{"id":3299,"date":"2020-12-21T18:08:01","date_gmt":"2020-12-21T18:08:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/?p=141976"},"modified":"2020-12-21T18:08:01","modified_gmt":"2020-12-21T18:08:01","slug":"analysis-scandals-increase-tensions-ahead-of-controversial-elections-in-kazakhstan-kyrgyzstan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2020\/12\/21\/analysis-scandals-increase-tensions-ahead-of-controversial-elections-in-kazakhstan-kyrgyzstan\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Scandals Increase Tensions Ahead Of Controversial Elections In Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan"},"content":{"rendered":"
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are holding elections on January 10, the results of which will inevitably be unpopular with segments of the two countries\u2019 populations before and after election day.<\/p>\n
Kazakhstan\u2019s Nur-Otan party, created in 1999 to keep Nursultan Nazarbaev in power and still headed by the now former president, is expected to retain its omnipotent position in parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n
In Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov is also expected on January 10, 2021, to formalize his meteoric rise from prisoner to president in barely three months and will likely enjoy greater powers than previous Kyrgyz presidents as the country also votes on a referendum to move from a parliamentary system of government back to a presidential one.<\/p>\n
Such outcomes are already unpalatable to many people in both countries, but those who seem sure to win in these upcoming elections are connected to recent scandals that are tarnishing the image of their countries and providing their opponents with additional reasons to reject the results of these polls.<\/p>\n
That will almost surely result in a rise in tensions in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.<\/p>\n
Same Old, Same Old In Kazakhstan<\/strong><\/big><\/p>\n Nur-Otan is the party of first Kazakh President Nazarbaev and, as mentioned, has been since the day it was created. The party was originally called Otan, which means \u201cFatherland,\u201d but in December 2006 party members decided to add Nur (radiant) to the title, which certainly emphasized whose party it was.<\/p>\n Nur-Otan has won the majority of seats in every election it has participated in; from the first in 1999, when the party won 23 of 77 seats available to the last election in 2016 when the party won 84 of 98 seats at stake.<\/p>\n It would be remiss not to recall the party\u2019s greatest victory, in 2007, when Nur-Otan took all 98 of the seats, leaving the other six token parties participating in those elections out in the cold.<\/p>\n It is also important to note that Western election observers have not ever deemed a presidential or parliamentary election in Kazakhstan as “free and fair.”<\/p>\n With such a background, it is fair to assume the Nur-Otan party will prove equally successful on January 10.<\/p>\n It will, however, be the first time the party is running without Nazarbaev as president.<\/p>\n Nazarbaev stepped down from office in March 2019.<\/p>\n His chosen successor, Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, is officially the president, though many believe Nazarbaev still runs the country.<\/p>\n The transfer of the presidential office has made little difference in the style of governance in Kazakhstan, but it did reinvigorate a largely dormant opposition in the country that hoped a change in presidents would also lead to a change away from the authoritarian ways of Nazarbaev.<\/p>\n There have been visible signs of discontent ever since Toqaev took over, including some of the biggest demonstrations Kazakhstan has seen in some 20 years.<\/p>\n One of the candidates from Nur-Otan in the upcoming elections is Darigha Nazarbaeva, the unpopular daughter of Nazarbaev.<\/p>\n She was the chairwoman of Kazakhstan\u2019s Senate, the position next in line to the presidency (having taken over for Toqaev when he moved to the president’s office) until May, before scandals surrounding her brought much unwanted international attention on Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n There were reports in foreign media about expensive property she and her oldest son Nurali owned in Britain, including one building that served as the address of the famous fictional detective Sherlock Holmes.<\/p>\n And her younger son, Aisultan, who had drug-abuse problems, had taken to posting on social networks again at the start of 2020, claiming once that his father was really Nazarbaev, who is his grandfather, and also alleging that someone in his family wanted him dead.<\/p>\n It was not the first time Nazarbaeva had to leave the political scene.<\/p>\n She also took a hiatus from politics after she divorced her first husband, Rakhat Aliev, in 2007 and she stayed away while her former husband hurled serious accusations from self-exile in Europe about the corrupt and criminal practices of Nazarbaev and his government. She only returned as a candidate for Nur-Otan in the 2012 parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n Her ex-husband Aliev died under mysterious circumstances while being held in an Austrian prison in 2015. Officially ruled a suicide, there were many credible reports that suggest Aliev was killed.<\/p>\n Her son, Aisultan, died of a heart seizure allegedly caused by cocaine usage in August of this year.<\/p>\n But it seems Darigha is now returning to politics.<\/p>\n Timur Kulibaev is the husband of Dinara Nazarbaeva, ex-President Nazarbaev\u2019s second daughter.<\/p>\n It is well known that Kulibaev is rich and he and Dinara are regularly listed as being among the wealthiest people in Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n On December 4, the Financial Times reported Kulibaev received millions of dollars from a pipeline scheme involving purchases of steel from China that went to Ukraine and Russia for processing into pipeline segments that were sold to companies building the Central Asia-China natural-gas pipelines.<\/a><\/p>\n The report only mentioned $53 million and some people think Kulibaev has made a lot more shady money than that in his far-flung business dealings. But the report in the Financial Times again brought unwanted attention on Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n On December 9, Kulibaev called on Kazakhstan\u2019s prosecutor-general to investigate these allegations,<\/a> though it is difficult to say who would be persuaded by Kulibaev being cleared by Kazakhstan\u2019s Prosecutor-General’s Office.<\/p>\n