{"id":1508340,"date":"2024-02-20T07:12:12","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T07:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.counterpunch.org\/?p=313901"},"modified":"2024-02-20T07:12:12","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T07:12:12","slug":"electric-water-wars-its-a-dam-crazy-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2024\/02\/20\/electric-water-wars-its-a-dam-crazy-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Electric Water Wars: It\u2019s a Dam Crazy World"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/a>\n
\"\"

Image by Jani Brumat<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n

We live in a world of dangerous, deadly extremes<\/a>. Record-breaking heat waves, intense drought, stronger hurricanes, unprecedented flash flooding. No corner of the planet will be spared the wrath of human-caused climate change and the earth\u2019s fresh water is already feeling the heat of this new reality.\u00a0More than half<\/a>\u00a0of the world\u2019s lakes and\u00a0two-thirds<\/a>\u00a0of its rivers are drying up, threatening ecosystems, farmland, and drinking water supplies. Such diminishing resources are also likely to lead to conflict and even, potentially, all-out war.<\/p>\n

\u201cCompetition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the coming decades,\u201d\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0a study published in\u00a0Global Environmental Change<\/em>\u00a0in 2018. \u201cAlthough water issues alone have not been the sole trigger for warfare in the past, tensions over freshwater management and use represent one of the main concerns in political relations between\u2026 states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability and social unrest.\u201d<\/p>\n

The situation is beyond dire. In 2023, it was\u00a0estimated<\/a>\u00a0that upwards of three billion people, or more than 37% of humanity, faced real water shortages, a crisis predicted to dramatically worsen in the decades to come. Consider it ironic then that, as water is disappearing, huge dams \u2014 more than\u00a03,000<\/a>\u00a0of them \u2014 that require significant river flow to operate are now being built at an unprecedented pace globally. Moreover,\u00a0500<\/a>\u00a0dams are being constructed in legally protected areas like national parks and wildlife reserves. There was a justification for this,\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0the U.N.\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) some years ago. Such projects, it believed, would help battle climate change by curbing carbon dioxide emissions while bringing electricity to those in the greatest of need.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Hydropower] remains the largest source of renewable energy in the electricity sector,\u201d the IPCC\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0in 2018. \u201cEvidence suggests that relatively high levels of deployment over the next 20 years are feasible, and hydropower should remain an attractive renewable energy source within the context of global [greenhouse gas] mitigation scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IPCC acknowledged that unceasing droughts impact stream flow and that climate change is unpredictably worsening matters. Yet its climate experts still contended that hydropower could be a crucial part of the world\u2019s energy transition, arguing that an electric dam will produce seemingly endless energy. At the same time, other renewable sources like wind and solar power have their weather- and sunlight-bound limitations. \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A Crack in the Dam Logic<\/strong><\/p>\n

Well-intentioned as it may have been, it\u2019s now far clearer that there is a crack in the IPCC\u2019s appraisal. For one thing, recent research suggests that hydro-powered dams can create an alarming amount of climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions. Rotting vegetation at the bottom of such reservoirs, especially in warmer climates (as in much of Africa), releases significant amounts of methane, a devastating greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost of this vegetation would have rotted anyway, of course. But, without reservoirs, the decomposition would occur mostly in the atmosphere or in well-oxygenated rivers or lakes,\u201d\u00a0explains<\/a>\u00a0Fred Pearce in the\u00a0Independent<\/em>. \u201cThe presence of oxygen would ensure the carbon in the plants formed carbon dioxide. But many reservoirs, particularly in the tropics, contain little oxygen. Under those anaerobic conditions, rotting vegetation generates methane instead.\u201d<\/p>\n

