Military junta troops have destroyed major roads that connect several towns and cities controlled by rebel forces in northern Myanmar’s Shan State in what could be preparation for renewed fighting in the area, residents told Radio Free Asia.
Junta forces used bulldozers on Wednesday to damage a road connecting Namtu township and Namsang Man Ton, which has been under the control of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA.
On Thursday, junta bulldozers made a section of the Lashio-Hsenwi road impassable. That part of the road, which leads to Hsenwi, Kun Long and Chinshwehaw townships, is an area controlled by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA.
The TNLA, MNDAA and Arakan Army together make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which in October launched an offensive that has dealt the military a series of defeats, pushing government forces back.
Residents of Lashio told RFA that security has been tightened at the entrance to the strategic town, which is home to the military’s northeast command headquarters.
The road leading to Lashio city under the control of Brigade 6 of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was destroyed by the junta, June 13, 2024. (PSLF/TNLA News via Telegram)
That’s likely a reaction to a nearby buildup of forces by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a resident told RFA on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“It’s been apparent that the junta has also been gathering its forces and weapons near the area controlled by the ethnic armed organizations,” the resident said.
“Moreover, insurgent forces have been seen near Lashio,” the resident. “And now the roads to Lashio have been cut off. It is expected that conflict will occur very soon.”
Ceasefire violation
A resident of Moe Meik township, who requested not to be named, told RFA that people are already fleeing to safe areas ahead of expected armed clashes between the junta and the alliance.
“We have learned that the ethnic alliance force is headed to this area,” he said. “Almost all the people have left the town now.”
The destroyed roads have led to a rise in the price of rice and other goods, a Namtu township resident told RFA. Gasoline has increased from 3,600 kyat (US$1.72) to 4,000 kyat (US$1.91) per liter and is being sold on a limited basis, he said.
In nearby Kutkai township, the price of rice has risen by 50,000 kyat (US$24) per bag as people rush to buy supplies, a resident there said.
Three Brotherhood Alliance and junta representatives agreed to a Chinese-brokered ceasefire during a round of talks in January. Less than a week after the agreement, both sides were accused of violating the deal.
Members of the Kokang army (MNDAA) clean up the Rantheshan camp, which they had just captured, October 29, 2023. (The Ko Kang via Facebook)
Junta forces carried out artillery shelling on June 9 on a TNLA outpost between Pang Tin and Man Pying villages, which is located about 32 kilometers (20 miles) away from Moe Meik.
Troop movements and other preparations by the TNLA are in response to the shelling, several residents said.
TNLA spokeswoman Lway Yay Oo told RFA that the junta is violating the January ceasefire agreement, and they will carry out retaliatory attacks if junta troops conduct more military action.
“It was found that the junta has sent more drones and forces in northern Shan state. They are also cutting off routes,” he said. “It is deliberately creating fear in the public.”
Calls by RFA to junta spokesperson Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun for a response to the TNLA spokeswoman’s remark went unanswered.
It’s unlikely that members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance would accept another ceasefire, military and political commentator Hla Kyaw Zaw said.
“Even if China tries to prevent it again, the TNLA will not stop its mission,” he said. “Now that the junta has cut through the roads, the TNLA has reason to attack.”
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By RFA Burmese.
Thousands of residents have fled the capital of western Myanmar’s Rakhine state in anticipation of a looming battle between the rebel ethnic Arakan Army and junta soldiers, local residents told Radio Free Asia.
Fighting in the fortified administrative and military hub of Sittwe is expected to be intense, and would come after close to three months of heightened conflict between the military and the Arakan Army, or AA.
In recent weeks, the AA has seized several junta military camps in the townships that encircle Sittwe, including Mrauk-U, Minbya, Kyauktaw and Rathedaung.
The military junta has blocked highways and waterways throughout Rakhine since November, making it hard for people to leave the state capital.
Those who have decided to stay are digging bunkers at their homes, placing sandbags nearby and otherwise searching for safe places or moving to nearby rural areas, local residents said.
“In Sittwe, you cannot use roads or waterways,” a resident of the state capital told RFA. “So, some leave for Yangon out of fear – and they have to go there by air.”
