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Category: global warming

  • Permafrost Showdown

    “Deep below the glistening surface of a frozen Arctic lake, something is bubbling—something that could cause global warming to accelerate beyond all previous projections… Now the freezer door is opening, releasing the carbon into Arctic lake bottoms. Microbes digest it, convert it to methane, and the lakes essentially burp out methane.’ Scientists estimate that permafrost holds up to 950 billion tons of carbon. As it thaws, 50 billion tons of methane could enter the atmosphere from Siberian lakes alone. That’s ten times more methane than the atmosphere holds right now,” (Katey Walter Anthony, biogeochemist, National Geographic Explorer Since 2011)

    Rapid warming of Arctic permafrost has brought a significant threat to all life forms. Consequently, The Royal Society (est. 1660) felt compelled to support publication of a new video that exposes this threat: What Happens When the Permafrost Thaws? BBC in partnership with The Royal Society by Daniel Nils Roberts, British-Norwegian director, April 15, 2024.

    “Thermokarst lakes (formed when permafrost melts) are projected to release approximately 40% of ancient permafrost soil carbon emissions this century.” (Source: K.M. Walter Anthony, et al, “Decadal-scale Hotspot Methane Ebullition Withing Lakes Following Abrupt Permafrost Thaw”, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2021).

    “The Tibetan Plateau is the largest alpine permafrost region in the world, accounting for approximately 75% of the total alpine permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere. Similar to high-latitude permafrost regions, this region has experienced fast climate warming and extensive permafrost thaw, which has triggered the widespread expansion of thermokarst lakes and other types of abrupt permafrost thaw. The number of thermokarst lakes in this permafrost region is estimated to be 161,300.” (Source: Guibiao Yang, et al, “Characteristics of Methane Emissions from Alpine Thermokarst Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau”, Nature Communications 14, Article No. 3121, 2023).

    Ecosystems throughout the planet are rapidly transforming because of human-generated global warming. After all, what does the formation of 161,300 thermokarst lakes in only the Alpine permafrost region alone say about the impact of global warming?

    Scientists are expressing renewed concerns about monster climate events lurking beneath the frozen ground of permafrost, which is 15% of the exposed land surface of the Northern Hemisphere (MIT Climate Portal). And monsters lurk above solid grounding in Antarctic glacial formations, starting to fracture as fissures widen like ogres of the deep.

    From the Arctic to Antarctica the planet is sagging, dripping, slouching, changing the face of 10,000 years of nature coexisting with humanity side-by-side until only recently as it transforms into an adversarial relationship. Permafrost ranks alongside the Arctic, Antarctica, Greenland, The Great Barrier Reef, and the world’s three largest rainforests as the most important determinates of this changing future. Within permafrost’s confines exist thousands of years of latent ingredients that have the potential to set the world on fire. Its impact could be transcendent.

    “Most of Earth’s near-surface permafrost could be gone by 2100, an international team of scientists has concluded after comparing current climate trends to the planet’s climate 3 million years ago… The team found that the amount of near-surface permafrost could drop by 93% compared to the preindustrial period of 1850 to 1900. That’s under the most extreme warming scenario in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” (Source: Study: “Near Surface Permafrost Will Be Nearly Gone by 2100″, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, September 15, 2023).

    What Happens When the Permafrost Thaws (the film): “Permafrost is of huge importance to the entire planet… including one-half of Canada and two-thirds of Russia… and the Tibetan Plateau… permafrost is rock, sediment or ice that remains at or below zero degrees Celsius for two or more consecutive years… depending upon where it is found, permafrost can be millions of years old.”

    Interviews in the What Happens film, living in permafrost regions, like Svalbard, Norway, when discussing noticeable climate change: “This kind of weather, it’s not supposed to be like this in October, it’s supposed to be minus 15°, clear, dry climate, and it’s not. It’s a rainstorm.”

    As a result of abnormal climate behavior, especially where permafrost hangs out, the “active layer” of permafrost is getting deeper and deeper throughout the world. This is bad news. This creates more and more exposure to thousands of years of accumulation of “who knows what?”  It’s happening at a fast enough rate now that it could expose 10,000,000 woolly mammoths (a very rough estimate by somebody?) as well as ancient viruses, and who knows what else?

    Moreover, aside from 10,000,000 woolly mammoth skeletons with some of them kinda well-preserved skin, fur, etc., a unique study claims up to 20,000 toxic contamination sites could be exposed: “Here we identify about 4500 industrial sites where potentially hazardous substances are actively handled or stored in the permafrost-dominated regions of the Arctic. Furthermore, we estimate that between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are related to these industrial sites.”  (Source: Moritz Langer, et al, “Thawing Permafrost Poses Environmental Threat to Thousands of Sites with Legacy Industrial Contamination”, Nature Communications, March 28, 2023).

    “But there’s something else that concerns scientists much more. The scariest thing that is happening with permafrost is what it is doing to the climate itself… permafrost acts as a storage… it locks up the carbon from dead vegetation quite effectively, and it’s accumulated over many thousands of years.” (What Happens).

    Now, the freezer door is open. Nobody knows for sure what’ll come through. But the biggest concern is permafrost competing with human-driven carbon emissions like CO2. This could drive global warming to unspeakable levels.

    “There’s estimated to be four times the amount of carbon in permafrost than all the human-generated CO2 emissions in modern history. The release into the atmosphere of even a fraction of this as carbon dioxide and methane will have a profound impact on the climate.” (What Happens)

    “What can be done” is an open question that’s semi-addressed in the film What Happens: We can make more informed decisions and build communities that are resilient to changes, highlighted by the ways that humans are entangled with nature. In other words, adaptation is the most realistic solution, other than stopping fossil fuels, which is not happening.

    Meanwhile, the backup position to frustration over ongoing CO2 emissions that are continuing to ratchet up, now at all-time highs, scientists are increasingly calling for “adaptation to climate change” instead of pounding the table for a halt to emissions. For example, a recent report by the prestigious Columbia Climate School makes the case: “Experts are warning that policymakers should consider adaptation to sea-level rise a primary concern.” But, how to adapt to permafrost thaw is an altogether different matter… the most challenging of all.

    In truth, climate change is far ahead of schedule, as scientific models of yesteryear look like distant history. It’s likely that history will designate the 21st century “The Age of Adaptation” by default as countries react, after the fact, to collapsing ecosystems, which guarantees a future full of surprises beyond wildest imagination.

    There are scientists who believe permafrost thawing will accelerate global warming beyond the comfort zone of life in several regions of the planet; in fact, it’s already very close to a large scale event in Pakistan, India’s Indus River Valley, eastern China, and sub-Saharan Africa.

    Still, regardless of circumstances, finding a way forward to the future is in the lifeblood of humanity. In that regard, there is some good news (kinda good): According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) renewables will meet 35% of “global power generation” by 2025, thus a significant rise in CO2 emissions from global power activity is unlikely over the next few years. However, global power generation is not the full enchilada of world energy: Along those lines, coal consumption is expected to drop 13.5% by 2030 but natural gas and oil will both rise as renewables, alongside fossil fuels, experience strong growth to meet increasing levels of demand. According to the IEA, fossil fuels will still account for 70% of world energy, down from today’s 82%, by 2030. This is progress but is it too slow, not enough soon enough? Moreover, and as endorsed by several oil CEOs, the IEA expects oil supply to remain robust into 2050. Hmm -global warming is all about excessive levels of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Those emissions are not going away anytime soon, which will please the permafrost thawing gods.

    As for US influence to lessen the impact of permafrost thawing, although not expressly stated as such in the legislative bill, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides $370 billion in clean energy investments. But can Biden’s IRA survive political wars? Is IRA bulletproof? More importantly, is it enough soon enough?

    According to Barron’s d/d April 1, 2024: “Trump Is Taking Aim at Biden’s Climate Law”: He calls it a waste of money, and instead, has promised oil and gas CEOs favorable treatment, including scrapping Biden’s IRA, if elected, assuming they pony-up $1 billion for his campaign. Is this a bribe? It’s MAGA’s BMGW “Buy More Global Warming” to subsidize thawing of permafrost.

    The post Permafrost Showdown first appeared on Dissident Voice.

    This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.

  • Surprising Rising Seas “Must Reads”

    Sea levels are surging along the US coastline, exceeding 30-year expectations. Scientists are confused, concerned, searching for answers.

    In that regard, an excellent new series by The Washington Post d/d April 29th, 2024, “Must Reads” is an eye-opening view into the impact of global warming in real time with real people and real images. For example, it’s a quick fix for anybody who doubts human-caused climate change influence on sea level rise. It’s real; it’s happening now; it should be required reading for America’s Congressional climate deniers.

    And required reading for 50 million Americans who do not believe in climate change/global warming, according to a new University of Michigan study. Meanwhile a diametrically opposing viewpoint: “Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds.” (Source: “World’s Top Climate Scientists Expect Global Heating to Blast Past 1.5C Target”, The Guardian, May 8, 2024.)

    As a prelude to the 2024 elections, it should be noted: “When former President Donald Trump exited the Oval Office in January 2021, he left behind a record of environmental roll backs unrivaled in U.S. History.” Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 playbook will do more: “MAGA Republicans Have a 920-Page Plan to Make Climate Change Worse”, Heatmap News, February 15, 2024.

    Here’s the opening tickler for the thought-provoking “Must Reads” series: “This past week, The Post published the first two pieces in a new series showcasing an alarming phenomenon confronting tens of millions of Americans from Texas to North Carolina: The ocean is rising across the South faster than almost anywhere. In some communities, roads increasingly are falling below the highest tides, leaving drivers stuck in repeated delays or forcing them to slog through salt water to reach homes, schools, work, and places of worship. Researchers and public officials fear that in certain places, rising waters could periodically cut off residents from essential services such as medical aid.”

    A 2023 Scientific American article: “U.S. Seas Are Rising at Triple the Global Average” conforms to the inescapable conclusion of a need for sirens and flashing red lights to signal the dangers imbedded in Must Reads: “Sea levels have surged along the coastlines of the southeastern United States, new research finds — hitting some of their highest rates in more than a century… the effect on communities near the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean already are being observed.”

    Alarmingly, sea-level rise of the Southeast and the Gulf already exceed scientific models projected for the next 30 years, prompting a mad scramble by scientists looking for answers to why sea levels are 30 years ahead of schedule. Nobody is braced for this happening so fast.

    “The recent Journal of Climate study suggested that the increase may be driven by changes in a warm-water current passing through the Gulf of Mexico. And these changes may in turn be fueled by a recent slowdown in a major Atlantic Ocean current, driven by human-caused climate change.” (Ibid.)

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -NOAA– high-tide flooding along the Gulf and East coasts has increased considerably: High-tide flooding days are up 400% in the Southeast and 1,100% in the Gulf since 2000. It’s no wonder that property insurance premiums are spiking, and shorelines are slipping. It’s real; it’s happening now.

    Solutions: Adapt to Sea Levels and Mitigate CO2 to Avoid Worst-Case

    What to do: According to Sönke Dangendorf, an expert in coastal engineering at Tulane University and lead author of the new study: “We need to prepare for that: we need to adapt.” (Ibid.)

    A new study authored by Lily Roberts at State of the Planet, Columbia Climate School, “Increase in West Antarctica Ice Sheet Melting Inevitable in 21st Century” d/d January 26, 2024, emphasizes the necessity for adaptation measures to combat sea level rise: “The new findings paint a grave picture for the state of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. We may now have limited capacity to stop ice-shelf collapse in the region and prevent meters of global sea-level rise. Experts are warning that policymakers should consider adaptation to sea-level rise a primary concern, as the window to safeguard the ice sheet from irreversible damage has probably now passed…. This new research paints a more realistic picture for the fate of Antarctic ice shelves and highlights the necessity for continued mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the worst-case ocean warming scenario, as well as the urgent need for prioritization of adaptation to global sea-level rise.”

    Adapting to rising sea levels entails moving physical structures away from coastal areas exposed to loss of shorelines and building massive sea walls, begging the all-important question of whether it’s already too late to stop, full stop, greenhouse gas CO2 emissions produced by oil and gas companies, which, in turn, causes global warming and sea level rise. What to do and how soon to do it is a nagging issue that requires immediate attention at the highest levels. Unless, of course, people simply don’t give a damn and let the chips fall where they may, aka: “avoidance coping.”

    Furthermore, compounding the issue for the US, it’s not only the Southeastern and Gulf coasts, but also happening in Maine: “What were once distant projections on TV and in newspapers have now made it to the doorsteps of thousands of coastal residents in Maine: sea levels are rising at an alarming rate, with some areas in the state experiencing water levels eight inches higher than what they were in 1950. Estimates show that sea level rise will only continue to accelerate in coming decades.” (Source: “Manomet Awarded New Funding To Study Sea Level Rise Impacts On Maine’s Coastal Communities”, The Manomet Team, January 25, 2023).

    Humanity is smack dab in the early stages of a man-made climate crisis that’s just now starting to strut its stuff in open public The question remains whether a self-induced climate crisis can be self-reduced, but in all honesty and by all appearances, world leadership prefers to continue playing Russian roulette with a single round of fossil fuels. CO2 emissions are 76% of greenhouse gases that cause overheating of the planet, and CO2’s primary source is oil and gas production, which clearly presents the dilemma of all dilemmas.

    What to do? And when is it too late? And is it possible to live without oil and gas production?

    Humanity did live without oil and gas production for thousands of years pre-Colonel Drake’s heralded discovery of oil in Pennsylvania in 1859 (world population 1.2 billion at the time) that set the stage for a new oil economy. Going forward, can an overcrowding 8.1 billion world civilization exist without oil and gas production, and more importantly, can 8.1B survive with it?

    It’s notable that climate scientists say halting CO2 emissions will slow the rate of increase of planetary heat. Thus, things can be done to alleviate the impact of global warming so that it’s not as horribly bad as it is without any mitigation whatsoever. Less horrible is good.

    Meanwhile… HOUSTON — “Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday that the energy transition is failing, and policymakers should abandon the ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil and gas, as demand for fossil fuels is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.” (Source: “Saudi Aramco CEO Says Energy Transition is Failing, World Should Abandon ‘Fantasy’ of Phasing Out Oil”, CNBC News, March 18, 2024).

    Really? Seriously? Amin who?

    Because international oil and gas interests plan on increasing production, by a lot, which is accepted by world leaders with open arms, there’s no stopping a sure-fire rapid rate of sea level never witnessed before. The Global Oil and Gas Tracker claims: “Fourfold Increase in New Oil and Gas Fields to Push Climate Further From 1.5°C Pathway”.

    Assuming all-above plays out as described, meaning oil and gas producers pump full-blast like psychopaths with a death wish, the only option left is building massive sea walls, re-introducing medieval fortifications throughout the world, a throwback to the 5th-14th centuries when horse-drawn four-wheeled carts and walking were the modes of transportation, thereby establishing Net Zero once and for all.

    The post Surprising Rising Seas “Must Reads” first appeared on Dissident Voice.

    This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.

  • Parasites, Often Miscast as Villains, Are Ecologically Critical — and Declining

    When Chelsea Wood was a child, she would often collect Periwinkle snails on the shores of Long Island. “I used to pluck them off the rocks and put them in buckets and keep them as pets and then re-release them,” Wood said. “And I knew that species really well.” It wasn’t until years later that Wood learned that those snails were teeming with parasites. “In some populations, 100 percent of them are…

    Source

    This post was originally published on Latest – Truthout.

  • Scientists Warn Climate Change Is to Blame for Brazil’s Worst Floods in 80 Years

    Devastating floods in the south Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul have killed dozens of people and displaced thousands more over the past several days, in one of the most catastrophic natural disasters the country has seen in decades. As of Tuesday evening, 90 people were reported dead in the region, a number that is expected to increase substantially in the coming days. More rain was expected…

    Source

    This post was originally published on Latest – Truthout.

  • The Heat’s On Big Time!

    “Nearly nineteen thousand (19,000) weather stations have notched record high temperatures since Jan. 1.” (Source: “Earth’s Record Hot Streak Might be a Sign of a New Climate Era”, The Washington Post, April 19, 2024).

    A blistering start to the 2024 year is breaking all-time global temperature records of 2023 and bringing to the forefront a looming threat of Wet Bulb temperature concerns.

    Even though summer ‘24 has not officially begun for the Northern Hemisphere (solstice June 20th), according to DW News (German public broadcast network) d/d April 25th, 2024, “Extreme Heat in Southeast Asia Leads to School Closures”:

    Hundreds of millions of people across South and Southeast Asia are facing soaring temperatures and drought as a heatwave grips the region. Dozens have been killed by heatstroke in Thailand alone. Authorities in the capital Bangkok are warning their citizens of the ‘extremely dangerous’ conditions. Schools have been closed in the Philippines and Bangladesh for tens of millions of children and the daytime temperature in Myanmar has reached nearly 46 degrees Celsius. The UN has warned that deaths due to heatstroke were widely underreported, calling heat a ‘silent killer.

    Throughout several regions:

    Soaring heat and drought have been felt in recent weeks from India, which is carrying out the world’s largest election in temperatures that have risen above 40C, to the coffee plantations of Vietnam… Earlier this month, the United Nations Children’s Fund warned that more than 243 million children across East Asia and the Pacific are at risk of heat-related illnesses and death, as the region braces for an unusually hot summer… The prolonged heat wave already forced the Philippines to close some schools earlier this month, prompting a return to remote learning that became the norm during Covid, while the government urged people to save electricity as power plants were forced to shut down. (Source: “Southeast Asia Heat Wave Shuts down Schools, Stokes Power Demand“, Bloomberg News, April 28, 2024).

    “Japan Launches New Alert System as Heat Stroke Deaths Rise”, JapanToday, April 25, 2024: “When the alert is issued, municipalities will open designated facilities such as libraries and community centers to residents as ‘cooling shelters.’ The system will be in effect through Oct 23 this year…The nation’s average temperature in the summer of 2023 was the highest since the Japan Meteorological agency began recording comparable data in 1898.

    The Wet Bulb Temperature Peril

    The Wet Bulb temperature effect is a killer that is unfortunately gaining new respect.

    New research suggests that with Wet Bulb temperature above 31.5C the body can no longer cool itself and without air conditioning death follows. (Source: “Policy Watch: Countries Slow to Wake up to the Mounting Deaths from Heat Stress“, Reuters, March 18, 2024).

    In that regard, Wet Bulb temperature (which was formerly calcuated to be 35C or approximately 95°F/100% humidity) based upon new research can now occur at 31.5C in a range of temperature/humidity configurations: 87°F/100% humidity to 100°F/60% humidity. This means the Wet Bulb temperature barrier is lower and more of a threat than previously thought.

    For an interesting, yet gruesome, aside about the risks of human death caused by Wet Bulb temperatures, Andrew Forrest, founder of Australian mining giant Fortescue, attended COP28 in Dubai last year to press politicians to take the Wet Bulb threat seriously:

    If our bodies can’t release the heat, then our bodies turn into ovens and they start to cook – our blood, our organs, and, of course, the proteins which our lives depend on. They basically can never come back, it’s like cooking an egg,” he told The Ethical Corporation. “That is what is going to make increasingly large parts of the world beyond the limits of human survival. (Ibid.)

    Human migration, an ongoing worldwide phenomenon, is but one symptom of this devastating risk to human life.

    According to EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), March 2024 was the 10th straight month of record global heat at 1.68°C hotter than an average March between years 1850-1900, which is a reference period for pre-industrial.

    For perspective of too much heat, if monthly all-time record heat is continued year-by-year the final result is Venus, aka: “Earth’s Twin” or “Earth’s Sister Planet.” According to NASA, Venus formed in the same inner part of the solar system as Earth out of the same materials and similar in size but, over time, with a different atmosphere. Venus has a thick carbon dioxide -CO2- atmosphere that has a powerful greenhouse effect resulting in scorching temperatures over 900°F or hot enough to melt lead.

    Here on Earth, with one eye on Venus, climate scientists have warned about global warming for decades; however, those warnings have been low and not taken seriously enough. But with fossil fuel CO2 emissions now at full blast, in fact, quadrupling, as oil and gas companies crank up production, given enough time, the entire planet turns into a gigantic heat ball right before everybody’s eyes. Hello Venus.

    At the Paris 2015 climate conference, delegates from around the world agreed that measures had to be taken to hold global average temperatures under 1.5°C above pre-industrial or suffer challenging consequences. At the time, nobody thought the 1.5C limit would be hit as early as 2024 and before global implementation of effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions, which measures, by the way, are a big farce, as CO2 emissions steadfastly increase by the year, and now accelerating, in the face of every mitigation measure adopted to date. Moreover, the often-discussed hopeful lifeline Carbon Capture & Sequestration unfortunately is not a viable solution. Al Gore calls it “a fraud” and for good reason.

    Meanwhile, the outlook for global warming is bleak. (It should be noted that the IPCC calculates the 1.5C barrier on a decadal basis, but so what? It’s a big problem right now.)

    In January 2024 AP News carried the following article: “Earth Shattered Global Heat Record in ’23 and it’s Flirting with Warming Limit European Agency Says”:

    On average, global temperatures in 2023 were 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial times. If annual averages reach above 1.5 degrees Celsius, the effects of global warming could become irreversible, climate scientists say.

    Humanity has pushed the planet to a limit that climate scientists warned about for decades; e.g., Dr. James Hansen, former head of NASA Space Studies, in 1988 warned the US Senate that human influence was changing the chemistry of the atmosphere that would bring global warming. He was spot on. (“Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate”, The New York Times, June 24, 1988).

    Now, 36 years later, there are politicians at the highest levels of government in Washington, D.C. who still deny the reality of human-caused global warming. Canada’s National Observer has taken notice: “Climate Denial in American Politics” d/d March 28, 2024:

    Climate denial is a sinister movement that denies the science of climate change that has infiltrated deep within American politics and is still thriving today. The widespread oppression of science in America is a rarity in modern history — with the exceptions of Germany and Russia during the 1930s — and has never been seen before in a democracy to this extent.

    Sinister! Germany 1930s! Some words stick with you.

    The environment and energy portfolios of Trump’s administration appeared to be puppets under the control of the “oiligarchs” — the powerful among the energy-industrial complex. As an American election looms later this year, the thought of another Trump presidency sends shivers down the spines of many in the scientific community… This alternate reality is built on alternate facts and alternate science (i.e., fake). We have been too tolerant for too long of this deviant behaviour by elected officials; the time to vote these politicians out of office is long overdue. (Ibid.)

    According to CO2.Earth: “A reminder that our world is pushing the planet’s thermostat beyond safe levels at 350 ppm CO2, and that more people are needed to combine our ingenuity and resources to keep the present overshoot brief”:

    April 26, 2024        428.59 ppm

    April 26, 2023        424.34 ppm

    April 26, 1974         333.20 ppm

    Good luck with that because the last time CO2 was at a safe level was 50 years ago. The only way to return to 350 is to cut CO2 emissions, but CO2 emissions have never been so robust.

     When it comes to knowledge about climate change, Americans are embarrassingly ignorant:

    If you live in the U.S. and happen to get most of your news from national broadcast channels ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox… During the record-smashing year of 2023, these four TV stations spent less than 1% of their news time addressing climate change.” (Source: “Here’s What Record-Breaking Temperatures Looked Like Around the Globe, Yale Climate Connections, April 29, 2024).

     One year ago, the favorite web site for the White House and lawmakers, The Hill article said:

    When it comes to the ‘wet bulb temperature’ nearly all of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas are under ‘extreme threat. (Source: “Extreme Threat”: Large Swathe of Southern US at Dangerous ‘Wet Bulb Temperature’”, The Hill, June 29, 2023).

    How are the congressional delegations and state politicos from Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas doing with the climate change/global warming issue?

    The post The Heat’s On Big Time! first appeared on Dissident Voice.

