{"id":1477666,"date":"2024-02-02T07:00:10","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T07:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.counterpunch.org\/?p=312156"},"modified":"2024-02-02T07:00:10","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T07:00:10","slug":"why-are-our-regional-experts-expecting-more-war-in-every-corner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2024\/02\/02\/why-are-our-regional-experts-expecting-more-war-in-every-corner\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Are Our Regional Experts Expecting More War in Every Corner?"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/a>\n
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Photograph Source: pushypenguin – CC BY 2.0 Deed<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cKim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war.\u00a0 The danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang\u2019s \u2018provocations\u2019.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Robert Carlin (former State Department analyst) and Siegfried S. Hecker (nuclear scientist and former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory), Stimson Center website 38 North, Discussion of North Korea attack against South Korea, January 11, 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s reached a very, very high level of tension.\u00a0 War could essentially happen anytime.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Lyle Goldstein, Director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, Discussion of Chinese attack against Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe implications of Putin\u2019s victory in Ukraine\u2026will only encourage more threats and more war, first in Europe and then in Asia.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Michael McFaul, professor at Stanford University and former ambassador to Russia, Substack, January 26, 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe world war potential is really, really significant.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, New York Times,<\/em> January 30. 2024.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/i>Nicholas Kristof, opinion columnist for the New York Times<\/i>, asked last week if American anxiety about war can become self-fulfilling.\u00a0 I don\u2019t believe so, but I do believe that the various experts, cited above, are irresponsibly anticipating an outbreak of war without any evidence\u00a0 to support such assertions.\u00a0 It must be emphasized that there is no hard evidence available for any of these lines of dangerous speculation that is available to those outside the intelligence community.\u00a0 Furthermore, they neglect the larger geopolitical picture that suggests various deterrents to the wars they are anticipating.<\/span><\/p>\n

These \u201cexpert\u201d opinions receive enormous attention in the mainstream media, however, particularly in the New York Times<\/i> and the Washington Post.\u00a0 <\/i>This certainly contributes to the anxiety of the American people.\u00a0 The irresponsible debate that is currently taking place regarding going to war against Iran adds to that anxiety, and puts a great deal of pressure on the Biden administration, already facing uncertain reelection prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n

McFaul\u2019s expectation of an expanded war with Russia is particularly unworthy.\u00a0 McFaul, an academic who was an ambassador to Russia for the Obama administration, confessed that he believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin \u201csurely will be satiated if, God forbid, he succeeds in annexing more of Ukrainian territory.\u201d\u00a0 But after a trip to Lithuania last week and meetings with government officials and regional experts, he shares their fears that \u201cPutin is only getting started.\u201d\u00a0 McFaul believes that Putin has \u201ctransformed Russia into a wartime economy,\u201d and that there is a possibility of a \u201cdirect, conventional war between NATO and Russia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

McFaul\u2019s arguments would make some sense if it were not for the fact that Russia has done so poorly against the inadequately trained and supplied Ukrainian forces on its border.\u00a0 Putin\u2019s military has failed in key conventional situations and, as a result, has been forced to withdraw from attacks on Kyiv, Kharkov, and Kherson.\u00a0 The long-term prospects for Russia\u2019s economy are very weak, and Russia has gone hat in hand with Third World states such as Iran and North Korea for military weaponry. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moscow\u2019s western border is studded with NATO members as well as a NATO organization that has significantly increased its military prowess.\u00a0 Over the past year, NATO has increased its military spending by nearly $200 billion, which nearly equals Russia\u2019s annual defense budget.\u00a0 This argues strongly against Russia undertaking military action in the West against any of the 31 members of NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

The argument from Carlin and Hecker is particularly irresponsible because they have no way of knowing if North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong-un has reached a drop-dead decision to go to war, which would be suicidal in any event.\u00a0 Since Kim came to power in 2011, he has used his nuclear weapons program to attract attention from the West in order to engage in diplomatic negotiations.\u00a0 There is no reason to believe that the current test of his strategic inventory is any different at this stage.\u00a0 It is unlikely that Kim would make a decision to go to war without the approval of China, just as his grandfather sought the approval of Stalin and Mao before invading the South in 1950.\u00a0 The last thing that China\u2019s Xi Jinping would want right now would be a regional war between North and South Korea that would bring the United States and Japan into the war.<\/span><\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s former ambassador to North Korea, Thomas Schafer, makes far more sense in arguing that Kim is resorting to a buildup of tensions in order to drive a hard bargain should Donald Trump return to the White House.\u00a0 This would, of course, be consistent with Pyongyang\u2019s past efforts to begin negotiations, which have involved cycles of threat and engagement.\u00a0 The United States has contributed to the tension by maintaining a policy of non-recognition of North Korea, which leaves little room for diplomacy and far too much room for reliance on military maneuvering.\u00a0 Many of North Korea\u2019s weapons tests have followed military exercises between the United States and South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Goldstein\u2019s anticipation of an imminent Chinese attack against Taiwan is also puzzling in view of the improved relations between President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping as well as the overall improvement of relations between Washington and Beijing.\u00a0 Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, believes that the \u201cbiggest upside surprise of recent months has got to be the stabilization of U.S.-China relations.\u201d\u00a0 Military-to-military talks have resumed, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has held private talks with China\u2019s top diplomat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the mainstream media is predictably advocating the use of greater military force by the United States.\u00a0 In recent days, for example, the Washington Post<\/i> has run lead editorials that were titled \u201cNorth Korea goes from bad to much, much worse\u201d and \u201cThe U.S. needs to strike Iran, and make it smart.\u201d\u00a0 The New York Times ran a long article (\u201cA Worried NATO Prepares for a Russian Invasion\u201d) that gives credibility to the idea that Putin \u201ccould invade a NATO nation over the coming decade\u201d and that NATO \u201cmight have to face his forces without U.S. support.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Have we forgotten so soon that it was the Bush administration\u2019s misuse of military power against Iraq in 2003 that led to the chaos that now dominates the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.\u00a0 If ever there were a time for official Washington to take a deep breath and to consider the diplomatic options for dealing with Iran and North Korea as well as Russia and China, this is it.<\/span><\/div>\n

The post Why Are Our Regional Experts Expecting More War in Every Corner?<\/a> appeared first on CounterPunch.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

This post was originally published on CounterPunch.org<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

the mainstream media is predictably advocating the use of greater military force by the United States.\u00a0 In recent days, for example, the Washington Post has run lead editorials that were titled \u201cNorth Korea goes from bad to much, much worse\u201d and \u201cThe U.S. needs to strike Iran, and make it smart.\u201d\u00a0 The New York Times ran a long article (\u201cA Worried NATO Prepares for a Russian Invasion\u201d) that gives credibility to the idea that Putin \u201ccould invade a NATO nation over the coming decade\u201d and that NATO \u201cmight have to face his forces without U.S. support.\u201d More<\/a><\/p>\n

The post Why Are Our Regional Experts Expecting More War in Every Corner?<\/a> appeared first on CounterPunch.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,266],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1477666"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1477666"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1477666\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1479910,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1477666\/revisions\/1479910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1477666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1477666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1477666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}