity of hot night with higher increase in mortality burden due to hot nights,” study authors wrote, “suggesting a growing role of night-time warming in heat-related health effects in a changing climate.”
The authors, including researchers in China, South Korea, Japan, Germany and the United States, noted that most research has focused on rising daytime temperatures’ effect on various populations but that little research has been done on night-time temperatures. Last year, a paper in the Epidemiology Journal found a similar connection between hot nights and a rising mortality rate in southern Europe.
The latest report comes in the middle of an oppressively hot summer. In the United States, the average temperature in July was 76.4 degrees Fahrenheit, nearly 3 degrees above average, making this year the third warmest in a 128-year record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Europe also saw record-breaking temperatures this July, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Many European cities experienced an intense heat wave, with temperatures jumping 18 degrees Fahrenheit above average. The simmering heat poses a threat to public health: The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that extreme heat causes more than 1,300 deaths every year in the United States.
The newly released study in Lancet noted that future heat-wave modeling and mitigation efforts should move beyond tracking daytime heat, especially in protecting vulnerable populations during sweltering nights.
“Locally, heat during the night should be taken into account when designing the future heat wave warning system,” said study co-author and climate scientist Yuqiang Zhang in a statement, “especially for vulnerable populations and low-income communities who may not be able to afford the additional expense of air conditioning.”
Children and pregnant women, older adults, people with disabilities, and those with chronic medical conditions are more susceptible to problems caused by extreme heat. In 2020, older adults experienced 3.1 billion more days of exposure to heat waves on average, and children under a year old were subjected to 626 million more heat wave days than average, according to the Lancet’s 2021 comprehensive report on climate change and public health.
The Lancet Planetary Health study also noted that, even under strict greenhouse gas reduction scenarios and the achievement of global climate goals such as the Paris Climate Agreement, the number of hot, intense nights are expected to rise.
This story is part of the Grist seriesParched, an in-depth look at how climate change-fueled drought is reshaping communities, economies, and ecosystems.
On an afternoon in late June, the San Luis Reservoir — a 9-mile lake about an hour southeast of San Jose, California — shimmered in 102-degree heat. A dusty, winding trail led down into flatlands newly created by the shrinking waterline. Seven deer, including a pair of fawns, grazed on tall grasses that, in wetter times, would have been at least partially underwater. On a distant ridge, wind turbines turned languidly.
That day, the reservoir, California’s sixth-largest and a source of water for millions of people, was just 40 percent full. Minerals deposited by the receding waters had turned the reservoir’s lower banks white, like the rings on a bathtub. Discarded clothing, empty bottles, and a lone shoe sat scattered across the newly exposed, parched ground. An interactive graphic in the visitor’s center reported that this year’s snowpack — which provides the water that travels from the Sacramento River Delta into the reservoir itself — was zero percent of the yearly average.
Depending on how you look at it, California — and most of the American West — has either entered its third catastrophic drought of the past 10 years, or has been in a constant, unyielding “megadrought” since 2000. Reservoirs are emptying; lawns are turning brown; swaths of farmland that have coaxed lettuce, almonds, and alfalfa out of the dry ground for decades are going fallow. The Colorado River, which originates in the snow-capped Rocky Mountains and provides water to some 40 million people in the Southwest, has slowed to a trickle. That waterway also feeds the largest reservoir in the United States, Lake Mead, 40 miles east of Las Vegas, which in recent months has seen water levels so low that bodies have emerged from its shrinking, normally crystalline waters. The Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency responsible for many supersized water projects, has asked states to cut their use of water from the Colorado River by 2 to 4 million acre-feet, an amount close to all the water that California receives from the Colorado in a single year.
A buoy that reads ‘No Boats’ lays on cracked dry earth that was once part of Lake Mead in Nevada. In the background, people carry a boat to reach the reservoir’s receding shoreline on July 23. FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images
Throughout the West, anxiety about drought is as palpable as the dryness of the air; talk of water fills newspapers and conversations alike. “Aridification kills civilizations. Is California next?” read one Los Angeles Times headline in June. In February, scientists confirmed that the current, decades-long “megadrought” is the worst in 1,200 years. They also confirmed that rising temperatures — driven by human consumption of fossil fuels — were partly to blame.
In one sense, the climate change link seems obvious. Since 1850, global temperatures have climbed 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit); in areas of the U.S. hit hardest by drought, the increase is even higher. Temperatures in California have risen about 3 degrees F since 1896; in Arizona, they have gone up by 2.5 degrees.
But the connection between climate change and drought is not as straightforward as it seems. Some areas are likely to get wetter while others get drier. Still others may accumulate the same total rainfall, but in inconsistent patterns: More rain might fall in fewer, more intense bursts, followed by longer dry spells. “It’s complicated,” said Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at NASA and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
But scientists can say some things with certainty. As the world gets hotter, soils are getting drier; it takes more and more precipitation to water the same crops and fill the same reservoirs. Rising temperatures, therefore, are digging the American West and other arid regions into a deeper and deeper hole. The more the world warms, the more rain will be needed to compensate, and that will force people to rethink how — and where — they will live and eat when the water dries up.
One problem with linking drought and climate change is that there is little agreement on what drought actually is. “No two people — including no two scientists — really agree on even how to define drought,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. A drought, in its most general sense, is simply a lack of water relative to some long-term average — but where that dearth of water appears can change how the drought is defined, studied, and managed. Climate scientists and meteorologists talk about “meteorological drought” (a lack of rainfall), farmers worry about “agricultural drought” (a lack of soil moisture), and water managers try to avoid “hydrological drought” (a lack of groundwater or water in reservoirs).
This complexity has resulted in conflicting messages about the role of human-caused global warming in the droughts that have ravaged the American West and the rest of the world. Thanks to the science of extreme event attribution, which connects weather extremes to global warming, it has become commonplace to cite climate change as a factor in devastating heat waves or torrential floods. But droughts are trickier. Drought depends on both the rain that falls and how quickly it is evaporated and used.
On the rainfall side of things, climate change’s influence in California, Nevada, Arizona, and other Western states remains murky. In recent years, rain and snowfall in California have become more variable; the dry years are drier, the wet years wetter. In 2017, Lake Oroville served as a sobering illustration of this whiplash when — in the span of less than four months — the reservoir north of Sacramento went from less than half full to nearly overflowing, causing the main spillway to collapse. Some 188,000 local residents were evacuated. Swain and his colleagues estimate a 25- to 100-percent increase in such “extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events” in California over the next century.
But even with this volatility, total precipitation in the West is expected to stay roughly the same. Swain said scientists expect the Pacific Northwest to get somewhat wetter; Arizona and New Mexico somewhat drier. The clearest link between drought and climate change right now, therefore, is not a lack of rainfall — it’s rising temperatures.
