{"id":839822,"date":"2022-10-13T23:22:12","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T23:22:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asiapacificreport.nz\/?p=79891"},"modified":"2022-10-13T23:22:12","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T23:22:12","slug":"women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/2022\/10\/13\/women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Women-led protests in Iran gather momentum \u2013 but will they be enough to bring about\u00a0change?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>ANALYSIS:<\/strong> <em>By <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/tony-walker-313396\">Tony Walker<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/la-trobe-university-842\">La Trobe University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>As protests in Iran drag on into their fourth week over the violent death in custody of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/irans-protests-are-the-first-counterrevolution-led-by-women\">Mahsa Amini<\/a>, a young Kurdish woman, there are two central questions.<\/p>\n<p>The first is whether these protests involving women and girls across Iran are different from upheavals in the past, or will simply end the same way with the regime stifling a popular uprising.<\/p>\n<p>The second question is what can, and should, the outside world do about extraordinarily brave demonstrations against an ageing and ruthless regime that has shown itself to be unwilling, and possibly unable, to allow greater freedoms?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-iran-nuclear-talks-are-resuming-but-is-there-any-trust-left-to-strike-a-deal-171937\">READ MORE: <\/a><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-iran-nuclear-talks-are-resuming-but-is-there-any-trust-left-to-strike-a-deal-171937\">The Iran nuclear talks are resuming, but is there any trust left to strike a deal?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/3-ways-these-latest-iran-demonstrations-are-different-to-past-protests-191418\">3 ways these latest Iran demonstrations are different to past protests<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The symbolic issue for Iran\u2019s protest movement is a requirement, imposed by morality police, that women and girls wear the hijab, or headscarf. In reality, these protests are the result of a much wider revolt against discrimination and prejudice.<\/p>\n<p>Put simply, women are fed up with a regime that has sought to impose rigid rules on what is, and is not, permissible for women in a theocratic society whose guidelines are little changed since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979.<\/p>\n<p>Women are serving multi-year jail sentences for simply refusing to wear the hijab.<\/p>\n<p>Two other issues are also at play. One is the economic deprivation suffered by Iranians under the weight of persistent sanctions, rampant inflation and the continuing catastrophic decline in the value of the Iranian riyal.<\/p>\n<p>The other issue is the fact Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old whose death sparked the protests, was a Kurd.<\/p>\n<p>The Kurds, who constitute about 10 percent of Iran\u2019s 84 million population, feel themselves to be a persecuted minority. Tensions between the central government in Tehran and Kurds in their homeland on the boundaries of Iraq, Syria and Turkey are endemic.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/EZMvrkU_eEY?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<em>A BBC report\u00a0 on the Mahsa Amini protests.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Another important question is where all this leaves negotiations on the revival of the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action\">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> (JCPOA). The JCPOA had been aimed at freezing Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons ambitions.<\/p>\n<p>Former President Donald Trump recklessly abandoned the 2015 agreement in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>The Biden administration, along with its United Nations Security Council partners plus Germany, had been making progress in those negotiations, but those efforts are now stalled, if not frozen.<\/p>\n<p>The spectacle of Iranian security forces violently putting down demonstrations in cities, towns and villages across Iran will make it virtually impossible in the short term for the US and its negotiating partners to negotiate a revised JCPOA with Tehran.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s use of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/russias-use-of-iranian-kamikaze-drones-creates-new-dangers-for-ukrainian-troops-11663415140\">Iranian-supplied \u201ckamikaze\u201d drones<\/a> against Ukrainian targets will have further soured the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How will the US and its allies respond?<br \/>\n<\/strong>So will the US and its allies continue to tighten Iranian sanctions? And to what extent will the West seek to encourage and support protesters on the ground in Iran?<\/p>\n<p>One initiative that is already underway is helping the protest movement to circumvent regime attempts to shut down electronic communications.<\/p>\n<p>Elon Musk <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/musk-says-activating-starlink-response-blinken-internet-freedom-iran-2022-09-23\/\">has announced<\/a> he is activating his Starlink satellites to provide a vehicle for social media communications in Iran. Musk did the same thing in Ukraine to get around Russian attempts to shut down Ukrainian communications by taking out a European satellite system.<\/p>\n<p>However, amid the spectacle of women and girls being shot and tear-gassed on Iranian streets, the moral dilemma for the outside world is this: how far the West is prepared to go in its backing for the protesters.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=499&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=499&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489300\/original\/file-20221012-14-inn17m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=499&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"There have also been pro-government Iranian rallies in response\" width=\"600\" height=\"397\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Since the Iranian protests began there have also been pro-government rallies in response. Image: Abedin Taherkenareh\/EPA\/AAP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It is one thing to express sympathy; it is another to take concrete steps to support the widespread agitation. This was also the conundrum during the Arab Spring of 2010 that brought down regimes in US-friendly countries like Egypt and Tunisia.