{"id":4840,"date":"2021-01-04T23:57:10","date_gmt":"2021-01-04T23:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/?p=146146"},"modified":"2021-01-04T23:57:10","modified_gmt":"2021-01-04T23:57:10","slug":"are-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2021\/01\/04\/are-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office\/","title":{"rendered":"Are US and Iran headed for a military showdown before Trump leaves office?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pf-content\">\n<p><strong>ANALYSIS:<\/strong> <em>By<\/em> <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/clive-williams-1192936\">Clive Williams<\/a>,<\/em> <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Tensions are running high in the Middle East in the waning days of the Trump administration.<\/p>\n<p>Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif claimed Israeli agents were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usa-iran-israel-zarif-idUSKBN2970E9\">planning to attack US forces in Iraq<\/a> to provide US President Donald Trump with a pretext for striking Iran.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">New intelligence from Iraq indicate that Israeli agent-provocateurs are plotting attacks against Americans\u2014putting an outgoing Trump in a bind with a fake casus belli.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful of a trap, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@realDonaldTrump<\/a>. Any fireworks will backfire badly, particularly against your same BFFs.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Javad Zarif (@JZarif) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JZarif\/status\/1345370089063915523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 2, 2021<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-vows-revenge-for-soleimanis-killing-but-heres-why-it-wont-seek-direct-confrontation-with-the-us-129440\">US assassination of Iran\u2019s charismatic General Qassem Soleimani<\/a>, the head of Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards also warned his country would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/iran-general-warns-us-military-ready-to-respond-to-pressure\/2021\/01\/01\/dd3e76fe-4c30-11eb-97b6-4eb9f72ff46b_story.html?outputType=amp\">respond forcefully to any provocations<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Today, we have no problem, concern or apprehension toward encountering any powers. We will give our final words to our enemies on the battlefield.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/joe-bidens-approach-to-the-middle-east-will-be-very-different-from-trumps-especially-on-iran-151987\">READ MORE: <\/a><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/joe-bidens-approach-to-the-middle-east-will-be-very-different-from-trumps-especially-on-iran-151987\">Joe Biden&#8217;s approach to the Middle East will be very different from Trump&#8217;s, especially on Iran<\/a><em><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Israeli military leaders are likewise <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/idf-chief-warns-iran-against-attack-says-retaliation-plans-already-drawn-up\/\">preparing for potential Iranian retaliation<\/a> over the November assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientist Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh \u2014 an act Tehran blames on the Jewish state.<\/p>\n<p>Both the US and Israel have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/iran-israel-fakhrizadeh-nuclear-assassination\/2020\/12\/23\/fca9e0fe-44e8-11eb-ac2a-3ac0f2b8ceeb_story.html\">reportedly deployed submarines<\/a> to the Persian Gulf in recent days, while the US has <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2020\/12\/30\/politics\/us-b52s-gulf-iran\/index.html\">flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers<\/a> to the region in a show of force.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The United States flew strategic bombers over the Persian Gulf twice in December in a show of force. Image: Air Force\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>And in another worrying sign, the acting US Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, announced over the weekend the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.military.com\/daily-news\/2021\/01\/03\/reversal-carrier-nimitz-ordered-stay-mideast-amid-iranian-threats-of-revenge.html\">US would not withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz<\/a> and its strike group from the Middle East \u2014 a swift reversal from the Pentagon\u2019s earlier decision to send the ship home.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Israel\u2019s priorities under a new US administration<\/strong><br \/>\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like nothing more than action by Iran that would draw in US forces before Trump leaves office this month and President-elect Joe Biden takes over. It would not only give him the opportunity to become a tough wartime leader, but also help to distract the media from his corruption charges.<\/p>\n<p>Any American military response against Iran would also make it much more difficult for Biden to establish a working relationship with Iran and <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2020\/12\/18\/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-jcpoa-sanctions-weapons-trump\/\">potentially resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s likely in any case the Biden administration will have less interest in getting much involved in the Middle East \u2014 this is not high on the list of priorities for the incoming administration.