The atmosphere is like a sponge: It sucks up water from soils, plants, rivers, oceans, and lakes. Any time rain falls, some of it will evaporate, returning back into the sky before it can be piped into homes, fields, or aqueducts. Scientists have a measure for how “thirsty” the atmosphere is, or how much water the sky absorbs: evaporative demand. As temperatures go up, evaporative demand increases. The sky gets thirstier.
Dramatically low water levels, the result of six years of drought, give the appearance of bathtub rings on Lake Powell in March 2007 near Page, Arizona. David McNew/Getty Images
“A very basic rule is that if you’re going to have a warmer atmosphere then you need more precipitation to compensate,” said Park Williams, a hydroclimatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “If you turn the heater up in your house and you don’t give your plants extra water, you see the same thing.”
Christine Albano, an ecohydrologist at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada, studies evaporative demand and how it might change under global warming. “A warmer atmosphere can hold more water,” she explained. And, she added, the changes are nonlinear — a small change in temperature could lead to a much larger change in how thirsty the sky is. In a paper published earlier this year, Albano and her co-authors found that evaporative demand has increased over the past 40 years, most dramatically in the U.S. Southwest around the Rio Grande River. In that region, evaporative demand increased by 8 to 15 percent — meaning that the area would require 8 to 15 percent more rainfall to maintain the same water levels.
And as temperatures warm, the situation will get even worse. “For every raindrop, we’re going to get less of that going into our streams and rivers,” Albano said.
That thirsty atmosphere has been behind most of the studies that have found a clear link between global warming and persistent droughts. The last catastrophic drought in California, which stretched from 2011 to 2017, drained reservoirs and forced farmers to pump groundwater from the state’s disappearing underground aquifers. Some scientists looked for a direct link between climate change and the lack of rainfall, but did not find convincing evidence. Those who looked at the effect of temperature on soil moisture and general aridity, however, found something more interesting: that human-caused climate change had turned what would have been a more moderate drought into a devastating one. In a paper published in 2015, Williams, Cook, and others found that skyrocketing temperatures, brought on by human-caused global warming, had made the drought 15 to 20 percent more intense.
A sign on a farm trailer reading “Food grows where water flows,” hangs over dry, cracked mud on a farm near Buttonwillow, California in 2009. The American West has been in a constant, unyielding megadrought since 2000.
Similar results have been found all over the globe. A few years ago, scientists analyzed the European drought of 2016 to 2017 — which helped spark deadly wildfires in Portugal — and found that it had been made worse by high evaporative demand. To the south, the Horn of Africa has been ravaged by a series of droughts over the last decade, causing successive crop failures and threatening millions with severe hunger and starvation. In 2015, scientists searching for ties to climate change found no connection to the region’s low rainfall. They did, however, find a link between rising greenhouse gas emissions and the high temperatures that have helped to desiccate the landscape of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
Temperature has also been implicated in the study of the decades-long “megadrought” in the American West, a loosely defined term that has been used to indicate droughts that last two decades or more. Scientists have spent decades drilling holes in trees to collect tree ring records, a science known as dendrochronology, which can be used to estimate soil moisture levels going back for millennia. (Some records have even been collected from ancient wooden ladders in the cliff dwellings of Chaco Canyon.) According to those records, 19 of the last 23 years were drier than the average over the past millennium.
Williams, the UCLA scientist, says that this megadrought is being made even worse by climate change. “Forty percent of the severity of the drought conditions in this megadrought is attributable to human-caused climate trends” largely from rising temperatures, Williams said.
Sixty percent of the megadrought, Williams cautioned, could simply be seen as simply bad luck; even without humans burning fossil fuels, megadroughts have endured for decades in the past, starving the landscape and local species of water. But what was previously just bad luck is now getting a boost from climate change. “It’s only going to get warmer,” Williams said. “It’s going to take more and more good luck to bail us out of drought — and less and less bad luck to fall back in.”
An aerial view of drought-shrunken Horseshoe Lake near Mammoth Lakes, California on July 28. David McNew/Getty Images
Climate change is also undermining one of the American West’s most treasured tools for managing drought: snowpack. In the Sierra Nevadas of California and in the Colorado Rockies, snow falls during the winter and then acts as a natural reservoir, slowly releasing water as it thaws during the hot, dry summer season. But as temperatures rise, more precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow, and any remaining snow is melting more quickly and earlier in the season. By 2050, scientists estimate that the mountains of the Western U.S. will lose around 25 percent of their snowpack. In 60 years, they warn, there may be no snowpack at all.
And, as the planet heats up, megadroughts such as the one raging in California, Arizona, and New Mexico are expected to return again. And again. According to one study by Cook, the NASA scientist, and others, the risk of a 35-year-long drought hitting the American Southwest was less than 12 percent between 1950 and 2000. But if countries fail to take aggressive action to combat climate change, and the world continues to warm, the risk of such a drought will climb to more than 80 percent.
The American West is built on a strange, hodgepodge system of water that, for the last century, has somehow sustained millions of residents in the most arid parts of the country. Reservoirs, dams, and aqueducts carry water from where it is plentiful — the peaks of the Sierra Nevadas, the banks of the Colorado River — and deliver it to where it is scarce: fast-growing metropolises like Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Los Angeles. In California, 75 percent of the state’s rain and snow falls north of Sacramento, but 80 percent of its water demand comes from the southern two-thirds of the state. This imbalance is corrected artificially: A long cement aqueduct carries water from the north of the state to the south, shuttling through the dry, crackling Central Valley. More comes from the Colorado River, which brings water from the east to Los Angeles and Southern California.
A golf course next to undeveloped desert in Palm Desert, California on July 13. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 97 percent of the state’s land area is in at least severe drought status. Mario Tama/Getty Images
This system has faced numerous droughts before. In dry times, policymakers call for cutbacks and march down the list of water rights-holders and inform each how their supply will be curtailed. The last big drought in California, which reached its peak in 2014 and 2015, saw residents “drought-shaming” one another for maintaining lush lawns (Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti called such shaming a civic duty) and an enormous backlash against almond growers, after news broke that it takes a gallon of water to produce a single almond.
But the sheer longevity of the current dry period has even the most experienced water managers worried. That complex system of dams, aqueducts, and reservoirs that funnels water to Western states for lawns, golf courses, and farms is cracking under the strain. “We built these amazing places based on the promise of water,” said John Fleck, a professor of water policy and governance at the University of New Mexico. “And they’re good things — I don’t want to demonize what we did. But they were based on the promise of water that wouldn’t be there.”
To be sure, the current drought and even the overlapping, decades-long “megadrought” will eventually end. “I don’t expect it to be as dry as it has been the past few years forever,” Williams said. But the slow-moving disaster has demonstrated just how shaky the West’s foundation is. And it is a warning that the water system of the present may not hold for the future.
