{"id":2733,"date":"2020-12-17T18:16:59","date_gmt":"2020-12-17T18:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/?p=140548"},"modified":"2020-12-17T18:16:59","modified_gmt":"2020-12-17T18:16:59","slug":"analysis-nagorno-karabakh-war-transforms-the-legacy-of-azerbaijani-president-aliyev","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2020\/12\/17\/analysis-nagorno-karabakh-war-transforms-the-legacy-of-azerbaijani-president-aliyev\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Nagorno-Karabakh War Transforms The Legacy Of Azerbaijani President\u00a0Aliyev\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Azerbaijan\u2019s victory in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh has transformed President Ilham Aliyev\u2019s political stature &#8212; boosting his popularity to levels he never experienced during his 17 years of authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n<p>The return of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan\u2019s control, along with all seven occupied districts around the breakaway region, has changed the way many in the country view Aliyev\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n<p>Experts say Aliyev\u2019s historical legacy has been transformed.<\/p>\n<p>They also say Baku\u2019s battlefield victories have forced Azerbaijan\u2019s opposition to search for a new narrative to mobilize their support.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because resolution now appears possible on the main social issue embraced for decades by Azerbaijan\u2019s political opposition &#8212; the plight of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis displaced by Armenian forces during the early 1990s from their homes in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.<\/p>\n<p>Azerbaijan\u2019s victory was greeted in Baku by scenes of euphoria and rapturous patriotic pride as citizens draped themselves in the national flag and danced in the streets &#8212; including many who carried portraits of Aliyev.<\/p>\n<p>Postwar media reports in the country now refer to Aliyev by the title \u201cVictorious Supreme Commander in Chief.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Even the political opposition in Baku &#8212; decimated by years of repression that culminated in a <a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/azerbaijan-s-despotic-ruler-throws-tantrum-in-unprecedented-crackdown-on-pro-democracy-rivals\/30757480.html\">brutal police crackdown in July<\/a> &#8212; has offered praise of Aliyev since a Russian-brokered cease-fire agreement was signed on November 9.<\/p>\n<p>Amid the wave of national pride, Aliyev has been hailed as a national hero. Few in Baku appear willing to openly criticize him &#8212; at least at this time.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/life-returns-to-stepanakert-nagorno-karabakh-in-wake-of-conflict\/30983787.html\" title=\"Life Returns To Stepanakert \" class=\"img-wrap\"><span class=\"thumb thumb16_9\"><\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/D651C2B7-3F6A-49D8-B632-48D67CB07C9A_w250_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"Life Returns To Stepanakert \" \/><\/p>\n<p> <img data-src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/D651C2B7-3F6A-49D8-B632-48D67CB07C9A_w250_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"Life Returns To Stepanakert \" \/><\/span><\/a> <span class=\"label label--media label--inverted m-l-sm\">Photo Gallery:<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 class=\"title title--media title--inverted m-l-sm\">Life Returns To Stepanakert<\/h4>\n<div class=\"c-lightbox__intro-source\">\n<div class=\"c-lightbox__intro-content\">\n<p>In the wake of a Russian-brokered cease-fire, a strange new normal returns to Nagorno-Karabakh&#8217;s largest city.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"share js-share--expandable c-lightbox__sharing\" data-counter-separator=\".\" data-counter-url=\"\/a\/life-returns-to-stepanakert-nagorno-karabakh-in-wake-of-conflict\/30983787.html\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ilgar Mammadov, leader of the opposition REAL party, recently told RFE\/RL that historians could find merit in Aliyev\u2019s claim that he has continued the policy of his father, Heydar Aliyev, who was president from 1993 until his death in 2003, when Ilham took over.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is a need for big research by historians here,\u201d Mammadov said. \u201cBut from a political point of view I can say that in 1994 &#8212; a period when Azerbaijan was truly weak in military, political, and most importantly, economic terms &#8212; Heydar Aliyev stopped the war without surrendering the country. He began to gain strength for the country &#8212; that\u2019s what Ilham Aliyev is saying now &#8212; and managed to do so.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mammadov also suggested there is a new national unity in the aftermath of the war.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you look at the pressure that is now being exerted on Azerbaijan &#8212; which we all, the whole nation, the opposition and the authorities, are trying to resist &#8212; then imagine the pressure on Azerbaijan in those times,\u201d Mammadov said.<\/p>\n<p>Aliyev also has spoken about a new unity in Azerbaijan as a result of the war.