{"id":707663,"date":"2022-06-20T03:33:18","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T03:33:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asiapacificreport.nz\/?p=75382"},"modified":"2022-06-20T03:33:18","modified_gmt":"2022-06-20T03:33:18","slug":"geoffrey-miller-tale-of-two-summits-why-jacinda-ardern-said-no-to-the-commonwealth-but-yes-to-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2022\/06\/20\/geoffrey-miller-tale-of-two-summits-why-jacinda-ardern-said-no-to-the-commonwealth-but-yes-to-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Geoffrey Miller: Tale of two summits \u2013 why Jacinda Ardern said no to the Commonwealth, but yes to NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>ANALYSIS:<\/strong> <em>By Geoffrey Miller of <a href=\"https:\/\/democracyproject.nz\/\">The Democracy Project<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Jacinda Ardern\u2019s decision to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/national\/469340\/jacinda-ardern-first-new-zealander-to-be-invited-to-speak-at-nato-leaders-summit\">attend<\/a> the upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Spain &#8212; but to skip the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda &#8212; symbolises the changes she is making to New Zealand foreign policy.<\/p>\n<p>The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (<a href=\"https:\/\/thecommonwealth.org\/chogm\">CHOGM<\/a>) starts today in Kigali, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/news_196144.htm\">NATO summit<\/a> will be held in Madrid next week.<\/p>\n<p>However, Jacinda Ardern is only attending the NATO summit. She is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.beehive.govt.nz\/release\/foreign-minister-attend-chogm\">sending<\/a> her Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, to attend the Commonwealth meeting in her place.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/asiapacificreport.nz\/?s=China+in+Pacific\"><strong>READ MORE:<\/strong> Other articles on China in the Pacific<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ardern is hardly alone with her decision to stay away from CHOGM &#8212; so far, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ktpress.rw\/2022\/06\/chogm-2022-35-heads-of-state-expected\/\">only 35<\/a> of 54 Commonwealth leaders have sent an RSVP. New Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be among the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/where-are-you-albo-australia-and-chogm-2022\/\">absentees<\/a> &#8212; deputy Prime Minister (and defence minister) Richard Marles will go instead.<\/p>\n<p>This is despite the fact that this year\u2019s CHOGM is being held during the Queen\u2019s Platinum Jubilee year and just over a month before the Commonwealth Games &#8212; the grouping\u2019s sporting flagship.<\/p>\n<p>The summit will also be the first CHOGM since 2018, the first CHOGM in Africa since 2007 and the first to be hosted by a &#8220;new&#8221; Commonwealth member &#8212; Rwanda was never a British colony, but voluntarily <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/20091129-rwanda-becomes-only-second-member-without-british-colonial-past\">joined<\/a> the Commonwealth in 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Rwanda\u2019s hosting of the summit this year is not without controversy. Freedom House, a US-based think tank, <a href=\"https:\/\/freedomhouse.org\/country\/rwanda\/freedom-world\/2022\">calls<\/a> the country \u2018not free\u2019, with a ranking of just 22 points out of 100 &#8212; placing it firmly in the bottom third of its global rankings, two places ahead of Russia.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018Pervasive intimidation, torture&#8217;<\/strong><br \/>\nFreedom House says the Rwandan regime &#8212; led by authoritarian President Paul Kagame &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/freedomhouse.org\/country\/rwanda\/freedom-world\/2022\">undertakes<\/a> \u2018pervasive surveillance, intimidation, torture, and renditions or suspected assassinations of exiled dissidents.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s CHOGM also threatens to be overshadowed by a UK plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. Prince Charles, who reportedly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2022\/jun\/10\/prince-charles-criticises-appalling-rwanda-scheme-reports\">called<\/a> the deal \u2018appalling\u2019, will be representing the Queen at the summit in Kigali.<\/p>\n<p>Despite these two red flags, prominent human rights organisations are not calling for a boycott of the event. Rather, they want Commonwealth leaders to draw attention to the problems. Human Rights Watch, for instance, has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2022\/06\/10\/call-commonwealth-leaders-speak-rights-rwandans\">asked<\/a> leaders to voice their &#8220;grave concern to the [Rwandan] government on its human rights record&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>And, in reference to the UK-Rwanda asylum-seeker deal, Amnesty International <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org.uk\/press-releases\/rwanda-commonwealth-leaders-must-call-uk-end-cruel-and-racist-refugee-deal\">wants<\/a> Commonwealth members to \u2018seize the opportunity in Kigali to denounce this inhumane arrangement\u2019.