There are four flights a day with about 50 people on each flight, according to the resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons. Several local residents told RFA that plane tickets from Sittwe to Yangon are fully booked until the end of March, and some people are chartering planes to get out.
Sittwe’s population is over 120,000, including students from several universities, according to 2019 statistics from the general administration department. Some local residents estimated that as many as 30 percent of residents have already left.
Gaining ground
The AA and two other rebel groups make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched a campaign in October on junta forces in the northern and western parts of the country.
Last week, nearly 300 junta troops surrendered to the AA after it took control of two major military junta encampments in Kyauktaw. And on Wednesday, the Three Brotherhood Alliance said in a statement that the AA had won full control of Pauktaw, a port city just 16 miles (25 kilometers) east of Sittwe.
Landline and internet connections have been shut down in northern Rakhine’s townships, including Sittwe, residents said. In some areas, only the Mytel telecom network has been available.Residents said they have had to wait one or two days to withdraw cash from banks in Sittwe and are also having difficulty buying basic commodities such as food and oil as prices rise.
Plane tickets to Yangon cost between 350,000 kyats (US$166) and 500,000 kyats (US$238), the Sittwe resident said.
“Impoverished individuals and people who can’t afford to buy airline tickets can’t run anywhere,” he said. “They can’t afford to live in Yangon. So there are many people who have to stay here.”
RFA couldn’t immediately reach Rakhine state’s junta spokesperson Hla Thein to ask about the steady stream of residents leaving Sittwe.
At a Jan. 20 meeting with state level departmental officials, junta-appointed Rakhine chief minister Htein Lin said security has become the administration’s top focus in the state.
The Sittwe resident who spoke to RFA about flights to Yangon said he and his family are also trying to travel to Myanmar’s biggest city.
“I’m worried about being unable to flee home if something happens. I have a family and children,” he said. “Battles can affect children emotionally. I don’t want to force them to live with such hardships.”
Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By RFA Burmese.
Banned by the State Department from traveling to the United States until he became India’s prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi was on Thursday ushered into the White House for the second time in as many years amid praise from U.S. President Joe Biden.
Standing next to Modi – who was denied U.S. visas over his role as governor in Gujarat’s 2002 anti-Muslim riots – Biden said the pair were “trusted partners” who share the “core principles” of democracy.
“Welcome, Mr. Prime Minister. Welcome back to the White House,” Biden said. The meeting, he added, was happening at an “inflection point” in world history that was forcing their countries together.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands with President Joe Biden as they watch the United States Army Old Guard Fife and Drum Corps during a State Arrival Ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House, Thursday, June 22, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press)
For his part, Modi glossed over any bygones – and travel bans.
He had only seen the White House’s exterior when he traveled to the country “as a common man” 30 years ago. But not this time: “This grand welcome ceremony at the White House today,” the premier said, “is an honor and pride for the 1.4 billion people of India.”
“Thank you, Mr. President, for your friendship,” he added.
The specter of China
During the morning ceremony, neither Biden nor Modi betrayed the reasons for the embrace of their two countries.
But there were clues.
One was in the abundance of announcements that followed, headlined by a US$2.7-billion factory to be built in India by U.S. microchip maker Micron, which was last month banned from selling in China amid the ongoing chip war between the United States and Beijing.
There were deals, too, for General Electric to build fighter jet engines for India’s military, as well as for the sale of Stryker armored vehicles and lightweight long-range howitzers, which India’s military currently positions along its disputed Himalayas border with China.
America’s General Electric will build jet engines for India’s LCA Tejas fighter [shown]. (Samuel Rajkumar/Reuters file photo)
China’s specter was also present during an afternoon press conference at the White House, with Biden asked his views of Modi’s crackdown on religious and media freedoms in the context of his recent public comments that Chinese President Xi Jinping is a “dictator.”
“We’re straightforward with each other and we respect each other,” Biden said of Modi, without answering the reporter’s question.
“One of the fundamental reasons that I believe the U.S.-China relationship is not in the space it is in with the U.S.-Indian relationship,” he said, “is that there’s an overwhelming respect for each other.”
