{"id":252924,"date":"2021-07-27T05:01:45","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T05:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dissidentvoice.org\/?p=119268"},"modified":"2021-07-27T05:01:45","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T05:01:45","slug":"afghanistan-failure-and-second-thoughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2021\/07\/27\/afghanistan-failure-and-second-thoughts\/","title":{"rendered":"Afghanistan, Failure and Second Thoughts"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is a country other powers simply cannot leave alone.\u00a0 Even after abandoning its Kabul post in ignominy, tail tucked between their legs, Australia is now wondering if it should return \u2013 in some form.\u00a0 The Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs has been sending out a few signals, none of them definitive.\u00a0 \u201cWe will not comment on intelligence matters,\u201d a spokesman for foreign minister Senator Marise Payne stated<\/a> tersely earlier this month.<\/p>\n

The spokesman was, however, willing to make general remarks about a belated return.\u00a0 When, he could not be sure, but Canberra\u2019s diplomatic arrangements in Afghanistan \u201cwere always expected to be temporary, with the intention of resuming a permanent presence once circumstances permit.\u201d\u00a0 Australia continued \u201cto engage closely with partners, including the Afghanistan government and coalition member countries.\u201d\u00a0 Rather embarrassing remarks, given the sudden closure of the embassy on June 18.<\/p>\n

The Australian response, confused and stumbling, is much like that of their counterparts in Washington.\u00a0 While the Biden administration speeds up the departure of troops, the cord to Kabul remains uncut though distinctly worn.\u00a0 In April, the US House Services Committee was told<\/a> by General Kenneth \u201cFrank\u201d McKenzie, head of US Central Command, that the Pentagon was \u201cfurther planning now for continued counterterrorism operations from within the region.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amanda Dory, acting undersecretary of defense for defense policy, also informed<\/a> members that the Pentagon remained interested in considering \u201chow to continue to apply pressure with respect to potential threats emanating from Afghanistan.\u201d\u00a0 Hazily, she claimed that the department was \u201clooking throughout the region in terms of over-the-horizon opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such window dressing does little to confront the situation on the ground, which looks monstrously bleak for the increasingly titular Kabul government.\u00a0 General Scott Miller, top US military commander in Afghanistan, clumsily admitted<\/a> in June that, \u201cCivil war is certainly a path that can be visualized if this continues on the trajectory it\u2019s on right now.\u201d\u00a0 The hasty withdrawal from Bagram airbase on July 2 certainly gave the Taliban much scope to visualize that fact.<\/p>\n

Unceremoniously hung out to dry in the Doha agreement forged by the US and the Taliban, the frail and terminal regime has imposed a month-long countrywide curfew to address the vigorous onslaught.\u00a0 According to the interior ministry, the curfew is intended<\/a> \u201cto curb violence and limit the Taliban movements\u201d, though it would not apply to Kabul, Panjshir and Nangarhar.<\/p>\n

The US Air Force has also made a dozen airstrikes in southern Afghanistan, concerned by the Taliban\u2019s push towards Kandahar, the second-largest city in the country.\u00a0 \u201cThe United States has increased airstrikes in support of Afghan security forces in the past several days,\u201d announced<\/a> General McKenzie.\u00a0 \u201cAnd we\u2019re prepared to continue this heightened level of support in the coming weeks if the Taliban continue their attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such actions are only band aid measures at best.\u00a0 The surrender of Afghan soldiers to the Taliban across numerous districts is inking the writing on the wall.\u00a0 The response from Kabul is that the Afghan army is behaving strategically, refocusing attention on protecting urban centres.\u00a0 In reality, they have lost both their mettle and the plot, with the Taliban in control of some 85 per cent of the country\u2019s territory, including critical border checkpoints.\u00a0 As a reminder of their emerging dominance, ghoulish material such as video footage showing the execution of 22 elite Afghan commandos, trained by US forces, terrifies government soldiers.<\/p>\n

But McKenzie is a picture of hope over experience.\u00a0 \u201cThe Taliban are attempting to create a sense of inevitability about their campaign.\u00a0 They\u2019re wrong.\u00a0 There is no preordained conclusion to this fight.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other countries are also bubbling with concern, which, when translated into security matters, imply future interference.\u00a0 Russia, bloodied and bruised by its own Afghanistan experience, casts a concerned eye at the Taliban train.\u00a0 \u201cThe uncertainty of the development of the military-political situation in this country and around it has increased,\u201d stated<\/a> Russia\u2019s grave foreign minister Sergey Lavrov earlier this month.\u00a0 \u201cUnfortunately, in recent days we have witnessed a rapid degradation of the situation in Afghanistan.\u201d\u00a0 It was \u201cobvious that in the current conditions there are real risks of an overflow of instability to neighbouring states.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moscow shares, with Washington, a dark paternalism towards the country.\u00a0 While the Biden administration has shown less interest of late, Moscow is looking for reassurance against impending chaos.\u00a0 \u201cIt is the feeling in Moscow,\u201d reasoned<\/a> Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Moscow-based Russia in Global Affairs<\/em>, \u201cthat the US is not able to, or even interested in, maintaining a presence in the region to guarantee any particular future direction in Afghanistan.\u201d\u00a0 The implications of this are ominous enough.<\/p>\n

The emptying of the barracks does not put an end to the prying and meddling from non-Afghan personnel.\u00a0 The country will still host a myriad of special forces and intelligence officials.\u00a0 Excuses for maintaining some militarised footprint will be traditional: the threat posed by terrorism; the thriving opium trade.\u00a0 The contractor business will also boom.\u00a0 A Taliban victory promises a slice of violence for everybody, but so does the presence of this feeble Afghan government.<\/p>The post Afghanistan, Failure and Second Thoughts<\/a> first appeared on Dissident Voice<\/a>.\n

This post was originally published on Dissident Voice<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is a country other powers simply cannot leave alone.\u00a0 Even after abandoning its Kabul post in ignominy, tail tucked between their legs, Australia is now wondering if it should return \u2013 in some form.\u00a0 The Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs has been sending out a few signals, none of them definitive.\u00a0 \u201cWe will [\u2026]<\/p>\n

The post Afghanistan, Failure and Second Thoughts<\/a> first appeared on Dissident Voice<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[186,175,993,4731,615,202],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252924"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=252924"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252924\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":253009,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252924\/revisions\/253009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=252924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=252924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=252924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}