    This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.

  • Helter Swelter

    In various and fluctuating levels of awareness, we knew this was coming.

    Rivers ceased to flow. Lakes and reservoirs dropped to record-low levels or dried up altogether. Maybe not every year in every region, but pretty regularly over the last decade. Then, Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Panhandle this past February—the largest wildfire in Texas history.

    In 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature of the Earth through the greenhouse effect. In 1938, English steam engineer (and amateur climate scientist) Guy Callendar began gathering climate records from almost 150 weather stations around the world. From this data—and completing all the calculations by hand—he demonstrated that global temperatures had risen 0.3°C over the previous half-century (which roughly parallelled the Second Industrial Revolution and its short-term repercussions). Callendar suggested that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes were responsible for planetary warming, but his ideas were dismissed because other scientists refused to accept the premise that human beings might be capable of drastically impacting the environment.

    Callendar’s rudimentary estimates of climate change subsequently proved to be remarkably accurate and consistent with modern assessments. But the term “global warming” didn’t appear until a Science journal article published on August 8, 1975. Titled “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?”, it was written by American geochemist Wallace Smith Broecker.

    It sent up red flags in Big Oil boardrooms from sea to shining sea.

    American corporatists pre-empted public concerns by funding studies disproving serious analysis of Global Warming and Climate Change and favoring reports that underemphasized what was a stake. But for anyone who was really paying attention, the truth was obvious.

    The truth, however, was a liability.

    Now, coming up on fifty years later, the truth is more accessible than ever, but no one wants to address it. And Texas is at the forefront of American heedlessness.

    Just this past Earth Day, April 22, 2024, the Texas A & M Office of the Texas State Climatologist issued a report titled “Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036.” In 40+ pages, this report predicts that for the next twelve years, things will be hotter and dryer, and wildfires will get worse and expand eastward. Meanwhile, the seas in the Gulf of Mexico will rise and the Gulf storms will become larger and more frequent. And winter as a season, at least, will wither, shrink and occasionally disappear.

    Unless—as those pesky folks who are paying attention, again, wonder—Global Warming hastens the next Ice Age. Then, the planet will enjoy winter all year long for centuries.

    But who cares when profits are up!

    As of August 2023, Texas was responsible for 42% of total United States crude oil production. As of October 2023, Texas was responsible for 43% of all the natural gas produced in America. Also, as of October 2023, Texas was producing 52% of the nation’s exportable natural gas liquids.

    No wonder so many Texans walk around with guns.

    Like William Barret Travis, Lone Star legend of old, Texans have drawn a line in the sand. But this time we’re behaving more like Charlie Manson than Travis, vowing to normalize heat death and defend a super-sized Alamo constructed from hundreds of thousands of tons of plastic that lie in the 620,000-square-mile Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch—which is, of course, an obscenely profitable derivative of fractional crude oil distillation.

    So, let’s not be coy. Texas has made gazillions from trickle-down ecocide, and we have no plans to quit. Heck, you and I even enjoy front row seats. We knew this was coming.

    We just didn’t want to deal with it. Hell, we still have political leaders and pundits who refuse to acknowledge what’s even happening. So, by proxy, they’re arguably straight-facedly orchestrating this hellishness—but they will never be held responsible for it. And they definitely won’t be the ones sweating or burning or dying as a result.

    But why extend the Texas State Climatologist Earth Day report only through 2036?

    Even Travis knows the “official” answer to that.

    The year 2036 marks the 200th anniversary of Texas Independence. Unofficially, however, conditions project to get so much worse by 2050 that truncating the truth with a historical cap was probably all the powers that be could stomach.

    Capitalism is a flame-thrower and, in the end, we’ll be reduced to cinder by corporate greed or frozen to death by our own mad obliviousness.

    The post Helter Swelter first appeared on Dissident Voice.

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  • Ocean Heat Pummels the Great Barrier Reef, Again

    It’s never been so bad.

    The Great Barrier Reef, which is one of nature’s most iconic mosaics of biodiversity, is on the ropes because of extreme global warming. Coral bleaching at the World Heritage-listed reef is “experiencing its worst mass bleaching event on record.”

    — Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is ‘Transforming’ from Repeated Coral Bleaching, Nature, April 19, 2024.

    Subtitle to the article:

    — The coral reef is currently experiencing its worst mass bleaching event on record — warming waters brought on by climate change are to blame.

    This is deadly serious business and could spin out of control unless, and until, according to marine biologist Terry Hughes, James Cook University, Australia (world class marine research): “The solution to the Great Barrier Reef’s bleaching problem is clear. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Full stop.”

    The good news/bad news is coral can recover from bleaching if the stress causing the bleaching diminishes; however, the entire globe is fast approaching non-stop repeating frequency of unchecked severity, meaning coral mortality is at stake like never before; consequences would be devastating. Coral mortality is on the line. Then, there is no recovery.

    Coral reefs are called “the rainforests of the sea” and host 25% of all ocean species. Hard Coral, the building blocks of reefs, can live for more than 4,000 years.

    Greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately cause bleaching are on track to quadruple via oil and gas production. According to Global Energy Monitor, oil and gas companies plan on quadrupling output by 2030. And according to Carbon Tracker (CT), every oil and gas company has flunked the CT grading system by not coming close to aligning with the central goals of a severely compromised Paris 2015 climate agreement that insists upon nation/states cutting greenhouse gas emissions, like CO2, sharply by 2030 to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050, which is as dead as a doornail ever since fossil fuel companies took control of the International Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, thus orchestrating a grand PR scheme “we’re onside with climate science” which is really truly a grand deception; e.g., the leader of Saudi Aramco at a recent oil conference in Texas said the world should “abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.”

    Meanwhile, unprecedented bleaching is very similar to ongoing degradation of the Amazon Rainforest that’s caused by drought sequences occurring too severely, too often, another casualty of global warming. According to NASA:

    — Amazon Rainforest is Drying Out. How Much More Abuse Can It Take?  DownToEarth

    Humanity is in the midst of massive pre-disaster warnings of ecosystem crashing events on a global scale never witnessed before (check-out geophysicist Bill McGuire’s warning at the end, herein), but it happens where nobody lives and thus does not impact society enough, not yet, to take charge to do something constructive. Thus, the bane of modern-day society’s artificial environments; i.e., concrete, glass, asphalt, steel, fabricated wood, aluminum, chemical textiles, all not connected to nature. People do not connect with impending danger found throughout the planet in nature’s wilderness. They do not live where nature carries a burden that highlights human ignorance.

    According to geophysicist Bill McGuire, it’s time to face up to the harsh reality that the global warming curse is attacking/degrading the planet’s most sacred, most iconic natural ecosystems. Portions of the Amazon Rainforest are now emitting CO2 in competition with fossil fuels at the same time as severe bleaching mortality, like the Grim Reaper, stares down at the Great Barrier Reef.

    The extraordinary bleaching event is global; it’s not only the Great Barrier Reef; it’s everywhere on the planet and deeply concerning, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA:

    From February 2023 to April 2024, significant coral bleaching has been documented in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of each major ocean basin, according to Derek Manzello, Ph.D., NOAA CRW coordinator.

    — NOAA Confirms 4th Global Coral Bleaching Event, NOAA.gov, April 15, 2024.

    Coral bleaching, when stressed, expels colorful resident zooxanthellae. According to a report released on 17 April by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, the Australian government’s reef management agency, the reef is experiencing its worst mass bleaching event on record. The Reef Snapshot claims three-quarters of the entire reef is showing signs of bleaching and nearly 40 percent is showing high or extreme bleaching. The report is based on aerial surveys of 1,080 of the Great Barrier Reef’s estimated 3,000 individual reefs.

    We’ve never seen this level of heat stress across all three regions of the Great Barrier Reef, according to Brisbane-based marine biologist Lissa Schindler, the Australian Marine Conservation Society.

    — Ibid.

    The Great Barrier Reef is experiencing its 5th mass bleaching event in only 8 years. It’s now increasing in frequency. Over the past 6 years, bleaching has occurred every other year, 2020, 2022, 2024 with regularity. According to Terry Hughes of James Cook University, there’s not enough time for the reef to recover. This is getting deadly serious at the same time as fossil fuel companies crank up CO2 emissions by a factor of four.

    All of this is happening as global sea surface temperatures, the main protagonist, broke records in 2023: “There have been very high temperatures driven by climate change all across the world, and there has been coral bleaching in many other countries,” according to environmental scientist Roger Beeden, chief scientist for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

    Several respondents to articles like this have commented that oil is woven into the fabric of neoliberal capitalism so tightly that it’s hard to shake lose but not impossible.

    But how much longer can rainforests and coral reefs hold on?

    Of more than passing interests: According to a recent Futurism article: “Scientist Terrified by How the Climate is Falling Apart”, dated March 9, 2024: “We’re staring down the barrel of an impending climate crisis, and according to University College London geophysical and climate hazards professor Bill McGuire: ‘We should be absolutely terrified of what’s still to come.”

    In short, world leadership doesn’t know which way to turn next, like a deer in the headlights, meaning it’s incumbent upon climate scientists to tell it like it is to arouse the public: “Scientists are forced to ‘rouse the public’ to try and force through the enormous changes required to curb global heating… While those of us working in the climate science field know the true picture, and understand the implications for our world, most others do not. And this is a problem — a big one. That kind of gap in our knowledge could prove fatal, allowing narratives of climate denial to flourish.” (McGuire)

    According to McGuire, “fear is very much part of the equation, instead of relying on sanitized versions of the truth, informing the public of the cold hard facts could be transformative.”

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  • The Death of Paris ‘15

    The Paris climate agreement of 2015 set the standards for how nation/states must approach the net zero target year 2050 by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in stages, starting with major reductions by 2030.

    Paris ’15 is dead.

    According to a new report by Global Energy Monitor of San Francisco, at least 20B barrels of oil equivalent has been discovered since the International Energy Agency statement of fact in 2021 that no new oil, gas, or coal development should proceed if the world is to reach net zero by 2050.

    Nevertheless, as of today, fossil fuel producers worldwide plan on quadrupling output from newly approved projects by 2030, diametrically opposite what was agreed upon at Paris ’15. Effectively, the much-heralded savior Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 is torn to shreds.

    Disregard for the agreement is even worse than first blush would indicate, to wit:

    Last year, at least 20 oil and gas fields were readied and approved for extraction following discovery, sanctioning the removal of 8bn barrels of oil equivalent. By the end of this decade, the report found, the fossil-fuel industry aims to sanction nearly four times this amount – 31bn barrels of oil equivalent – across 64 additional new oil and gas fields.

    — “Surge of New US-Led Oil and Gas Activity Threatens to Wreck Paris Climate Goals”, The Guardian, March 2024.

    Fossil fuel exploration and production is on a roll, on a high, indomitably conquering every warning by climate scientists of past decades. The big oil companies, in concert with the major developed nations, are flipping the bird at Paris ’15. It’s a worthless scrap of paper. They’re drilling and increasing production 4-fold, period!

    The United States leads the way. It has produced more crude oil than any country has in history for the past six years running. Nobody is outproducing America. Making matters even more poignantly difficult to swallow and pouring salt into the wound, the leader of Saudi Aramco at a recent conference in Texas said the world should “abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.”

    Meanwhile, it was recently reported that the senior producers are “way off track” on emissions goals that, from the start, were faux commitments with a wink and a grin. According to Carbon Tracker, production plans for the 25 largest oil and gas companies do not come close to aligning with the central goal of Paris ’15, which is now lifeless.

    Carbon Tracker’s Paris Alignment Scorecard reads like a lunatic gang of young druggies flunking out of high school. Letter grades run from A to H with each oil company failing. The highest ranking was a lowly D. And every company plans on expansion of oil and gas production, near term. Making matters even worse, according to Carbon Tracker, oil and gas companies are reneging on prior climate commitments. No big surprise there.

    All of this is now coming out into the open in the aftermath of COP28 (UN climate change conference) held in Dubai last year, an event designed and led by fossil fuel interests. How could the UN and associated scientists be so fooled, publicly ridiculed, allowing the fossil fuel industry to hijack their most important UN climate change conference?

    Now that the oil and gas industry has hijacked UN climate change conferences, it should come as no surprise that COP29 in 2024 will be held in the Azerbaijani capital city Baku. Azerbaijan has been an oil producer for over 100 years as one of the world’s top producers with fossil fuels responsible for over 90% of the country’s exports, providing two-thirds of its state budget.

    According to analysts at Rystad Energy, sourced by Global Witness, Azerbaijan plans to increase fossil fuel production by one-third over the next 10 years. (The Guardian) Meanwhile, in somewhat of a mixed message, the country claims to be an alternative energy leader in the world and plans on going to 30% renewables by 2030, which is standard PR by oil companies nowadays.

    One wonders what this means for activists and climate scientists and UN climate conferences. Will the fossil fuel industry continue to dominate UN climate conferences? But, even more significantly, what does this mean for planetary global warming?

    A recent article in Space.com deals with the issue: “How The Runaway Greenhouse Gas Effect Can Destroy a Planet’s Habitability — Including Earth’s”, Space, com, December 19, 2023.

    Here’s the storyline:

    Using advanced computer simulations, scientists have shown how easily a runaway greenhouse effect can rapidly transform a habitable planet into a hellish world inhospitable to life.

    Here’s the hard part:

    The team of astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and CNRS laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux saw that after initial stages of a planet’s climate transformation, the planet’s atmosphere, structure, and cloud coverage get significantly altered, such that a difficult-to-halt runaway effect starts to commence. Alarmingly, this process could be initiated here on Earth with just a slight change in solar luminosity or by a global average temperature rise of just a few tens of degrees. Even those minor changes could lead to our planet becoming totally inhospitable.

    The brutal result is what’s called “a hellscape.” But no timeline is mentioned. It is just one of those things that might happen sometime in the future, hopefully, nobody lives to see it, or conversely, nobody lives.

    One thing is probably clear, by continuing to pump fossil fuels, enriching the atmosphere with one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, CO2 constituting 76% of all greenhouse gases, the odds and timing of the runaway greenhouse gas effect get closer by the day, and now, thanks to a new “let’s drill the hell out of it” attitude, faster than anybody realizes.

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  • Uncharted Territory Dead Ahead

    When America’s leading authority on the climate system Gavin Schmidt of NASA throws his hands up in the air, exclaiming, we’ve got a knowledge gap for the first time since satellites started tuning into the planet’s climate system, what does this imply about future conditions for the planet?

    Gavin Schmidt, Director, Goddard Institute for Space Studies: “In general, the 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first time since about 40 years ago, when satellite data began offering modellers an unparalleled, real-time view of Earth’s climate system.” (Gavin Schmidt,”Climate Models Can’t Explain 2023’s Huge Heat Anomaly – We Could be in Uncharted Territory“, Nature, March 19, 2024.)

    This admission by the nation’s top climate scientist, stating we may be in uncharted territory, is beyond disturbing, especially within the context of a chaotic climate system that, by all appearances, has gone haywire. Hopefully, it is only “an anomaly,” as stated by Dr. Schmidt because if it is the opposite, or a “new normal,” then big trouble is already at the doorstep. After all, 2023 was way beyond normal with an extraordinarily negative upward trajectory, but if it is now the new normal, what’s next?

    Already, current temperature trends are knocking the socks off previously much lower trends, in fact, setting new records one after another in rapid-fire succession; it’s obvious that something is seriously out of kilter.  March 2024 is the ninth consecutive month of record-setting heat, each month hotter, and according to NOAA scientists, ocean temperatures for 2023 were “off the charts.” Who’s guessing where this is headed?

    Radio Ecoshock by Alex Smith, broadcasting on 105 radio stations, is one of the best sources (a gem) when searching for answers as to what’s going on with the planet. A recent Radio Ecoshock headline addresses this burning issue head on: “Why So Hot So Fast?” Gavin Schmidt is interviewed d/d April 3, 2024. Radio Ecoshock’s  opening statement: “Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly – ‘we could be in uncharted territory.’  Meanwhile, so much ice is melting at the Poles, Earth’s rotation is changing.”

    That’s a mouthful that should rattle the cage of anybody who’s even the least bit concerned about the future of life support on Earth. Uncharted territory is not a welcomed concept in the context of a climate system that’s already off its rocker.

    The evidence of ongoing climate chaos is found as animals of all stripes head for the hills or overpower foreign frontiers for survival. Animals, wild ones as well as tame humans (?) catch the scent early when things change and migrate northward. This is a prime example of what’s behind America’s sticky migration issue. Central American environs are a hot house where crops don’t grow so well any longer. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2022 relative to 1991-2020 in central and eastern Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula and Guatemala and El Salvador registered +1°C to +3°C throughout the region. Whereas Paris ’15 set a key threshold holding temps to less than +1.5°C (but compared to 1850, not 1991) or trouble ensues. Well, the consequences of excessiveness are only too evident. One solution for too much heat – Migrate north. According to the US Institute of Peace: Climate change has disrupted up to 70% of crops in some regions of Central America. Solution – Move north. Germanwatch’s Global Climate Risk Index claims Honduras is the single most impacted country by climate change in the world over the past decade.

    According to the Council on Foreign Relations: “Climate migration occurs when people leave their homes due to extreme weather events, including floods, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires, as well as slower-moving climate challenges such as rising seas and intensifying water stress. This form of migration is increasing because the world has not been able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt global average temperature rise, which leads to more climate disasters.” (“Climate Change Is Fueling Migration. Do Climate Migrants Have Legal Protections”, Council on Foreign Relations d/d December 19, 2022.)

    According to Schmidt’s Nature article: “For the past nine months, mean land and sea surface temperatures have overshot previous records each month by up to 0.2 °C — a huge margin at the planetary scale. A general warming trend is expected because of rising greenhouse-gas emissions, but this sudden heat spike greatly exceeds predictions made by statistical climate models that rely on past observations. Many reasons for this discrepancy have been proposed, but yet, no combination of them has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened.”

    What, then, is the outlook according to NASA?

    “If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated.” (Schmidt)

    To say a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates is tantamount to saying that the climate system’s aberrant behavior is on automatic pilot.

    Isn’t this what everybody has been dreading for decades?

    According to Schmidt, the answer to that disturbing prospect will be obvious by August 2024. That’s only 4 months away.

    Meanwhile, migrants are already at the doorstep, even as the climate system may only be 120 days away from entering uncharted territory, which can only mean things will get a lot worse. Assuming we officially enter uncharted territory, where will the massive overbearing onslaught of the hungry, the thirsty, the lost souls, these itinerants go?

    The Statue of Liberty: “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me. I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

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  • WMO Bright Red Alert

    The World Meteorological Organization (Geneva, Switzerland) State of Climate 2023 Report by Celste Saulo, secretary general, was issued on March 19th, 2024.

    “As secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, I am now sounding the Red Alert about the state of the climate.”

    The WMO has issued an annual State of the Climate Report for more than 30 years. Accordingly, Dr. Celste Saulo’s release of the Flagship Report: “The year 2023 set new records for every single climate indicator. This annual report shows that the climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces, closely intertwined with the inequality crisis as witnessed by growing food insecurity, population displacement, and biodiversity loss.”

    According to WMO Secretary-General Saulo (Ph.D. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Buenos Aires): “Scientific knowledge of climate change has existed for more than five decades, and yet we’ve missed an entire generation of opportunity. We must base today’s decisions upon future generations rather than short-term economic interests.”

    Economic interests might consider taking a back seat by adjusting, considerably lower, its “infinite growth as soon as possible” footprint so the planet can catch its breath. Short-term economic interests as a feature of the neoliberal brand of capitalism are antithetical to the staid principles of climate science. They simply don’t mix.

    The inherent antagonism between neoliberalism’s free market dictates of “follow the money” versus the planet’s complex ecosystems that don’t need money is addressed in Global Social Challenges d/d May 4, 2021, The University of Manchester: “It seems then, that in order to prevent total ecological breakdown, we need to radically change our relationship with the way we produce and use resources. Any system that provides profit as an incentive, seems to always lead to exploitation of the earths finite resources. The idea of unlimited growth continuing indefinitely is the key culprit in climate breakdown.”

    What’s more important for life: Profits or Mother Nature?

    Accordingly, economic interests risk sudden failure, blindsided without the support of planetary ecosystems, i.e., planetary infrastructure which is increasingly under attack like never before. Throughout the biosphere, ecosystems struggle, rainforests emitting CO2, ice caps melting, Greenland a basket case, permafrost methane bubbling to surface, glaciers clobbered, and severe drought repeatedly hitting nations of the world, everywhere worldwide, Europe much harder, especially Spain subject to risk of 75% desertification with temperatures running in-excess of +2°C pre-industrial throughout the EU.

    Some highlights of WMO’s State of the Climate:

    Climate change is an existential threat to vulnerable populations everywhere: “The cost of climate action may seem high, but the costs of climate inaction are much higher.”

    Glaciers, as of 2023, had the largest loss on record. Yet, glaciers are the “water towers of the world, and we’re losing them fast. They are freshwater reservoirs.”

    A separate report by the Swiss Academy of Sciences, coincided with WMO’s Red Alert: “Swiss glaciers are melting at a rapidly increasing rate. The acceleration is dramatic, with as much ice being lost in only two years as was the case between 1960 and 1990. The two extreme consecutive years have led to glacier tongues collapsing and the disappearance of many smaller glaciers. For example, measurements of the St. Annafirn glacier in the canton of Uri had to be suspended as a result.”

    On a positive note, according to the secretary-general: “A glimmer of hope… in 2023 clean renewable energy increased nearly 50% over 2022.” Africa has huge renewable potential that is only using 1% of renewable investments. “We must focus on renewables for Africa.”

    Omar Badur, WMO Head of Climate Monitoring

    A key climate Indicator: Global temperatures 2023 were the warmest on record at 1.45°C above 1850-1900 average. Past 9 years, warmest 9 years on record. This trend appears endless.

    Sea ice loss in Antarctica was one of the major climate features reported in 2023. As a result, 2023 saw the highest rise in sea level ever. The rate doubled. In previous decades it was 2.13 mm per year. The recent decade recorded 4.17 mm/yr., nearly double.

    The most extreme climate events for the year related to heat and extreme precipitation:

    Extreme heat during the summer occurred (1) Japan had the hottest summer on record (2) Australia the hottest July-Sept on record (3) unprecedented wildfires in Canada (4) SE Asia extreme heat April/May (5) All-Europe extreme heat in summer (6) SE United States exceptionally hot summer (7) Mid-South America March, September extreme heat waves. All of which led to excessive mortality and massive forest fires.

    WMO’s discussion of extreme precipitation and deficit precipitation references the impact on agricultural food security and flooding. Most of South America, Central America, and North America experienced extreme dry episodes. North Africa experienced a long drought with some dam reservoirs at nearly zero percent of capacity. Water deficits are defining significant parts of the African continent.

    Meanwhile, pervasive flooding was seen throughout, especially in China and New Zealand, the worst flooding in recorded history. For example, in August 2023 more than 1,000,000 were forced to flee homes in China’s northeastern Hebei province, thereafter over one month to recede.

    A major concern, maybe most significant of all, and most hidden from sight, major changes in the oceans, over time, become irreversible. According to WMO’s report, 80-90% of the oceans recorded marine heatwaves in 2023. Like drought on land, excessive heatwaves lead to desertification of the oceans. However, in contrast, changes in the ocean are not as fast as atmospheric changes, and as such. once a change is established in the oceans, it’s irreversible. This is an extremely worrying trend as 80-90% experienced heatwaves.

    Confirming WMO’s observations, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, 2o23 ocean temperatures were, in the words of researchers: “Off the charts.” (Source: “Astounding Ocean Temperatures in 2023 Intensified Extreme Weather, Data Shows”, The Guardian, January 11, 2024.)