While\u00a0CO2<\/a>\u00a0also seriously harms the climate, methane emissions are far worse in the short term.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe estimate that dams emit around 25% more methane by unit of surface than previously estimated,\u201d says Bridget Deemer of the School of Environment at Washington State University in Vancouver, lead author of a highly-cited\u00a0study<\/a>\u00a0on greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. \u201cMethane stays in the atmosphere for only around a decade, while CO2 stays several centuries, but over the course of 20 years, methane contributes almost three times more to global warming than CO2.\u201d<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s hardly the only problem dams face in the twenty-first century. At the moment, Chinese financing is the most significant global driver of new hydropower construction. China has invested in the creation of at least\u00a0330 dams in 74 countries<\/a>. Each project poses its own set of environmental quandaries. But above all, the heating of the planet \u2014 last year was the warmest in human history and January 2024 the hottest January on record \u2014 is making many of those investments look increasingly dubious. On this ever-hotter globe of ours, for instance, a drought in Ecuador has all too typically impacted the functionality of the Amaluza Dam on the Paute River, which provides\u00a060%<\/a>\u00a0of that country\u2019s electricity. Paute was running at 40% capacity recently as its river flow dwindled. Similarly, in southern Africa, water levels at the Kariba Dam\u2019s reservoir, located between Zambia and Zimbabwe, have fluctuated drastically, impairing its ability to produce consistent energy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn recent years, drought intensified by climate change has caused reservoirs on all five continents\u2060 to\u00a0drop below levels needed<\/a>\u00a0to maintain hydroelectric production,\u201d\u00a0writes<\/a>\u00a0Jacques Leslie in\u00a0Yale E360<\/em>, \u201cand the problem is bound to worsen as climate change deepens.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even in the United States, the viability of hydropower is an increasing concern. The Hoover Dam on the Colorado River, for example, has been impacted by years of drought. Water levels at its reservoir, Lake Mead, continue to\u00a0plummet<\/a>, raising fears that its days are numbered. The same is true for the Glen Canyon Dam, which also holds back the Colorado, forming Lake Powell. As the Colorado dries up, Glen Canyon may also\u00a0lose<\/a>\u00a0its ability to produce electricity.<\/p>\n

Driven by dwindling water resources, the global hydropower crisis has become a flashpoint in the far reaches of Northern Africa, where the creation of a giant dam could very well lead to a regional war and worse.<\/p>\n

A Crisis on the Nile<\/strong><\/p>\n

The lifeblood of northeastern Africa, the Nile River, flows through 11 countries before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. Measured at 6,650 kilometers, the Nile may be the longest river on Earth. For millennia, its meandering waters, which run through lush jungles and dry deserts, have been irrigating farmlands and providing drinking water for millions of people. Nearly\u00a095%<\/a>\u00a0of Egypt\u2019s 109 million people live within a few kilometers of the Nile. Arguably the most important natural resource in Africa, it\u2019s now at the epicenter of a geopolitical dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan that\u2019s brought those countries to the brink of military conflict.<\/p>\n

A major dam being built along the Blue Nile, the river\u2019s main tributary, is upending the status quo in the region, where Egypt has long been the preeminent nation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD for short) is to become one of the\u00a0largest<\/a>\u00a0hydroelectric dams ever constructed, stretching more than 1,700 meters and standing 145 meters tall, a monument many will love and others despise.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no question that Ethiopia needs the electricity GERD will produce. Nearly 45% of all Ethiopians lack regular power and GERD promises to produce upwards of 5.15 gigawatts of electricity. To put that in perspective, a single gigawatt\u00a0would power<\/a>\u00a0876,000 households annually in the United States. Construction on the dam, which began in 2011, was 90% complete by last August when it began producing power. In total, GERD\u2019s cost is expected to eclipse\u00a0$5 billion<\/a>, making it the largest infrastructure project Ethiopia has ever undertaken and the\u00a0largest dam<\/a>\u00a0on the African continent.<\/p>\n

It will not only bring reliable power to that country but promises a culture shift welcomed by many.\u00a0\u201cMothers who\u2019ve given birth in the dark, girls who fetch wood for fire instead of going to school \u2014 we\u2019ve waited so many years for this \u2014 centuries,\u201d\u00a0says<\/a>\u00a0Filsan Abdi of the Ethiopian Ministry of Women, Children, and Youth. \u201cWhen we say that Ethiopia will be a beacon of prosperity, it starts here.\u201d<\/p>\n

