\n <\/figure>\n \n \n The 7 climate tipping points that could change the world forever<\/a>\n <\/p>\n Tipping points are not well understood, says the report, and are \u201cdifficult to predict\u201d using current models of the earth system. Nonetheless, \u201cunderstanding nonlinear responses is really important,\u201d Jacquelyn Gill, a paleoecologist at the University of Maine, told Grist earlier this year<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s probably one of the most important things we can be doing in the climate community right now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The new report identifies 12 tipping points that could lead to potential abrupt climate change. Some, like the potential release of carbon stored in tropical and boreal forests through drought and fire, carried only \u201clow confidence,\u201d according to the report\u2019s authors, meaning that scientists aren\u2019t as certain if this process is at real risk of \u2018tipping\u2019 into a different state. But others, like permafrost melt releasing the carbon stored in Arctic soils — were more certain and designated \u201chigh confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Permafrost is Arctic soil that stays frozen all year and contains ancient reserves of carbon in the form of decomposing organic matter. Globally, permafrost stores almost twice the carbon that is currently in the atmosphere. The cold temperatures of permafrost soil slow down decomposition, meaning that the carbon contained in dead plant and animal matter is locked away for millenia. As temperatures warm and the Arctic heats up, these soils are starting to melt, releasing these vast stores of carbon <\/p>\n\n\n\n The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that the permafrost region has already started to lose more carbon than it captures — releasing 300 million to 600 million metric tons (330 million to 660 tons) of carbon<\/a> annually, which, at the low end, is equivalent to the emissions from electrifying more than 36 million homes. This feedback, in other words, is already well underway. What\u2019s more uncertain, according to the report, is scale and timing: exactly how much carbon will eventually be released, and how fast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Another tipping point that has been in the news recently and is featured in the report is the decline of the currents that circulate the Atlantic ocean (the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, or AMOC). The AMOC is like a conveyor belt driven by sinking water that becomes heavy, cold, and salty as it approaches the Arctic, near Greenland. As the climate warms, fresh water pours into the ocean, diluting the salty, dense water and making it less likely to sink, weakening the current. Past research has found that the current is at its lowest strength in 1,600 years<\/a>, and a new study released just last week<\/a> found more evidence that is is being destabilized. <\/p>\n\n\n \n 
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