    According to Secretary General Celste: “We are having temperatures that are way above what we used to have, and our populations are not prepared to cope with that. Their infrastructure is not prepared. Their homes are not prepared. That’s why we spoke about a Red Alert.”

    Future UN climate conferences should consider focusing on adaptation measures for countries infrastructure to withstand the onslaught of drought, wildfires, floods, and sea level rise. After all, insurance companies are raising rates and, in some areas, dropping coverage altogether to adapt to climate change’s impact on bottom line profits, but in the harshest fashion, leaving the public to fend for itself, hopefully finding state-sponsored support.

    In contrast to insurance companies, which are running for the hills as global warming slashes profits, after 30 consecutive years of UN climate meetings, every issue brought before the plenary body of experts ends up worse until the following annual meeting, when it is again discussed one more time as an existential threat that gets progressively worse by the next annual session, on and on it goes. Yet, nothing about adaptation.

    In fact, the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023 found the world underfinanced, underprepared, with inadequate investment and thus exposed to “slow progress on climate adaptation.”

    Adaptation to the forces of climate change at UN climate conferences, as a major focus, would likely be a welcomed relief and a more appropriate topic than whining about excessive fossil fuel CO2 emissions now that climate change/global warming is starting to look more and more like an out-of-control freight train barreling down the mountainside.

    In line with publication of WMO’s 2023 flagship report, January 2024 was the hottest January on record.

    Moreover, as reported by NOAA, February 2024 was the hottest February on record. February is the ninth consecutive month of record heat.

    Now that the climate system is setting new hottest temperature records month-by-month, it goes without saying, it’s a deadly dangerous affair.

    How long can this trend last?

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  • Spring Traditions and Celebrations: The Past, The Present and the Future of Farming

    The Fight Between Carnival and Lent (1559) by Pieter Bruegel the Elder

    Introduction

    Eleanor Parker writes in her book, Winters in the World, that “in Anglo-Saxon poetry winter is often imagined as a season when the earth and human beings are imprisoned, kept captive by the ‘fetters of the frost’. Naturally enough, then, spring is associated with images of liberation and freedom once those fetters are released.” (p. 93) Even the title of the book, Winters in the World, described one’s age; e.g., I have 30 winters in the world, a recognition of the harshness of the winters which one had survived.

    Historically, the transition from winter to spring was symbolised by many traditions that reflected the end of difficult times and the coming of the new season of growth and rebirth. These traditions ranged from the celebration of vegetation deities through fertility rites, and the public rituals associated with Carnival/Fat Tuesday (February/March), Lent (February/March), Easter (fires/eggs/hares) (March/ April) and Rogation Days (April). Many rituals were taken over by the Christian church and given new meanings which themselves are now being secularised.

    However, since the development of industrial farming in the early twentieth century, the connection between local farming and spring rituals associated with the land have declined and taken on a commercialised aspect separated from nature. We can see this with Carnival and Easter, while Lent fasting is not practised so much anymore.

    This is not to say that the ending of the underlying reasons for carnival and the fasting of Lent; i.e., the finishing up of winter stocks and the privation until new crops grew, is such a bad thing, but our dependence on the current global system of industrial farming is worrying at a time when climate change is affecting food production around the world.

    This change is also partly due to unsustainable agricultural methods that are negatively affecting our ability to farm in the future; for example, the spread of desertification, whereby fertile areas become arid due to the overexploitation of soil.

    Furthermore, supermarkets packed to the gills with produce from all over the world deflects our attention from looming disasters. In Ireland we know the difference between famine (widespread scarcity of food) and hunger (in Irish Gaelic, An Gorta Mór, the great hunger) … ‘when a country is full of food and exporting it’.

    Moreover, governmental measures to deal with land issues may be too little too late, or ineffective, as new laws are simply ignored by vested interests.

    The Past

    Vegetation Deities and Fertility Rites

    From earliest times our relationship with nature had an element of awe and respect that resulted in the belief in vegetation deities “whose disappearance and reappearance, or life, death and rebirth, embodies the growth cycle of plants.” Many vegetation deities were also considered fertility deities, that is, “a god or goddess associated with fertility, sex, pregnancy, childbirth, and crops.”

    In Mesopotamian culture (dating back to the mid-4th millennium BCE) religion “involved the worship of forces of nature as providers of sustenance” and which later became personified as a range of gods with different functions. Natural phenomena in nature were seen to be directed by nature spirits, thus:

    A nature deity can be in charge of nature, a place, a biotope, the biosphere, the cosmos, or the universe. Nature worship is often considered the primitive source of modern religious beliefs and can be found in pantheism, panentheism, deism, polytheism, animism, Taoism, totemism, Hinduism, shamanism, some theism and paganism.

    In some cases the gods die and later return to life, particularly in religions of the ancient Near East. These dying-and-rising, death-rebirth, or resurrection deities are associated with the seasons as allegories of the death of nature and the rebirth of nature during spring; for example, Osiris, the god of fertility, agriculture, the afterlife, the dead, resurrection, life, and vegetation in ancient Egyptian religion, and Persephone in Greece, the goddess of spring and nature whose return from the underworld each spring is a symbol of her immortality.

    Persephone, Queen of the underworld, Goddess of spring, the dead, the underworld, grain, and nature
    Statue of syncretic Persephone-Isis with a sistrum. Heraklion Archaeological Museum, Crete

    Similarly, many later Roman gods and goddesses were the subjects of fertility rites and celebrations. The festival of Liberalia was held on the 17th March to celebrate the spring growth. Liber was one of the original Roman gods. A favourite of the plebeians, he was the god of fertility and wine. His festival, the Liberalia, was an occasion to mark the return of life:

    The celebration was meant to honor Liber Pater, an ancient god of fertility and wine (like Bacchus, the Roman version of the Greek god Dionysus). Liber Pater was also a vegetation god, responsible for protecting seed. Again like Dionysus, he had female priestesses, but Liber’s were older women known as Sacerdos Liberi. Wearing wreaths of ivy, they made special cakes, or libia, of oil and honey which passing devotees would have them sacrifice on their behalf. Over time this feast evolved and included the goddess Libera, and the feast divided so that Liber governed the male seed and Libera the female.

    The Present

    Carnival / Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday) (February / March)

    Of all the ancient festivals that survived into current times Carnival is probably the most prominent.  Winter spirits have been forced out to make way for the new season since antiquity. Carnival symbolised this transition from winter to summer and darkness to light. The carnival was a feast whereby ordinary people feasted on the last of the winter stocks before they rotted. This in turn created the obligatory restraint and fasting until new produce was available. The Christian festival consists of Quinquagesima or Shrove Sunday, Shrove Monday, and Shrove Tuesday or Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday). Therefore:

    Carnival typically involves public celebrations, including events such as parades, public street parties and other entertainments, combining some elements of a circus. Elaborate costumes and masks allow people to set aside their everyday individuality and experience a heightened sense of social unity. Participants often indulge in excessive consumption of alcohol, meat, and other foods that will be forgone during upcoming Lent.

    Carnival in Rome, c. 1650

    The phrase ‘Shrove Tuesday’ comes from ‘shrive’ to be absolved of one’s sins and therefore shriven before the start of Lent. It is also the last day of the Christian liturgical season which in French is known as Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday) the last night of eating well before the ritual fasting beginning on the next day, Ash Wednesday.

    Lent (February / March)

    Lent begins on Ash Wednesday and lasts around six weeks. In this Christian religious observance, (according to the Gospels of Matthew, Mark and Luke) Jesus Christ spent 40 days fasting in the desert and enduring temptation by Satan. The word Lent comes from the lengthening days of spring and is considered a period of grief which ends with the celebrations of Easter.

    Lent observers, including a confraternity of penitents, carrying out a street procession during Holy Week, in Granada, Nicaragua. The violet color is often associated with penance and detachment. Similar Christian penitential practice is seen in other Christian countries, sometimes associated with fasting.

    Easter (March / April)

    Easter is derived from pagan customs that celebrated the victory of Spring over Winter. They lit fires that helped to accelerate the end of Winter and spread the ashes over the fields to help fertilise the soil in fertility rites. Easter bonfires “have been a tradition in Germany since the 11 century. The Christians adopted the pagan custom and reinterpreted it. The fire was now seen as the light of Jesus, reminding people of the life and resurrection of Christ.” The Christian festival commemorates the resurrection of Jesus from the dead after his crucifixion by the Romans at Calvary c. 30 AD. Easter is also called Pascha (Aramaic, Greek, Latin) or Resurrection Sunday.

    Other cultural traditions associated with Easter include Easter parades, communal dancing (Eastern Europe), the Easter Bunny and egg hunting. It is likely that the eggs and the prodigious reproduction of rabbits and hares led to their depiction as symbols of fertility.

    Rogation Days (April)

    Rogation Days follow some weeks after Easter when processions are formed to pray or beseech (Latin ‘rogare’) God for protection from natural disasters such as hailstorms, floods, and droughts and to ask for blessings on the fields. Rogation processions started at a very early date in order to counteract the Roman Robigalia processions that the pagans made in honor of their gods:

    The Robigalia was a festival in ancient Roman religion held April 25, named for the god Robigus. Its main ritual was a dog sacrifice to protect grain fields from disease. Games (ludi) in the form of “major and minor” races were held. The Robigalia was one of several agricultural festivals in April to celebrate and vitalize the growing season, but the darker sacrificial elements of these occasions are also fraught with anxiety about crop failure and the dependence on divine favor to avert it.

    Blessing the Fields on Rogation Sunday at Hever, Kent in 1967

    As can be seen in these regular prayers, blessings, and processions throughout the Spring season, the anxiety of the people regarding their crops shows a deep understanding of the vagaries of nature and an awareness of their lives’ dependence on the health of their cultivation work.

    The Future

    Industrial Farming

    By the early twentieth century agriculture started to change due to new developments that brought in the era of industrial farming. Previously a wide variety of foods were produced by many small farms. However, that was all about to change as modern science was applied to various aspects of farming:

    In 1909, a scientific breakthrough by German chemist Fritz Haber—the “father of chemical warfare”—enabled the large-scale production of fertilizer (and explosives), igniting the industrialization of farming. Synthetic fertilizers, along with the development of chemical pesticides, allowed farmers to increase their crop yields (and their profits). Farmers began specializing in fewer crops, namely corn and soy, grown to feed farmed animals. Chickens became the first factory farmed animal when a farmer decided to try to raise ten times as many birds in a chicken house that was only built for 50. Other farmers followed suit.

    Thus followed the new era of industrial farming. The effect of mass production led to the use of antibiotics, selective breeding to increase the size of farm animals, and the mechanisation of slaughter houses.

    These developments led to the collapse of the many small farmers who could not compete with farming on an industrial scale. For example, now in the USA “small independent and family-run farms use only 8% of all agricultural land. In just under a century, and especially since the 1960s, agriculture has become dominated by large-scale multinational corporations. Driven by profit, these food giants rely on practices that, by design, exploit and abuse animals, destroy natural habitats, and generate pollution”.

    Seed corn is being harvested outside of Bode, Iowa, September 17, 2017.  USDA Photo by Preston Keres

    In more recent decades industrialisation has led to more innovations in “agricultural machinery and farming methods, genetic technology, techniques for achieving economies of scale in production, the creation of new markets for consumption, the application of patent protection to genetic information, and global trade.”

    This type of intensive farming has a low fallow ratio, and a high level of agrochemicals and water, producing higher crop yields per unit land area. Most of the meat, dairy products, eggs, fruits, and vegetables available in supermarkets are produced by such farms.

    Costs to the Environment

    Despite the current massive production of food globally, industrialized farming has costs that do not augur well for the future. It has been noted that intensive farming pollutes air and water (through the release of manure, chemicals, antibiotics, and growth hormones), destroys wildlife, facilitates the spread of viruses from animals to humans, fosters antimicrobial resistance, and is linked to epidemics of obesity and chronic disease, through the production of a wide variety of inexpensive, calorie-dense and widely available foods.

    Regenerative Agriculture

    The increasing awareness of the types of problems that intensive farming could be leading us to in the future is turning some farmers back to more traditional methods of farming. Regenerative agriculture focuses on “topsoil regeneration, increasing biodiversity, improving the water cycle, enhancing ecosystem services, supporting biosequestration, increasing resilience to climate change, and strengthening the health and vitality of farm soil.” Regenerative agriculture also includes different philosophies of farming such as permaculture, agroecology, agroforestry, restoration ecology, crop rotation, and uses “no-till” and/or “reduced till” practices often described as sustainable farming.

    Nature Restoration and Practice

    The negative aspects of industrial farming have come to the notice of governmental bodies such as the EU parliament which has adopted a law to restore habitats and degraded ecosystems in all member states. It notes that “over 80% of European habitats are in poor shape” and “sets a target for the EU to restore at least 20% of the EU’s land and sea areas by 2030 and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.”

    However, resistance to positive changes and procrastination deal serious blows to good intentions. The recent referral of Ireland to the EU Court of Justice for failing to halt the continued cutting of peat in areas designated to conserve raised bogs and blanket bogs is a good example. The infringement is one of the longest running infringement cases in Europe, having begun in 2010.

    Conclusion

    Our long running relationship with nature has benefited from science in the form of the production of plentiful food on a global scale. Yet our deep respect for nature in the past was partly due to our lack of understanding of the processes of biology which led to much anxiety and fear of starvation. All of the polytheistic and monotheistic debates over the influence of gods and goddesses or God have been replaced by scientific processes, but no less anxiety about the future of farming. Farming has always been reliant on predictability as plants are very sensitive to sudden climatic changes such as drought or frost, which can destroy a crop overnight (unseasonal frost) or slowly (extreme drought). Such incidences of crop failures are sporadic if examined on a global scale, but if these incidences multiply rapidly then we will see food price rises and their disastrous social consequences. A new respect for nature is called for that echoes down the centuries when those that did not heed the warnings witnessed the collapse of civilisations.

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  • Carbon Capture, too Little too Late?

    Will carbon capture technology bail society out of the latest version of greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 suddenly doubling its rate of increase when compared to the past decade, in breathtaking fashion, thus overheating the ocean and the Arctic and Antarctica and hammering Greenland?

    The relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and carbon capture technology is best seen as a metaphor of athletes in the Olympic games: Team Emissions is setting world records in the 100-meter dash; Team Carbon Capture is still training for the 10,000-meter marathon.

    Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) fall far short of meeting timelines as global emissions are outrunning all timelines, increasing two-fold within only one year, see: “CO2 Bursting into the Atmosphere” (3-22-2024). CO2 is on a rampage like never before and heating things up. Brazil’s heat index hit 144°F recently.

    According to MIT, to stay “even-with-the-board on CO2 annually,” nearly 20 billion tons needs to be captured each year. It’s overwhelming. Meanwhile, Earth soaks up half of the 37 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions per annum.  With all of that, it still leaves too much CO2 already in the atmosphere to take the heat off global warming.

    Since 1850, approximately 1,000 gigatons of human-generated CO2 is hanging out in the atmosphere, which is 1,000 billion metric tons out of a total of 2,400 billion metric tons emitted (the planet absorbing more than one-half). A large amount needs to be removed to lower atmospheric CO2 ideally to at least 350 ppm from 426 ppm. All-in, CO2 removal is a multi-billion-ton job. It’s generational work kinda like building Notre Dame Cathedral, started in 1163, finished in 1345.

    Total CO2 captured by current Direct Air Capture (DAC): “To date, 130 DAC plants are under development worldwide, with 27 commissioned and 18 completed (according to the International Energy Agency.) All of these are small-scale facilities with a current collective CO2 removal capacity of about 11,000 metric tons annually” (“”U.S. Unveils Plans for Large Facilities to Capture Carbon Directly from Air”, Science, August 11, 2023.)

    “Every second about 1,079 metric tons of CO2 are released worldwide due to burning fossil fuels.” (NASA) Meaning, current capacity removes 11 seconds worth per year.

    The IRA Biden plan aims to create four DAC hubs over the next 10 years, each capable of removing and storing at least 1 million tons of CO2 each year. As part of the program’s rollout, DOE officials also announced funding for an additional 19 conceptual and engineering studies of potential future DAC plants. (“U.S. Unveils Plans for Large Facilities to Capture Carbon Directly from Air”, Science, August 11, 2023.).

    In strong opposition to DAC, Mark Jacobson, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University says DAC is a waste of funds. His book “100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything describes a 100% renewable energy economy. Nevertheless, there’s still a problem of too much CO2 already in the atmosphere, which is already upending the climate system; 100% renewables will not remove it. There are no easy answers.

    Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry claims it can continue to produce as much oil and gas as it wants to because Carbon Capture and Sequester -CCS- will effectively neutralize CO2 emissions. No, it will not.

    According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis: “Even if realized at its full potential, CCS will only account for about 2.4% of the world’s carbon mitigation by 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”

    The real issue is not whether carbon can be captured; it can be captured; however, in the big picture, the real world, carbon emissions are hardened over centuries; carbon capture is a fledgling, mostly in a testing phase.

    According to the International Energy Agency, 40 commercial facilities are already in operation applying Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS). Since January 2022 developers have announced plans for 50 more operations capturing around 125 Mt CO2 per year. “Nevertheless, even at such a level, CCUS deployment would remain substantially below (about 1/3rd) the 1.2 Gt CO2 per year that is required in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario.” (“Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage”, IEA50.)

    To seriously make a big dent in atmospheric carbon dioxide or CO2, which is 76% of all greenhouse gas emissions, technology is going to have to accelerate considerably, in fact, beyond considerably.

    On a hopeful note, some R&D looks promising, even though still likely falling into the too little, too late category. For example, Klaus Lackner, founding director, Center for Negative Emissions, has designed a prototype Mechanical Tree, on display at the Our Future Planet exhibition at the Science Museum, London from May 2021 until September 2022. The tree is constructed of sorbent tiles which cyclically extend into the air and then retract for regeneration, passively soaking up CO2 from the air using Passive Direct Air Capture (PDAC), supposedly 1,000 times more efficient than natural trees that use photosynthesis. The captured CO2 can be sequestered in underground geological formations or sold for industrial use.

    MIT on carbon removal: “… a nearly impossible task”, says Charles Harvey, an MIT professor of civil and environmental engineering who has studied both natural and technological ways to take CO2 out of the atmosphere. “Removing CO2 is one of the hardest and most expensive ways we could address climate change—far more difficult than simply emitting less carbon in the first place.” (“How Much Carbon Dioxide Would We Have to Remove from The Air to Counteract Climate Change?” Climate Portal, MIT October 26, 2023.)

    “In fact”, says Harvey, “the energy demands of direct air capture are so great that ‘canceling out’ humanity’s emissions this way would take more energy than we’re getting from burning fossil fuels in the first place.” (Ibid.)

    “Today’s approaches can capture only a tiny fraction of what’s needed: around 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually, according to one recent study.” (Smith, S.M, et al, “The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal”, 1st Edition, 2023.)

    “To ‘turn back the clock’ on climate change, we would need to capture today’s emissions plus this enormous backlog. To reach 350 parts per million, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 1988, humans would need to remove more than 500 billion tons. To get the atmosphere back to where it was before humans began to burn fossil fuels en masse would mean catching and storing more than 900 billion tons.” (MIT Climate Portal.)

    Based upon a reasonably comprehensive study, it appears that carbon capture technology is/will be too little too late. Global warming is not waiting around.

    Nevertheless, R&D is in a fluid state, hopefully (fingers crossed) it meets the challenge (big question mark) because global warming has morphed into global heat way ahead of schedule, and climate change has become a regular on nightly national news programs, featuring (1) entire boreal forests burning like a furnace (2) floods demolishing thousands of homes in China and Pakistan, killing thousands (3) droughts impeding commercial barge traffic on Europe’s famous rivers (4) as nuclear power plants (France) power-down because of low river water flow (5) and thirsty Europeans standing in line for bottled water in France and Italy in the summer of ’22.

    Meanwhile, March 2024 news items of interest: 7,200 miles away from Europe, similar issues: “Persistent Drought is Drying Out Chile’s Drinking Water”, Reuters News, March 20, 2024. And on another continent, Johannesburg (pop. 5.6M) CBS News headlines March 21, 2024: “South Africa Water Crisis Sees Taps Run Dry across Johannesburg”.

    That’s just for starters as UN analysts claim 75% of Spain is subject to desertification.

    Climate change is literally changing the face of the world.

    And that’s not even mentioning one of the biggest concerns of the Northern Hemisphere. Greenland’s northern-most glaciers are very tipsy way too early. The icy island is on the ropes; surprisingly, it rained at Greenland’s summit (10,500 feet) for the first time ever as the entire ice infrastructure goes off-the-charts with a summertime melt rate of 30,000,000 tons per hour or 720,000,000 tons per day, 20-25% more than previously thought, according to recent studies.

    And don’t even think about West Antarctica or Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. According to NASA: “The rainforest doesn’t react like it used to. It does not have enough time between droughts to heal itself and regrow. Throughout all recorded history, this has never been witnessed.”

    What to do?

    Everybody’s hopeful that human ingenuity; i.e., technology, will bail us out. Will it?

    Meantime: “Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse.” (Celeste Saulo, secretary-general, World Meteorological Organization.)

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  • CO2 Bursting into the Atmosphere

    CO2 is bursting into the atmosphere like never before, up and away, like it has wings.

    According to climate scientists, we’re fast approaching white-knuckle time. This reinforces the outlook for 2024 as expressed by WMO: “Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse.” (Celeste Saulo, secretary-general, World Meteorological Organization)

    Making matters more nerve-wracking yet, Carbon dioxide, CO2, in the atmosphere is setting new all-time records, soaring above expectations and well above previous readings at Mauna Lua Observatory, Hawaii:

    March 18, 2024, CO2 measured 426.02 ppm.
    March 15, 2023. CO2 measured 420.24 ppm.

    That’s +5.78 ppm in only one year. An increase of this magnitude has not been seen before. On a seasonal basis, the month of May is ordinarily the peak reading for the year. That’s still weeks away. The climate system as it relates to greenhouse gas emissions appears to have gone bonkers, out in left field.

    The historical annual rate of CO2:

    1960s +0.8 ppm
    1980s +1.6 ppm
    2000s +2.0 ppm
    2010s +2.4 ppm

    Today’s +5.78 ppm is way above the trend.

    Current daily readings:

    March 15 427.93
    March 16 426.36
    March 17 423.96
    March 18 426.02

    It should be noted that the month of February 2024 @ 424.55 ppm was +4.25 ppm versus February 2023 @ 420.30 ppm. Once again, way above past increases. According to CO2-Earth: “The measured CO2 levels in the atmosphere serve as the single best, real-time signal of whether the world as a whole is on track to a safe future.”

    Ergo, a safe future appears to be dangling.

    CO2 levels may be signaling serious trouble of unanticipated global warming bursting loose, depending upon how much more CO2 is generated by fossil fuels from industry, cars, planes, and trains as well as how the planet’s climate system continues to adjust and react to decades of harsh pounding by Homo sapiens. Nature is under attack in sensitive areas, like rainforests, permafrost (25% of the Northern Hemisphere), boreal forests, Antarctica, Greenland, the Arctic, and oceans with emissions causing too much heat to handle. And today’s CO2 says it’s getting worse.

    What will the world’s leaders do in the face of a trembling global climate system?

    Maybe hold another UN climate conference, like COP28 in Dubai last year, headlined by another fossil fuel nation/state with a Middle East oil and gas executive as president of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP) to figure out how to handle massive excessive fossil fuel CO2 emissions choking the planet. That would really rub it into the noses of climate scientists who’d probably refuse to attend one of the second biggest shams in human history, following in the footsteps of COP28. Frankly, that kind of kindergarten approach to handling a serious issue like climate change should motivate people across the planet to rise up in opposition to one more “big fix” designed to continue enriching a teeny-weeny miniscule segment of world population.