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">&#8216;Jacinda Ardern\u2019s invitation to attend the NATO\u2019s 2022 Madrid Summit will also be something of a reward for aligning New Zealand\u2019s foreign policy more closely with NATO \u2013 and the West generally \u2013 over the past few months&#8217; &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GeoffMillerNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@GeoffMillerNZ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hgkbfp8jO0\">https:\/\/t.co\/hgkbfp8jO0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Democracy Project (@Dem_Project) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Dem_Project\/status\/1538601546145234944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 19, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Jacinda Ardern\u2019s no-show at CHOGM is probably driven partly by domestic political considerations and timing. This Friday\u2019s inaugural &#8220;Matariki&#8221; public holiday, which marks the M\u0101ori New Year, was a key election campaign pledge by Ardern\u2019s Labour Party in 2020 &#8212; and the Prime Minister is scheduled to attend a pre-dawn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tepapa.govt.nz\/about\/press-and-media\/press-releases\/2022-media-releases\/te-papa-hosts-official-launch-matariki\">ceremony<\/a> on the day.<\/p>\n<p>Outside of the Commonwealth Games, the Commonwealth has a low profile &#8212; but it has a lot going for it. Few intergovernmental organisations can rival it for size &#8212; with the Commonwealth\u2019s collective population reaching <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-43715079\">2.6 billion<\/a>, only the likes of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the United Nations (UN) represent more people.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Strength in representing small states<\/strong><br \/>\nMoreover, the Commonwealth has a particular <a href=\"https:\/\/thecommonwealth.org\/press-release\/commonwealth-needs-be-loud-voice-action-climate-prime-minister-bahamas\">strength<\/a> in representing small states, especially island ones &#8212; 25 of the 54 members are classified as Small Island Developing States. This means the Commonwealth can be a particularly useful forum for discussing climate change and environmental issues.<\/p>\n<p>The results have included initiatives such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cefas.co.uk\/clip\/\">Commonwealth Litter Programme<\/a>, which has made real differences to countries such as Vanuatu in fighting plastic pollution.<\/p>\n<p>The Commonwealth is more than just a talking shop, but the disparate nature of its membership is a major challenge. The Commonwealth includes wealthy, democratic countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the UK &#8212; but also poor, authoritarian ones such as Cameroon, Rwanda and Uganda.<\/p>\n<p>In between, there are also some rich authoritarian members (such as Brunei) and less well-off democracies (such as India)<\/p>\n<p>Of course, there is still great value in an organisation that brings opposing sides together for a robust exchange of views &#8212; the new geopolitical faultline between the Global South and North over Ukraine is a case in point. While Western countries &#8212; including New Zealand &#8212; have provided strong support to Ukraine, most non-Western countries have not followed suit.<\/p>\n<p>It would do Jacinda Ardern good to listen to the rationale that countries such as South Africa and Mozambique might have for not falling in line with the Western position. Countries perhaps learn best when they are not just surrounded by their like-minded friends.<\/p>\n<p>However, in the new Cold War, ideology is back with a vengeance &#8212; and many countries are drifting away from pragmatic, inclusive groupings towards more ideologically-driven ones.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Countering Chinese influence<\/strong><br \/>\nFor Australia, this means countering Chinese influence with the reinvigorated &#8220;Quad&#8221; arrangement (with India, Japan and the US) and AUKUS (with the United Kingdom and the United States); for New Zealand, the Pacific Islands Forum and bilateral meetings with Australia and the United States have taken on greater significance.<\/p>\n<p>All of this explains why Jacinda Ardern has accepted an invitation to attend NATO\u2019s Madrid Summit next week. Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance\u2019s Secretary General, has recently been at pains to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_196621.htm?selectedLocale=en\">highlight<\/a> the invitation to the bloc\u2019s &#8220;Asia-Pacific partners&#8221; \u2013 Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.