A family fishes on the shores of the San Luis Reservoir, California’s sixth-largest and a source of water for millions of people, in 2019. Today, the reservoir is just 40 percent full. Nhat V. Meyer/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images
What will happen next? Nearly 40 million people live in California alone; another 12 million reside in New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. And, in the wake of the pandemic, southwestern states are growing fast, as people look for more affordable housing, strong job markets, and warmer weather. But that warmer weather has a darker side. Not far from Phoenix, Arizona — one of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. — one community is already running out of water. As the Colorado River and the snowcaps of the Sierra Nevadas continue to dry up, the water flowing to the West’s sprawling suburbs and millions of acres of farmland will slow to a crawl. When that happens, communities will need to adapt. Agricultural water use will have to decline — even if that means destroying livelihoods that have continued uninterrupted for decades. Lawns will dry up; lush golf courses will disappear. The very character of the West — and of many arid parts of the globe — will be transformed. “In some ways it’s really simple,” Fleck said, of the climate-changed drought future. “The West will be less green.”
More than half of the infectious diseases known to impact humans are being aggravated by climate change, scientists reported Monday in a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change. The research found that illnesses like hepatitis, cholera, malaria, and hundreds of others were spreading faster, expanding in range, and becoming more severe because of climate-related events.
It’s not just transmission that’s increasing; climate change is also making it harder to fight off these diseases by reducing people’s health, immunity, and access to medical care, the researchers concluded.
“Global health response to the diversity of these diseases will need to be massive,” said Erik Franklin, an associate research professor at the University of Hawai’i and one of the authors of the study. “It’s another piece of evidence that we’re in trouble. It’s a call to arms to rapidly decrease our greenhouse gas emissions load.”
The research, led by scientists at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, focused on 10 kinds of extreme weather events exacerbated by greenhouse gases, including floods, heat waves, drought, and wildfires. The researchers looked at studies where those events were observed to affect 375 known infectious diseases. Although the study didn’t quantify the degree to which climate change impacted illnesses, it surveyed instances where it was at least one of the driving factors. In 58 percent of diseases, climate change aggravated infectious disease.
The ways in which climate change can affect illnesses fall into several broad categories. First, as global temperatures rise and ecosystems shift, pathogens are changing their ranges, moving closer to new populations. Mosquitos, for example, are expanding into new areas previously inhospitable for their species, spreading malaria, dengue, West Nile virus, and Chikungunya fever.
Humans themselves are also moving closer to pathogens that pose a risk. Displacement caused by storms, floods, and sea level rise expose people to viruses, bacteria, and other pathogens including E. Coli, Vibrio cholerae, and salmonella that can make them feel ill. COVID-19 trends were impacted by extreme weather as well. Rain and heat waves drove people inside during the pandemic; in some cases, this kept people isolated, and in others, it may have spread the virus by forcing large groups into cooling centers or densely crowded homes.
Another way climate change affects disease, the scientists said, is by making pathogens stronger. Ocean warming, for instance, speeds up the growth of harmful algal blooms which have been linked to diarrhea and vomiting, respiratory issues, and liver damage.
Lastly, climate change can weaken people’s coping abilities and make them more susceptible to disease. Nutrient concentration in crops, for example, goes down as carbon dioxide levels rise, leading to malnutrition. Stress related to extreme weather also increases cortisol, which reduces our natural immune response.
While most of the diseases in the study are caused by bacteria and viruses, the researchers used an expanded definition of pathogenic to include non-infectious diseases caused by agents such as allergens, which are also made worse by climate hazards.
Climate change is often discussed as a threat multiplier, and as the authors recognize in the introduction of their paper, it is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases. Prior studies have focused on one or a handful of diseases. This was the first attempt to bring all this information together. The researchers also built a website tool that visualizes climate-impacted disease transmission pathways.
“Our hope with the tool is to help practitioners dig deeply into the results, identify if there are any climate hazards or diseases they work on, and find the evidence that those pathways for transmission exist,” said Franklin.
This story was originally published by Mother Jones and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
When flooding from Hurricane Floyd in 1999 destroyed Betty Ricks’ home, she rebuilt. Several years later, she posed proudly for a Christmas photograph beside her daughter and granddaughter in her new living room.
Then another flood — brought by Tropical Storm Ernesto in 2006 — claimed her house a second time, leaving soggy furniture and appliances jumbled sideways.
“Everything gone again,” Ricks said. The only thing she salvaged was the photograph, now water-streaked.
After that storm, she rebuilt her home from scratch once more. Yet more flooding followed.
Now, she and some of her neighbors on Great Spring Road, who live less than 30 miles inland from where the Chesapeake Bay opens into the Atlantic Ocean, see no way out of this dangerous loop but to move. With an increasing number of communities at high risk from worse and more frequent disasters fueled by the changing climate, experts warn that many Americans will find themselves in a similar situation.
But the only way to leave without putting new buyers in the same position — or abandoning their homes altogether — is to seek relocation funds from the federal government.
Twice now, Ricks and her neighbors have asked for that help.
Both times, their application was denied.
Columbia Journalism Investigations in partnership with the Center for Public Integrity and Type Investigations spent a year digging into the growing need for climate relocation across the United States. Little organized government assistance exists for preventing the loss of homes and lives before a disaster, the investigation revealed — and there is no comprehensive focus on helping people escape untenable situations like Ricks’.
For decades the federal government has known that climate change will force people in the US to relocate. And the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, recommended in 2020 that the government form a “climate migration pilot program” to help people who want to relocate due to climate change — a recommendation it reiterated in March.
But in the absence of such a program, communities across the country must try to cobble together funding from across federal agencies through programs that weren’t designed for the climate crisis.
That leaves people in harm’s way to fend for themselves. Many can’t.
Columbia Journalism Investigations and its partners analyzed federal disaster declaration data over the past three decades to identify communities repeatedly hit by major hurricanes, floods, or wildfires, events that climate change is worsening.
The analysis revealed dozens of communities across the country in recent years — and hundreds over the last generation — bearing the brunt of successive disasters, from California to North Carolina, Washington state to Texas. Many are located near the Atlantic, Pacific or Gulf coasts, but the impacts are also felt far from the shoreline, in Missouri, North Dakota, Kentucky, and elsewhere. No region of the country has been spared.
What unites these pummeled communities is that they are often more socially and economically vulnerable than other places, the analysis revealed.
People of color make up more than half the residents in counties that experienced at least three climate disasters in the past five years. These counties also have a higher proportion of residents who speak limited English and people in poverty than the rest of the country.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster preparedness spending — which includes money to help people relocate — already falls short of the need, experts say. And it’s not flowing out equitably, according to the analysis by Columbia Journalism Investigations and its partners.
Among hard-hit counties, places with a higher share of residents of color than the national average received about 40 percent less funding per person. A similar trend held over the last three decades.
Taken together, the findings highlight how, in the face of climate-driven disasters, communities across the country in the greatest need of government assistance receive less of it — if they get anything at all.
These challenges affect a large and growing number of people. In 2018, the government’s most recent National Climate Assessment warned that more than 13 million people across the country may need to move by the end of the century due to sea level rise. Add the effects of hurricanes, riverine flooding and wildfires, and millions more will need to seek out safer parts of the country — or remain trapped in damaged, dangerous conditions.