    Only recently in January 2024 Mauna Lau Observatory Hawaii anticipated a “relatively large” surge in annual average CO2 concentrations for 2024, estimating an increase of approximately 2.84 ppm more than 2023. But current trends put that into question as too low.

    Global warming feeds off increasing levels of greenhouse gases, like methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor but mostly carbon dioxide (CO2). Along those lines, there are 10 primary greenhouse gases, and it’s scientifically proven that CO2 accounts for about 76% of greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases are labeled as such because of the greenhouse effect trapping solar radiation, which functions like any typical greenhouse but without glass to trap heat. Molecules, such as CO2, simulate glass and thus retain heat.

    The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more heat is trapped. This equation is very straight-forward. But what if CO2 increases rapidly well beyond its historic pattern, which is already well beyond any historical trend in modern history? That’s happening and climate scientists in the know are deeply concerned.

    As a consequence, since it’s a national election year, according to an Arctic News article d/d March 16, 2024: “The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action.”

    In other words, politicians are failing to fight human-generated global warming. Many of the big promises by nations of the world at Paris ’15 to decrease emissions are nearly kaput. Politicians of the world have failed the planet and should be fired because once greenhouse gas emissions push global warming towards, and eventually to, warp speed, meaning runaway global warming, like what now appears to be in early stages, then it’s too late to remove them from office and do something constructive with replacement politicians that understand science, like Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D – RI), famous for his Time to Wake Up speeches to the Senate.

    Already, before this current spike up in CO2, professional sources were anticipating trouble ahead. According to a very respected 2024 forecast, Professor Richard Betts, the Met Office in Britain:

    This year’s estimated rise in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration is well above all three 1.5°C-compatible scenarios highlighted in the IPCC report… Even when we compensate for the temporary effects of El Niño, we find that human-induced emissions would still cause the CO2 rise in 2024 to be on the absolute limits of compliance with the 1.5°C pathways. (Eric Ralls, “Met Office: 2024 CO2 Levels Will Surpass the Point of No Return”, Earth.com, January 22, 2024.)

    Meanwhile, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) service confirmed that February 2023 to January 2024 saw warming of 1.52 degrees Celsius above the 19th century benchmark. (“World Sees First 12 Months Above 1.5C Warming Level: Climate Monitor”, PHYS.ORG, February 8, 2024.)

    As it happens, the world climate system is turning into a Hollywood blockbuster horror film with CO2, the villain of the movie set, now spiking up as drought clobbers what is usually the wettest (northern) part of the Amazon and wildfires rip across Canada from the West Coast to the Atlantic provinces and ravage parts of Siberia. But it’s even worse than that as Zombie Fires, meaning fires that continue burning below surface during winter months, continue smoldering in British Columbia and Alberta into winter months. (“Canada Wildfires Never Stopped, They Just Went Underground as Zombie Fires Smolder on Through the Winter“, CBS News, February 23, 2024.)

    “A lot of people talk about fire season and the end of the fire season,’ referring to the period generally thought of as being from May to September, ‘but the fires did not stop burning in 2023. The fires dug underground and have been burning pretty much all winter.” (Ibid.)

    Global warming set the stage for those wildfires and set the stage for the most vicious drought in Amazon rainforest history. NASA’s GRACE satellite system shows an Amazon in tenuous condition in an unprecedented state of breakdown. GRACE has detected large areas of the Amazon classified as “Deep Red Zones” with severely constrained water levels. That’s global warming hard at work.

    As for one example of many, back in October 2023: “The level of the Rio Negro is dropping by 1 meter (3 feet) every three days, something that has never been recorded before.” (“Amazon Drought Cuts River Traffic, Leaves Communities Without Water and Supplies“, Mongabay, October 2023.).

    It’s almost impossible to grasp the damage happening to world ecosystems because it happens on the fringe of civil society, such as Siberian and Alaskan permafrost leaking methane, Antarctica ice shelves deteriorating, Greenland rain at its summit for the first time ever as the entire ice structure goes off the charts with a summertime melt rate increasing from 30,000,000 tons per day to 720,000,000 tons per day in the time span of only one year. Honestly, this is beyond words!

    However, people are now starting to see the damage first-hand, like major European rivers (Rhine, Danube, etc.) partially drying up with commercial barges stuck in mud in the summer of ’22 as hundreds of French/Italian communities survived the summer of ‘22 on emergency truck-delivered water, speaking of which Johannesburg (pop. 5.6M) made CBS News headlines March 21, 2024: South Africa Water Crisis Sees Taps Run Dry across Johannesburg. And France imported electrical power for the first time in 40 years as low river flow inhibited nuclear power generation, normally 70% of France’s electrical energy. That hits home.

    A few years ago, not that far back in time, people would have freaked out over the threats currently wrought by global warming, but as time passes, people get accustomed to hearing about disaster scenarios like a Hollywood film but on TV in the comfort of their homes, and they shrug and move on with life as long as it’s not in their neighborhood.

    Elsewhere, beyond the weird noises of nature heard in the Amazon rainforest, in everyday life people wake up every morning in cities like LA and NYC and Atlanta and Dallas, London, Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro (record heat 62.3°C or 144.14°F on March 18), and they go about daily routines, the same ole, same ole, hop into a new EV, motor the freeway to an underground parking garage, up an elevator 20 floors to air-conditioned offices for 8 hours and then reverse the process. These people do not live where climate change damages ecosystems.

    Urban ecosystems mainly consist of concrete, asphalt, glass, steel, some wood, chemical-laden textiles, and a sprinkling of flora. What’s to harm? Urban residents are missing, and ignorant of, the deterioration of the planet’s most important ecosystems that sustain life, period! This is called “recognition deficit” and down the road the consequences will be deadly.

    The recognition deficit of the dangers of global warming glosses over reality. Life seems the same in NYC today as yesterday but ecosystems that are distant, out of sight, are on the ropes and some near collapse. A very harsh impact is lurking in the background. One day it’ll be profound and too late recognized.

    What to do? This is the year of political electioneering. Don’t endorse political candidates that don’t understand and support climate science. This is something that everybody can do with impact, and it could be powerful.

    Get off the couch and go door-to-door, or email, or pick up the phone to call friends to support candidates who believe in climate science. You can help prevent Hot House Earth, hopefully.

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  • Coastal Cities at High Noon

    Antarctica, the massive continent of ice, the size of the continental US and Mexico combined, is breaking apart more and more as a recent scientific expedition discovered unambiguous signals of considerably more danger than previously realized.

    “The changes to the sea-ice indicate that in the coming decades coastal cities will need to be reconfigured because of sea level rise,” according to Craig Stevens, Auckland, Professor of Physical Oceanography. (“Signs Found of Worryingly Fast Antarctic Ice Melt – New Zealand Expedition”, RNZ, March 3, 2024.)

    Sea level rise for coastal cities, the world’s worst nightmare, is coming within indeterminate decades but probably sooner than expected because that’s how science works these days. It’s always late to the party and not properly dressed for the occasion. But don’t blame the scientists, as soon as they complete research, the fast-moving climate system has outdistanced them. This is the new normal. Science is too slow for climate change.

    Moreover, reader commentary/feedback about articles such as this recognizes a distinct trend in the world’s climate system that’s starting to come apart at the seams much earlier than expected. That observation is true. But what can be done and why aren’t world leaders holding emergency meetings to challenge civilization’s biggest challenge is puzzling, to say the least. It’s only too obvious because of lack of expedient policies to halt greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and consequent sea level rise are not taken seriously enough.

    In that regard, it must be noted that the world’s rich/wealthy elite that buy/own politicians, buy/own Supreme Court justices could have stopped global warming dead in its tracks decades ago when Dr James Hansen  (Earth Institute/Columbia University) warned the US Senate in 1988 of global warming when he was head of NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies but instead chose to go along with a fossil fuel-poisoned world where the money resides.

    Since that time, the world has become a function of neoliberal capitalism, as dictated by Reagan/Thatcher almost 50 years ago. Therefore, the question must be asked: Has that socio-economic system that has made only a few filthy rich on the back of 99.75% of the world’s population been a good caretaker of the planet? Answer: No, it has not. Then, why should that warped socio-economic system be allowed to continue as absentee careless caretaker of the planet? Neoliberal capitalism hasn’t done one positive thing for the planet, not one, but has drained resources and enriched a teeny-teeny-weeny minority of people. Bravo! But what’s the ecological legacy?

    Meanwhile, a team of New Zealand scientists Antarctic Science Platform and a research team from the Italian Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide aboard the 262-foot ice-breaker research vessel Laura Bassi just returned from two months in Antarctica’s Ross Sea. They got a first-hand look at sea ice retreat and came away with deep concern. Things are happening much faster than anybody thought possible. High noon for the world’s coastal cities is closer than they expected.

    Craig Stevens, Professor of Physical Oceanography, Auckland led the expedition. The three lowest sea ice extents since modern records have been kept. 2022, 2023, and 2024 are the lowest in the 46-year record of Antarctic sea ice. It’s gone fast and faster. Furthermore, the configuration of deeper parts of the ocean are changing via content of salty and oxygenated water. According to Dr. Stevens: “With a climate emergency underway, the work they were doing was urgent.”

    It was only a couple of months ago when the following headline caught attention: “Antarctic Sea-Ice at ‘Mind-Blowing Low Alarms Experts“, RNZ, September 17, 2023.  “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” according to Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

    “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” is language that’s as strong as climate scientists ever use. That one sentence about Antarctica should ring throughout the land a clarion call to take immediate action, but, so far, it hasn’t moved the needle.

    Similar to Antarctica’s cousin Arctic sea ice up north, down south huge ice expanse regulates the planet’s temperature, steadily throughout a 10,000-yr episode of human history known as the Holocene Era, not too hot, not too cold. Its white surface spectacularly reflects 80-90% of solar radiation back into space, and it importantly cools the water beneath and near it. Without its cooling ice influence: “Antarctica could transform from Earth’s refrigerator to a radiator.” (Ibid.)

    By all appearances, it is starting to transform into a radiator for the first time in human history. The real depth of the problem, moreover, is even deeper yet as both poles react in the same manner, almost regardless of the season, rapid ice melt, big losses of the all-important albedo effect reflecting 80-90% of solar radiation back to space, whilst a rapidly expanding dark ocean background absorbs considerably more heat than the surrounding ice can withstand. It’s a vicious melt-off circular that gooses the climate system into absolute nonsensical patterns turning normal jet streams (20-40,000 feet) abnormally whacky, rocking the hemisphere with massive doses of scorching heat that stays put, atmospheric rivers, massive flooding, and wildfires galore. It’s all massive scale. There is no more normal.

    Ultimately, the bruised climate system is aiming for a surprise coastal flooding of major cities that carelessly will not be prepared because, based upon many, many climate conferences, and gobs of warnings by thousands of climate scientists over many years, the risk still has not sunk into policies of major nation/states that global warming’s favored course is destructive coastal flooding and ecosystem degradation. If they truly believed, they’d do everything possible to convert fossil fuel subsidies, which the IMF says surged to a record $7 trillion, and build seawalls, very tall seawalls. This then would complete the circle of moats surrounding countries in an ongoing left-right socio-politico battle over whether revival of the Middle Ages (500 – 1400 A.D.) comes to pass. Burning at the stake could be right around the corner.

    Not that many years ago, scientists never thought Antarctica would awaken from its frozen past and succumb to global warming.  Well, it’s finally awakened, and it is succumbing. “It’s potentially a really alarming sign of Antarctic climate change that hasn’t been there for the last 40 years. And it’s only just emerging now.” (Ibid.)

    It was only three decades ago when Martin Siegert, glaciologist, University of Exeter started studying Antarctica. Today he says: “Awakening this monster of the south threatens an absolute disaster for the world.” (Ibid.)

    Refreshingly, scientists studying Antarctica are not holding back statements of fact. According to Anna Hogg, Earth scientist at University of Leeds: There are signs that what is already happening to Antarctica’s ice sheets is in “the worst-case scenario range of what was predicted.” (Ibid.)

    The worst-case scenario is too unnerving to reiterate.

    What about solutions? For starters, here’s a quote from Dr. James Hansen at a special event in Utah hosted by The Nature Conservancy: “We’ve got political parties on both sides taking money from special interests. And unless we solve this problem with our democracy, we really can’t change the climate change problem. And the public knows this.”

    Answer: kill Citizens United as soon as possible

    Citizens United – In 2010. the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Americans cannot prevent corporations from spending unlimited money to control elections, politicians, and policy based upon interpretation of the First Amendment.

    The Supremes put the United States of America up for sale to the highest bidders.

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  • Accelerating Ocean Heat Breaks All-Time Records

    North Atlantic Ocean temperature is on a red-hot streak.

    New research finds ocean temperatures… “have now smashed previous heat records for at least seven years in a row.” (Lijing Cheng, et al, “New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023”, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, January 2024.)

    Certainly, it’s nothing to mess around with as oceans absorb 90% of planetary heat. Maybe that’s too much too quickly to withstand. Or is it a big burp or could it be something much worse?

    Ocean heat represented on a chart displays a nearly vertical solid move up for over the past year. This is Michael Mann’s famous “hockey stick” applied to ocean temperature! Climate science does not have a record of such a powerful jolt upwards for ocean warming. Maybe something big or even bigger than big is underway.

    A recent NYT headline tells the story: “Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures”, New York Times, February 27, 2023, by suggesting it could be indicative of developments beyond all expectations by mainstream science. January 2024 was the 8th year in a row when global temperatures “blew past previous records.” The North Atlantic has hit record-breaking temperatures and holding them there for a solid year now. According to scientists: “It’s just astonishing. Like, it doesn’t seem real.” (NYT)

    But it is real!

    And it should shake up and rattle the cage of every person on the planet because their leaders, who are supposed to address problems like this, are asleep at the switch, sound asleep!

    It’s not only the North Atlantic that is acting up in a mean-spirited manner. Down south, according to Matthew England, professor at University of New South Wales: “The sea ice around the Antarctic is just not growing… The temperature’s just going off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future.” (Ibid.)

    Global warming appears to be infectiously indiscriminate north/south throughout the globe. These are strange times that demand a lot of attention by nation/states of the world that are sitting ducks for surprisingly rapid sea water rise and a host of other troubling ecosystem crash landings.

    Impact of Ocean Heat Acceleration

    According to NASA, Global Climate Change – Vital Signs of the Planet: Accelerating ocean warming: (1) increases sea level rise due to thermal expansion (2) accelerates melting of major ice sheets, already starting to cascade everywhere on the planet, directly increases sea levels (3) intensifies hurricanes (4) degrades overall ocean health with loss of biodiversity.

    For example, the Blob event in the Pacific Ocean laid the foundation for what to expect from ocean heat. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):

    An unprecedented marine heat wave known as ‘the Blob’ dominated the northeastern Pacific from 2013 to 2016, and upended ecosystems across a huge swath of the Pacific Ocean. This led to an ecological cascade, causing fishery collapses and fishery disaster determinations.

    — “The Ongoing Marine Heat Waves in U.S. Waters, Explained”, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July 24, 2023.

    If fishery collapses occurred way back in 2013-16, then what of today’s more overheated ocean? The Blob was unlike anything the West Coast had experienced: From the Gulf of Alaska-to-Baja, California (Mexico) sea surface temperature hit levels 7°F above average.

    “Fishery collapses” as experienced a decade ago, on top of depleted fish stocks, like we have now, is a formula for disaster for marine life and human life. Globally, overexploited fish stocks; i.e., catching fish faster than they reproduce, has “more than doubled since 1980.” Ergo, most current levels of wild fish catch are unsustainable. (“Fish and Overfishing”, Our World in Data)

    “In 2015 a record outbreak of toxic algae shut down West Coast Dungeness crab fisheries worth millions of dollars. Then came seabird die-offs, record numbers of whales entangled in fishing lines, crashing salmon returns, and starving California sea lion pups washing up on beaches, just for starters. “You had a number of things occurring that by themselves were just astounding,” according to Nate Mantua, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center. “When you put it all together you could hardly believe it.” (“Looking Back at The Blob: Record Warming Drives Unprecedented Ocean Change”, NOAA Fisheries, September 26, 2019.)

    According to Arctic News: The year 2024 looks to be worse than the year 2023… sea surface temperatures that were extremely high in 2023 will be followed by a steep rise in 2024, in fact, crossing 21°C (70°F) as early as January 2024. Toxic algae welcomes the heat; it is sustained and enhanced by warmer waters.

    According to Copernicus, which is the Earth Observation Programme of the European Union:

    • The average global sea surface temperature (SST) for January over 60°S–60°N reached 20.97°C, a record for January, 0.26°C warmer than the previous warmest January, in 2016, and second highest value for any month in the ERA5 dataset, within 0.01°C of the record from August 2023 (20.98°C).
    • Since 31 January, the daily SST for 60°S–60°N has reached new absolute records, surpassing the previous highest values from 23rd and 24th of August 2023.

    The planet is turning hotter prior to, during, and in the aftermath of COP28 (UN Climate Conference of the Parties) held in oil-rich Dubai, November/December 2023 and hosted by Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber as COP28 President as well as serving as Group CEO of ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) since 2016.

    COPs have been held for nearly 30 consecutive years to address the issue of climate change and global warming and what to do about it. Yet they have miserably failed to impact fossil fuel emissions (up every year and accelerating). COP28 was a ‘tilted game’ in favor of continuation of fossil fuel emissions and according to Martin Siegert, polar scientist and deputy vice-chancellor at University of Exeter:

    The science is perfectly clear. COP28, by not making a clear declaration to stop fossil fuel burning is a tragedy for the planet and our future. The world is heating faster and more powerfully than the COP response to deal with it.

    — “A Tragedy for the Planet’: Scientists Decry COP28 Outcome”, Common Dreams, December 14, 2023.

    “A tragedy for the planet and our future” as emphasized by Dr. Siegert, is a travesty that should not be allowed to stand. Throughout the history of COP meetings, never has the oil and gas industry taken the lead position in meetings of 60-80,000 attendees supposedly devoted to fixing global warming. Nothing more needs to be said about the charade known as COP28. It’s only too obvious. Well, maybe more needs to be said: The people of the world have never been so easily bamboozled, hoodwinked by an international body that’s supposed to protect the sanctity of the planet. COP28 didn’t.

    Where’s the pushback?

    Regardless, the oceans are in a state of rebellion, which could flood the oil and gas business out of business, as an act of nature protecting herself. Worldwide petroleum refineries are constructed along coastal areas and rivers to take advantage of water resources and easy transportation. As the spigots of fossil fuel CO2 emissions remain wide-open, assuredly, enhanced global warming will flood them out of business.

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  • The Fastest Warming on Earth

    In the High Arctic scientists discovered million-year-old methane (CH4) trapped under some of the world’s mightiest glaciers detected via unprecedented groundwater springs. Analyses of 123 springs found CH4 in all but one. As the massive glaciers recede, space opens at the edge of permafrost, releasing ancient methane. This is one more totally unexpected global warming headache.

    Methane detected in the High Arctic puts a big hole in the Global Methane Pledge of more than 100 countries that agreed to cut emissions 30% by 2030. It’s an add-on that nobody knows how to deal with.

    The High Arctic location is Svalbard, Norway (pop. 2,642) which is the fastest warming region of the planet only 700 miles from the North Pole. It’s ironic that the fastest warming is the farthest northern human outpost, deep into the Arctic North.

    “On the Dot with David Schechter,” CBS News released a 45-minute film December 4th, 2023, documenting the warmest place on Earth: Ancient Methane Escaping from Melting Glaciers Could Potentially Warm the Planet Even More.

    The film is noteworthy for its elegant beauty of landscape and simplicity of explaining a very complex climate system. With a soft tell-all, David Schechter skillfully interviews climate scientists at the top of the world, thus revealing what every world citizen should be aware of, the inescapable conclusion that climate change is far and away our biggest threat, a menacing transformation of Earth’s climate system that may, or may not, be too late to halt or reverse depending upon whom Schechter interviewed at any given sequence of the film.

    Nevertheless, in a very straightforward easy-to-understand manner, the underlying message of the film is a climate system that has radically changed into a threatening monster filled with sudden unforeseen risks and ultimately the potential of a metaphoric runaway freight train barreling down a mountainside. The risks are only too evident, prompting a very straightforward question: Is it too late?

    The answer found in the film is yes and no, depending.

    Radical temperature changes are at the core. According to the film: Winters in the US are 3.7°F warmer than a couple of decades ago. In sharp contrast, Svalbard is a nerve-rattling 13.6°F warmer, bringing in its wake bigger and more frequent avalanches and landslides than ever before whilst simultaneously massive floods, massive drought, and massive wildfires clobber ecosystems thousands of miles away in Europe, in North America, in China, throughout the world. Everything with climate change is now on a massive scale. This is different than the past.

    Wide-ranging climate change was beyond anything Svalbard was prepared for; e.g., homes destroyed by avalanches. Subsequently, Svalbard has been adapting by erecting avalanche barriers and walls.

    The Ny-Alesund Research Station based in Svalbard is where scientists from around the world gather to study the High Arctic. It’s the world’s northern-most research facility with 35 year-round residents swelling to over 100 scientists that fly in from around the world during summer months when sunlight is 24/7.

    A sculpture of renowned Arctic explorer Roald Amundsen (1872-1928) greets visitors at the centre of Ny-Alesund.

    Jack Kohler, glaciologist, Norwegian Polar Institute, has studied glaciers in the region for 27 years… a significant glacier of his focus has retreated 4 kilometers over his tenure. At the water’s edge, the glacier is as tall as a 15-story building and 2 miles wide.

    Kohler says colleagues throughout the world are seeing similar effects of climate change: (1) it’s warming a lot (2) there is considerably more melt (3) there’s no compensating increase in precipitation (4) winter snow season is shrinking because of a rapid increase in temperature. Indeed, it is an unnerving worldwide phenomenon.

    At the heart of the global warming issue, according to Jack Kohler: “It’s happening really fast!”

    The worldwide impact of sea water rise will be on the march. Accordingly, at current melt rates, it’s estimated sea level rise in the US over the next 30 years will increase 10-14 inches on the East Coast, 14-18 inches on the Gulf Coast, and 4-8 inches on the West Coast. Florida is already seeing a troublesome impact, raising streets by 1-3 feet in Miami Beach. High tides become high floods.

    The High Arctic is also home to Zeppelin Observatory at the top of Mount Zeppelin manned by Ove Hermansen, senior scientist, Norwegian Institute for Air Research. Super sensitive equipment at the mountain top measures gases in the atmosphere. Zeppelin Observatory coordinates its findings with a network of worldwide observatories; e.g., samples sent to Boulder, Colorado, National Center for Atmospheric Research. CO2 is 50% above pre-industrial since the 1980s with methane CH4 up 165%. If such growth rates continue, all bets are off for a global warming soft landing, more likely an overheated planet, eliminating human comfort zones across equatorial regions, and beyond.

    Longyearbyen is the administrative centre for Svalbard where Anna Sjoblom serves as a meteorologist at the University Center in Longyearbyen. In her view, the Arctic is “the refrigerator or freezer for the rest of the world” but unfortunately thawing way too fast, as global warming works double-time radically distorting the crucial jet stream at 20,000-40,000 feet altitude that, in turn, negatively impacts the entire Northern Hemisphere with atmospheric rivers and stationary heat waves that do not let up, throwing the climate system for a loop. According to Sjoblom: “We are getting a new type of normal in the world that nobody is ready for.”

    Dr. Andy Hodson, glaciologist at University Center Svalbard, has linked rapid disappearance of glacial ice to release of methane from deep underground. Glacial retreat is the driver of methane gas emitting via unprecedented pools of water on surface where none existed before. In the central region underground springs bring CH4 to surface as 123 of 124 streams were found with methane. As a result, this increases the risks of a global warming breakout.  Conditions are there to impact global warming far beyond current expectations, such behavior is now underway.