While most Ethiopians may see the dam in a positive light, the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan (itself embroiled in a devastating civil war) were never consulted, and their officials are indignant. The massive reservoir behind GERD\u2019s gigantic cement wall will hold back\u00a074 billion<\/a>\u00a0cubic meters of water. That means Ethiopia will have remarkable control over the flow of the Nile, giving its leaders power over how much access to water both Egyptians and Sudanese will have. The Blue Nile, after all, provides\u00a059%<\/a>\u00a0of Egypt\u2019s freshwater supply.<\/p>\n

As it happens, fresh water in Egypt has long been growing\u00a0scarcer<\/a>\u00a0and so the country\u2019s leadership has taken the threat of GERD seriously for years. In 2012, for instance, Wikileaks obtained internal emails from the \u201cglobal intelligence\u201d firm Stratfor\u00a0revealing<\/a>\u00a0that Egypt and Sudan were even then considering directing the Egyptian Special Forces to destroy the dam, still in the early stages of construction. \u201c[We] are discussing military cooperation with Sudan,\u201d a high-level Egyptian source was quoted as saying. While such a direct attack never transpired, Stratfor claimed that Egypt might once again lend support to \u201cproxy militant groups against Ethiopia\u201d (as it had in the 1970s and 1980s) if diplomacy were to hit a dead end.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the most recent negotiations to calm the hostility around GERD have gone distinctly\u00a0awry<\/a>. Last April, the embittered Egyptians\u00a0responded<\/a>\u00a0to the lack of any significant progress by conducting a three-day military drill with Sudan at a naval base in the Red Sea aimed at frightening Ethiopian officials. \u201cAll options are on the table,\u201d warned Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. \u201c[All] alternatives remain available and Egypt has its capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Seemingly unfazed by such military threats, Ethiopia plans to finish building the dam, claiming it will provide much-needed energy to impoverished Ethiopians and limit the country\u2019s overall carbon footprint. \u201c[GERD] represents a sustainable socio-economic project for Ethiopia: replacing fossil fuels and reducing CO2 emissions,\u201d the Ethiopian embassy in Washington has\u00a0asserted<\/a>.<\/p>\n

GERD, however, falls squarely into the category of being a major problem dam \u2014 and not just because it could lead to a bloody war in a region\u00a0already in horrific turmoil<\/a>. Once filled, its massive reservoir will cover a staggering 1,874 square kilometers, making it more than three-quarters the size of Utah\u2019s Great Salt Lake (after it started to\u00a0shrink<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, GERD never underwent a proper environmental impact assessment (EIA) despite being legally required to do so. No EIA was ever carried out because the notoriously corrupt Ethiopian government knew that the results wouldn\u2019t be pleasing and was unwilling to let any roadblocks get in the way of the dam\u2019s construction, something that became more obvious when upwards of\u00a020,000<\/a>\u00a0indigenous Gumuz and Berta natives began to be forced from their homes to make way for the monstrous dam.<\/p>\n

Publicly coming out against the dam has proven a risky business. Employees of International Rivers, a nonprofit that advocates for people endangered by dams, have been harassed and received\u00a0death threats<\/a>\u00a0in response to their opposition. Prominent Ethiopian journalist\u00a0Reeyot Alemu<\/a>, a critic of the dam and the government\u2019s actions concerning it, was imprisoned for more than four years under draconian anti-terrorism laws.<\/p>\n

Electric Water Wars<\/strong><\/p>\n

While GERD has created a dicey conflict, it also has international ramifications. China, which has played such a pivotal role in bankrolling hydropower projects globally in these years, has provided\u00a0$1.2 billion<\/a>\u00a0to help the Ethiopians build transmission lines from the dam to nearby towns. Since it has also\u00a0heavily invested<\/a>\u00a0in Egypt, it\u2019s well-positioned, if any country is, to help navigate the GERD dispute.<\/p>\n