<\/p>\n<p>It should not be forgotten, in light of contemporary events, that Iran and Russia propped up Syria\u2019s Assad regime during the Arab Spring, saving it from a near certain end.<\/p>\n<p>In this latest period, the Middle East may not be on fire, as it was a decade or so ago, but it remains highly unstable. Iran\u2019s neighbour, Iraq, is effectively without a government after months of violent agitation.<\/p>\n<p>The war in Yemen is threatening to spark up again, adding to uncertainties in the Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>In a geopolitical sense, Washington has to reckon with inroads Moscow has been making in relations with Gulf States, including, notably Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n<p>The recent OPEC Plus decision to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2022\/10\/06\/opec-production-cut-recession-europe\/\">limit oil production<\/a> constituted a slap to the US ahead of the mid-term elections in which fuel prices will be a potent issue.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, Washington\u2019s ability to influence events in the Middle East is eroding, partly as a consequence of a disastrous attempt to remake the region by going to war in Iraq in 2003.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/489297\/original\/file-20221012-12-dh8fn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"The US\u2019s ability to influence the Middle East now much weaker\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The US\u2019s ability to influence the Middle East is much weaker than before it went to war in Iraq in 2003. Image: Susan Walsh\/AP\/AAP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>A volatile region<\/strong><br \/>\nAmong the consequences of that misjudgement is the empowerment of Iran in conjunction with a Shia majority in Iraq. This should have been foreseen.<\/p>\n<p>So quite apart from the waves of protest in Iran, the region is a tinderbox with multiple unresolved conflicts.<\/p>\n<p>In Afghanistan, on the fringes of the Middle East, women protesters have taken the lead in recent days from their Iranian sisters and have been protesting against conservative dress codes and limitations on access to education under the Taliban.<\/p>\n<p>This returns us to the moral issue of the extent to which the outside world should support the protests. In this, the experience of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2009\/jun\/14\/iran-tehran-election-results-riots\">\u201cgreen\u201d rebellion of 2009<\/a> on Iran\u2019s streets is relevant.<\/p>\n<p>Then, the Obama administration, after initially giving encouragement to the demonstrations, pulled back on the grounds it did not wish to jeopardise negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran or undermine the protests by attaching US support.<\/p>\n<p>Officials involved in the administration, who are now back in the Biden White House, believe that approach was a mistake. However, that begs the question as to what practically the US and its allies can do to stop Iran\u2019s assault on its own women and girls.<\/p>\n<p>What if, as a consequence of Western encouragement to the demonstrators, many hundreds more die or are incarcerated?<\/p>\n<p>What is the end result, beyond indulging in the usual rhetorical exercises such as expressing \u201cconcern\u201d and threatening to ramp up sanctions that hurt individual Iranians more than the regime itself?<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line is that irrespective of what might be the desired outcome, Iran\u2019s regime is unlikely to crumble.<\/p>\n<p>It might be shaken, it might entertain concerns that its own revolution that replaced the Shah is in danger of being replicated, but it would be na\u00efve to believe that a rotting 43-year-old edifice would be anything but utterly ruthless in putting an end to the demonstrations.<\/p>\n<p>This includes unrest in the oil industry, in which workers are expressing solidarity with the demonstrators. The oil worker protest will be concerning the regime, given the centrality of oil production to Iran\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n<p>However, a powerful women\u2019s movement has been unleashed in Iran. Over time, this movement may well force a theocratic regime to loosen restrictions on women and their participation in the political life of the country. That is the hope, but as history has shown, a ruthless regime will stop at little to re-assert its control.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/192165\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><em>Dr <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/tony-walker-313396\">Tony Walker<\/a> is a vice-chancellor&#8217;s fellow, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/la-trobe-university-842\">La Trobe University<\/a><\/em>. This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons licence. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change-192165\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"syndicated-attribution\">This post was originally published on <a href=\"https:\/\/asiapacificreport.nz\/2022\/10\/14\/women-led-protests-in-iran-gather-momentum-but-will-they-be-enough-to-bring-about-change\/\">Asia Pacific Report<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ANALYSIS: By Tony Walker, La Trobe University As protests in Iran drag on into their fourth week over the violent death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, there are two central questions. The first is whether these protests involving women and girls across Iran are different from upheavals in the past, or<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":400,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[186,35198,441,7940,789,10598,975,365,25,53473,192,6667,17970,52902,273,20180,345,4840,2862,417,51244,196,1320,631],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839822"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/400"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=839822"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":839823,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839822\/revisions\/839823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=839822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=839822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=839822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}