    Svalbard’s scientists are witnessing the fastest ever climate change. For some of them, it seems to be “too late.” Yet, for others, after experiencing the world’s most rapid rate of global warming, a sense of urgency “to do something” overwhelms. They can only hope that the film will serve as a wake-up call to leaders of the world to take the problem much more seriously.

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  • Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A World of Trouble

    What if Arctic sea ice melts?

    All of it… during the summer!

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), over the past three decades the oldest, thickest ice (13-20 feet thick) has declined by a stunning 95 percent and 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now thin “seasonal ice” that quickly melts in the Arctic summer.

    Based upon scientific analyses, loss of sea ice impacts the planet’s biggest thermostat, i.e., the Arctic sea ice itself, into a wacky climate monster that dims/diminishes one of the biggest reflectors of solar radiation, thereby exposing Earth to excessive solar heat quickly absorbed in dark iceless sea water that would otherwise be reflected back into space, according to NOAA >80%, by a bright icy surface , bringing in its wake unprecedented climate havoc: (1) Northern Hemispheric ultra-powerful storms (2) disrupted agricultural seasons distort crop growth (3) coastal cities at risk of flooding as the Greenland ice sheet crumbles more and more than ever before; a result of the loss of its biggest refrigerator, right next door.

    Based upon several early warning signs, the stakes are enormously high. After all, Arctic sea ice has exerted positive influence, seemingly forever, by maintaining a 10,000-year Holocene Era steady climate system, earmarked by a “not-too-hot-not-too-cold spectacular Goldilocks experience” ever since people first sat around fires in caves thanks, in part, to the ever-vigilant Arctic sea ice thermostat. That gift to humanity is almost gone after 10K years of hard work. Early results of its demise are already forthcoming.

    Arctic sea ice loss is arguably one of the most significant tipping points in human history. Can civilization handle it?

    A study published in Nature Communications in November 2023 characterized Greenland’s northern glaciers as “in trouble” with its ice shelves rapidly weakening, destabilizing much earlier than previously thought. Loss of Arctic sea ice will accelerate this weakening, by a lot. Meantime, coastal cities of the world are not prepared for major surges.

    The direct relationship between the Arctic’s inordinate warming with sea ice loss and disintegrating Greenland ice shelves has been identified for some time now: “Current research suggests that disappearing sea ice and disproportionate Arctic warming contribute to accelerated Greenland melt, which is now the single largest driver of sea-level rise.” (Source: How Are Reduced Arctic Sea ice and Increased Greenland Melting Connected? Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 53, Issue 1, 2021.)

    A proposal to revive; i.e., refreeze Arctic Sea ice, comes from a steadfast group of scientists/engineers/inventors working under the acronym PRAG. They believe they can provide the proper guidance to rescue the Arctic and welcome any support both financially and intellectually because – beware, beware – geo-engineering is a hot topic that sparks vicious dogfighting within the scientific community.

    What does refreezing the Arctic entail?

    A white paper authored by John Nissen, founder of Planetary Restoration Action Group (“PRAG”), claims two main methods (there are others under consideration; e.g., MEER) are needed to cool the Arctic and both should be employed in conjunction: (1) marine cloud brightening – according to cloud physicist John Latham, adding salt particles from sea water to clouds increases the reflectively of sunlight thereby increasing cooling for Arctic sea ice formation; and (2) stratospheric aerosol injection – aerosol particles, a coolant called sulfur dioxide (SO2)  sprayed into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space, mimicking the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991-92 which emitted enough SO2 into the stratosphere to cause ~0.5C global cooling.

    Interestingly, injecting SO2 to help cool the planet was suggested by the US National Academy of Sciences way back in 1992.

    The arguments for and against solar radiation management (SRM) in the simplest of terms revolve around the perceived risks of harm.  On the opposition side, there is fear that SRM could inadvertently create a Frankenstein climate system that could do bad things such as (1) extraordinary droughts or (2) disrupt monsoons or (3) damage the precious ozone layer. There is also the fear that SRM would encourage more fossil fuel emissions, known as the moral hazard argument.

    The other side in favor of SRM geo-engineering counters by claiming there is no known evidence of significant risk of harm from deliberate geo-engineering to cool the planet, whilst also acknowledging there is no such thing as riskless interference with the climate system. After all, we’ve already geoengineered a Frankenstein climate system by emitting greenhouse gases like CO2 into the atmosphere via cars, trains, planes, and industry for over 100 years. So, it’s fair to ask what’s wrong with geo-engineering to reduce temperatures and defuse the climate crisis?  Time is short, according to UN Secretary General António Guterres: “We are entering an era of global boiling.”

    PRAG has no knowledge of concrete evidence that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection causes harm whereas they claim there are big potential benefits, such as restoring Arctic sea ice.  Regarding the moral hazard argument: PRAG claims “the moral hazard is ‘not to geoengineer’ when geoengineering could prevent catastrophe.” Thus, they’ve staked their position, insinuating that society has few, if any, reasonable alternatives.

    For millions of years, Arctic Sea ice has been one of the most important natural regulators of the Northern Hemisphere climate system. Of utmost importance, less sea ice means more sun radiation absorbed into the dark background of sea water, which means more solar heat absorbed in the sea, melting more ice, etc. in a vicious cycle. The result could be Hot House Earth, especially if melting permafrost releases vast quantities of entrapped frozen methane clathrates (aka: methane hydrates) in shallow continental-shelf waters offshore Russia, to wit: the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, and East Siberian Sea.

    As it happens, the entire Northern Hemisphere is a target of what happens in the Arctic. For example, rapid warming has altered the behavior of the all-important polar jet stream, a high-level stream of air which encircles the planet in a wavy, east-moving pattern.  This alteration has led to the jet stream drooping and getting stuck in big holding patterns, causing extremes of weather, like endless blistering heatwaves or atmospheric rivers that stay put.

    Indeed, extremes of heat have already become a serious problem; e.g., according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, as of August 2023, seventy-five percent (75%) of Spain has been declared vulnerable to desertification because of excessive heat. That UN declaration was in 2023. On January 25, 2024 Gavarda, Spain temperature was 30.7°C (87.3°F) … in the middle of winter. As of early February 2024, Pyrenees ski resorts have closed because of snow drought.

    Wake up calls of a climate in trouble are found everywhere. It’s getting serious.

    Crazed, erratic polar jet streams, as a result of loss of Arctic sea ice, causes the jet stream to dip south, bringing bitter cold and powerful blizzards to America. This has always been a winter-time climate feature, but it’s gotten worse, and much worse; if the Arctic turns ice free, today’s blizzards will likely turn into something much more powerfully damaging.

    PRAG has a recommended agenda to tackle the job of reconstituting Arctic sea ice. PRAG founder John Nissen has been investigating geo-engineering for over a decade, which he believes is urgently needed to save/restore Arctic sea ice. He has theorized the Gulf Stream and Arctic sea ice serve as a thermostatic control system for preventing the planet from heating above a certain temperature, approximately the global temperature of some years ago. As such, Arctic sea ice is an essential part of that control system. Global warming threatens to destroy it at a given summer’s end, possibly by 2030. Thereby, disabling the thermostatic control of the planet. This could bring on the biggest-ever disruptive climate system, to wit: (1) methane discharge from permafrost, igniting rapid global warming, as well as (2) disintegration of portions of the Greenland ice sheet, potentially flooding portions of cities like Miami Beach.

    Time is of essence. James Hansen, Earth Institute/Columbia University, predicts global temperatures could reach 4C this century without cooling intervention. According to Hansen, the world’s foremost climate scientist, who supports geo-engineering, something must be done soon. He believes we’ll surpass 1.5C next decade and 2C by mid-century. These are global temperature markers above pre-industrial levels that will manifest degradation of ecosystems like the Arctic far ahead of what mainstream science expects.

    Earth’s energy imbalance or “sunlight in” versus “sunlight out” is currently running at a frightful rate @ 1.36 W/m2 as of the current 2020s decade. This is troubling (which is the understatement of the year). The current rate of solar radiation is double the 2005-2015 rate @ 0.71 W/m2 (Source: James Hansen). Doubling solar radiation “watts per square meter” over only a decade is a surefire way to heat up the planet much faster than ever before. This one data point is extremely significant and portends bigger trouble down the line.

    The Planetary Restoration Action Group welcomes help from interested parties that want to get involved in restoring the Arctic. In their view, the alternative, or doing nothing, is not an option. Meantime, the Arctic is heating up ever faster as global warming spikes upwards, as cautioned by James Hansen. Accordingly, something must be done at the highest priority of international action to halt the Arctic warming and start refreezing the Arctic. The future for every young person is at stake.

    According to PRAG, there’s no reason to be downtrodden or defeated if cooling intervention, together with efforts to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, are activated to restore the planet to a safe, sustainable, biodiverse, and productive state, leading to a bright prospect for future generations. PRAG has a hopeful message.

    But time is of essence like never before. According to NOAA, because of global warming, the Arctic’s infrastructure has radically changed for the first time in human history, losing its multi-year thick ice infrastructure. And according to NASA, 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now “seasonal ice,” that quickly melts in the Arctic summer. Considering the massive area encompassed by the 70 percent, the remaining 30 percent is starting to resemble someone hanging onto a windowsill by fingertips.

    Alas, NASA claims Arctic sea ice rarely, if ever, melted in the not-too-distant past.

    To contact the Planetary Restoration Action Group:

    John Nissen: moc.liamgnull@3002nessinnhoj

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  • The Battle for Clean Energy in Coal Country

    Montana has a long history of making money by extracting and exporting its natural resources, namely coal. State politicians and Montana’s largest electricity utility company seem set on keeping it that way. 

    Reveal’s Jonathan Jones travels to the town of Colstrip in the southeastern part of the state. It is home to one of the largest coal seams in the country – and one of the largest coal-fired power plants in the West. He learns that Montana’s largest power company, NorthWestern Energy, has expanded its stake in the plant, even though it’s the single biggest emitter of greenhouse gas in the state. Jones speaks with Colstrip’s mayor about the importance of coal mining to the local community. He also speaks to local ranchers and a tribal official who’ve been working for generations to protect the water and land from coal development.  

    Jones follows the money to the state’s capital, where lawmakers have passed some of the most extreme laws to keep the state from addressing climate change. He dives into lobbying records behind a flurry of bills that are keeping the state reliant on fossil fuels. He meets with one of the plaintiffs involved in a first-of-its-kind youth-led lawsuit. The group successfully sued Montana for violating their constitutional right to a “clean and healthful environment.” Jones also finds that NorthWestern is planning to build a new methane gas plant on the banks of the Yellowstone River, and the company is being met with resistance from people who live near the site. 

    Finally, Jones visits the state’s largest wind farm and speaks with a renewable energy expert, who says Montana can close its coal plants, never build a new gas plant and transition to 100% clean energy while reducing electricity costs for consumers. Jones also speaks with NorthWestern’s CEO and looks at other coal communities in transition.   

    This is an update of an episode that originally aired in June 2023.

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    This post was originally published on Reveal.

  • Too Much Heat, Past and Present

    The ultimate consequences of global warming are difficult to truly understand by the public, policymakers and by pretty much everybody. In their hearts, they do not want to believe it’ll cause an extinction event. That’s simply too hard to believe, going too far. People cannot wrap their minds around the idea that civilization, poof, is gone. After all, extinctions are not features of human civilization. Or are they?

    Archeologists tell us otherwise. Climate change and natural disasters have led advanced civilizations into utter ruin, extinction events. The Mayan Civilization, population 7-10 million, skilled as advanced astronomers that built elaborate cities without the use of modern-day machinery around 1500 BC went extinct. Archeologists believe the causes were: (1) environmental degradation (2) deforestation (3) soil erosion and (4) climate change altered rain patterns to bring devastating drought and famine.

    And one of the greatest civilizations of all time, the Indus Valley Civilization (2500-to-1700 BC) more than five million people with some of the world’s best architecture and amazing technology, cities of 50,000 with roads and advanced sewage systems, homes with private bathrooms, 3,500 years ago went extinct. Researchers studied isotopic concentrations of stalagmites, and other archeological evidence, analyzing 5,700 years of rainfall patterns for the region, discovering evidence of severe drought at the time the civilization ended.

    A fascinating historical study of collapsed civilizations was published by the BBC: Are We on the Road to Civilization Collapse: February 18, 2019. Excerpts to follow:

    The great historian Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975, London School of Economics and King’s College London) in his 12-volume magnum opus A Study of History analyzed the rise and fall of 28 different civilizations. He concluded: “Great civilizations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.”

    Our deep past is marked by recurring failure: “Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity, and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence. Virtually all past civilizations have faced this fate.”

    “Collapse may be a normal phenomenon for civilizations, regardless of their size and technological stage. We may be more technologically advanced now. But this gives little ground to believe that we are immune to the threats that undid our ancestors. Our newfound technological abilities even bring new, unprecedented challenges to the mix. And while our scale may now be global, collapse appears to happen to both sprawling empires (the Roman Empire for example) and fledgling kingdoms alike. There is no reason to believe that greater size is armour against societal dissolution. Our tightly coupled, globalized economic system is, if anything, more likely to make crisis spread.”

    Archeologists claim the following categories mostly influence collapse: (1) climatic change (2) environmental degradation (3) inequality and oligarchy (4) complexity, meaning how society functions; e.g., too heavy of a bureaucracy (5) external shocks like famine and plagues. Hmm.

    As of today, whether an extinction event is in the cards or not, and science has clearly shown us that extinctions do happen with well-developed civilizations, the most pressing concern is rapidly rising fossil fuel emissions and global temperature that disrupts, dislodges, and upends life. Alas, many signals indicate it’ll get worse.

    James Hansen, Earth Institute/Columbia University, predicts much higher global temperatures much sooner than the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the UN body politic of climate change.

    For decades now, Hansen’s prescience has effectively been global warming’s equivalence of Yoda-speak. As the lead NASA scientist in 1988 Hansen testified to the US Senate that the greenhouse effect had been detected, indicating that the climate was changing. Human activity, specifically burning fossil fuels, was changing the chemistry of the atmosphere and not for the better.

    Thirty-five years later, November 2023, Hansen has issued yet another warning but with much greater gravity and resonance than his 1988 warning. His landmark 1988 speech about changing the atmosphere’s chemistry has now become reality: it’s immediately before us. That warning has turned real through imagery, in real time, of massive wildfires, massive atmospheric rivers, massive droughts, extraordinarily floods, as unprecedented climate events regularly appear on nightly TV news programs.

    Now Hansen is warning that scientists are underestimating how fast the planet is warming. In fact, he’s concerned enough that he believes the impending crisis necessitates geoengineering the planet’s atmosphere. For many scientists this is not acceptable, unproven, and unnecessary.

    A recent Time magazine article “We Need Geoengineering to Stop Out of Control Warming Warns Climate Scientist James Hansen”, Time, November 2, 2023, claims few scientists share his belief that geoengineering will be necessary. Researchers challenge its efficacy and safety profile, expecting deleterious unintended consequences.

    But, as Hansen readily states, we’ve been inadvertently geoengineering the atmosphere for as long as we’ve spewed greenhouse gases, like CO2. As a society, we’re effective at changing the atmosphere’s chemistry, even though it’s not intentional. Therefore, why not re-geoengineer in the opposite direction?

    Seriously, cars, trains, planes, and industry have been geoengineering the atmosphere with CO2 for over 100 years.

    According to Hansen, something must be done soon. He believes we’ll surpass 1.5C next decade and 2C by mid-century. These are global temperature markers above pre-industrial levels that manifest big challenging issues, and far ahead of what mainstream science expects.

    For example, warming in-excess of 2C could unleash collapse of West Antarctica ice sheets, which are already compromised. The Antarctic continent is a standout feature of the planet containing 95% of the planet’s fresh water trapped in ice melted equal to 200 feet higher sea levels. Nothing more needs to be said about that.

    In fact, forget the 200 feet, which would take centuries, just the first several feet will turn the world upside down, flooding the world’s major coastal cities. High tide will become high water flood levels in the streets of America’s coastal cities. Some of this is already starting to happen; e.g., Portland’s high tide broke all-time records, reaching 14 feet at the same time as record-breaking floods hit the US East Coast, January 14th, 2024. NOAA expects sea levels along US coasts to rise as much over the next 10 years as they did over past 100 years.

    Recent flooding events are setting new all-time records. These are not run of the mill normal flooding events, not normal at all. An extreme example of the climate system’s new rambunctiousness is Pakistan’s 2022 massive flood covering one-third of the country with water, 33 million people impacted, 8 million displaced, 2 million homes destroyed, 1,700 killed, 12,867 injured, and a year later 1.5 million still displaced.

    What would be the aftermath if 2 million US homes were destroyed by flooding?

    In a recent webinar, Hansen cautioned: “The 2°C warming limit is dead, unless we take purposeful actions to alter the earth’s energy imbalance.” It’s a strong statement that few, if any, climate scientists have the guts to make.

    However, breathing the word “geoengineering” raises the hackles of many climate scientists. Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University calls Hansen’s arguments for the necessity of solar geoengineering “a misguided policy advocacy.” (Time, November 2, 2023.) According to Mann, the climate situation is extremely dire. But it can be handled by concerted efforts to decarbonize our economy, without resorting to geoengineering.

    Whereas Hansen claims: “Emissions cuts alone will not be enough to ensure a safe climate in future years, according to Hansen and his collaborators. governments will have to impose carbon fees to help rapidly draw down emissions, they argue, adding it will also be necessary to research and deploy techniques to reduce incoming solar radiation, also known as solar geoengineering.” (Time, November 2, 2023.)

    Looking ahead, how should society approach a very spooky climate system that blindsides humanity with surprise after surprise? For example, according to The Weather Network: “Atmospheric rivers are becoming so intense that we need to rank them like hurricanes.” That’s a first as atmospheric rivers are a normal feature of the climate system but like all normal features these days, human activity, goosing up global warming, has intensified normal features by a factor of 10-to-100 times. Multiply 10 times anything… it’s a lot, or how about 100 times?

    There’s paleoclimate evidence that today’s rate of CO2 emissions at over 2.0 ppm/year with resultant global warming “matching the results” of 1,000 years at 0.02 ppm/year occurring millions of years ago when only nature was involved. 2.0 ppm is 100 times faster than 0.02 ppm. That’s 100 times faster than nature, which  is the crux of the global warming problem.

    Nowadays, massive atmospheric rivers are competing with melting glaciers with flooding that can spur serious damage that major insurance companies never anticipated, as rates go up and up with some insurance coverage dropped in select states. And it’ll get worse unless and until human activity works to mitigate the interrelationship between fossil fuel emissions and global warming. James Hansen is saying we must enhance the planet’s albedo to reflect solar radiation back to outer space. There are ways to do this, maybe successful, maybe not.

    According to Hansen, Earth’s energy imbalance is completely out of whack with more energy than ever before coming into the planet as absorbed sunlight rather than going out as heat radiated to outer space. This imbalance has doubled within only one decade, according to a study by NASA and the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.  Doubling over only 14 years is downright alarming: “A positive energy imbalance – which is what we have – means the earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up.” This is no small problem; it’s big; it’s new; it threatens life-supporting ecosystems.

    Going forward, a very big question is whether a world consensus will be reached about whether, or not, geoengineering will be officially endorsed. Meanwhile, several tenuous ecosystems; e.g., Greenland’s northern-most glaciers recently discovered as “surprisingly tipsy,” implies an outlook of hesitatingly “keeping one’s fingers crossed.” According to climate scientists, there are multitudes of ecosystems bordering on dangerous tipping points.

    Yet, fortunately for all concerned, at least the planet is good at snapping back from adversity, surviving five extinction events, but what of human civilization in the face of similar adversity? According to Toynbee, the track record is lousy.

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  • The State of Capitalism’s Climate System

    Three years ago, 15,000 scientists declared a climate emergency by signing onto a State of the Climate Report. That signing led to annual updates, for example, the most recent version: The 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering Uncharted Territory, Bioscience, vol. 73, issue 12, December 2023, Oxford Academic (aka: “The Report”).

    The initial paragraph of The Report suggests a planetary juggernaut of cascading ecosystems altering life systems: “Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in uncharted territory… a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity.” Therefore, it’s fair to say nobody really knows how this uncharted territory will play out.

    The Report is a compendium of all-time climate record events depicting big-time trouble, going in the wrong direction versus maintaining a healthy planet. In and of itself, the analysis in The Report, researched and authored by top notch scientists, should be enough for world policymakers to insist upon going back to COP28 in Dubai/2023, redoing the two-week UN climate conference and adopting effective solutions to replace the mealy-mouthed inadequate proposals adopted at COP28. The world deserves better.

    Thirty years of UN climate conferences failing to move the needle to help Earth’s ecosystems thrive and survive, and not collapse, has unintentionally cast a dark shadow over scientists’ climate warnings within the context of a commanding capitalistic socio-economic system based upon infinite growth at center stage, humming along like “no worries” economic growth always bails us out, but what’s left behind?

    The Report makes the case that under the surface, and not clearly visible to society, a monstrosity of ecosystem turmoil threatens the entire foundation of capitalistic growth. The Report’s warnings are real, not fictional, not misleading but real warnings of a premature collapsing Earth system that’s the foundation for everything. This challenging situation has progressively gotten worse by the year, but it’s now starting to burst at the seams. The year 2023 exposed an off the charts dangerous climate system broadcasts on nightly news programs reporting massive wildfires, massive flooding, massive droughts, massive atmospheric rivers, massive everything, never witnessed previously. Scientists believe it’ll get worse.

    According to the scientists: “We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered. Conditions are going to get very distressing and potentially unmanageable for large regions of the world… We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems… Massive suffering due to climate change is already here, and we have now exceeded many safe and just Earth system boundaries, imperiling stability and life-support systems.”

    The Report states that 20 of 35 vital planetary signs are now at record extremes. This means that nearly 60% of the planet is huffing and puffing to stay on track of life-sourcing support. For example, the chart of Ocean Heat Content shows a nearly vertical upward thrust. This is viewed by scientists as especially troubling because of the knockoff impacts, including loss of sea life, coral reef bleaching, and intensified tropical storms. Hidden from view, the world’s oceans are under severe stress, not to mention extremely abusive overfishing, especially China’s inordinately large distant water fishing fleet of thousands of trawlers (“world’s worst abuser of sea laws” – IUU Fishing Index, US Coast Guard).

    With 60% of the planet limping and few, if any, serious signs of governmental policy helping the 20 vital signs in various stages of deterioration, The Report addresses the root cause of trouble by identifying cause and effect; i.e., the ecological footprint of economic activity overwhelms any chances to heal the planet. In short, infinite economic growth and a steady state planet are like oil and water that do not mix.

    According to the scientists, “economic growth, as it is conventionally pursued, is unlikely to allow us to achieve our social, climate, and biodiversity goals. The fundamental challenge lies in the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from harmful environmental impacts.”

    More to the point, egregious, superfluous, redundant, unneeded wealth creation is at the heart of the problem. As it happens, sixty percent (60%) of planetary ecosystems hobbling along on crutches is the result of 10% of the world population enjoying a great ride at the top of a great economic bubble expanding year by year, as this minority of people lead the best possible lifestyle in classic double or triple or quadruple, or maybe even as much as 100 to 1,000 times overshoot. The 10% global footprint tramples the lowly 90%.

    In a faux complexity of hopefulness, many GDP models assume that growth can be decoupled from emissions and from consumption-oriented environmental impacts and all will be hunky-dory, e.g., carbon capture will bail us out of the global warming imbroglio. However, The Report makes special mention of such assumptions as not realistic: “Negative emissions technologies are in an early stage of development, posing uncertainties regarding their effectiveness, scalability, and environmental and societal impacts. As such, we should not rely on unproven carbon removal techniques.”