‘A pretty amazing transition’
The personal bonhomie between Biden and Modi marks a dramatic shift in relations between the countries, with New Delhi long skeptical of American foreign policy aims and one of the primary architects of the stridently neutral Cold War-era Non-Alignment Movement.
A socialist republic according to the preamble of its 1950 Constitution, India nonetheless long hewed closer to the Soviet Union. In fact, the historical ties between Moscow and New Delhi – and India’s reliance on Russian-made weaponry – were widely seen as key to Modi’s recent reluctance to isolate Russia amid its invasion on Ukraine.
Workers at Russia’s MiG factory assemble a MiG-29K fighter jet for the Indian Navy in Moscow in 2011. (Associated Press)
But that has shifted as China – a historical rival of India, and one with which it shares a disputed 3,400-kilometer (2,100-mile) border – has supplanted Russia as the lead geopolitical rival to the United States.
“On security ties, we’ve really seen a pretty amazing transition in the last couple of decades,” said Richard M. Rossow, chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Rossow said in a call last week to preview Modi’s visit that India’s longtime policy of nonalignment has over recent years “kind of shifted to language of strategic autonomy” and put an end to its historical reluctance to work too closely with the United States.
“That really is not exactly true when we focus on the main strategic threat that we both look at and share in the Indo-Pacific region, which is China,” he said. “We’ve found it relatively easy to open up doors that may have been closed 10-15 years ago.”
But that has not meant any alliances with the United States, with Modi at times warming to American advances when appearing threatened by China’s growing power while thumbing his nose at other times.
“Trying to define what this relationship is,” Rossow said of U.S.-Indian ties, “is like crossing the river by feeling pebbles with your feet.”
Autonomous India
From Washington’s perspective, though, a stronger but fiercely independent India can still aid U.S. foreign policy objectives.
“As is well known in D.C. policy circles, India will never be a treaty ally of the United States,” explained Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the director of its South Asia program. “However, U.S. strategists see India playing a central role in their larger framework of deterring China.”
Vaishnav told Radio Free Asia that even if they do not become official allies, “the United States and India view their futures as inextricably linked” on technology, defense and the broader economy, because India provides an alternative to China as a manufacturing base.
Amid U.S.-led efforts to “de-risk” supply chains away from a reliance on Chinese manufacturers, Vaishnav said, American officials are keen, in particular, to help India find “a foothold in the semiconductor market” and thereby establish a long-term alternative source market.
Rossow of CSIS said the same logic extended to India’s military and the need “to reduce reliance on Russia as a major military supplier.”
“We’re really trying to push the envelope … beyond what we’ve ever done for a country that’s not an ally” in terms of sharing military technology, he said, with an explicit aim of “helping India to become more self-reliant in some areas of weapons production.”
Indian troops clash with China’s People’s Liberation Army soldiers along the de facto border between India and China in this undated photo. (RFA screenshot from citizen journalist video)
Speaking on the condition of anonymity on Wednesday evening, a senior Biden administration official also alluded to China as a key factor driving India closer to the United States militarily.
“I think some of the challenges that they faced along their own borders have concentrated their attention and caused them to focus intensively on both greater preparation on the defense side, and also seeking closer partnerships internationally,” the official told reporters.
The multipolar world
Ultimately, with India’s main priority to maintain its autonomy, playing off other world powers to its advantage is the aim of its game.
It’s a foreign-policy shift that has been forged by Modi’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, a strategic realist who former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger singled out in an interview with The Economist as “the practicing political leader that is quite close to my views.”
The author of the foreign-policy treatise “The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World,” Jaishankar’s view of the emerging world order is one defined by a multipolarity of four major powers – China, Russia, India and the United States, who can at best be “frenemies.”
New Delhi won’t be constrained by any commitments to – or against – its “frenemies,” the minister has made clear. In the meantime, though, why not take what you can get without entering into alliances?
“We would like to have multiple choices. And obviously try to make the best of it,” he told The Economist. “Every country would like to do that. Some may be constrained by other obligations, some may not.”
Edited by Malcolm Foster
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by Alex Willemyns for RFA.