Sea levels in this Hampton Roads region are rising faster than anywhere else along the Eastern Seaboard. Additionally, the land along the Virginia coast is slowly sinking, causing high tides to push water farther and farther inland. Along Ricks’ Great Spring Road, amid the region’s coastal floodplain, sudden heavy rains can cause water to rise up to seven feet in just an hour, turning the streets into rivers.
Ricks has been rescued by boat from her home twice.
The first of her unsuccessful attempts to move to a safer area came in 2010 when she and her neighbors applied for a federal buyout through Isle of Wight County, where Smithfield is located. For decades, FEMA has facilitated the purchase of flood-prone homes. Following the buyouts, the government demolishes the structures, returning the land to open space to stop the cycle of damage and loss.
On Ricks’ application, a hazard mitigation consultant attested that the grant “would eliminate the possibility that another homeowner will suffer the same misfortune as Mrs. Ricks.”
The state agency denied Ricks’ application for unknown reasons; according to one official, no documentation that could explain the decision could be located.
Betty Ricks sits in her home in Smithfield, Virginia. The family photograph in the background is all she could save after a devastating tropical storm.
Julia Shipley / Columbia Journalism Investigations
In 2020, in the wake of more severe storms, Smithfield officials tried again, applying for $920,240 in funding from FEMA to acquire and demolish Ricks’ home and four neighboring properties. The project would be “100 percent effective in preventing loss of property and life due to future flooding,” the town’s funding paperwork stated.
FEMA denied the request.
The money would have come from FEMA’s newly launched Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, which allocated $500 million for disaster and climate change preparedness projects across the country. But Victoria Salinas, FEMA’s acting deputy administrator for resilience, said there wasn’t enough funding to help Smithfield in 2020.
Instead, assistance went to other communities such as Menlo Park, California, where the government provided $50 million to protect homes and businesses in and around Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley. Across the country, requests for assistance exceeded $3 billion.
“We were oversubscribed,” Salinas said. “There are so many good projects that need to be funded, and communities want to invest in their resilience. They want to be making sure they’re safe today and tomorrow. There’s just not enough money on the streets to [fund them all].”
Ricks sees no way out without that help. She leaves the TV on in her bedroom, checking news broadcasts for warnings about incoming storms. She keeps important papers wrapped in plastic bags in a trunk at the foot of her bed, hoping that will be enough to save them when her home floods again.
Faced with intensifying hazards and a federal government failing to act, she asks a question with no clear answers:
“What am I going to do?”
The federal government knows that climate change will displace millions, but it has been slow to respond to the growing threat. A 2020 Office of Inspector General report criticized FEMA’s programs as inadequate. Other reports and experts have repeatedly called on Congress to designate a lead agency to oversee the complex process of relocating communities.
No single agency or program is responsible for helping Americans move to safer parts of the country, however.
“There’s not a one-stop-shop program for this,” Salinas said. “I think right now, what we do offer is pieces of it.”
Vulnerable Americans must navigate a bureaucratic labyrinth, seeking funding from grant programs spread across multiple agencies, including FEMA, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, and the Department of Agriculture. These programs are narrowly targeted — FEMA might purchase flood-prone homes, for example, while HUD might pay for new infrastructure. None were specifically designed to facilitate the relocation of millions of people.
FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, for example, is the primary way communities obtain money for home buyouts from the federal government. Launched three decades ago to address ballooning flood losses across the United States, it has acquired about 50,000 properties in flood-prone areas at a cost of $3.4 billion. But this is still a fraction of what will be needed in the coming years.
Taken together, Salinas said, the existing “patchwork quilt” of federal programs can help communities relocate. But tapping into them is difficult at best for small, under-resourced communities on the front lines of climate change. Often, they don’t have the resources to apply at all.
“What’s really frustrating is that every different program has different eligibility requirements and determinations,” said Kelly Main, the executive director of Buy-In Community Planning, a nonprofit that helps communities apply for buyouts. “Just being able to go through all of the different eligibility determinations for each of those programs, if you’re a one-person staff in a small town somewhere on the Gulf Coast, is extremely challenging.”
That’s the case for Pauline Okitkun, a tribal administrator of the remote village of Kotlik, Alaska. She often works late into the night to secure grant funding for moving homes in her community of about 650 people to higher ground.
Temperatures in Alaska are increasing more than twice as fast as in the continental US, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment. In July 2019, Anchorage, the state’s largest city — which sits just 375 miles south of the Arctic Circle — recorded a record-high temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit. As Alaska’s permafrost starts to thaw, sinkholes have swallowed homes and destroyed roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, and erosion has eaten away at riverbanks. Many houses in Kotlik hang precipitously over the water as the ground beneath them washes away.
Climate change has also caused more intense and frequent flooding in parts of Alaska, including Kotlik, a riverside community near Pastol Bay in the western part of the state. Okitkun remembers a particularly intense flood in 2013, when water and ice tore down power lines, ripped apart sewage pipes, destroyed the evacuation roads, and damaged homes in the village. For days afterward, it was hard to tell where the water ended and the land began.
That’s increasingly the new normal in the region. In 2018, Kotlik flooded five times in nine months, leaving houses teetering on a crumbling riverbank. Without safe housing nearby, some of the remaining homes have become overcrowded. In one case, more than a dozen people are living in a single dwelling.
“Our winters are shorter. They’re a lot warmer,” Okitkun said. “The ice is a lot thinner.”
The increased flooding, fast-paced erosion, and permafrost thaw were a wake-up call to the community. In 2018, 82 percent of Kotlik residents said they supported moving to higher ground, according to a local survey. In 2021, the village put forward plans to move 21 homes — about a third of the village — to the site of Kotlik’s old airport, as well as bolster the rapidly eroding shoreline, at an estimated cost of at least $20 million. But obtaining the money has been an uphill battle — one that has fallen largely to Okitkun and the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, which has helped the village apply for grants.
This is only the beginning. While Kotlik has prioritized the relocation of the most-threatened homes, the rest of the village also is considering moving to more stable ground as conditions deteriorate.
Okitkun’s experience highlights the challenges vulnerable communities face when seeking relocation assistance from the government. Since 2018, Kotlik has applied for nearly two dozen grants from HUD, FEMA, the BIA, and other agencies. In March, the Department of Agriculture announced that it would be providing aid to help Alaskan villages, including Kotlik, move buildings and infrastructure away from flood-prone areas. But the timeline for the assistance and how much money Kotlik could receive is still unclear. So far, the village has secured $2.9 million. That’s less than a fifth of what it needs. Nearly half of Kotlik’s requests for assistance have been rejected.
Here’s why programs related to climate change or hazard mitigation often disadvantage or exclude communities:
First, the government runs grant applications through a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the projects are worth the federal resources. This is a major hurdle for small towns and villages in Alaska and other parts of the United States, where the number of affected individuals is often small and the cost of infrastructure work can be high. There’s no road access to Kotlik, so equipment and materials must be transported by airplane or boat, increasing costs significantly.