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis unity will allow us the opportunity to revive the liberated lands and return our internally displaced people to those lands as soon as possible,\u201d Aliyev said in a victory speech he gave in Baku on December 10 alongside visiting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Karabakh region, our beautiful historical land, will be reborn, revived, and revitalized,\u201d Aliyev told the cheering crowd in Baku.<\/p>\n<p><big><strong>Historical Legacy<\/strong><\/big><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat just happened was probably the greatest military and diplomatic victory in Azerbaijan\u2019s history,\u201d said Matthew Bryza, a former U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan who cochaired negotiations over the conflict as Washington\u2019s envoy in the OSCE\u2019s Minsk Group.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cClearly the presidency wants to highlight that. And, of course, that\u2019s popular. This is his legacy now,\u201d Bryza told RFE\/RL.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUntil this war, Ilham Aliyev\u2019s legacy was jeopardized because he had been unable to recover any significant amounts of Azerbaijan\u2019s own territory,\u201d Bryza explained. \u201cMost likely, he realized that he would then have gone down in history as having not been able to regain the territories.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNow that goal, that legacy, has changed and is positive for Ilham Aliyev,\u201d Bryza said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s precisely the fact that he was the commander in chief when this victory happened that cements a positive legacy for him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><big><strong>Populist Persona<\/strong><\/big><\/p>\n<p>But Azerbaijan\u2019s territorial gains aren\u2019t the only factor that has bolstered Aliyev\u2019s popularity since full-scale war reignited over Nagorno-Karabakh on September 27.<\/p>\n<p>Political observers say Aliyev\u2019s public persona also has received a makeover during the 44-day war.<\/p>\n<p>Bahruz Samadov, a doctoral student at Charles University in Prague, is researching the logic and motivations of Aliyev\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAliyev\u2019s popularity reached its peak during the war; the opposition leaders stopped their criticism, while Aliyev\u2019s actions were perceived as a just and victorious war,\u201d Samadov wrote in a <a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.boell.de\/en\/2020\/12\/10\/azerbaijan-update-covid-19-new-war-nagorno-karabakh?dimension1=startseite\">paper published recently<\/a> by the Berlin-based Heinrich Boell Stiftung.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe active support of Turkey during the conflict inevitably led to the rearticulation and dynamic perception of Turkey as the \u2018big brother,\u2019\u201d Samadov said.<\/p>\n<div class=\"backgrounder content-floated overlap-md\">\n<div class=\"wsw\">\n<h3 class=\"wsw__h3\">The War As Seen From Azerbaijan<\/h3>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img alt src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/5E6BCB9B-CF50-4D8C-86FF-BD9D75EFDC0A_cx0_cy25_cw100_w250_r1_s.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Journalist Seymur Kazimov gives an <strong><a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/a-terrible-vision-the-war-over-nagorno-karabakh-as-seen-from-azerbaijan-\/30893110.html\"  rel=\"noopener\">Azerbaijani perspective<\/a><\/strong> on working near the front lines in the worst violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia in more than a quarter of a century.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Samadov told RFE\/RL that Aliyev also began to present himself in a new way during the war &#8212; as someone who is closer to ordinary Azerbaijani citizens.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a new shift to where we\u2019ve never been,\u201d Samadov said. \u201cBefore the war, he\u2019d been criticized as being distant from the people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut if we look at Aliyev\u2019s speeches during the war, we see he extensively used metaphors and expressions in the way ordinary people speak and think in Azerbaijan,\u201d Samadov said. \u201cNow he speaks like the people &#8212; and people enjoy his speeches.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Samadov concludes that Aliyev\u2019s domestic political goal before Baku\u2019s battlefield victories had been to maintain \u201cthe hegemony of the ruling party\u201d &#8212; cracking down on his political opponents while sustaining \u201cpassive acceptance\u201d of his rule from ordinary Azerbaijanis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNow he actually enjoys popular support,\u201d Samadov says. \u201cIf you look at the victory parade in Azerbaijan on December 10 and how he behaved, it shows a turn from hegemonical totalitarianism &#8212; with its apathy and passive acceptance by the people, to authoritarian populism, where he actually enjoys mass support.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><big><strong>Potential Pitfalls<\/strong><\/big><\/p>\n<p>The next question for Aliyev is how long can he ride the current wave of patriotism and national pride that has swept Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know what the ramifications are for domestic politics in the longer run,\u201d Bryza said. \u201cIt\u2019s still so soon since the cease-fire agreement was signed. But I think the agreement is seen as increasingly popular now in Azerbaijan. So that would make President Aliyev stronger politically.