<\/p>\n<p>However, a restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement in return for the lifting of US sanctions would be welcomed by Washington\u2019s European allies.<\/p>\n<p>This suggests Israel could be left to run its own agenda in the Middle East during the Biden administration.<\/p>\n<p>Israel sees Iran as its major ongoing security threat because of its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/what-hezbollah\">support for Hezbollah in Lebanon<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-israel-khamenei-idUSKBN22Y10L\">Palestinian militants in Gaza<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>One of Israel\u2019s key strategic policies is also to prevent Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapon state. Israel is the only nuclear weapon power in the Middle East and is determined to keep it that way.<\/p>\n<p>While Iran claims its nuclear programme is only intended for peaceful purposes, Tehran probably believes realistically (like North Korea) that its national security can only be safeguarded by possession of a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<p>In recent days, Tehran <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/donald-trump-dubai-iran-iran-nuclear-united-arab-emirates-384717b592f8a7012b02d8627f36763a\">announced it would begin enriching uranium to 20 percent<\/a> as quickly as possible, exceeding the limits agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.<\/p>\n<p>This is a significant step and could prompt an Israeli strike on Iran\u2019s underground Fordo nuclear facility. Jerusalem <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/iran-resume-nuclear-uranium-enrichment-95e4ffb0-4982-4e7d-b18a-263d0931268e.html\">contemplated doing so nearly a decade ago<\/a> when Iran previously began enriching uranium to 20 percent.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/file-20210104-21-b5zw2w.jpg\" alt=\"Iran&#039;s Fordo nuclear facility\" width=\"600\" height=\"433\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A satellite photo shows construction at Iran\u2019s Fordo nuclear facility. Image: Maxar Technologies\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>How the Iran nuclear deal fell apart<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/20150713-timeline-history-iranian-nuclear-diplomacy\">Iran\u2019s nuclear programme began in the 1950s<\/a>, ironically with US assistance as part of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/up-front\/2013\/12\/18\/sixty-years-of-atoms-for-peace-and-irans-nuclear-program\/#:~:text=The%20Atoms%20for%20Peace%20program%20provided%20the%20foundations%20for%20Iran&%23039;s,key%20nuclear%20technology%20and%20education.&amp;text=In%201967%2C%20the%20United%20States,reactor%2C%20housed%20at%20the%20TRNC.\">\u201cAtoms for Peace\u201d programme<\/a>. Western cooperation continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution toppled the pro-Western shah of Iran. International nuclear cooperation with Iran was then suspended, but the Iranian programme resumed in the 1980s.<\/p>\n<p>After years of negotiations, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-33521655\">was signed in 2015<\/a> by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany (known as the P5+1), together with the European Union.<\/p>\n<p>The JCPOA tightly restricted Iran\u2019s nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions. However, this breakthrough soon fell apart with Trump\u2019s election.<em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In April 2018, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2018-05-01\/israel-netanyahu-says-iran-lied-about-nuclear-program\/9713346\">Netanyahu revealed Iranian nuclear programme documents<\/a> obtained by Mossad, claiming Iran had been maintaining a covert weapons program. The following month, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/08\/world\/middleeast\/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html\">announced the US withdrawal<\/a> from the JCPOA and a re-imposition of American sanctions.<\/p>\n<p>Iran initially said it would continue to abide by the nuclear deal, but after the Soleimani assassination last January, Tehran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/01\/05\/793814276\/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-limitations-in-wake-of-soleimani-killing\">abandoned its commitments<\/a>, including any restrictions on uranium enrichment.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/file-20210104-19-1ikeay8.jpg\" alt=\"Iranians burn US and Israel flags \" width=\"600\" height=\"386\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Iranians burn US and Israel flags during a funeral ceremony for Qassem Soleimani last year. Image: Abedin Taherkenareh\/EPA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Israel\u2019s history of preventive strikes<\/strong><br \/>\nIsrael, meanwhile, has long sought to disrupt its adversaries\u2019 nuclear programs through its \u201cpreventative strike\u201d policy, also known as the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/yale.universitypressscholarship.com\/view\/10.12987\/yale\/9780300162356.001.0001\/upso-9780300162356-chapter-16\">Begin Doctrine<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In 1981, Israeli aircraft <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1981\/06\/09\/world\/israeli-jets-destroy-iraqi-atomic-reactor-attack-condemned-us-arab-nations.html\">struck and destroyed<\/a> Iraq\u2019s atomic reactor at Osirak, believing it was being constructed for nuclear weapons purposes. And in 2007, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-43481803\">Israeli aircraft struck the al-Kibar nuclear facility<\/a> in Syria for the same reason.