    In the final analysis, the hard truth is fossil fuel emissions must be halted at the source as soon as possible or future state of the planet reports will show surrealistic evidence of a sickly planet. At some point in time this image of a sickly planet will become unbearable, and the masses will turn extremely restless, similar to unwelcomed disruptions, as well as threats of disruptions, already becoming evident throughout the globe. Under the circumstances, this type of behavior is not at all surprising. After all, it’s only too obvious that nearly two-thirds of the planet’s vital signs are flashing code red, not code yellow. It’s too late for caution when immediate action is required.

    According to the scientific evidence, the underlying message is clear: Do something different. The current trajectory is not working. What could policymakers of the world do differently to put the planet back to a steady state so that it doesn’t flame out near term? Climate change, like a wild roller coaster ride, is full of surprising turns and sudden rapid descent.

    The Report contains ideas to hopefully shake off what looks like an inevitability of more and more failing ecosystems: “The fundamental challenge lies in the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from harmful environmental impacts. Although technological advancements and efficiency improvements can contribute to some degree of decoupling, they often fall short in mitigating the overall ecological footprint of economic activities. The impacts vary greatly by wealth; in 2019, the top 10% of emitters were responsible for 48% of global emissions, whereas the bottom 50% were responsible for just 12%. We therefore need to change our economy to a system that supports meeting basic needs for all people instead of excessive consumption by the wealthy.”

    Frankly, that sounds like some version of socialism, but in America socialism is equated to Mephistopheles. But what if that’s not really true? What if socialism benefits everybody, except for the one percent?

    Broadly speaking, The Report recommends: “Efforts must be directed toward eliminating emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change and increasing carbon sequestration with nature-based climate solutions.” All of which is doable., but honestly, that’s an often-repeated prescription that never seems to stick, never gains traction.  If otherwise, if it gained traction, over time The State of the Climate Reports would fade into the sunset without anything to write about.

    Nevertheless, the ecological overshoot of human demands on natural resources, or overexploitation, is seemingly an insurmountable issue that points a finger at endless growth and its sidekick overconsumption by rich countries and wealthy individuals. And since socialism is out of the running to fix ecological overshoot, one way forward is a circular economy. Instead of a throw-away economic system, learn to recirculate across the board, like British economist Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics designed to avoid ecological overshoot.

    In the final analysis, The Report is more relevant now than ever before simply because nearly 2/3rds of the planet’s vital signs are screaming for help, but none is forthcoming.  Therefore, and unfortunately, The Report is destined to grow and grow as ecosystems fail one by one, until one day Eureka! The State of the Climate Report will become sought after and studied and discussed by policymakers standing knee-deep in water.

    Realistically, the issues described within this article about the state of the climate system do not get as much attention as warranted by policymakers or by the public. Assuming this article is read, the gist 0f it, alas, may be tossed aside as easily and quickly as our disposable-oriented society tosses aside paper wrappers, plastic containers, and pretty much everything, including nuclear waste, but where to?

    Meanwhile, of special interest, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion (XR) Roger Hallam has decided to accept the inevitability of collapsing ecosystems. He is turning his focus away from climate demonstrations and disruptions of society, gluing people to buildings, roadways, and airplanes to the discovery of a new type of civilization. He’ll be conducting a worldwide zoom session January 14th at 8:00 AM Pacific Coast time. It’ll be a rare opportunity to learn about and/or join a new world order that’s not sinister. To register for the zoom meeting: Here’s the link.

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  • Antarctica Under Siege and XR Takes a Radical Turn

    Antarctica has finally succumbed to rapid climate change. This past year (2023) brought changes to the icy continent that left climate scientists feeling a “punch in the gut.” (“Red Alert in Antarctica: The Year Rapid Dramatic Change Hit Climate Scientists Like a “Punch in the Guts“, The Guardian, December 30, 3023.)

    Antarctic sea ice cover crashed for six months straight to a level so far below anything else on the satellite record that scientists struggled for adjectives to describe what they were witnessing.

    Global warming’s impact on Antarctica is serious, dangerous, threatening, hard to believe, and maybe unstoppable. Warnings like this, but not as serious as this, have been happening for years. As a result, too much negativity has turned the public numb to climate change. It’s been an endless stream of bad news that never gets good, always bad. But, in all honesty, that’s the nature of the beast unless reality is simply ignored.

    Mainstream news recognizes the frustration, for example: “Global efforts to reach net-zero carbon emissions are failing in almost every way, with one exception: the boom in electric vehicles.” (Source: “EVs Are the Only Bright Spot in Climate Fight, Study Shows”, Bloomberg, November 14, 2023.)

    At the other end of the spectrum, Extinction Rebellion -XR- famous for gluing people to airplanes, roadways, and fossil fuel hdqs doorways, and one of the most famous or infamous (take your pick) internationally organized groups against the root causes of global warming has heard enough bad news. It’s changing strategy by accepting reality.

    Co-founder Roger Hallam just took XR off the streets, so to speak, with his 2024 new year email broadcast: “Balance: Building the Next Civilization in 2024,” which is a brilliant practical strategic change of heart. In Roger’s words: “Look, the carbon regime has totally fucked up, so the climate crisis is now locked in. We don’t need to create massive social disruption because it’s going to happen anyway! The regime will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. So, what next? We need to build the next civilization and stop fascism from taking us to a terminal hell.”

    Roger sees the inevitability of what’s already set in motion, including the burgeoning fascist movement, and he sees the rotted failure of UN climate conferences (for over 30 years now) not addressing the root cause of ecosystem destruction. As a result, nothing is going to be done soon enough to make a difference. All the chatter about nuclear power and tripling renewables, blah-blah-blah, at the end of the day, will be greenwashing to appease people who see one “natural disaster” unfold after another on nightly news over the past couple of years, massive floods, massive droughts, massive storms, massive wildfires, and massive atmospheric rivers. Everything is massive these days.

    In the real world, none of the proposed solutions for climate change meet the “scale of the problem” after more than 200 years of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Climate change is climate change is climate change, the same for eons, but the 21st century brand is radically different from anything in the paleoclimate record because it’s 10 times faster, in some instances 100 times faster. than ever before in paleoclimate history. Humans can’t keep up with the biogeological turbocharged monster. Scientists complain it’s happening so much faster than their models.

    Ipso facto, ecosystems teeter throughout the planet; e.g., Greenland, in bad shape. Some scientists don’t even want to talk about Greenland any longer once it rained for the first time in recorded history at the Summit, 10,551 feet elevation.

    A recent study about Greenland’s past is horrifying: “A recently discovered ice core taken from beneath the ice sheet decades ago has revealed that a large part was ice-free around 400,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to those what we are now approaching. It’s an alarming finding that has implications for sea level rise. The study overturns previous assumptions that most of Greenland’s ice sheet was frozen for millions of years. Instead, moderate, natural warming led to large-scale melting and sea level rise of more than 1.4 meters (4.6 feet), according to the report in the journal Science.” The lead author of the study, Paul Bierman, University of Vermont: “When you look at what nature did in the past, as geoscientists, that’s our best clue to the future.” (“Long Lost Greenland Ice Core Suggest Potential for Disastrous Sea Level Rise”, CNN, July 20, 2023.)

    Interestingly, and nerve-wracking, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today are 1.5 times higher than 400,000 years ago when sea levels increased 4.6 feet. Melt events take time but how much time nobody knows.

    According to Copernicus ‘Ice Sheets’, since 1980 the rate of ice mass loss tripled for Greenland (pre-1980s, it was stable and in balance) and Antarctica. And now accelerating. Tripling the rate of ice mass loss of the two largest chunks of ice on the planet is impossible to fathom.

    According to the science, Antarctica is in big trouble, and it may be irreversible. Coastal cities could be under water; it’s just a matter of time; nobody knows how soon or later, but at the current rate of global fossil fuel emissions, it looks grim. After all, the fossil fuel industry has publicly announced intentions to go full-bore, like there’s no tomorrow, they are cranking up oil production big time, according to statements by big oil companies.  “Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the level deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.” (“Global Fossil Fuel Production Plans Far Exceed Climate Targets, UN Says”, Reuters, November 8, 2023.)

    Massively increasing oil production conforms to a recent James Hansen (Earth Institute-Columbia University) publication about exceeding the world’s most recognizable threshold, aka: the danger zone, the Climate Maginot Line or 2C above pre-industrial. Hansen’s prediction is way ahead of expectations, the upcoming decade, the 2030s.  That’s early! It should be noted that scientists claim exceeding 2C wreaks havoc with life-sourcing ecosystems. For example, it’s already happening at above 2C with Arctic permafrost melting 2-4 times the average of global warming. Arctic rivers turn toxic and orange, one of the biggest sore thumbs on the planet, but Antarctica, the Amazon rainforest, Greenland, and the Great Barrier Reef are challenging.

    A British Antarctic Survey found the record drop in sea ice led to a catastrophic breeding failure for animals. Meanwhile, East Antarctica recorded its biggest heatwave ever at 39C above normal. And making matters worse, a major study published in Nature found meltwater slowing down, by a nerve-rattling 30%, Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation; this has huge negative implications for global weather, especially for northern Europe, which could lose its warm tropical current flow. And the implications for marine life are a major concern.

    Meantime, West Antarctica melting has tripled, and studies show accelerated melting of the ice shelves has locked in a cascading impact for West Antarctica which is in much worse shape than its eastern cousin.

    Even worse yet for sea level rise expectations, Antarctica’s enormous loss of sea ice was never expected so early. According to Tony Press, former head of the Australian Antarctic Division: “There’s a chance that it could come back again, but there’s also a very, very high chance that sea ice in Antarctica has moved into a new state… You would not be an alarmist if you said you were really worried about that. ” (Ibid.)

    Researchers claim a permanent loss of sea ice would accelerate ocean warming, as dark water absorbs more heat than ice and amplifies the rate of global sea level rise by removing a buffer protecting the continent’s ice shelves.

    Antarctica, like so many other ecosystems throughout the globe, such as the Amazon rainforest (20% gone for good, 40% severely degraded) no longer adhere to the flow of Mother Nature. Human activity dictates the flow.

    Roger Hallam, co-founder of XR, has seen the future, and it’s an analog of the past but much worse. Now, he’s searching for answers to building the next civilization. Not a bad idea. But where?

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  • Alaska’s Scary Orange Rivers

    Global warming can add one more notch to its gun belt. The rapid onset of global warming is turning Alaska’s wilderness rivers orange. Global warming impacts Arctic temperatures 2-4 times warmer than the global average, and permafrost that’s been around since before humans sat round crackling cave fires is rapidly melting. Eons of frozen stuff is making its first appearance in tens of thousands of years, clobbering wilderness rivers with deadly toxicity.

    Researchers believe the cause(s) is/are (1) acid from minerals leaching iron out of bedrock exposed to water for the first time in millennia and/or (2) bacteria mobilizing iron from the permafrost soil in thawing wetlands prompted by global warming.

    A group of scientists at Alaska’s Kobuk Valley National Park reported numerous sightings of orange river water 60 miles from the nearest villages and 250 miles from road systems. Patrick Sullivan, an ecologist/University of Alaska, Anchorage, analyzed a screen of a sensor he had dipped into the water: “This is bad stuff.” (“Why Are Alaska‘s Rivers Turning Orange?” Scientific American, January 1, 2024.)

    Dissolved oxygen in the orangish water was very low, the pH factor was 6.4 or 100 times more acidic than normal, and the electrical conductivity of the orange water was similar to industrial wastewater. Sullivan, stating the obvious: “Don’t drink this water.”  (Ibid.) . Honestly, think about the level of ridiculousness, it’s pristine (normally) drinkable water in the vast wilderness.

    The scientists started their investigation of the water near the entry point of one of many streams to Salmon River that runs south from the peaks of Brooks Range, Alaska, known as “the last frontier,” which is a 650-mile line of slopes that separates northern Alaska from the rumbling Arctic coastline. A federal government act designated the Salmon River as a wild and scenic river with “water of exceptional clarity with deep luminescent blue-green pools and large runs of chum and pink salmon.” Sullivan: “It was a famous, pristine river ecosystem, and it feels like it’s completely collapsing now.” (Ibid.)

    Ultimately, the Brooks Range rivers flow into the Arctic and Pacific Oceans.

    Similar fate is discoloring rivers and streams throughout the Brooks Range. The researchers believe Russia and Canada are likely experiencing the same. Timothy Lyons, geochemist, University of California/Riverside said: “Almost certainly it is happening in other parts of the Arctic.” (Ibid.)

    The scientists who studied the Range agree the major cause is climate change. For example, Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4°C since 2006, and it’s believed the excessive heat has already begun thawing up to 40% of the permafrost. This is a good example of why global climate meetings, like COP28 recently held in Dubai, must come to grips with putting a stop to fossil fuel emissions, the number one agent on behalf of excessively harmful global warming.

    The Brooks Range group of scientists conducted the first ever comprehensive sampling of an entire watershed on a six-day mission down the Salmon River. They believe a combination of (1) acid from minerals leaching iron out of bedrock exposed to water for the first time in millennia and/or (2) bacteria mobilizing iron from the permafrost soil in thawing wetlands is/are behind the dirty deeds, which means rusting will gradually “smother streams almost anywhere there’s permafrost,” inclusive of one-fourth of the entire Northern Hemisphere. This is a prime example of how far-reaching excessive global warming destroys the most pristine ecosystems on the planet and speaks to the necessity of halting fossil fuel emissions, yesterday. After all, this is what happens at 2°C above pre-industrial, ecosystems collapse. Only recently, Dr. James Hansen/Columbia University shocked science by saying 2°C will arrive during the 2030s, way-way earlier than IPCC projections.

    Traversing the river, they found murky water over orange rocks where only a couple of years ago it was clear and full of fish, not now. At some spots the water ran half orange and half green and at others further downstream the river had the color and opacity of pea soup. Forrest McCarthy, a former US Antarctic Program coordinator, claimed: “Most climate change is subtle. This is like, bam!” Scientists claim they could not find any fish or insects in some areas of the Range, stating: “Biodiversity just crashed.”  (Ibid.)

    Meanwhile, 50 miles west of Salmon, the Agashashok River also turned orange-brown. Sullivan and company expressed shock by how fast streams started transforming; e.g., Clear Creek water was so acidic that it curdled the powered milk used for nightly tea, as the scientists traversed the Range.

    On a trip to Timber Creek, 20 miles west of Salmon River, one of the members of the team who had fly-fished in the creek a few years ago, discovered: “More iron than fish… I looked at the creek, and I said, ‘this creek is dead. It’s just blanketed with metals,” Ibid. It’s what’s found in a national park, in the wilderness, don’t think about it too much, it’s deadly.

    Additionally, the team discovered several blackened, dark ground patches the color of fresh asphalt scattered throughout the Range. At one patch they took a sample of the trickling water flowing out of a dark patch. It had a pH factor of 2.95, like vinegar. The ground burn was caused by acid, and according to the team: “If it’s got that low of a pH… it’s actively burning. There’s at least a dozen burns in this valley.” (Ibid.)

    Brooks Range, Alaska is a preeminent example of how global warming enhanced by, driven by, fossil fuel emissions from cars, trains, and planes and industry impacts the most precious ecosystems of the planet where nobody lives but where life is supposed to thrive. It isn’t thriving any longer. Only an international forum like the UN climate change conferences held yearly, called COP, can come close to fixing this open sore on the planet, maybe?

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  • COP28’s Unrealistic Tripling of Nuclear Power

    UN climate conferences since 1992 have failed to follow thru with results, as CO2 emissions continue higher and higher with every passing year. In fact, post climate conference impact of adopted proposals has become something 0f an inside joke. The most recent conference, COP28, embraced nuclear power as a godsend challenging climate change.

    “Triple Nuclear Power” still echoes throughout the halls of COP28. If one stands at the podium in the convention center now empty and listens intently, echoes reverberate “triple nuclear power” spewing out of red-faced maniacs from over 20 countries that committed to tripling nuclear power to bail our global asses out of a crazed climate system of epic proportions.

    The US, UK, UAE, and others signed a declaration. Since they couldn’t budge oil and gas, it was decided to favor nuclear power as a surrogate for fixing the rip snorting global heating imbroglio found from pole to pole, from ocean to ocean. It’s real, it’s palpable; it’s now, much earlier than forecasts, as 1.5C prematurely comes to surface during irregular episodes.

    Yet, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the declaration by 22 countries calling for a tripling of nuclear energy by 2050 is more fantasy than reality:

    Even at best, a shift to invest more heavily in nuclear energy over the next two decades could actually worsen the climate crisis, as cheaper, quicker alternatives are ignored for more expensive, slow-to-deploy nuclear reactors.

    — Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 13th, 2023,

    Building nuclear power facilities has a long history that unfortunately casts a doubtful shadow over the idea of tripling by 2050. A now-famous plan by Princeton University in 2004 called for a “stabilization wedge” to avoid one billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2055 by building 700 large nuclear reactors over 50 years.

    In 2022, there were 416 operating reactors in the world. Starting in 2005 when the Princeton plan was announced, it would have meant building 14 reactors per year, assuming all existing reactors continued to function. However, over the 50-year cycle aging reactors and those going into retirement would ultimately require 40 new reactors per year. But throughout the entire history of nuclear power, on average 10 nuclear power plants connected to the electricity grid per year, and the number of new units was only 5 per year from 2011-2021.

    Once again, like the sticky issue of direct carbon capture, achieving the scale of proposed solutions to climate change’s biggest weapon, or global warming, is beyond reality. Talk is cheap.

    Meanwhile less expensive safer wind and solar easily trounce nuclear power’s newly installed output, by a country mile, to wit:

    New nuclear energy capacity 2000-2020    42 GWe

    New wind capacity from 2000-2020          605 GWe

    New solar capacity from 2000-2020          578 GWe

    Nuclear costs are prohibitively high: It’ll cost $15 trillion to triple nuclear capacity, assuming existing reactors continue to function, which will not be the case, raising this big bet well over $15T. Who’s putting up $15T?

    And is there enough time to triple by 2050? From design to projected operation of the NuScale VOYGR plant takes 13 years. According to the International Energy Agency, the design and build phase for a country’s first nuclear reactor is 15 years. Several countries that signed on to the declaration to triple nuclear power are newbies.

    According to a Foreign Policy article, December 13th, 2023 entitled: COP28’s Dramatic But Empty Nuclear Pledge: several reasons for skepticism about the nuclear energy triple buildout were enumerated, concluding:

    The combination of macroeconomic pressures and regulatory restrictions means that neither pledges such as those made at COP28 nor memorandums of understanding with various industries, utilities, and governments should give anyone much confidence that a major expansion of nuclear energy is forthcoming.

    Nuclear expert Mycle Schneider, the lead author of the prestigious World Nuclear Industry Status Report (500 pgs.) now in in its 18th edition known for its fact-based approach on details of operation, construction, and decommissioning of the world’s reactors was recently interviewed by the Bulletin:  Schneider’s publication is considered the landmark study of the industry.

    Regarding NuScale, the US-based company that develops America’s flagship SMR (Small Nuclear Reactors), the company initially promised in 2008 to start generating power by 2015. As of 2023, they haven’t started construction of a single reactor. They do not have a certification license for the model they promoted for a Utah municipality. NuScale’s six module facility would cost $20,000 per kilowatt installed, twice as expensive as the most expensive large-scale reactors in Europe. And SMRs will generate disproportionate amounts of nuclear waste. No bargain here, assuming it even works efficiently enough, which is doubtful.

    Schneider:

    The entire logic that has been built up for small modular reactors is with the background of climate change emergency. That’s the big problem we have.

    A sense of urgency cannot be met:

    Considering the status of development, we’re not going to see any SMR generating power before the 2030s. It’s very clear: none. And if we are talking about SMRs picking up any kind of substantial amounts of generating capacity in the current market, if ever, we’re talking about the 2040s at the very earliest.

    Schneider on COP’s pledge to triple nuclear power:

    From an industrial point of view, to put this pledge into reality. To me, this pledge is very close to absurd, compared to what the industry has shown.

    Looked at another way:

    It took 70 years to bring global nuclear capacity to the current level of 370 gigawatts (GW), and the industry must now select technologies, raise finance and develop the rules to build another 740 GW in half that time… Why would anyone spend a single dollar on a technology that, if planned today, won’t even be available to help until 2035-2045?

    — Mark Jacobson, an energy specialist at Stanford University, “Nuclear Sector Must Overcome Decades of Stagnation to Meet COP28 Tripling“, Reuters, December. 7, 2023.

    How about $15 trillion?

    COP28 did not deliver on phase down of fossil fuels, and it’ll likely miss on tripling nuclear power. But once the results are finally known, it’s too late. The heat’s already on.

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  • False Transitions and Global Stocktakes: The Failure of COP28

    The time has come to treat the sequence of UN Climate Change Conferences, the latest concluding in Dubai, as a series of the failed and the abysmally rotten.  It shows how a worthless activity, caked (oiled?) with appropriately chosen words, can actually provide assurance that something worthwhile was done.  Along the way, there are always the same beneficiaries: fossil fuel magnates and satirists.

    COP28, which featured 97,000 participants, including the weighty presence of 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists, was even more of a shambles than its predecessor.  Its location – in an oil rich state – was head scratching.  Its chairman Sultan Al Jaber, taking advantage of the various parties who would attend, had sought to cultivate some side business for the United Arab Emirates, notably for the state oil company ADNOC.

    This did not deter UN climate change bureaucrats and negotiators, who seemed to equate climate change policy with an account of goods held by a business.  Consider the wording of the COP Agreement released on December 13: “The global stocktake is considered the central outcome of COP28 – as it contains every element that was under negotiation and can now be used by countries to develop stronger climate action plans due by 2025.”  It was a “global stocktake” supposedly signalling the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, to be facilitated by “laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emission cuts and scaled-up finance.”

    These words have been treated as sacerdotal by many of its participants, the be all and end all, the event’s great culmination.  But long hours of deliberation can confuse effort with achievement, and this proved to be no exception.  Tinkering with meaning can be taken as a triumph.  Recognising words such as “fossil fuels” and “science” can make delegates weak at the knees.  Promises to set targets for a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) make others swoon.

    It was such tinkering that led to the call for a “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable way with developed countries continuing to take the lead.”  The emphasis here is on a “transition away” from their use, not their “phase out”, which is what 130 of the 198 participating parties were willing to accept.

    The term “phase-down” was used regarding “unabated coal power” while “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” would be phased out, presumably leaving the question open as to what, exactly, efficient subsidies might look like.  Parties were also “encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with the 1.5°C in their next round of climate action plans (known as nationally determined contributions) by 2025.”

    Jaber was in a gleeful mood at the outcome.  The naysayers’ warning that the summit would be an unmitigated failure had been disproved.  “Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction.  We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5°C within reach.  It is a plan that is led by the science.”

    US climate change envoy John Kerry thought the document convincing: it sent “very strong messages to the world” providing a much firmer statement on preventing global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit.  Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen seemed to angle for praise in noting that his country, being “an oil rich country surrounded by oil countries that are now signing a piece of paper saying we need to move away from oil” was “historic”.

    The agreement had an eager audience desperate to identify signs of progress.  Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization called the COP28 agreement “historic in that – for the first time – it recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time.”  Even the Scientific American made the observation that none of the previous 27 climate change conferences had even mentioned fossil fuels and its link to a rise in global temperatures.

    A good gaggle of climatologists and geophysicists were less enthused.  “The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels,” opined Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, “was devastating.”  To use such an expression as “‘transition away from fossil fuels’ was weak tea at best.  It’s like promising your doctor that you will ‘transition away from doughnuts’ after being diagnosed with diabetes.”

