Trump’s contribution
As a consequence, in late-2017, the Trump Administration launched secret talks between the two countries’ presidents, Aleksandar Vučić and Hashim Thaçi, which focused on the question of what Vučić needed to sell an agreement on independence to the Serb people. In August 2018, reports emerged that Vučić had asked for a Serb-populated enclave in northern Kosovo and a clear EU perspective for Serbia.
That was sufficient for Thaçi who accepted the loss of the northern enclave, which Pristina did not fully control anyway, in return for recognition. As a consequence, Kosovo would be able to legalise its independence, end the uncertainty over its future, join international institutions such as the UN, the EU and NATO, and begin to develop politically and economically. When the two presidents agreed to proceed on this basis, the Trump Administration also agreed.
However, the idea of partition collapsed on contact with the outside world. In Kosovo, a majority of voters rejected the idea of sacrificing territory in return for something Serbia should grant unconditionally. So too did most of Kosovo’s politicians, leading to Thaçi’s marginalisation and the government, under Haradinaj, taking control of Kosovo’s relations with Belgrade by imposing punishing tariffs on Serbian imports.
At the international level, Germany also rejected the idea of partition for fear of setting a destabilising precedent for the fragile states of Bosnia and North Macedonia given its basic dislike of redrawing borders along ethnic lines. This had two main effects: to tell the Kosovo Albanians there was no international consensus on the issue of partition; and to leave Vučić without territorial compensation and just an EU perspective to offer the Serbian public in return for ceding Kosovo.
That in itself was probably enough to end any chance of a deal. However, in 2019, France and others imposed an effective moratorium on any future enlargement of the EU and, with it, the effective end of Serbia’s chances of joining the union. In July, Emmanuel Macron took the message to Belgrade that the EU could not expand without a prior process of institutional reform and in December, he suspended the opening of any new negotiating chapters with Serbia, asking, ‘does it improve life in Serbia? I would say – no’.
In March last year, with presidential elections looming, the US decided to make a final push at an agreement by toppling the government in Kosovo, installing a more pliant partner and restarting the stalled dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. However, with partition now off the table, the EU enlargement process in abeyance and Serbia lacking any obvious reason to recognise Kosovo, the opportunity for a deal on its independence had passed.
That became clear when Serbia and Kosovo signed an agreement at the White House in September which, while big on presentation, was devoid of any real content, comprising just a few provisions on cross-border transportation, far short of the original objective of an agreement on Kosovo’s independence. Subsequently, Vučić said he would not recognise Kosovo for as long as he remained president, a position which suits most Serbs who want to freeze the Kosovo question.
Kosovo’s narrowing options
This has major implications for Kosovo where the option of independence is now closed for the foreseeable future, thereby narrowing Pristina’s strategic choices to just two. One is to maintain the status quo in the hope that something eventually shifts Serbia’s position, such as massive political sanctions on Belgrade by the Americans. However, this option is complicated because there is no realistic prospect of the US applying any such pressure; and, for as long as Kosovo’s status remains unclear, it will fail to develop politically and economically.
The second option is unification of some kind with neighbouring Albania, which offers an alternative route out of Kosovo’s current predicament. Not only would it consolidate Kosovo’s separation from Serbia and secure Albania’s protection; but unification would also give Kosovo access to the outside world. Kosovans could travel on Albanian passports; trade internationally on Albanian terms; and represent Albania abroad, whether at the UN or in sports contests. In short, Kosovo could more or less normalise its international position without, as Haradinaj emphasised, ‘the approval of Serbia’.
This is not a new idea. The goal of national unification is widely discussed and has strong support among the people living in Albania and Kosovo who see themselves as part of a single Albanian nation. One poll from 2019 found 64% of Albanians in Kosovo and 75% of Albanians in Albania would vote in favour of national unification in any referendum on the matter.
The idea also has support among political leaders in both Albania and Kosovo who have made various public statements in support of national unification over the last decade: for Albania’s prime minister, Edi Rama, a common state is ‘inevitable and unquestionable’. Albania and Kosovo have also signed various agreements aimed at integrating the two, including plans for a customs union, a common foreign policy and shared embassies.
However, there has been little practical integration until now, for two reasons. In Kosovo, the Albanian population has been focused overwhelmingly on trying to establish full independence from Serbia which has been their core political goal since 1990. That does not exclude unification of some kind with Albania in the longer term, but this has been seen as a secondary goal, once Kosovo has finally broken free.
Meanwhile, Albania has been focused overwhelmingly on trying to join the EU, which does not accept the idea of Albanian national unification, meaning Tirana has not pushed the issue. Instead, it has pursued the idea of Albanian unification within an internally borderless EU, which is a safer and less complicated option, on the assumption both Albania and Kosovo eventually join the union.
In this context, speculation by political leaders about the unification of Albania and Kosovo until now has tended to be contingent: ‘if we can’t unite within the EU, we will have to unite outside of it’. Even Haradinaj’s recent statement made clear his preference for a ‘Euro-Atlantic Kosovo, a part of the EU and NATO’ and that a referendum would follow if this failed to happen.
However, these factors no longer apply. Kosovo cannot gain recognition from Serbia, foreclosing the option of independence, and Albania’s plan of joining the EU is practically over for as long as France and others block any further enlargement. Accordingly, whoever ends up ruling Kosovo after the upcoming elections, will have little choice but to work towards Kosovo’s integration with Albania as the only way to end the territory’s state of limbo.
Meanwhile, Albania will have little to lose from the Europeans from pursuing a merger with Kosovo. Instead, it will see that Kosovo needs a way out of its malaise, that independence is impossible and that, to uphold the welfare of its compatriots across the border, Albania will have to press ahead and integrate Kosovo. In short, events have now conspired to unblock the dormant unification process.
This post was originally published on Radio Free.
