{"id":477636,"date":"2022-01-20T15:45:58","date_gmt":"2022-01-20T15:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/radiofree.asia\/?guid=745b9805b852d58b16d87ec8c3d8831b"},"modified":"2022-01-20T15:45:58","modified_gmt":"2022-01-20T15:45:58","slug":"amid-rising-russia-tension-us-may-stumble-into-war-warns-katrina-vanden-heuvel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2022\/01\/20\/amid-rising-russia-tension-us-may-stumble-into-war-warns-katrina-vanden-heuvel\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid Rising Russia Tension, US May Stumble Into War, Warns Katrina vanden Heuvel"},"content":{"rendered":"\"Amid<\/a>

President Biden said Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a \u201cserious and dear price\u201d if he orders his reported 100,000 troops stationed along the Russian-Ukraine border to invade Ukraine, a scenario Biden says is increasingly likely. This comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Ukraine\u2019s president on Wednesday, similarly warning Russia could attack Ukraine on \u201cvery short notice.\u201d We speak with The Nation<\/em>\u2019s Katrina vanden Heuvel, who says the hawkish U.S. approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a waste of national resources, and says the U.S. should pursue diplomacy instead of throwing around threats of expanding NATO<\/span> into Eastern Europe. \u201cMore attention should be paid to how we can exit these conflicts, how we can find a way for an independent Ukraine,\u201d says vanden Heuvel, who calls the Ukraine conflict a civil war turned into a proxy war. \u201cIf there is creative diplomacy, I think you could see a resolution of this crisis.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

TRANSCRIPT<\/h2>\n

This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.<\/em><\/p>\n

AMY<\/span> GOODMAN<\/span>:<\/strong> President Biden said Wednesday he expects Russia will invade Ukraine, but predicted Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want a full-blown war. Russia has reportedly stationed about 100,000 troops on its Ukraine border and sent troops into Belarus, which also shares a border with Ukraine. Biden said Washington\u2019s response to a Russian invasion will depend on its severity.<\/p>\n

\n

PRESIDENT<\/span> JOE<\/span> BIDEN<\/span>:<\/strong> Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It\u2019s one thing if it\u2019s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, etc. But if they actually do what they\u2019re capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

AMY<\/span> GOODMAN<\/span>:<\/strong> Biden\u2019s remarks about a \u201cminor incursion\u201d alarmed officials in Ukraine. Shortly after the news conference ended, Biden\u2019s press secretary, Jen Psaki, released a statement clarifying Biden\u2019s comments about a \u201cminor incursion\u201d by saying, quote, \u201cIf any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that\u2019s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

During the news conference, President Biden also predicted Russian President Vladimir Putin will move troops into Ukraine. This is Biden responding to a question from David Sanger of The New York Times<\/em> about Putin.<\/p>\n

\n

PRESIDENT<\/span> JOE<\/span> BIDEN<\/span>:<\/strong> I think he still does not want any full-blown war, number one. Number two, do I think he\u2019ll test the West, test the United States and NATO<\/span> as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will. But I think he\u2019ll pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn\u2019t think now will cost him what it\u2019s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it. \u2026<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not so sure he has \u2014 is certain what he\u2019s going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something. And, by the way, I\u2019ve indicated to him \u2014 the two things he said to me that he wants guarantees on: One is Ukraine will never be part of NATO<\/span>, and, two, that NATO<\/span> \u2014 or, there will not be strategic weapons stationed in Ukraine. Well, we can work out something on the second piece, [inaudible] what he does along the Russian line, as well, or the Russian border, in the European area of Russia. \u2026<\/p>\n

DAVID<\/span> SANGER<\/span>:<\/strong> Mr. President, it sounds like you\u2019re offering some way out here, some off-ramp. And it sounds like what it is, is at least an informal assurance that NATO<\/span> is not going to take in Ukraine anytime in the next few decades. And it sounds like you\u2019re saying we would never put nuclear weapons there. He also wants us to move all of our nuclear weapons out of Europe and not have troops rotating through the old Soviet Bloc. Do you think there\u2019s space there, as well?<\/p>\n