Military analysts in the United States\u00a0argue<\/a>\u00a0that China\u2019s involvement with the dam is part of a policy meant to put the U.S. at a distinct disadvantage in the race to exploit Africa\u2019s abundant rare earth minerals from the\u00a0cobalt caverns<\/a>\u00a0of the Congo to the\u00a0vast<\/a>\u00a0lithium deposits in Ethiopia\u2019s hinterlands. China, the world\u2019s \u201clargest debt collector<\/a>,\u201d has indeed poured money into Africa. As of 2021, it was that continent\u2019s largest creditor,\u00a0holding 20%<\/a>\u00a0of its total debt. The growth of Chinese influence internationally and in Africa \u2014 it has large infrastructure projects in\u00a035 African countries<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 is crucial to understanding the latest version of the globe\u2019s imperial geopolitics.<\/p>\n

Most of China\u2019s African ventures are connected to Beijing\u2019s \u201cBelt and Road Initiative<\/a>,\u201d a program of this century to fund infrastructure deals across Eurasia and Africa. Its economic ties to Africa began, however, with Chinese leader Mao Zedong\u2019s\u00a0push<\/a>\u00a0in the 1950s and 1960s for an \u201cAfro-Asian<\/a>\u201d alliance that would challenge Western imperialism.<\/p>\n

So many decades later, the idea of such an alliance plays second fiddle to China\u2019s global economic desires, which, like so many past imperial projects in Africa, have significant downsides for those on the receiving end. Developing countries desperately need capital, so they\u2019re willing to accept rigid terms and conditions from China, even if they represent the latest version of the century\u2019s old colonialism and neo-colonialism that focused on controlling the continent\u2019s rich resources. This is certainly true in the case of China\u2019s hydropower investments in places like Ghana\u2019s Bui Dam and the Congo River Dam in the Republic of Congo, where multi-billion-dollar loans are backed by Congo\u2019s crude oil and Ghana\u2019s cocoa crops.<\/p>\n

In 2020, the U.S. belatedly inserted itself into the GERD feud,\u00a0threatening to cut<\/a>\u00a0$130 million in aid for Ethiopia\u2019s anti-terrorism efforts. The Ethiopians believed it was\u00a0related<\/a>\u00a0to the dam controversy, as they also did when, in June 2023, the Biden administration directed USAID to halt all food assistance to the country (upwards of\u00a0$2 billion<\/a>), claiming it wasn\u2019t reaching Ethiopians, only to\u00a0reverse course<\/a>\u00a0months later.<\/p>\n

The dispute over Ethiopia\u2019s enormous dam should be a warning of what the future holds on a hotter, drier planet, where the rivers that feed dams like GERD are drying up while the superpowers continue to jockey for position, hoping to control what remains of the world\u2019s resources. Hydropower won\u2019t help solve the climate crisis, but new dam projects may lead to war over one thing key to our survival \u2014 access to fresh, clean water.<\/p>\n

This piece first appeared at TomDispatch<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The post Electric Water Wars: It’s a Dam Crazy World<\/a> appeared first on CounterPunch.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

This post was originally published on CounterPunch.org<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We live in a world of dangerous, deadly extremes. Record-breaking heat waves, intense drought, stronger hurricanes, unprecedented flash flooding. No corner of the planet will be spared the wrath of human-caused climate change and the earth\u2019s fresh water is already feeling the heat of this new reality.\u00a0More than half\u00a0of the world\u2019s lakes and\u00a0two-thirds\u00a0of its rivers More<\/a><\/p>\n

The post Electric Water Wars: It\u2019s a Dam Crazy World<\/a> appeared first on CounterPunch.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,393,266],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1508340"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/242"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1508340"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1508340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1511302,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1508340\/revisions\/1511302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1508340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1508340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1508340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}