Funding for certain FEMA and HUD grant programs is allocated according to official damage estimates from federally declared disasters. Despite the history of flooding in Kotlik, the area where it’s located has received only one presidential disaster declaration in the past 50 years — in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The government’s definition of disasters does not recognize certain hazards exacerbated by climate change, such as permafrost thaw and erosion.
Without official disaster declarations, Kotlik has been ineligible to apply for many federal grant programs.
This is a common challenge in Alaska. Almost 200 Native Alaskan villages suffer from flooding and erosion but do not qualify for federal programs that would help them adapt or recover, according to a 2003 GAO report. That finding was reaffirmed in two subsequent GAO reports, in 2009 and 2022.
Finally, federal grant programs often require local municipalities to pay between 5 and 50 percent of a project’s cost. That’s prohibitive for many small communities — particularly a village like Kotlik, where the local economy isn’t based primarily on cash and residents rely on traditional subsistence fishing, hunting, and gathering.
Kotlik is not alone in its struggles.
In Washington state, where rising seas cause repeated flooding, at least four tribal nations are seeking federal help to support relocation efforts but still need millions of dollars in order to move.
In Colquitt, a small community in Georgia, Hurricane Michael leveled a mobile home park in 2018. Officials applied to FEMA for buyouts twice and received no assistance.
In Horry County, South Carolina, a working-class community just up the coast from Myrtle Beach, residents applied for a HUD-funded buyout program, but the process has dragged on for years, leaving homeowners stranded.
The federal government has no comprehensive record of how many communities across the country have sought relocation assistance and failed to receive it. In August 2021, Columbia Journalism Investigations and its partners filed public records requests with FEMA and HUD, seeking applications from communities that requested aid and were rejected. A year later, despite repeated inquiries, FEMA provided only some of the information and HUD released no documentation.
Because government assistance programs are so difficult to access, communities often find themselves dealing with the aftermath of disasters on their own. In De Soto, Missouri, residents sit in their cars when it rains, ready to evacuate quickly if the Joachim Creek floods. The Army Corps of Engineers recommended buyouts for about 70 flood-prone properties in 2019. Since then, the city has applied for FEMA buyouts twice, but state and federal officials approved funding for just one property. The homeowner chose to remain in their home. No one in De Soto has been moved out of the flood zone.
With no aid on the horizon, some residents have sold their flood-prone houses at a loss. “Right now they’re selling on this block, but they’re selling for 25 cents on the dollar,” said Ken Slinger, a De Soto resident who lives across the street from the Joachim Creek. A federal buyout would allow him and his wife, Cindy, to move to a safer area, he said. Without one, they can’t afford a comparable home nearby.
Residents who do sell face an emotionally and morally fraught decision. It can feel like their only option, but it leaves new homeowners in a precarious position.
“If we did decide to sell, we wouldn’t sell to anyone who had little kids. We wouldn’t sell to elderly people,” Cindy Slinger said. “You’re selling your house in a floodplain, and you’re selling it so somebody else can move in and be impacted.”
For Okitkun, trying to get the Kotlik community in a position to move to higher ground left her exhausted. “It just took a toll on me,” she said.
In February 2021, she quit her job as a tribal administrator. But no one else stepped in. A few months later, she was back at it, shouldering the work and the stress.
While Native villages like Kotlik have been struggling for years to obtain government assistance, many other vulnerable communities across the country aren’t even in a position to apply.
The unincorporated community of Ironton, in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, was founded by formerly enslaved people in the late 19th century. Today it remains an almost entirely Black community. Many residents are refinery workers or retirees. All have deep ties to Ironton.
Audrey Trufant Salvant, for example, is a fifth-generation Irontonian. “My family has been there from its conception,” she said, “and I have deep-rooted love for this community.”
But like many small, rural communities of color, Ironton has been overlooked by federal disaster preparedness programs. In the past three decades, 16 major hurricanes hit Plaquemines Parish — six in the past five years alone. Ironton residents can rattle off the names of storms as though they were neighbors: Katrina and Rita came through in 2005, Gustav and Ike in 2008, Isaac in 2012.
Those hurricanes and others prompted an influx of federal dollars across the region. Between 1989 and 2020, Louisiana received more than $3.1 billion in disaster preparedness aid through FEMA, almost one-fifth of the more than $18 billion the government has allocated for these programs nationwide.
Cassandra Wilson of Ironton, Louisiana, gestures at her community’s cemetery, flooded by Hurricane Ida in 2021. The storm surge pushed caskets out of the crypts.
Olga Loginova / Columbia Journalism Investigations
But Ironton has received little federal assistance. As an unincorporated town, there’s no local government — no mayor, town manager, or local council — to advocate on the residents’ behalf.
Ironton’s residents rebuilt the town on their own after the flooding that Katrina and Isaac caused. In 2021, Hurricane Ida ravaged the community once again. Rushing waters knocked homes off their foundations, tossed aside pews inside the local church that was built in 1880, and destroyed the cemetery, where some of Ironton’s founding residents — the first free Black people to live in the community — are buried.
“My mother’s tomb is intact,” said Rev. Haywood Johnson Jr., the church’s pastor. “But my uncle and my aunt, their coffins were floating.”
Ironton isn’t alone in its inability to access federal assistance programs.
“Every [buyout] administrator that we’ve talked to tells us about a community that wants to do buyouts and hasn’t been able to, but not usually because they’ve applied to FEMA or HUD and not gotten the money, but because they are unable to apply for the money,” said A.R. Siders, a researcher at the University of Delaware who studies disasters. “They just don’t have the staff or the capacity to do it.”
In 2021, Virginia’s Department of Emergency Management surveyed 40 communities with vulnerable populations that it identified as being at high risk for climate-driven disasters. In response, local officials expressed frustration and exasperation with the federal grant application process. Several had no idea grants were available, and many said they didn’t have sufficient grant-writing expertise or understanding of what the programs were or how they were supposed to work.
“Not an expert in grant programs,” one official wrote in his survey response. “Can’t manage all duties and grant applications.” He was, he said, a “one-man show.”
Often the hurdles stem from the ways in which communities have long been disenfranchised. Through the end of the 1960s, for example, Plaquemines Parish was governed by Leander Perez, a staunch segregationist who denied free Black towns like Ironton basic services. Until 1980, the town had no running water.
It’s no surprise that historically marginalized communities like Ironton are now the ones suffering the most from climate-driven disasters, said Robert Bullard, a professor of urban planning and environmental policy at Texas Southern University and a member of the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council. Across the country, he said, these communities reflect the “racial footprint of infrastructure apartheid” that has persisted throughout America’s history.
“You see those same states, those same counties that 100 years ago you had racial redlining,” Bullard said. “You can see this playing out.”