    An editorial in Nature was also steely in rejecting the way science had been manipulated at the summit, noting Jaber’s own declaration on November 21 that there was no scientific basis that would necessitate phasing out fossil fuels to restrict global warming to the agreed limit.  While the editorial had gone to press before the release of the final agreement, the journal was correct in assuming that it “would not include language on phasing out fossil fuels.  That is more than a missed opportunity.  It is dangerous.”

    The dangers are considerable, given the number of transitioning states.  They include, for instance, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who seeks the expansion of renewable energy while building coal-burning power plants, and the current US administration, whose Bureau of Land Management approved more oil and gas leases on federal lands in the first two years and seven months than the previous Trump administration did over the equivalent period.  In the usual doublespeak of the Biden administration, such a policy could comfortably exist alongside its overall green strategy.

    As weak tea as the document is, it’s not even binding.  Countries can still pursue fossil fuel projects, at the behest of strong coal, gas and oil lobbies, even as they claim to be pursuing abating technologies that supposedly minimise emissions.  In Australia, opposition spokesman for climate change and energy Ted O’Brien provided something of an exemplar of this.  “While the final communique names fossil fuels, it also promotes carbon, capture and storage as abating technology for such fuels along with nuclear energy which can be a zero-emission substitute.”

    The record of actions taken to such agreements is not promising.  For one, COP28 seemed riddled with pledges and gestures, a matter of theatre.  The heralded “loss and damage fund” received commitments to the total of US$700 million, but this is wretchedly meagre when compared to the annual US$200 to US$400 billion required by Africa alone, let alone the US$400 billion a year for climate change adaptation.

    Debates of herculean obstinacy over word changes in a text can spell the doom of its object.  In future experiments in hot air summitry of the sort witnessed at Dubai, the powerful and wealthy will have room to stretch and delay meaningful change, adopting that famous plea by St. Augustine: “Please God, make me good, but not just yet.”

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  • Global Warming Slices and Dices Greenland

    Greenland’s ice sheet is under pressure from human-induced climate change. (Image credit: Paul Souders/Getty Images)

    Northern Greenland is under attack by global warming at the same time as delegates to COP28 heap praise on a purported landmark deal to transition out of fossil fuels but beware of the true meaning behind the language. Its disingenuousness is a stamp of approval for much more climate upheaval imprinted onto one more UN Conference of the Parties, COP flop.

    According to Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London:

    The lukewarm agreement reached at COP28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses. It’s hailed as a compromise, but we need to be very clear what has been compromised. The short-term financial interests of a few have again won over the health, lives and livelihoods of most people living on this planet.” (“COP28: Landmark Deal to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels Agreed- As It Happened”, The Guardian, December 13, 2023.)

    Down to Earth’s publication dated December 14, 2023, hit the nail on the head re COP28:

    Despite the hottest summer in 120,000 years, the oil, gas, coal, and farming companies that are heating the planet can continue to expand production for the foreseeable future.

    Meanwhile, new research has identified extremely disturbing deep trouble brewing in Greenland: Three of eight major ice shelves in the northern region have collapsed or retreated, leaving five ice shelves as gigantic corks holding back major glaciers from rapidly flowing into the sea, in turn, raising sea levels beyond comfort levels. The three biggest are Petermann, Ryder, and Nioghalvfierbrae. This threesome alone equals 3.6 feet of sea level rise. (“Alarming Collapse of Greenland Ice Shelves Sparks Warning of Sea Level Rise”, LiveScience, November 2023.)

    A separate study by Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences/The University of Texas found Greenland’s glaciers melting 100 times faster than previously thought. (K Schulz, et al, “An Improved and Observationally Constrained Melt Rate Parameterization for Vertical Ice Fronts of Marine Terminating Glaciers”, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 18, September  20, 2022.)

    Moreover, according to the Oden study:

    The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is a major predictor of sea level rise. This frozen stretch of glaciers is the second largest on Earth and covers about 80% of the Nordic nation. If it melts entirely, as it did at the height of the Eemian interglacial period about 125,000 years ago, global sea levels could rise by 20 feet—or approximately 6.1 meters.

    An entire meltdown would take centuries, but we’re only concerned with the first several feet which will likely happen this 21st century, enough to flood coastal cities, for example, wiping out Miami Beach, unless Florida encircles the entire state with a gigantic seawall creating a medieval city/state moat.

    For as long as anybody can remember, the eight ice shelves in the northern region of Greenland were always stable. However, stability has suddenly disintegrated, according to the report:

    We show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses. (R. Millan, et al, “Rapid Disintegration and Weakening of Ice Shelves in North Greenland”, Nature Communications, November 2023.)

    There’s no emphasis required to know that COP28’s greenwashing compromise and the global warming threat to Greenland are not only interrelated but really bad news. And, once again, it exposes the hollowness of annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP) that should address the compelling issue of excessive CO2 emissions creating a blanket trapping global heat. Ipso facto, Greenland’s glaciers, 100 times faster, start filling up the oceans. This, in turn, creates the mystery of all mysteries as nobody knows how high, or when, sea level rise overwhelms coastal metropolises.  But based upon the feebleness of 30+years of COP meetings that are attended by world leaders (154 heads of state at COP28), it looks dismal.

    Amongst the referenced ice shelves, the Peterman ice shelf is a focal point. It lies at the seaward end of a deep sub-ice canyon that could open-up ocean penetration into the center of the entire Greenland ice sheet. The initial step to such a horrifying prospect would be loss of Peterman’s ice shelf.

    Ice shelves are the parts of an ice sheet that float on the water, preventing glaciers on the land from slipping into and melting in the ocean, which would increase sea levels. If the glaciers the North Greenland ice shelves support were to collapse, sea levels could rise by nearly 7 feet (2.1 meters). (LiveScience report)

    Therefore, the Millan scientific analysis should raise eyebrows of policymakers to the necessity of immediate powerful mitigation measures, not mealymouthed halfway-commitments that are broadcast as “landmarks,” oh, please! Yet brokenheartedly, the recently concluded Dubai 28th annual UN climate conference did not address the issue of excessive CO2 emissions forcing increased warming, other than to stress “transitioning” out of fossil fuels pretty much on a ho-hum basis. This approach has not worked for more than 30 years of COP meetings, frustration reigns supreme. According to COP28 president Al-Jaber, COP28 is a “true victory,” but “his comments clash with reactions by scientists who have praised parts of the UAE consensus but criticized its vague, weak and caveated language on fossil fuels, which are the main cause of climate change.” (The Guardian, December 13, 2023.)

    As a result of decades of weak COPs, there’s a price to be paid: “We are heading toward an ice-shelf-free Northern Hemisphere.” (Millan) The implications are horrendous and impossible to describe and based upon the results of COP28, a major question going forward is whether adaptation measures, such as tall seawalls, can be erected ahead of rising sea levels?

    The results of too much ocean heat (oceans absorb 80-90% of planetary heat) entering underneath the ice shelves has been studied in detail by scientists based at institutions in France, the US, and Denmark, using satellite data, ocean observations, and climate modeling to measure changes in the ice shelves’ spatial area and thickness. Grounding lines where the ice shelves come aground were evaluated. The areas where the floating shelves end, and the grounded glacier begins are retreating inland across nearly all the shelves, a key sign of weakening. This is a prime example of the nemesis of global warming fueled by rising CO2 emissions at work. COP28 was supposed to deal with issues like this. It did not.

    As previously mentioned, Greenland’s ice shelf melt down is 100 times faster than expectations by the scientists, as of 2022. It’s literally impossible to drive a car 100 times faster than cruising speed; it cannot physically be done; yet humongous ice shelves are melting 100 times faster. It’s something to think about.

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  • Climate TRACE Detects Underreported Soaring Emissions

    COP28, the UN Conference of the Parties in oil-rich Dubai currently underway will not resolve the issue of oil and gas companies agreeing to slow down oil production. To the contrary, all signals point to an increase according to formal plans already laid out by the industry, as stated by the International Energy Agency. Reuters November 2023 headline says it all: “Global Fossil Fuel Production Plans Far Exceed Climate Targets”.

    Greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rip roar, snort, huff and puff higher ever higher post COP28. It’s guaranteed. The oil companies insist upon it. And a new kid on the block named Climate TRACE, launched July 2020, will be monitoring them with remarkable accuracy.

    According to a stunning report released at COP28 by Climate TRACE (Independent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tracking) emissions have been soaring well beyond official statistics reported by countries. Needless to say, this is really awful news for a global climate system that’s already gone bonkers because of excessive levels of greenhouse gases. And, of course, it can only mean that we’ll continue to live in a Bonkers World gone crazy with off-the-charts rip-snorting craziness like temperature changes forcing migrants and nature’s resources northward bound as the equatorial turns barren and useless.

    “IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which advises the UN) has understated global warming in the pipeline and understated fossil fuel emissions in the pipeline via lack of realism in the Integrated Assessment Models that IPCC uses for climate projections.” (James Hansen, “A Miracle Will Occur” Is Not Sensible Climate Policy”, December  7, 2023.)

    And, of course, there’s this: “According to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 75% of Spain’s land is battling climatic conditions that could lead to desertification… And that means soils which are unable to retain water or organic matter, that cannot support crops or nourish livestock—which is a matter of huge concern in a country where agriculture accounts for annual exports of some 60 billion euros ($66 billion).” (“Spain Worries Over ‘Lifeless Land’ Amid Creeping Desertification”, Phys.org, August 1, 2023.)

    All of which is the end result, in part, of limp Saudi feudalism, and affiliated feudalistic monarchies, dictating policy in a modern overcrowded world (more on this to follow).

    Thanks to Climate TRACE, we now know a lot more about global emissions because of its pinpoint accuracy, who’s cheating, who’s not reporting, who’s underreporting, uncovering smoke screens across the globe. And better yet, for the first time ever, climate advocates… Yes, people like you! … have direct access to personally follow worldwide emissions with an accuracy that is simply out-of-this-world wonderful. Climate TRACE is a spectacular newcomer for measurement of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, and it’s open to the public, simply click on the link: Climate TRACE.

    Meantime. at COP28 the overall situation has gotten a bit testy, in fact, quarrelsome. Not only has Sultan Al-Jaber, the president of this year’s COP, been caught red-handed with his hand jammed down into the cookie jar, but it should also be noted that one country at COP28 can veto an agreement by all of the nations. If that sounds ridiculous, a country holding the world hostage, indeed, it is obscenely ridiculous because it allows one outlaw country to dictate terms to the world. And it happened!

    The negotiations rely upon “consensus from all countries,” but Saudi Arabia has already flipped the bird at the delegates by publicly notifying them of its intention to block any restrictions on oil production. The Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said “Absolutely Not” to any language coming out of the conference that relates to fossil fuel “phase down.” The American Petroleum Institute, amidst a swimming mass of 1,300 fossil fuel lobbyists (setting a COP record) claims: “A fossil fuel phaseout is misguided.” (The New York Times)

    With only two words spoken, Saudi Arabia now rules the world.

    Unless, somehow, someway, Al Gore successfully manages to change the rules for next year by bringing together advocates to push for reform that allows decisions to be made by a “super majority of countries” rather than consensus. It’s the only way to stop a country stuck in traditions of the Middle Ages (500-1400) from ruling, and ruining, the 21st century. Does that make sense?

    Meanwhile, Climate TRACE has unveiled countries that have been issuing inaccurate emissions figures, specifically China, India, and the United States as under-reporters. Since 2015 the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions have occurred at those three that fail to accurately report.

    “Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US, have produced the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions since 2015, when the Paris climate agreement was signed, new data has shown.” (“Greenhouse Gas Emissions Soar – With China, US and India Most at Fault”, The Guardian, December 3, 2023.)

    According to Climate TRACE’s release at COP28: DUBAI, UAE — 3 December 2023 — “Today, Climate TRACE published an inventory of unprecedented granularity that pinpoints nearly every major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world and provides independently produced estimates of how much each emits. Encompassing human-caused emissions from facilities — including power plants, steel mills, ships, and oil refineries — and other emitting activities — including fertilizer application, deforestation, and wildfires — Climate TRACE’s expanded database now tracks GHG emissions from more than 352 million assets, a 4,400x increase compared to the number of assets covered by the inventory last year. All Climate TRACE data are free and publicly available to help enable action and accountability at the massive scale necessary for global progress.”

    Al Gore, one of the founders of Climate TRACE, claims the technology fills a vacuum devoid of accurate information by breaking down exact locations of emissions facility by facility on a worldwide basis. It’s a remarkably sophisticated tool for identifying emissions.

    Under the Paris ’15 climate agreement, countries and companies agreed to report emissions on a regular basis. Climate TRACE has blown a hole a mile wide in some of those reports. For example, coal mines in China were found to be responsible for a large proportion of underreported methane emissions from 2021-22. And CO2 from international airline flights increased by an astounding 74%.

    “Climate TRACE  combines the power of AI and machine learning with satellite data to construct “pictures of the world we’ve never seen before. And it’s allowing us to make climate progress in a way some never believed possible.” (Gavin McCormick, co-founder).

    Many climate scientists believe the only way forward to prevent more damage to life-sourcing ecosystems is complete cessation of fossil fuel production.

    NYC, September 2023: 400 scientists signed a letter addressed to President Biden endorsing the demands of the March to End Fossil Fuels in NYC, September 17th, 2023: “On your first day in office, you issued an executive order pledging that it is ‘the policy of my administration to listen to the science’ in tackling the climate crisis… And yet, rather than ratchet down fossil fuels, your administration has approved drilling permits at a rate faster than the Trump administration, opened up huge swaths of land and ocean to leasing, expanded exports, approved new pipelines, and embraced industry greenwashing ploys like carbon capture, which further entrenches our reliance on fossil fuels.”

    If the world community of climate science can retake control over its own destiny by stopping medieval nations like Saudi Arabia from ruining progress, there may be an outside chance of reducing the destructive impact of an already out of control climate system… maybe, but maybe not.

    Meantime, build sea walls just in case.

    West Antarctica looks assured of collapsing, but the timing is uncertain. See:  Dr Kaitlin Naughten et al “Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss Acceleration – British Antarctic Survey”, interview by Nick Breeze, November 2023 on YouTube or read K. Naughten, et al, “Unavoidable Future Increase in West Antarctic Ice-Shelf Melting Over the Twenty-First Century”, Nature Climate Change, October 23, 2023.

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  • COP28: Where Fossil Fuel Industries Go to Gloat

    The sequence of COP meetings, ostensibly a United Nations forum to discuss dramatic climate change measures in the face of galloping emissions, has now been shown for what it is: a luxurious, pampered bazaar for the very industries that fear a dip in their profits and ultimate obsolescence.  Call it a drugs summit for narcotics distributors promoting clean-living; a convention for casino moguls promising to aid problem gamblers.  The list of wicked analogies is endless.

    Reading the material from the gathering that is known in its longer form as the United Nations Climate Change Conference, one could be forgiven for falling for the sweetened agitprop.  We find, on the UN website explaining the role of COP28, that the forum is “where the world comes together to agree on ways to address the climate crisis, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, helping vulnerable communities adapt to the effects of climate change, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.”

    Then comes the boggling figure: 70,000 delegates will be mingling and haggling, including the parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).  “Business leaders, young people, climate scientists, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and various other experts and stakeholders are also among the participants.”

    The view from outside the conference is a matter of night and day.  Fernando Racimo, evolutionary biologist and member of the activist group Scientist Rebellion, sums up the progress of ever bloating summitry in this field since 1995: “Almost 30 years of promises, of pledges,” he told Nature, “and yet carbon emissions continue to go up to even higher levels.  As scientists, we’re recognizing this failure.”

    In Dubai, where COP28 is being held, representatives from the coal, oil and gas industries have come out in numbers to talk about climate change.  They, it would seem, are the business leaders and stakeholders who matter.  And such representatives have every reason to be encouraged by the rich mockery of it all: the United Arab Emirates is a top league oil producer and member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

    According to an analysis from the environmental Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition, 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access to the summit.  “In a year when global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions shattered records, there has been an explosion of fossil fuel lobbyists heading to UN talks, with nearly four times more than were granted last year.”

    The breakdown of the attendee figures makes for grim reading.  In the first place, fossil fuel lobbyists have outdone the number delegates from climate vulnerable nations: the number there comes to a mere 1,509.  In terms of country delegations, the fossil fuel group of participants is only outdone by Brazil, with 3,081 people.

    In contrast, the numbers of scientist presents are minimal to the point of being invisible.  Climate change activists, the young, and journalists serve in decorative and performative roles, the moralising priests who give the last rites before the execution.

    The theme of the conference had already been set by COP president Sultan al-Jaber, who felt, in his vast wisdom, that he could simultaneously host the conference with high principle and still conduct his duties as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

    This, after all, presented a wonderful chance to gossip about climate goals in hazy terms while striking genuine fossil fuel deals with participating countries.  This much was shown by leaked briefing documents to the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR).

    The documents in question involve over 150 pages of briefings prepared by the COP28 team for meetings with Jaber and various interested parties held between July and October this year.  They point to plans to raise matters of commercial interest with as many as 30 countries.  The CCR confirms “that on at least one occasion a nation followed up on commercial discussions brought up in a meeting with Al Jaber; a source with knowledge of discussions also told CCR that Adnoc’s business interests were allegedly raised during a meeting with another country.”

    The COP28 team did not deny using bilateral meetings related to the summit to discuss business matters.  A spokesperson for the team was mightily indifferent in remarking that Jaber “holds a number of positions alongside his role as COP28 President-Designate.  That is public knowledge.  Private meetings are private, and we do not comment on them.”

    The Sultan proved to be more direct, telling a news conference that such “allegations are false, not true, incorrect, are not accurate.  And it’s an attempt to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency.”  Jaber went on to promise that he had never seen “these talking points that they refer to or that I ever even used such talking points in my discussions.”  No need for notes, then, when advancing the fossil fuel interests of country and industry.

    Concerned parties are attempting to find various ways of protesting against a summit that has all the hallmarks of gross failure.  Scientists and environmentalists are choosing to voice their disagreement in their respective countries, thereby avoiding any addition to the increasingly vast carbon footprint being left by COP28.  As well they should: Dubai is, essentially, hosting an event that could be best described as a museum piece of human failings.

    Currently, delegates are poring over a draft of the final agreement that proposes “an orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels”.  What is just here is a fascinating question, given the lobbying by the fossil fuel advocates who have a rather eccentric notion of fairness.  As Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras declared, “The energy transition will only be valid if it’s a fair transition.”  The prospects for an even more grandiose, stage-managed failure, helped along by oil and gas, is in the offing.

    With the figures of science essentially excluded from these hot air gatherings in favour of industries that see them as troubling nuisances best ignored, the prospect for local and domestic reform through informed activism becomes the only sensible approach.  There are even heartening studies suggesting that climate protest can warm frigid public opinion, the only measure that really interests the vote getting politician.  Unfortunate that this seems a last throw for much of humanity and the earth’s ecosystem.

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  • Hypocrisy Sours COP28

    Hypocrisy runs rampant at COP28 even before the doors swung open to 70,000 delegates on Thursday, November 30th. This is the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties (“COP”) held at Expo City, Dubai. It’s the big annual event for scientists to meet to decide on the fate of anthropogenic climate change, assuming that’s even possible.

    This year’s big climate summit is headed by Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (“ADNOC”) of the United Arab Emirates. Leaked documents show Emirati officials using their leadership position at the climate summit to “lobby for oil and gas deals around the world.” That’s disgusting and an international scandal of the highest order. Although, November 29th Ahmed Al-Jaber vociferously denied the allegations, according to Bloomberg News.

    Nevertheless, the Centre for Climate Reporting as of November 27th reported COP28 President Secretly Used Climate Summit Role to Push Oil Trade with Foreign Government Official: “Leaked documents reveal COP28 president and UAE national oil company boss Sultan Al Jaber’s plans to discuss boosting fossil fuel business in bilateral meetings about the climate summit.”

    Also, according to a BBC report, November 28th: “Al Jaber… has held scores of meetings with senior government officials, royalty, and business leaders from around the world in recent months. The COP28 team has quietly planned to use this access as an opportunity to increase exports of ADNOC’s oil and gas.”

    Leaked briefings show Al-Jaber planned to use his new-found international leadership role as president of COP28 to raise commercial interests with almost 30 countries. A whistleblower came forward on condition of anonymity, confirming follow up discussions with at least one commercial party.

    Professor Michael Jacobs of Sheffield University, commenting to the BBC: “As a COP president you should not represent any national or commercial interest, it is your job to lead the world… The UAE at the moment is the custodian of a United Nations process aimed at reducing global emissions. And yet, in the very same meetings where it’s apparently trying to pursue that goal, it’s actually trying to do side deals that will increase global emissions.”

    Internal emails and meeting records obtained by the Centre for Climate Reporting raise serious questions about the COP28 leadership team’s independence from the national oil company ADNOC. Moreover, whistleblowers claim COP28 staff were in regular contact with the national oil company over talking points for ADNOC targeting specific country oil deals.

    The New York Times further reported Using Climate Talks to Sell Fossil Fuels, November 28th: UAE officials used their position of influence at the climate conference behind the scenes to influence Brazil’s environment minister to help with a local petrochemical deal by ADNOC. And Emirati officials, using their position at COP28, influenced Chinese counterparts about working on a joint international LNG opportunity. The article goes on to say that diplomats and climate experts from around the world have expressed shock at the leaked documents.

    According to Christiana Figueres, former UN diplomat: “The U.A.E. has been caught red-handed.”

    Early supporters of Al-Jaber for president of COP28 claim he was well positioned to convince oil producers of the world to tackle climate change. According to the IEA, the world’s oil and gas industry accounts for only one percent of all global investment in clean energy. Supporters claimed Al-Jaber would substantially increase that number.

    However, COP28 has now turned into a scandalous deception undermining hope for mutual trust amongst members, as well as deflating hopes for significant progress, even before the summit began.

    All of which begs the provocative question of how in the world did the UAE become host to a climate change conference in the first instance? And even more perplexing yet, how did Al-Jaber become president of COP28? Is COP a Cabal of Producers or a Conference of the Parties for climate change purposes?

    “They went too far in naming the C.E.O. of one of the largest — and by many measures one of the dirtiest — oil companies on the planet as the president of the U.N. Conference on Climate this year,’ former vice president Al Gore.” (Source: Fossil Fuels and Frustration at COP28, The New York Times, November 30, 2023)

    The hypocrisy runs even deeper than Al-Jaber and the UAE. Although, it’s nearly impossible to match the alleged duplicity, chicanery of Al-Jaber/UAE using the UN Climate Conference as an easily manipulated stooge to promote their own oil and gas deals.

    A recent UN Environment Programme in collaboration with academic institutions studied plans for the 20 largest fossil fuel producing countries that account for 84% of global carbon emissions: “The findings paint a grim picture: Governments’ plans show they intend to produce, in total, 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than are compatible with the 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement, and 69% more than is consistent with 2°C of warming.” (Source: The Production Gap)

    Expected Oil & Gas Commitments at COP28

    According to the World Resources Institute: “It’s essential that this UN climate summit not become a platform for pledges by the oil and gas industry that fail to tackle the core issue at stake. At COP28, the UAE is expected to announce a commitment from at least 20 major oil and gas companies to reduce methane leakage and reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – but only for their own operations, not for the fuel they sell. By not addressing the so-called “Scope 3” emissions of the fuel produced from their oil and gas extraction and then sold, the oil and gas industry is sidestepping the emissions that account for up to 95% of its contribution to the climate crisis.”

     Meantime, alarming data about forthcoming global warming and ecosystem degradation across the globe is far beyond the mindset and scope of intellect of host country UAE to handle a major UN Climate Change Conference. It simply does not fit. It’s embarrassing!

