The Biden administration continues to engage in that favourite activity White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki can only describe as \u201ccircling back\u201d.\u00a0 And much circling is taking place in the context of Afghanistan.<\/p>\n
The cupboard of calamities is well stocked, with the US facing an emboldened Taliban keen to hold Washington to its word in withdrawing the last troops by May 1.\u00a0 In doing so, there is little chance that the US sponsored government in Kabul would survive.\u00a0 But dithering past the date will also be an open invitation to resume hostilities in earnest.<\/p>\n
As things stand with the Afghanistan Peace Agreement, the Taliban have every reason to chortle.\u00a0 \u201cThere is little sign that this particular peace process,\u201d opines<\/a> Kate Clark of the Afghan Analysts Network, \u201chas blunted the Taliban\u2019s eagerness, in any way, to pursue war.\u201d\u00a0 Not only have they been brought into any future power sharing arrangements with Kabul; they are also entertaining a new constitution with a good dose of Islamic policing.\u00a0 A powerful Islamic Jurisprudence Council with veto powers over laws is contemplated.\u00a0 All of this comes with the departure of US troops provided the Taliban prevent Al Qaeda and other designated terrorist groups from operating within the country\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n Cadres of the security establishment in Washington are worried at easing the imperial footprint.\u00a0 Left with few options, the Biden administration has resorted to delaying tactics, hoping for the creation of an interim power-sharing government that would lead to a more comprehensive peace settlement.<\/p>\n Policy wonks are not impressed.\u00a0 Madiha Afzal and Michael E. O\u2019Hanlon of the Brookings Institute take a withering view<\/a> of the Taliban: they are not to be trusted on any reduction in violence or constructive power sharing.\u00a0 The only question for them is whether US forces remain, or leave.\u00a0 As with previous justifications for keeping up the pretence for foolish, bloody and failed interventions, the argument is a familiar hoary old chestnut: to extricate yourself from the nightmare would see the perpetration of a bigger one.\u00a0 \u201cAs difficult as it is to remain in this longest war, the most likely outcome of pulling out of Afghanistan would be very, very ugly, including ethnic cleansing, mass slaughter and the ultimate dismemberment of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n Afzal and O\u2019Hanlon acknowledges the bill to be considerable, though they do so with cool regret: the cost to the US taxpayer could be up to $10 billion annually; 10 to 20 casualties would also be added to the accounts \u201cif the Taliban resumes its previous use of force against US forces.\u201d\u00a0 Not taking up the burden would encourage the troops of other countries to leave while seeing conflict move to the cities, \u201cwhich have generally remained under government control throughout the past two decades.\u201d<\/p>\n With the interim government plan taking shape, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has decided to further baffle allies in Kabul.\u00a0 In a letter to Afghanistan\u2019s President Ashraf Ghani seen by TOLOnews, Blinken states<\/a> that, \u201cAlthough we have not yet completed our review of the way ahead, we have reached an initial conclusion that the best way to advance our shared interests is to do all we can to accelerate peace talks and to bring all parties into compliance with their commitments.\u201d<\/p>\n To this waffle, Blinken has a suggestion: \u201cpursuing a high-level diplomatic effort with the parties and with regional countries and the United Nations.\u201d\u00a0 The Foreign Ministers of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the United States should be convened by the UN. Written proposals to the Taliban and Ghani are also promised \u201caimed at accelerating discussions on a negotiated settlement and ceasefire.\u201d While they are not meant to \u201cdictate terms to the parties,\u201d the Afghans have every reason to assume the opposite, given that they involve \u201cfoundational principles that will guide Afghanistan\u2019s future constitutional and governing arrangements\u201d, \u201ca new inclusive government\u201d and \u201cterms of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.\u201d<\/p>\n Then comes the insertion of Turkey, which would have come as a delight to President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, busily shredding the remnants of liberal democracy in his country.\u00a0 Senior-level meetings of both sides would take place in Turkey \u201cin the coming weeks to finalize a peace agreement.\u201d\u00a0 Hardly a vote of confidence for supporters of constitutional strength and sobriety, and striking coming from an individual who enjoys berating<\/a> states such as China for their human rights blemishes.<\/p>\n The rest of Blinken\u2019s points resemble a counselling session: a revised proposal for a Reduction-in-Violence strategy that will take 90 days; the need for all Afghan leaders to remain united and, in doing so, \u201cbuild consensus on specific goals and objectives for a negotiation with the Taliban about governance, power-sharing, and essential supporting principles\u201d.\u00a0 Blinken then falls into that unfortunate habit prevalent in the advertising school of thought in US foreign policy.\u00a0 Tactics and \u201cpublic messaging that will demonstrate unity of effort and purpose\u201d should be pursued.\u00a0 Public relations should do it.<\/p>\n The tone of the note, with its Quiet American theme, did not impress various Afghan advocates.\u00a0 Kabul-based lawyer Kawun Kakar found<\/a> the \u201cprescriptive nature and context of the letter disturbing.\u201d\u00a0 He acknowledged that the US was \u201cfrustrated by the \u2018endless war\u2019\u201d and the lengthy talks in Doha but imposing \u201ccomplicated substantive\u201d and \u201cprocedural conditions\u201d and \u201cdeadlines do not seem realistic.\u201d\u00a0 The parties, as things stood, were simply too far apart to guarantee any durable peace, while letting in other major powers into an already messy picture was ill-considered.<\/p>\n Vice President Amrullah Saleh did little<\/a> to hide his dissatisfaction.\u00a0 \u201cThey [the Americans] have the right to decide on 2,500 US soldiers and sign deals with the Taliban as they please.\u00a0 But it is also our right to make decisions about 35 million people of Afghanistan not based on anyone else\u2019s calendar.\u201d<\/p>\n Biden\u2019s Afghanistan policy risks fouling up even before anything solid is minted. \u201cUS forces will stay,\u201d worries<\/a> Eli Lake, \u201crisking a new round of attacks from the Taliban.\u00a0 But they will not stay long, depriving the US of its already dwindling leverage to force the Taliban to adhere to the 2020 deal.\u201d\u00a0 The worst of all worlds.<\/p>The post Confused in Afghanistan: The Biden Administration\u2019s Latest Trick<\/a> first appeared on Dissident Voice<\/a>.\n This post was originally published on Dissident Voice<\/a>. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Biden administration continues to engage in that favourite activity White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki can only describe as \u201ccircling back\u201d.\u00a0 And much circling is taking place in the context of Afghanistan. The cupboard of calamities is well stocked, with the US facing an emboldened Taliban keen to hold Washington to its word in [\u2026]<\/p>\n The post Confused in Afghanistan: The Biden Administration\u2019s Latest Trick<\/a> first appeared on Dissident Voice<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[186,49,51,582,4731],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90651"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90651"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90652,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90651\/revisions\/90652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiofree.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}