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Alex Raufoglu, a Washington-based Azerbaijan specialist for Amnesty International and a correspondent for the independent Turan news agency, agrees it is too early to determine how long Aliyev\u2019s current level of popularity will last.<\/p>\n<p>Raufoglu says issues that dogged Aliyev\u2019s presidency before September could return to haunt him &#8212; including economic mismanagement, systemic corruption, and the government\u2019s poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Two main opposition groups that supported the war &#8212; Musavat and the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AXCP) &#8212; also have signaled remaining concerns over the Russian-brokered cease-fire agreement.<\/p>\n<p>Both parties supported the war but have criticized the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.<\/p>\n<p>Baku-based political analyst Sahin Haciyev tells RFE\/RL that Aliyev\u2019s popularity could suffer in the long term without a resolution to the issue of disputed territory in Nagorno-Karabakh that is still under Armenian control.<\/p>\n<p>Haciyev says Aliyev also needs to foster political reforms and economic change in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p>But for now, the focus is on how soon Azerbaijan\u2019s internally displaced population can return to what is left of their homes in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhether or not his popularity will still be there five months from now, we\u2019ll have to see,\u201d Raufoglu told RFE\/RL. \u201cEven as we speak today, we keep hearing about cease-fire violations. So for many people it\u2019s still the same old, same old.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany people hope they can return back to their homes,\u201d Raufoglu continued. \u201cBut it\u2019s too early to see yet whether people will be able to return this time and what the future of the land will look like.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><big><strong>Reconstruction And Resettlement<\/strong><\/big><\/p>\n<p>Bryza says that before any full-scale return of displaced Azerbaijanis can happen, the recently recovered territories must be cleared of unexploded ordnance.<\/p>\n<p>He notes that Azerbaijan\u2019s demining agency already has said it will take three years to sufficiently remove all explosives so that displaced people can safely return.<\/p>\n<p>And removing unexploded ordnance is just one of Aliyev\u2019s new challenges.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe full range of tasks to rebuild the seven recovered territories and Nagorno-Karabakh is daunting,\u201d Bryza told RFE\/RL. \u201cThe Azerbaijani government estimates it will cost somewhere around $100 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen I last visited the district of Agdam, no structure was intact,\u201d Bryza explained. \u201cEverything was taken, completely, by the Armenian side. The bricks above the surface of the ground, all the wiring, all the windows, all the doors in many cases. Everything has to be rebuilt.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere needs to be, in the short term, shelter and then more permanent housing. And then all of the normal infrastructure for energy, gas pipelines, electricity, water, schools &#8212; everything has to be rebuilt. It\u2019s a daunting challenge, a huge task,\u201d says Bryza.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAzerbaijan doesn\u2019t have the money to do that,\u201d he adds. \u201cIt\u2019s going to need international support.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>To receive international support, Bryza says Baku must \u201cobtain the moral high ground\u201d &#8212; allowing Armenians to remain in their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh and making them feel safe there.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA full victory for Azerbaijan requires Azerbaijan to demonstrate to the international community that they\u2019ve never had intentions to commit, as the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian has accused, genocide or ethnic cleansing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s a tall order. That\u2019s why there is a Russian peacekeeping contingent,\u201d he says. \u201cThe Russian peacekeepers on the ground are a geopolitical setback for NATO, for the United States, and first and foremost, for Azerbaijan. But without them, I don\u2019t think there is any way ethnic Armenians would remain in Nagorno-Karabakh.\u201d<\/p>\n<h6 class=\"wsw__h6\">RFE\/RL\u2019s Azerbaijani Service contributed to this report<\/h6>\n\n<p class=\"syndicated-attribution\">This post was originally published on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/2020\/12\/17\/analysis-nagorno-karabakh-war-transforms-the-legacy-of-azerbaijani-president-aliyev\/\">Radio Free<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Azerbaijan\u2019s victory in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh has transformed President Ilham Aliyev\u2019s political stature \u2014 boosting his popularity to levels he never experienced during his 17 years of\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,107,4,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2733"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2734,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733\/revisions\/2734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}