    The focus of COP28 should be on relevant science: Earth’s energy imbalance or “sunlight in” versus “sunlight out” is currently running at a frightful rate @ 1.36 W/m2  as of the 2020s decade. This is beyond troubling. It’s double the 2005-2015 rate @ 0.71 W/m2 (James Hansen,”Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind?” September 14, 2023). W/m2 is watts per square meter. Accordingly, there’s more energy coming in (absorbed sunlight) than energy going out (heat radiated to space) doubling within only one decade, which is beyond belief, assuring very challenging bad news down the line. This is an enormously dangerous climate event that’s already in process with potentially devastating earmarks.

    It’s not surprising that Dr. James Hansen, Earth Institute, Columbia University expects an early arrival of the dreaded 2.0°C above pre-industrial by the late 2030s, far ahead of IPCC expectations, which will crush many life support ecosystems; meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) fossil fuel producers plan on cranking up production to record levels. Thus, both global warming and oil production can join hands simultaneously setting new records.

    All the above adds up to disturbing levels of an indescribable insanity; furthermore, more insanity is expected as climate analysts expect an avalanche of greenwashing at COP28, already identified by the World Resources Institute in the preceding fourth paragraph.

    Speaking of which, Al-Jaber informed Bloomberg News, November 29th, “all of his meetings have been focused on how the world can collectively keep global temperature rise below 1.5C from pre-industrial levels.” Al-Jaber also previously said that emissions must be cut by 43% by 2030 because that’s what the science says must be done. Yet, ADNOC, his oil company, has plans to increase oil production by 600,000 barrels per day by 2030, spending $150B for more oil production.

    Go figure!

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  • IPCC Rebellion

    It’s 35 years since formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities.” Subsequently, COP21 at Paris ‘15 warned the world not to exceed 1.5°C, and worst case, not to exceed 2.0°C above pre-industrial or risk lasting damage to crucial life supporting ecosystems, ultimately leading to some level of an extinction event.

    Following three decades of IPCC failures to convince nation/states to make a dent in greenhouse gas emissions, which increase more and more each year, a high-ranking group of rebellious climate scientists claim the IPCC’s upper temperature limits of 1.5°C to 2.0°C are too high, misleading, dangerous, disruptive to sound policy, and demanding of change.

    These scientists have published a rousing 74-page Preprint (meaning, not peer reviewed): Bad Science and Good Intentions Prevent Effective Climate Action (aka: Bad Science and Good Intentions).

    They argue that Paris ‘15 temperature limitations are not only too high but will be exceeded. You can count on it. Moreover, they claim surprisingly few experts are challenging current IPCC mitigation strategies which are fundamentally flawed in the face of a dangerous climate overshoot that’s already underway and rapidly getting out of hand. This trip to the cliff’s edge, in part, is the result of inappropriate IPCC strategies.

    Indeed, the failure of IPCC models is highlighted in the Bad Science and Good Intentions Abstract: “This article posits that selective science communication and unrealistically optimistic assumptions are obscuring the reality that greenhouse gas emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal will not curtail climate change in the 21st Century.”

    That statement goes to the heart of a consensus narrative that depends upon carbon removal/reduction technologies to bail us out of the biggest jam in human history, especially in the face of a powerful climate overshoot accelerating so rapidly that the consequences routinely qualify for TV Breaking News, massive floods, massive droughts, massive wildfires, massive storms. Everything climate related has become “massive” beckoning a revival of Noah’s Ark.

    Unprecedented climate events one after another have convinced these rebellious scientists that we do not have enough time for slo-mo approaches to a disruptive, capricious climate system; for example, NASA says the Amazon Rainforest doesn’t have enough time between drought sequences to recover. This is unprecedented and a frightful leading indicator of a dangerously volatile climate system. (“Amazon Rainforest is Drying Out. How Much More Abuse Can It Take?” DownToEarth, June 29, 2020.)

    Of deeper concern, NASA’s GRACE satellite system has detected an Amazon in tenuous condition in an unprecedented state of breakdown with large areas of the Amazon classified as “Deep Red Zones” of severely constrained water levels. Alas, rainforests are at the heart and soul of life on Earth.

    “About 20% of the Amazon rainforest is deforested, and 40% is degraded — which means trees are still standing, but their health has faded and they are prone to fire and drought.” (“The Amazon’s Record-Setting Drought: How Bad Will It Be?” Nature, November 14, 2023.)

    “The level of the Rio Negro is dropping by 1 meter (3 feet) every three days, something that has never been recorded before.” (“Amazon Drought Cuts River Traffic, Leaves Communities Without Water and Supplies”, Mongabay, October 2023.)

    According to Bad Science and Good Intentions, rapid planet cooling measures must be employed as soon as possible to slow down an indiscriminate global climate system. The threats cannot be ignored any longer, for example, a recent study shows Antarctica undergoing “polar amplification,” with direct evidence of disturbing warming well beyond anything contemplated by the IPCC, as the icy continent is heating up by 50% per decade over climate models. (“Ice Cores Reveal Antarctica is Warming Twice as Fast as Global Average“, CarbonBrief, September 13, 2023.)

    The Antarctic study is a shocker to climate scientists and speaks to the necessity of taking immediate action to adopt planetary cooling measures strongly recommended in Bad Science and Good Intentions. The Antarctic ice core study anticipates “dire consequences for the low-lying lands… further warning of the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, even in one of the most remote parts of the world.”

    A motivating factor behind Bad Science and Good Intentions is a consensus narrative that’s certain to fail. It’s misdirected because there is little solid evidence supporting commonly accepted assertions that “GHG (greenhouse gases) reduction and removal” will work. In other words, speculative assumptions about “carbon removal and carbon reduction” may be nothing more than a Trojan Horse for far worse climate disaster scenarios, similar to global warming’s recent jarring disruption of Europe’s commercial rivers, the Danube, Rhine, Po, Rhone, and Loire nearly drying up in the summer of 2022 because global warming has been running in-excess of 2.0°C in the EU for some time now, impeding commercial barge traffic and threatening failure of nuclear power operations, especially France’s 56 operating reactors. For the first time in 40 years, France became a net importer of electricity because of structural repairs combined with low and too warm river water necessary for nuclear cooling purposes.

    All of which begs an obvious concern: What happens globally at 2.0°C, which renowned climate scientist James Hansen claims is on track for the 2030s. This is decades ahead of IPCC expectations. Hansen’s latest paper: “How We Know that Global Warming is Accelerating and that the Goal of the Paris Agreement is Dead“, Earth Institute, Columbia University, November 10, 2023, goes into detail about the factual evidence and clearly states: “Within less than a decade, we must expect 0.4×0.25×4°C = 0.4°C additional warming. Given global warming of 0.95C in 2010, the warming by 2030 will be about 0.95°C + 2×0.18°C + 0.4°C = 1.71°C. Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s.”

    Accordingly, the authors of Bad Science and Good Intentions suggest global cooling is urgently needed t0 counter the rapid onset of global warming, which is certain to blindside policymakers.

    Not only is the IPCC’s model insufficient to do the job, but even if and when they try: “IPCC models now indicate that CDR (carbon dioxide removal) must be coupled with NZE (net zero emissions) to reduce total atmospheric GHG concentrations. Present estimated costs of this removal are $100 to $200 per tonne of CO2. With estimates of how much CO2 must be removed every year ranging from 5-16 Gt per year, this represents a multi-trillion dollar per year unfunded problem that the world’s nations will have to manage,” according to Bad Science and Good Intentions.

    In the final analysis, that model is probably a moot point because of (1) overwhelming scale (2) overwhelming costs, and (3) a very suspect history of carbon removal effectiveness; for example: “CCS (carbon capture and storage) is ‘a mature technology that’s failed,” according to Bruce Robertson, an energy finance analyst who has studied the top projects globally. “Companies are spending billions of dollars on these plants and they’re not working to their metrics.” (Bloomberg News, October 23, 2023.)

    The IPCC is out in left field, out of touch, and thus unintentionally serving as an enabler of more climate disasters; for example, according to the IPCC’s Best-Case analysis: “If the world bands together to slash emissions immediately, the world can avoid the most catastrophic version of the climate crisis.” That statement is best left unsaid for numerous reasons, including its implied message of near certainty of catastrophic failure, which is a counter-productive suggestion, regardless of what happens.

    After all, here’s the real world, which hasn’t changed in a lifetime: “In the year to July 2023, the capacity of oil-and gas-fired power stations under development around the world grew by 90GW (13%), reaching a total of 783GW, according to the latest figures from GEM’s Oil and Gas Plant Tracker. Projects ‘under development’ are those that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases but are not yet operating. If they are all built, these projects would grow the capacity of the global oil and gas power fleet by a third, at an estimate cost of $611bn in capital expenditure.” (“Plans for New Oil and Gas Power Plants Have Grown by 13% in 2023“, Carbon Brief, September 20, 2023.)

    Really! It’ll grow fossil fuel power plants by a third! Which is in addition to billions of funding for new oil and gas production, and just for good measure, $7 trillion in government subsidies, a new record set last year (IMF). See: “Governments Plan Massive Expansion of Fossil Fuel Production Despite Climate Crisis, UN Warns,” August 11, 2023. 

    Yet, 2030 is widely earmarked to be a turning point, when major carbon emissions are to be drastically cut by 50% and critical to meet IPCC net zero emissions by 2050.

    Oops, emissions are headed in the wrong direction, by a long shot, going up, up, up, not down. They’ll cut through the 2030 dateline like a hot knife thru butter. Fossil fuel capital spending plans guarantee massive emissions well beyond 2030.  They’re spending billions upon more billions for future production. That’s reality.

    With a sense of relief, there’s good news to be found in Bad Science and Good Intentions: “Catastrophe is not inevitable; it will only occur if we fail to develop and deploy safe, realistic mitigation strategies. These will require the application of rapid climate cooling measures to reduce risks during the long time it will take to decarbonize the global economy and restore a safe, stable climate. The main obstacle to considering climate interventions beyond emissions reduction and CDR is the opposition of many well-meaning scientists and environmentalists to further investigating and potentially deploying climate cooling measures and technologies.”

    According to Bad Science and Good Intentions: “The Paris Agreement has created confusion through a political focus on maximum acceptable temperatures and reducing GHG emissions, rather than on the need to stabilize the climate through eliminating the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)—the difference between the amount of the sun’s energy arriving at the Earth and the amount returning to space. GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are limiting the amount of the sun’s energy that returns to space… NZE (net zero emissions) alone or coupled with CDR (carbon dioxide removal) will not restore EEI or prevent temperatures and sea levels from rising to ever more dangerous levels.”

    Energy imbalance or sunlight in versus sunlight out is currently running at a rate of 1.36 W/m 2 as of the 2020s decade.  That is double the 2005-2015 rate of 0.71 w/m 2 (James Hanson, “Global Warming is Accelerating.  Why? Will We Fly Blind?” September 14, 2023.)  W/m 2 is watts per square meter.  Accordingly, there’s more energy coming in (absorbed sunlight) than energy going out (heat radiated to space).  Doubling within only a decade is beyond belief and forebodingly bad news, as bad as it gets.  It’s not surprising that Hansen expects a very early arrival of a 2.0°C  above pre-industrial, which will crush many life support ecosystems.  As previously mentioned herein, the EU at 2.0°C nearly destroyed navigable waterways.  “Global and European Temperatures”, European Environment Agency, June 20, 2023.

    And, this:  According to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 75% of Spain’s land is battling climatic conditions that could lead to desertification.

    There is considerable debate surrounding climate intervention; i.e., artificially cooling the planet or sometimes referred to as geo-engineering. But, according to Bad Science and Good Intentions, it’s the only way to stem the tide of ongoing global warming in time to take bolder steps, as the transition to net zero emissions will take decades whilst global warming is not in a waiting mode.

    Regarding reams upon reams of incisive debate “for/against climate intervention” in the public domain, it’s interesting to note that humankind has been intervening in the climate system via industrial-driven emissions, inclusive of transport, for more than a century. That’s the cause of today’s hand-wringing. What, then, does that suggest about proposals for intervention to cool the planet?

    Bad Science and Good Intentions is a tour de force of essential perspective and solid information on humanity’s most challenging days ahead, and what to do about it. Read it, study it, share it, it’s an extremely valuable resource.

    This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.

  • Showdown at COP28

    $200 trillion is needed to stop global warming.

    — Bloomberg New Energy Finance

    Buckle up, fireworks will be going off in a couple weeks in the pristine complex known as Dubai. World leaders, climate scientists, environmentalists, and fossil fuel producers will clash over the outlook for climate change and the impact of global warming, or should it be called global heating? Already, there are signs of tension, as explained in a recent BBC News headline: “Deep Divisions Ahead of Crucial UN Climate Talks” d/d October 31, 2023.

    The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly referred to as COP28, will be the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference, held from November 30th until December 12th at Expo City, Dubai.

    The question arises, will the aftermath of COP28 help to save the planet? But, on the other hand, does the planet really need help, or is it human civilization that’s in trouble? After all, the planet has been thru worse, the Permian-Triassic Extinction 250 mil years ago, and it survived. Homo sapiens wouldn’t have made it as 95% of marine life was wiped-out and almost all vertebrates died. But, then again, that was 250 million years ago.

    It should be noted that 30 years of COPs have yielded very little progress towards reduction or regulation or removal of greenhouse gases. Governments have never taken it seriously enough. Meanwhile, over the same time frame, CO2 has increased by 60% with never a down year except 2020 when greenhouse gases dropped by 4.6% during the worldwide covid lockdown only to snap back to a new record level in 2021.

    Greenhouse gases have been on a relentless track, up and away, throughout the age of industrialization, trapping global heat, increasing global temperatures, distorting jet streams, disrupting the climate system into a mad frenzy. All of which continues to harass the scientific community to come up with answers to a perceived threat of human extinction, the planet’s 6th, but maybe it’ll only be partial extinction or no extinction. Nobody really knows for sure how events like these turn out. But can people survive without life-sourcing ecosystems, like rainforests, wetlands, the Great Barrier Reef, vibrant rivers, and this: according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 75% of Spain’s land is battling climatic conditions that could lead to desertification?

    Leading up to COP28 more than 70 environment ministers and 100 national delegations have been meeting in Abu Dhabi during the hottest year ever recorded on a global basis. Delegates must wonder if a petrostate can deliver a low carbon globe. The question answers itself. The president of the upcoming COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, who has a reputation as a divisive negotiator, is head of Adnoc, the UAE state oil company.

    According to BBC News, Greta “How Dare You” Thunberg is in a state of shock, questioning the entire COP process, which is understandable. In sharp contrast to Greta, Mr. Al Jaber claims the climate change imbroglio can only be resolved with the help of the oil industry with an eye towards limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Of course, this has been the publicly stated objective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Why would the host of COP28 say anything else? But still, it’s interesting that Al Jaber claims the problem can only be solved by help of the oil industry.

    Even more interesting yet, Al Jaber admits that emissions must be cut by 43% by 2030 because that’s what the science says must be done. Nevertheless, Adnoc has plans to increase oil production by 600,000 barrels per day over exactly the same time frame. The oil and gas giant will be spending $150B for expansion of production. Even more confusing yet, Al Jaber claims: “The world economy needs the additional production as emissions fall.” What is missing here?

    According to a recent interview with Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, regarding COP28: “The fossil fuel industry has now completely succeeded in corrupting the COP process… what we’ve got is a COP process that has been completely taken over by the fossil fuel companies.”

    Complicating matters even more, the European Union (EU) has staked a position, along with several other countries, claiming that “no compromise is possible on cutting fossil fuel production,” in direct opposition to Al Jaber, especially as Adnoc plans an increase of 600,000 barrels per day.

    Another festering bone of contention is a funding agreement by developed nations for poor undeveloped nations to help pay for the damage incurred by climate change, amounting to some $100 billion per year owed by developed countries, yet big question marks remain about actual payments and seriousness to fulfill commitments. This was supposed to be a big win at the last COP but discussions about how to implement it have already broken down in preliminary talks at Abu Dhabi.

    Already the battle lines have formed.

    Benchmarks for Success at COP28

    According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), COP28 will have a first-ever Global Stocktake report, which will be presented at the proceedings, detailing  progress since the all-important Paris Agreement of 2015. That report, already published in September, according to WRI, “is truly a damaging report card.” It’s supposed to serve as a blueprint for what to do, or not do, for nations moving forward.

    According to WRI: “At COP28, countries must deliver a rapid response plan to the Global Stocktake that transforms every major system on Earth at a pace and depth not seen before, while also improving people’s lives and advancing climate justice.”

    The success of COP28 hinges on whether the summit makes progress in four key areas:

    1. Respond to the first Global Stocktake
    2. Transform Earth’s systems inclusive of energy, food, land use, and cities.
    3. Build resilience to sever impacts of climate change.
    4. Deliver climate finance to most vulnerable nations.

    And of utmost importance, it’s expected that the fundamental role of fossil fuels will take center stage at COP28. Already, several countries have made “phasing out fossil fuels” a central goal for negotiations. This could be a showstopper.

    Moreover, according to data provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA), to reach net-zero by 2050, green energy equivalents must collectively reduce energy-related emissions by 15 gigatons by 2030. And assuming carbon capture and storage (CCS) is part of the mix, it would capture only 1 of 15 gigatons by the end of this decade. Therefore, and this is key: “Clearly, carbon capture and storage technology must not be used as an excuse to expand fossil fuel production or slow the transition to renewable energy sources like wind and solar.” (IEA)

    Carbon capture effectiveness is very suspect with a long history of failure. “CCS is ‘a mature technology that’s failed,’ according to Bruce Robertson, an energy finance analyst who has studied the top projects globally. ‘Companies are spending billions of dollars on these plants and they’re not working to their metrics.” (Bloomberg, October 23, 2023.)

    Expected Fossil Fuel Industry ‘Commitments’ at COP28

    According to the World Resources Institute: “It’s essential that this UN climate summit not become a platform for pledges by the oil and gas industry that fail to tackle the core issue at stake. At COP28, the UAE is expected to announce a commitment from at least 20 major oil and gas companies to reduce methane leakage and reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – but only for their own operations, not for the fuel they sell. By not addressing the so-called “Scope 3” emissions of the fuel produced from their oil and gas extraction and then sold, the oil and gas industry is sidestepping the emissions that account for up to 95% of its contribution to the climate crisis.”

    It is premature to draw conclusions, but one can assume, guess, surmise that COP28 will not deliver what’s really needed to seriously tackle global warming. Assuming “expected fossil fuel commitments,” as stated above and no further concessions by the fossil fuel industry, maybe future COPs should be limited to addressing adaptation measures for rapidly rising sea levels, like how to build really big, strong, secure seawalls and other survival measures.

    In fact, that’s already happening: Up and down US coastlines, cities as diverse as New York, Charleston, Norfolk, Houston and San Francisco are staring down the same dilemma: tall concrete walls could technically protect homes and property from seas rising because of climate change, but the proposals are so potentially hideous that some locals are rejecting them… for example, in oil-rich Texas  the $29bn project proposed for Galveston, Texas.  (“Coastal Residents Fear ‘Hideous’ Seawalls Will Block Waterfront Views”, The Guardian, January 2023.)

    Thus, the reality of climate change/global heat is already making its presence known by destroying waterfront views where well-to-do people live. Just wondering when seawall construction companies will do IPOs on Wall Street?

    As a preamble to COP28, it should be observed that past COPs have emphasized the importance of achieving limits to global warming of 1.5°C pre-industrial. According to MIT, here’s the IPCC position: “To prevent worsening and potentially irreversible effects of climate change, the world’s average temperature should not exceed that of preindustrial times by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). (“Explained: The 1.5C Climate Benchmark”, MIT News, August 27, 2023.)

    To achieve that, key markers must be met by 2030 and 2050 in terms of reduced emissions and mitigation efforts. According to the IPCC: Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2,30 to achieve no more than 1.5°C pre-industrial.

    What are the costs? Please be seated… accordingly, “Bloomberg NEF, Bloomberg’s green-energy research team, estimates in a new report this week it could cost $196 trillion in investments to zero out the world’s carbon emissions by 2050, as many countries have pledged to do, to avoid society-destroying global warming.” (“$200 Trillion Is Needed to Stop Global Warming. That’s a Bargain“, Bloomberg, July 5, 2023.)

    And, over the short-term: “BNEF suggests annual green investments will need to nearly triple to $6.9 trillion by 2030 if we are to have any hope of hitting net zero by 2050. This will include governments, businesses and consumers swapping most of the world’s fleet of gas-powered vehicles for electric ones, building charging stations for those vehicles and replacing fossil fuel-powered energy with wind, solar and other renewables, with new grids to connect them all.” (Ibid.)

    However, in direct opposition to BNEF’s analyses, according to a new UN report, a lot of that $6.9B would be offset and neutralized, assuming it really happens, which is questionable, but regardless, here’s the fossil fuel offsets by 2030: “Plans (of fossil fuel companies) would lead to 460% more coal production, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil in 2030 than it was possible to burn if global temperature rise was to be kept to the internationally agreed 1.5C. The plans would also produce 69% more fossil fuels than is compatible with the riskier 2C target.” (“Insanity: Petrostates Planning Huge Expansion of Fossil Fuels, Says UN Report”, The Guardian, November 8, 2023.)

    Meantime, the dangers of excessive global warming are not waiting around for UN COPs to decide what’s best for human living conditions. The world’s climate system is on a fast-track, changing right before our eyes. It was only two years ago that NPR (National Public Radio) stated: “By limiting the planet’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, by 2100, the hope is to stave off severe climate disruptions that could exacerbate hunger, conflict and drought worldwide” d/d November 8, 2021. Really???

    How quickly things change!

    Alas, it’s no surprise to people “in the know” that global warming is set to blow past all markers, way ahead of schedule, in fact, within a couple decades: Dr. James Hansen’s latest paper (Earth Institute, Columbia University): “How We Know that Global Warming is Accelerating and that the Goal of the Paris Agreement is Dead”, November 10, 2023, goes into detail about the factual evidence and clearly states: “Within less than a decade, we must expect 0.4×0.25×4°C = 0.4°C additional warming. Given global warming of 0.95C in 2010, the warming by 2030 will be about 0.95°C + 2×0.18°C + 0.4°C = 1.71°C. Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s.”

    (Thirty-five years ago, Dr. James Hansen, director of NASA’s Institute for Space Studies warned: (“Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate”, New York Times, June 24, 1988.)

    Meanwhile, it was only a couple of years ago that mainstream news warned about holding “the global temperature limit to 1.5°C pre-industrial by 2100.” No wonder people are too complacent ab0ut the potential ravages of global warming. It seems like a lifetime away. But, oops, it’s right around the corner. As for proof, the climate system has been acting like a wild bull on steroids. And that’s what’s been on TV news of late, on every continent. It’s worldwide, massive floods, massive droughts, massive fires, massive storms.

    It’ll get worse. Here’s why: “Researchers have found that Earth’s energy imbalance approximately doubled during the 14-year period from 2005 to 2019.” (“Joint NASA, NOAA Study Finds Earth’s Energy Imbalance Has Doubled”, NASA, June 15, 2021.) According to climate scientists: That’s a staggering development, portending more serious trouble down the line. It reveals an albedo crisis. At this rate, forget 1.5°C by 2100; just hope and pray we get there. (check-out a great idea: MEER: Cooling Earth By Reflecting Sunlight).

    “The 1.5-degree limit is deader than a doornail,’ Hansen, now a director at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, said in a call with reporters Thursday. ‘In the next several months, we’re going to go well above 1.5C [Celsius] on a 12-month average. … For the rest of this decade, the average is going to be at least 1.5.” (“Famed Climate Scientist Has a New, Dire Prediction”, The Washington Post, November 2, 2023.)

    COP28 will have to pull off a miracle.

    This post was originally published on Dissident Voice.