PRESIDENT<\/span> JOE<\/span> BIDEN<\/span>:<\/strong> No. No, there\u2019s not space for that. We won\u2019t permanently station, but the idea we\u2019re not going to \u2014 we\u2019re going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, etc., if in fact he moves, because we have a sacred obligation in Article 5 to defend those countries. They are part of NATO<\/span>. We don\u2019t have that obligation relative to Ukraine, although we have great concern about what happens in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

AMY<\/span> GOODMAN<\/span>:<\/strong> That\u2019s President Biden speaking at his two-hour news conference Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Secretary of State Tony Blinken is planning to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Friday. Blinken is meeting with some of his NATO<\/span> counterparts in Berlin today and was in Kyiv Wednesday.<\/p>\n

To talk about U.S.-Russian relations, we\u2019re joined by Katrina vanden Heuvel, editorial director and publisher of The Nation<\/em> magazine. She has been reporting from Russia and on Russia for the last 30 years. She\u2019s also a columnist for The Washington Post<\/em>. Her latest piece<\/a> is headlined \u201cStop the stumble toward war with Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n

In your piece, you write, \u201cIn the technical argot of diplomacy, what\u2019s going on in the Ukraine crisis is nuts.\u201d Katrina, can you first respond to what President Biden said, what the White House took back after, and actually what is going on?<\/p>\n

KATRINA<\/span> VANDEN<\/span> HEUVEL<\/span>:<\/strong> Well, I mean, Amy, first of all, what you just listened to, David Sanger of The New York Times<\/em>, who\u2019s been on the beat to promote a conflict or war with Russia for \u2014 with Russia-Ukraine for several years. What\u2019s going on is that the most immediate task is to defuse the immediate crisis. And you can hear in Biden\u2019s \u2014 the interstitial pieces of Biden, if you decipher what he said, that there is room, if there was creative diplomacy, if there was as much time spent pondering what Putin is going to do or worrying about the \u2014 you know, not even worrying, but ginning up war.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s clear is that three presidents \u2014 Obama, Trump and even Biden \u2014 have said that Ukraine is not a national security, vital security interest of the United States. No president at this moment is going to send men and women to Ukraine to fight. It has become a proxy war, however. It\u2019s been geopoliticized, when in fact it\u2019s a civil war. And there is this relationship between Russia and Ukraine, and it also goes back to the bigger issue, Amy, of NATO<\/span> expansion. In 1997, there was a vigorous debate in this country about NATO<\/span> expansion, and key people who knew Russia well warned it would lead to a new Cold War.<\/p>\n

So, here we are. And I think it \u2014 you know, we\u2019re living at a time, Amy, of pandemic, of racial division, of staggering economic inequality, of climate crisis. And to go to war, or even to contemplate these two new Cold Wars, Russia and China, seems to me nuts. And more attention should be paid to how we can exit these conflicts, how we can find a way for an independent Ukraine, free and whole, between East and West, as opposed to all this talk about more military massing on the border, or even \u2014 and I\u2019ll end here \u2014 The New York Times<\/i> the other day planting anonymous intelligence sources warning of a false flag operation which would create a pretext for Russian invasion. There is that danger. Why I use the word \u201cstumble\u201d is that it, you know, looks a little like World War I, where some accident could happen. You\u2019ve got two nuclear-armed countries. And I think instead of focusing on troops and this, let\u2019s find a diplomatic \u2014 tough diplomatic solution, and let\u2019s begin the arms control work that needs to be done. The INF<\/span> could be brought back; it was abolished by John Bolton and Trump, 2019. Today\u2019s the Doomsday Clock announcement. Will it be closer to midnight, which is perilous? Lots of work to be done, instead of all this talk about war, war, war, troops, troops, troops.<\/p>\n