<\/p>\n<p>The reason is obvious \u2013 on Thursday, Stoltenberg specifically <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_196623.htm?selectedLocale=en\">mentioned<\/a> China as one of the priorities for the meeting, which will set out a new &#8220;Strategic Concept&#8221; &#8212; effectively a blueprint for the future of NATO.<\/p>\n<p>And while NATO\u2019s main focus will remain on security in Europe, last year\u2019s summit in Brussels &#8212; held well before Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine &#8212; was noteworthy for making China its main priority.<\/p>\n<p>The summit\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/news_185000.htm\">communique<\/a> made NATO\u2019s position crystal-clear: &#8220;China\u2019s stated ambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Jacinda Ardern\u2019s invitation to attend the NATO\u2019s 2022 Madrid Summit will also be something of a reward for aligning New Zealand\u2019s foreign policy more closely with NATO &#8212; and the West generally &#8212; over the past few months.<\/p>\n<p>After all, Ardern has overhauled New Zealand\u2019s foreign policy by introducing sanctions against Russia and sending military equipment and weapons to Ukraine &#8212; and by making a symbolic contribution of New Zealand troops to Europe to assist with the war effort.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Security &#8216;not for free&#8217;<\/strong><br \/>\nBut as Stoltenberg likes to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_196623.htm?selectedLocale=en\">say<\/a>, security &#8220;does not come for free&#8221; &#8212; and the meeting will undoubtedly also serve as an opportunity to put pressure on New Zealand to provide even more assistance. The NATO Secretary-General recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_196623.htm?selectedLocale=en\">pointed out<\/a> that there have been &#8220;seven consecutive years of rising defence investment across Europe and Canada&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>New Zealand\u2019s military spending shows a remarkably similar trajectory, with <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/new-zealand\/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html\">spending<\/a> now at the 1.5% of GDP level\u2013 up from 1.1% in 2015, although still well below NATO\u2019s target of 2%.<\/p>\n<p>Like Jacinda Ardern, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also be a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/opinions_196623.htm?selectedLocale=en\">guest<\/a> of honour at the NATO summit. Anthony Albanese is also travelling to Madrid &#8212; and Zelensky has already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/politics\/federal\/albanese-to-attend-nato-summit-invited-to-visit-ukraine-20220616-p5audo.html\">invited<\/a> the Australian PM to visit Kyiv.<\/p>\n<p>If he accepts, Albanese would be following in the footsteps of many other NATO country leaders who have travelled to Ukraine in recent weeks, including the UK\u2019s Boris Johnson, France\u2019s Emmanuel Macron and Germany\u2019s Olaf Scholz.<\/p>\n<p>And given the focus on Western unity and solidarity in recent months, there is every chance Jacinda Ardern would travel together with Anthony Albanese on any European side-trip to Ukraine &#8212; on a joint ANZAC solidarity mission.<\/p>\n<p>Ardern is backing NATO over CHOGM.<\/p>\n<p>She might be choosing Kyiv over Kigali.<\/p>\n<p><em>Geoffrey Miller is an international analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues for Victoria University of Wellington&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/democracyproject.nz\/\">Democracy Project<\/a>. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. This article is republished under a Creative Commons licence.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"syndicated-attribution\">This post was originally published on <a href=\"https:\/\/asiapacificreport.nz\/2022\/06\/20\/geoffrey-miller-tale-of-two-summits-why-jacinda-ardern-said-no-to-the-commonwealth-but-yes-to-nato\/\">Asia Pacific Report<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ANALYSIS: By Geoffrey Miller of The Democracy Project Jacinda Ardern\u2019s decision to attend the upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Spain \u2014 but to skip the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda \u2014 symbolises the changes she is making to New Zealand foreign policy. The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":400,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[441,1757,231,50168,1300,432,3153,5,36804,365,6,8342,118,10,712,255,33,2962,12,14,12453,3254,417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707663"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/400"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=707663"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":707664,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707663\/revisions\/707664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=707663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=707663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=707663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}