In Virginia, for example, counties with a greater share of Black residents were much more likely to have experienced a higher number of hurricanes or floods over the past 30 years. That’s according to an analysis performed by Columbia Journalism Investigations and its partners.
North Carolina counties with a higher poverty rate, or a greater share of Black residents, were also more likely to have been hit by a higher number of these disasters. And Texas counties with a greater share of Black or Latino residents were much more likely to have been struck by a higher number of hurricanes, floods, or wildfires.
In the wake of Hurricane Ida, some Ironton residents are considering taking a buyout — not from the government, but from a private company contracted by the Port of Plaquemines Parish, which wants to construct a rail line to move cargo containers through the historic town. The decision about whether to sell is a difficult one, particularly in a community with such historic ties to the area. But having been marginalized for so long, some Ironton residents feel that taking the offer and starting fresh elsewhere might be their only option.
“We’ve been the sacrificial lambs,” said Salvant, who is determined not to sell. “We take the brunt of the storm, take all of the losses, our homes are destroyed. When the federal funding comes in, they utilize it in the northern part of the parish that was barely impacted.”
Plaquemines Parish President Kirk Lepine did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Rev. Haywood Johnson Jr. compares a picture of the Saint Paul Missionary Baptist Church taken before 2021’s Hurricane Ida with what he sees in front of him. During the hurricane, the community of Ironton, Louisiana, was flooded with up to 16 feet of water.
Olga Loginova / Columbia Journalism Investigations
The federal government is slowly acknowledging that vulnerable communities need assistance to move out of the way of climate-fueled disasters. The landmark infrastructure bill passed in November 2021 provides the Bureau of Indian Affairs with $130 million for “community relocation” and $86 million for “tribal climate resilience and adaptation projects.”
This funding is a drop in the bucket, however, compared to the hundreds of billions of dollars that will be needed in the coming decades to help millions of people across the country relocate.
According to a 2020 GAO report, each FEMA buyout between 2008 and 2014 cost the federal government an average of $136,000.
But the cost of doing nothing can escalate quickly.
In flood-prone areas, for example, the government might need to provide repeated rounds of aid to help residents recover and rebuild, said Jeffrey Peterson, a former Environmental Protection Agency official and member of the White House Council on Environmental Quality during the Obama administration. The “smarter investment,” he said, is for the government to buy out residents — avoiding the need for additional help.
“We could end up spending $500,000 on your house,” Peterson said. “So let’s buy it now for $250,000” and prevent escalating costs.
Mitigation efforts like seawalls may delay encroaching waters, but they also require large upfront investments. And even then they are only an interim solution, Peterson and other experts warn.
“Protection for most of our coastline doesn’t make any sense,” said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “For a lot of the U.S. coastline, relocation is probably cost-effective.”
Some federal lawmakers have highlighted the need for more action.
“Climate migration is already happening, and it’s going to be a serious challenge for governments around the world during this century if we don’t quickly chart a new course to lower emissions on a global scale,” said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat, among those who requested the 2020 GAO report that called for the creation of a climate migration pilot program.
But politicians’ unwillingness to fully acknowledge the problem is a key obstacle to funding relocation efforts, according to interviews with a dozen former federal officials.
“People’s climate risk is not something that politicians, that elected officials, that even appointed officials, or people running different agencies of governments in towns and cities across the country are eager to know and make public — largely because they believe that they do not have the money to address the climate risks that might be revealed,” said Harriet Tregoning, a former senior HUD official who is now director of the New Urban Mobility Alliance, a coalition focused on urban transportation. “And highlighting climate risk without a plan for addressing those risks, they see as a recipe for undermining everyone’s confidence in the future of that community.”
Alice Hill, who until May was President Joe Biden’s nominee to replace Salinas as FEMA’s deputy administrator for resilience, supports developing a federal relocation policy. But doing so is “politically unpalatable,” she wrote in her 2019 book Building a Resilient Tomorrow: How to Prepare for the Coming Climate Disruption.
The most recent effort to develop a plan for climate relocation came in 2016 when President Barack Obama established an interagency working group to craft a framework for “managed retreat,” a term that describes voluntary, community-led relocation projects. The Trump administration abandoned the project after just two months, and the Biden administration has not relaunched it.
Asked for comment, the White House did not address this directly. Its Council on Environmental Quality provided a list of efforts to defend people from climate-fueled disasters, only a few of which were about relocation, and offered a statement from Chair Brenda Mallory.
“The truth is: we need a wide range of strategies and solutions — across the entire Federal government — to help communities protect themselves from disaster, respond when disaster strikes, and, in some cases, move out of harm’s way,” she wrote. “Through a series of hazard-focused interagency working groups, we are working to get critical investments to the communities that are most vulnerable, support community-led efforts to protect against climate-fueled disasters, improve climate and risk information for communities, improve building standards and codes across the country, and share best practices and policies.”
Without any federal relocation policy in place, scientists say Americans are already in “unmanaged retreat” — families and individuals are taking matters into their own hands and, without government help, fleeing areas vulnerable to climate-driven disasters.
In Paradise, California, the 2018 Camp Fire, one of the worst wildfires in California history, burned down more than 13,000 structures — 95 percent of the town. At least eighty-five people died. Sarah Bates, a longtime resident, lost her home and everything in it: photo albums, all of her furniture, the record collection she’d compiled during her 40-year stint as a radio DJ, the electric wheelchair she needed to get around.
After the fire, Bates spent her days in Red Cross shelters, then in a motel FEMA paid for. But in the wake of wildfires, government assistance is almost entirely directed toward rebuilding, not relocating. FEMA offers funding for landscaping and home improvements that can mitigate damage from fires, rather than moving people away from the riskiest areas.
“There’s no precedent for wildfire buyouts,” said Robert Barker, a spokesperson for FEMA Region 9, which includes California.
Some Paradise residents were keenly aware that wildfires could decimate the town. A decade earlier, three major wildfires damaged or destroyed nearly 600 structures in Butte County. During one fire, two evacuation routes were blocked by the blaze, leaving only one road out. Residents hit massive traffic jams as they tried to flee.
That left Bates anxiously watching for signs of imminent disaster. Whenever she heard the rumble of an airplane outside, she said, she dropped everything to see if it was on its way to fight a wildfire nearby.
After the Camp Fire, she decided she could no longer stay. She initially moved to North Carolina before eventually settling in central Virginia, funding the move on her own. To get across the country, she spent three days on trains and buses, then hitched a ride from a friend between Nashville and North Carolina. Once she got to the East Coast, she struggled to find affordable housing.
“There’s still people not in housing even now,” Bates said. “And it’s inexplicable to me that the government has not worked out what to do about helping them get rehomed after three years.”
Thousands of other wildfire survivors are also relocating on their own. More than 14,000 people moved out of Paradise after the Camp Fire, according to Peter Hansen and Jacquelyn Chase, researchers at Chico State University who analyzed change of address data to map the migration across the country. More than 4,000 left Butte County and more than 2,600 left California entirely, moving to Oregon, Indiana, Tennessee and other states, the analysis showed.