NERMEEN<\/span> SHAIKH<\/span>:<\/strong> Well, Katrina, we\u2019ll go back in a second to, as you said, a possible diplomatic resolution to the conflict, you know, Blinken\u2019s meetings in the last couple of days, and tomorrow meeting with Lavrov. But you mentioned \u2014 and this is a critical issue \u2014 the question of NATO<\/span> expansion since 1997. I mean, it\u2019s staggering. There have been a very large number of countries that have joined since 1997, Eastern European countries: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and, most recently, North Macedonia. So, two questions: First of all, could you explain why Russia is especially concerned about Ukraine joining NATO<\/span>? And also, what the significance, the importance of, what the function is of NATO<\/span>, now that the \u2014 I mean, it\u2019s been decades now that the Warsaw Pact was dissolved?<\/p>\n

KATRINA<\/span> VANDEN<\/span> HEUVEL<\/span>:<\/strong> That is the central question, Nermeen. I mean, when the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, naturally one would think NATO<\/span> would be dissolved, and we would find a new security architecture that wasn\u2019t a militarized one. By the way, in 1997, people like Paul Nitze \u2014 I mean, Paul Nitze, Richard Pipes, McNamara, these people opposed the expansion. But put that aside. The expansion of NATO<\/span> was the expansion of a military institution, which is dominated by the United States. This is no coffee klatsch. This is a group which brings weapons to the fore. You have to buy certain weapons, you know, get in sync with the whole operation. There are other institutions that could have created, as Mikhail Gorbachev had spoken of a \u201ccommon European home\u201d from Vladivostok to Lisbon, which wouldn\u2019t have been militarized.<\/p>\n

You know, Russia, the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II. There is a real continuing fear, even in younger generations, about being encircled. And, you know, we had our Monroe Doctrine. We had our spheres of influence. What if Mexico \u2014 what if Soviet troops had \u2014 Russian troops suddenly decided to alight in Mexico? Borders matter, especially in the Russian historical consciousness. But that is playing a role right now. Ukraine, unlike the other countries you mentioned, has had a very special relationship with Russia, and Russia with Ukraine. Ukraine is a divided country. It is a country that has a right to be fully independent. But it is very much in \u2014 a lot of Russians are intermarried with Ukraine. Ukraine is not like Montenegro. And so, I think one has to understand that there is an expression in foreign affairs called strategic empathy. I mean, you try \u2014 and if there was standing in the other\u2019s shoes, not condoning, but understanding, I think we would be in a better place.<\/p>\n

Finally, Article 5 of NATO<\/span> demands that NATO<\/span> members go to the military assistance of countries which are invaded. I come back to the fact that, first of all, no American president, in my understanding, will send American men and women to fight. There is talk of funding an insurgency in Ukraine. How did that turn out in Afghanistan when we funded the mujahideen?<\/p>\n

So, there are a lot of issues. But, you know, Gorbachev was promised after German reunification that NATO<\/span> would not move one inch eastward. That is to be found in archives \u2014 National Security Archive, for example. And there is kind of a thought that Putin is asking for written material because he thinks that might protect him from Gorbachev\u2019s fate. I don\u2019t think so. But again I come back to, if there is creative diplomacy, I think you could see a resolution of this crisis. And to have war at this time is to add to the other wars we confront, climate, pandemics.<\/p>\n

NERMEEN<\/span> SHAIKH<\/span>:<\/strong> And as far as the negotiations are concerned, Katrina, can you talk about what we know so far about what happened in the meetings between Zelensky and Blinken, and today his meetings with his counterparts in the EU, and what to expect from what might happen tomorrow with Blinken\u2019s meeting with Lavrov? Yesterday also, on Wednesday, French President Macron, going against what the U.S. has called for, has urged EU states to speak directly to Russia. Could you comment on that, as well?<\/p>\n