<\/p>\n<p>Starting in 2007, Mossad also apparently conducted an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/extremism-watch\/history-assassinations-irans-top-nuclear-scientists\">assassination program<\/a> to impede Iranian nuclear research. Between January 2010 and January 2012, Mossad is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/11\/06\/sunday-review\/the-secret-war-with-iran.html\">believed to have organised<\/a> the assassinations of four nuclear scientists in Iran. Another scientist was wounded in an attempted killing.<\/p>\n<p>Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the killings.<\/p>\n<p>Iran is suspected to have responded to the assassinations with an unsuccessful <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2013\/aug\/22\/thai-court-convicts-iranians-bomb-plot\">bomb attack against Israeli diplomats in Bangkok<\/a> in February 2012. The three Iranians convicted for that attack were the ones <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/politics\/federal\/kylie-moore-gilbert-detained-by-iran-over-baseless-israeli-spy-claims-20201126-p56i7f.html\">recently exchanged<\/a> for the release of Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert from an Iranian prison.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/file-20210104-19-98n1mc.jpg\" alt=\"Bomb suspect Mohammad Kharzei\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bomb suspect Mohammad Kharzei, one of the men released by Thailand in November in exchange for Kylie Moore-Gilbert. Image: Sakchai Lalit\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Mossad assassination programme was reportedly suspended under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/u-s-pressure-to-halt-hits-on-iran-scientists-1.5327888\">pressure from the Obama administration<\/a> to facilitate the Iran nuclear deal. But there seems little doubt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.co.uk\/article\/assassination-of-iran-nuclear-scientist-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-was-mossads-finest-work-grgr3kq6g\">the assassination of Fakhrizadeh was organised by Mossad<\/a> as part of its ongoing efforts to undermine the Iranian nuclear programme.<\/p>\n<p>Fakhrizadeh is believed to have been the driving force behind covert elements of Iran\u2019s nuclear programme for many decades.<\/p>\n<p>The timing of his killing was perfect from an Israeli perspective. It put the Iranian regime under domestic pressure to retaliate. If it did, however, it risked a military strike by the truculent outgoing Trump administration.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s fortunate Moore-Gilbert was whisked out of Iran just before the killing, as there is little likelihood Iran would have released a prisoner accused of spying for Israel (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/politics\/federal\/kylie-moore-gilbert-detained-by-iran-over-baseless-israeli-spy-claims-20201126-p56i7f.html\">even if such charges were baseless<\/a>) after such a blatant assassination had taken place in Iran.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s likely to happen next?<\/strong><br \/>\nWhere does all this leave us now? Much will depend on Iran\u2019s response to what it sees (with some justification) as Israeli and US provocation.<\/p>\n<p>The best outcome would be for no obvious Iranian retaliation or military action despite strong domestic pressure for the leadership to act forcefully. This would leave the door open for Biden to resume the nuclear deal, with US sanctions lifted under strict safeguards to ensure Iran is not able to maintain a covert weapons program.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important;margin: 0 !important;max-height: 1px !important;max-width: 1px !important;min-height: 1px !important;min-width: 1px !important;padding: 0 !important\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/152606\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><em>By<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/clive-williams-1192936\"><em>Dr Clive Williams<\/em><\/a><em>, Campus visitor, ANU Centre for Military and Security Law, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em>. <em>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons licence. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/are-the-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office-152606\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"syndicated-attribution\">This post was originally published on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.radiofree.org\/2021\/01\/04\/are-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office\/\">Radio Free<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ANALYSIS: By Clive Williams, Australian National University Tensions are running high in the Middle East in the waning days of the Trump administration. Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":400,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[441,80,49,5,1224,1210,365,25,82,51,10,4,1225,33,1082,14,1226,84,417,1227],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/400"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4840"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4840\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4841,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4840\/revisions\/4841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}