The movement of people away from local communities can leave cities and regions hollowed out, with fewer resources for the residents and businesses that remain. But even though community relocation may be politically unpopular, experts say public officials can no longer ignore the need to act.
“The absence of managed retreat is going to be unmanaged retreat,” said Anna Weber, a policy analyst with the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It’s not going to be no retreat at all.”
In April, Valerie Butler, a member of the Smithfield Town Council and one of Betty Ricks’ neighbors, sent an email to the town manager and her fellow council members. In it, she urged her colleagues not to give up on efforts to obtain federal aid for relocation.
“I know the bureaucratic process can be daunting,” Butler wrote. But Smithfield was facing another hurricane season, and residents were frightened. “Can you imagine,” she wrote, “being in your home, a place of protection and safety, when it rains each time and your kids ask you, ‘is the boat going to have to come [and] get us.’
“This is heartbreaking. Resolving this situation should be a priority.”
CJI research assistants Gabriela Alcalde and Samantha McCabe contributed to this story. Carolynne Hultquist, a disaster researcher at Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network, contributed to the data analysis.
Julia Shipley, Alex Lubben, Zak Cassel and Olga Loginova are reporting fellows for Columbia Journalism Investigations, an investigative reporting unit at the Columbia Journalism School. The Center for Public Integrity and Type Investigations, two nonprofit investigative newsrooms, provided reporting, editing, fact checking and other support. Additional funding for this story was provided by the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
On the other side of the country, in swampy but fire-free Washington, D.C., Democratic lawmakers were feeling the heat. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping package of bills to bolster wildfire response and drought resilience on Friday. The 49-bill package was sponsored by Joe Neguse, a Democratic representative from Colorado who has devoted his short career in Washington to wildfire prevention policy, and passed largely along party lines.
One of the bill’s headline provisions would increase the minimum wage for wildland firefighters employed by the U.S. Forest Service to $20 per hour and allow them paid mental health leave. Federal firefighters are paid significantly less than their state-employed counterparts, and the agency has struggled with low retention rates. NPR reported in May that Forest Service vacancies were highest in the Pacific Northwest and California. The bipartisan infrastructure law that Congress passed last year temporarily raised the minimum wage for federal firefighters; this bill would make the pay hike permanent.
In addition to bolstering the government’s capacity to fight fires when they happen, the package contains a slew of measures that would address prevention and recovery. It would authorize $500 million for initiatives to remove dead trees and vegetation that have accumulated in forests due to a long history of fire suppression. It would also fund intentional, controlled fire projects that clear out overgrowth, which are known as prescribed burns. The package aims to train more people to manage prescribed burns with the creation of new “prescribed fire centers.” To restore ecosystems that have been impacted by past fires, the legislation would also establish a new “burned area recovery account” authorized at $100 million per year. The funds would be prioritized for projects that enhance public safety and protect water resources.
Protecting and shoring up water resources are major themes across the board in the package. It would boost funding for water recycling and reuse programs. There’s funding for desalination research and project development, which would help cities and states that are looking to suck up seawater, strip it of salty minerals, and use it to replenish groundwater supplies. It would authorize the Interior Department to spend $500 million on efforts to preserve water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, two major reservoirs with hydroelectric dams that store water and generate power for much of the West. It would also include a competitive grant program for clean water access projects that benefit Native American tribes. And it would create a new grant program at the Environmental Protection Agency to pay for states to establish incentives that help homes and businesses install more water-efficient appliances.
Only one House Republican voted for the bill, and other Republicans attacked it for authorizing new spending and for not reforming environmental review processes that inhibit forest thinning projects.
The White House was also somewhat lukewarm on the package. In a statement that asserted the Biden administration’s support for the bills, the Office of Management and Budget also suggested that some of the policies advanced were redundant. “The Administration appreciates the interest of Congress in the Administration’s efforts to address climate change and its effects on wildfires and drought,” it said, but it “would like to work with the Congress to ensure the many provisions in the Act avoid duplication with existing authorities and Administration efforts.”
The legislation faces an uncertain future in the Senate, which has recently turned its attention to a different climate-related package — a spending bill called the Inflation Reduction Act. Alongside a cornucopia of clean energy tax credits that experts say will help the country achieve its emission goals, that package would appropriate $1.8 billion over the next decade for removing hazardous fuels from federal forests.
Flooding in Missouri and Kentucky this week swept away homes, washed out bridges, and killed at least 18 people, as storms dropped record-breaking rainfall throughout the central United States.
St. Louis received nine inches of rain on Tuesday – outstripping the previous record by more than two inches – then was hit again by more storms on Thursday. Residents in parts of the city were trapped by rising floodwaters, including six children at a daycare center who were rescued by first responders. At least two people in Missouri died.
Meanwhile, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear mobilized the National Guard after heavy rains on Wednesday overwhelmed the eastern part of the state, killing at least 16 people and leaving more than 23,000 without power. At least nine inches of rain fell in just 12 hours in some areas – and torrential rain continued throughout the day on Friday. President Joe Biden issued a disaster declaration and pledged federal aid to help with recovery efforts, Beshear announced Friday morning. States of emergency were also declared in nearby Virginia and parts of West Virginia.
“This is so deadly, and it hit so hard, and it hit in the middle of the night,” Beshear told CNN. Though eastern Kentucky, a mountainous area crisscrossed by rivers and valleys, frequently floods, the governor said that “we’ve never seen something like this.”
The floods come amid a wave of weather extremes across the country, from blistering heat waves, to worsening severe drought conditions in the West, to a foot of hail in northern Colorado. Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of natural disasters; warmer air, for instance, holds more moisture, contributing to a jump in rainfall intensity by 13 percent between 1970 and 2021, according to research from Climate Central.
The rains in Kentucky triggered mudslides that blocked roads and left some people stranded on steep slopes, according to the Associated Press. Emergency crews rescued hundreds of people from floodwaters and are still searching for others reported missing, although many areas remain inaccessible. In St. Louis, meanwhile, the EPA is monitoring several landfills that contain radioactive waste and were damaged by this week’s rains, drawing concern from nearby residents and environmental justice groups.
As residents and officials in Kentucky and Missouri take stock of the damage to their communities, federal funding to help people deal with the impacts of extreme weather events remains lacking. The Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, housed in the Department of Health and Human Services, aims to help communities recover from the long-term health impacts of natural disasters like floods and fires — but it has not received any money from Congress in this year’s budget, the Washington Post reported.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, announced in July that it will offer $2.3 billion in grants for its Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, which supports the construction of climate resilient infrastructure in states across the country. But demand for this FEMA funding has far outpaced supply in recent years: Of the nearly 1,000 local governments that applied to an earlier round of funding from the program, just 406 received grants, according to NBC News.
But there are some signs of change: Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia joined Democratic leaders this week in supporting the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which would provide $369 billion in funding for “climate and energy” programs, including tax credits for renewable energy development and grants for frontline communities dealing with pollution. The bill, the most aggressive step to date from Congress to take action on climate change, could come up for a vote by the Senate as soon as next week. If passed, it would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030.