KATRINA<\/span> VANDEN<\/span> HEUVEL<\/span>:<\/strong> That, I think, is very important, and it speaks to a diplomatic resolution that may be able to be revived, either called Minsk, the Minsk agreement, or the Normandy agreement, which was originally Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine, not the United States. But I think it\u2019s a good sign that European countries may have more independence \u2014 France, Germany \u2014 in working out something with Russia.<\/p>\n

And I think, you know, what is happening in Ukraine, I don\u2019t know, except that Zelensky\u2019s rival arrived in Ukraine, Kyiv, the other day, the \u201cChocolate King,\u201d who was the previous president, and was arrested and is sitting in a courthouse. Why that\u2019s happening now maybe exposes some of the real problems in Ukraine. By the way, Ukraine couldn\u2019t legally enter NATO<\/span> right now, because its territorial integrity is not whole.<\/p>\n

I think Lavrov \u2014 and I\u2019ll get in trouble for this \u2014 is one of the most steady and experienced diplomats working today. So I think if Blinken and Lavrov could get beyond some of the kind of rhetoric, you could see some real dealings that would be a resolution, perhaps moving back to Minsk and\/or finding EU as a vehicle or finding the OSCE<\/span>, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. So, I think this is hopeful that there are ongoing meetings, because I do think the crisis immediately, the importance of that being defused then gives some space.<\/p>\n

NERMEEN<\/span> SHAIKH<\/span>:<\/strong> And, Katrina, before we turn to other aspects of Biden\u2019s comments yesterday and assessment of his first year in office, one last point on what\u2019s happening now in Ukraine. I mean, the U.S. and EU have discussed the possibility of wide-ranging sanctions against Russia as a first step. I mean, there are already sanctions in place. Could you say something about the kinds of sanctions that are being contemplated and the significance of the U.S. possibly cutting Russia off from the dollar-denominated international financial system? What would that mean, and how likely is it?<\/p>\n

KATRINA<\/span> VANDEN<\/span> HEUVEL<\/span>:<\/strong> Well, I think you\u2019re certainly hearing a lot of talk about punitive sanctions, you know, onerous sanctions. First of all, one needs to understand there are already layers and layers of sanctions on Russia. In fact, the Democrats put forward their sanction bill the other day, and I believe it was Cruz put forward one.<\/p>\n

I do think the SWIFT<\/span> removing Russia from the global trading system could have real implications, but, you know, that could push Russia closer to China and an alternative currency, which would not be helpful to the Europeans or to the United States.<\/p>\n

And I think the \u2014 again, in Germany, you have the big issue of Nord Stream, the pipeline. It\u2019s an interesting moment, because that is not yet fully approved. There are still regulatory issues. You now have a new government in Germany. The foreign minister is a Green, and the Greens are opposed to the pipeline for environmental and other reasons. So that may be played out apart from sanctions imposed by the United States.<\/p>\n

In general, sanctions have not worked. They have made countries more resistant to U.S. pressure. And I think the whole matter of sanction as a foreign policy, in some cases it\u2019s the equivalent of war. The humanitarian cost has to be thought through.<\/p>\n

AMY<\/span> GOODMAN<\/span>:<\/strong> We\u2019re going to leave it there for now and, of course, continue to cover this issue, Katrina vanden Heuvel, editorial director and publisher of The Nation<\/em> magazine, columnist for The Washington Post<\/em>. We\u2019ll link to your pieces<\/a> there, the latest one<\/a>, \u201cStop the stumble toward war with Russia.\u201d Katrina is going to stay with us as we look at President Biden\u2019s first year in office and the Senate\u2019s failure to pass voting rights legislation after Manchin and Sinema sided with the Republicans to block changing the filibuster. And we will be joined, as well, by Ralph Nader. Stay with us.<\/p>\n\n

This post was originally published on Latest \u2013 Truthout<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\"Amid<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cMore attention should be paid to how we can exit these conflicts, how we can find a way for an independent Ukraine.\u201d<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1462,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1328,3153,463,51,712,24,376,3089,204],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477636"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1462"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=477636"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477636\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":477637,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477636\/revisions\/477637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=477636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=477636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=477636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}