Kentucky’s senior senator, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, opposes the bill, as does every other Senate Republican.
With his landmark climate bill seemingly dead in the Senate, President Joe Biden had been facing mounting pressure to find ways to take climate action that didn’t rely on Congress. It looked like one holdout Democrat, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, stood in the way of passing any version of Build Back Better, insisting just two weeks ago that he would refuse to support any spending to take on climate change.
So last week, from a shuttered coal-fired power plant in Somerset, Massachusetts, Biden pledged to use his presidential powers “to combat the climate crisis in the absence of congressional action.” That day, he announced several executive actions, from setting aside funds to help communities withstand heatwaves and floods, to expanding offshore wind power in the Gulf of Mexico. Then, this Tuesday, the Biden administration rolled out heat.gov, a website with resources to help people cope with extreme heat. And, on Wednesday morning, the White House announced an effort to connect low-income households to solar power.
But by Wednesday evening, Senator Manchin had reversed course, reaching a deal with the Democratic majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, on a sweeping package of health-care, energy and climate measures, reviving the possibility of a Senate vote on the climate bill as soon as next week. Still, Biden’s latest slate of executive actions, which garnered little public attention, are poised to help cut electricity costs and broaden the accessibility of solar power.
The announcement comes as punishing heat waves have descended upon tens of millions of Americans this summer, causing demand for electricity to boom. At the same time, a worldwide energy crisis has driven up fossil fuel prices, including natural gas, the top source of electricity in the U.S.
Under Biden’s action on Wednesday to lower home electricity costs, a new program through the Department of Housing and Urban Development would connect residents in subsidized housing to community solar power, opening access to solar for renters, who are often unable to make the switch to renewable power, even if they want to. Community solar power typically relies on a shared solar farm. Members subscribe to an array of solar panels in their region and receive credits for the energy generated, which shaves costs off their bills. The White House thinks the initiative could connect as many as 4.5 million homes to solar, saving them an average of 10 percent on electricity bills each year.
Low-income households typically spend much more of their income on electricity costs than their higher-earning counterparts — a burden that comes from living in homes that often lack insulation or have older appliances. According to the Department of Energy, low-income households spend 8.6 percent of their total income on energy bills, while non-low-income households spend around 3 percent.
“The combination of extreme heat and rising utility prices creates a perfect storm, and HUD-assisted families and communities are some of the most vulnerable,” said HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, in a release. The new program, she said, “will not only help families reduce utility costs, but also provide an opportunity for HUD-assisted residents to participate in the clean energy economy.”
Biden’s announcement on Wednesday also included another HUD program that will help rural housing authorities take on energy efficiency upgrades in rental housing, while a Department of Energy workforce program, using $10 million from the infrastructure package passed by Congress last year, is aimed at creating more jobs and bringing employees from underrepresented communities into the solar industry.
Heat continues to roil the Pacific Northwest and Southeast, with record highs expected through the rest of the week. On heat.gov, the Biden administration’s new website dedicated to heatwave safety, visitors can find information on their local conditions, as well as tips on staying cool and safe during a heatwave. If someone is experiencing heat cramps, the site says, they should cease physical activity and drink water. If cramps continue past an hour, they should seek medical help. Extreme heat is a growing public health threat that causes or contributes to some 700 deaths each year.
Thousands of emergency workers in California struggled to fight a rapidly growing wildfire near Yosemite National Park on Sunday as President Joe Biden continued to mull whether to declare a national climate emergency, a move that campaigners say is needed to respond to the immediate threat of extreme weather and lay the groundwork for a livable future.
Dubbed the Oak Fire, the California blaze was completely uncontained as of Sunday afternoon, having tripled in size since it began on Friday. The fire has now burned more than 14,000 acres, making it California’s largest wildfire of the season.
“Explosive fire behavior is challenging firefighters,” Cal Fire said in a statement Saturday, characterizing the blaze as “extreme with frequent runs, spot fires, and group torching.” Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for Mariposa County on Saturday as authorities urged thousands in the potential path of the fire to evacuate immediately.
Climate scientists have long warned that drought, extreme heat, and other conditions driven by planetary warming could make wildfires more frequent and intense. A United Nations report published earlier this year raised the specter of an ever-worsening “global wildfire crisis” if governments across the globe — particularly the rich nations most responsible for carbon emissions — don’t radically alter their energy policies and phase out fossil fuel use.
California is hardly alone in experiencing devastating wildfires in the present. Reutersreported Sunday that “Greek firefighters battled wildfires on the island of Lesbos for a second day on Sunday as well as new fires in the western Peloponnese and in northern Greece, evacuating nearby settlements as a heatwave set in.”
“Temperatures hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in parts of Greece on Sunday as a heatwave that has hit other parts of Europe spread east and was expected to last for most of the coming week,” the outlet noted. “In the north of the country, a wildfire continued to ravage a pristine forest near Dadia, a natural habitat for black vultures, burning for a fourth day as authorities struggled to contain its destruction.”
Firefighters across Europe are fighting wildfires as a heatwave sweeps across the continent.
France has evacuated thousands of people with fires also spreading in Spain, Croatia and Greece.
Amid what experts have described as mounting real-time evidence of the dangers of climate inaction, Biden is still in the process of deciding whether to declare a national climate emergency, a step that would free up key federal authorities and resources to accelerate the country’s renewable energy transition.
Last week, in a speech in front of a shuttered coal plant in Massachusetts, Biden pledged action to protect U.S. communities from scorching heat and other impacts of the climate crisis. The president also vowed to expand offshore wind development.
But while he said climate change represents “a clear and present danger,” Biden did not use his speech to declare a climate emergency, sparking backlash from environmentalists who have been pushing him to do so since last year.
“The world’s burning up from California to Croatia, and right now Biden’s fighting fire with the trickle from a garden hose,” lamented Jean Su, director of the Energy Justice Program at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Saying we’re in a climate emergency and declaring one under the law are totally different things. Declaring a climate emergency will unleash the full force of Biden’s executive powers to combat climate chaos and signal the climate leadership we so desperately need.”
In an interview with the BBC on Sunday, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said that Biden is weighing a climate emergency declaration as Congress — obstructed by a fossil fuel industry ally in the Senate — fails to act and as the U.S. Supreme Court takes aim at the federal government’s regulatory capacity.
Facing growing pressure from progressive lawmakers and climate organizations, Biden said last week that he’s “running the traps on the authority that I do have” and “will make a decision on [the emergency declaration] soon.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), one of nine senators who implored Biden to issue the declaration last week, said Sunday that the move would “unlock powerful tools to help safeguard our planet and make our economy stronger.”
“Climate change is the biggest existential threat facing our planet,” Warren added. “That’s why I joined my colleagues in urging the president to declare the climate crisis the national emergency that it is.”