While millions of Australians feel the pinch of the cost of living crisis, the latest economic growth numbers from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirms economy is doing alright vis-a-vis its global peers. Alan Austin reports.
The ABS numbers on GDP this week confirm that Australia’s Government appears to have been pulling the right economic levers at the right time.
Annual economic growth is now 1.55%, inflation is 3.40%, the jobless rate is 4.06%, and youth unemployment is 9.5%. These follow Treasury posting a healthy surplus last financial year of A$22.1B and all three global credit agencies affirming that Australia warrants triple A ratings.
Inflation recovery
Currently, the United Kingdom, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Mexico, Austria and Estonia all have inflation above 4%; Iceland and Colombia are above 6%, and Turkey is above 60%. Argentina is the highest at 254%, China is -0.8%.
The ABS shows inflation to December 2023 in Australia was 3.38%, down from 8.44% one year earlier.
In just twelve months, inflation was cut by 5.06 percentage points.
The last time inflation was slashed by more than five per cent in one year was back in December 1991 when freshly-elected PM Paul Keating bragged that he had finally “snapped the inflation stick”.
The other significant inflation measure is the reduction from 6.12% in May 2022, when the Albanese Government was elected, to just 3.40% in January. That is among the best outcomes in the Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD), the group of 38 advanced democracies.
Yes, it is true most Australians today would like more spending money. But when was it ever otherwise? Is this still a “crisis?”
Global comparisons
Within the OECD, there are four exclusive clubs. The first is the group of nations with overall jobless rates below 4.5% and youth unemployment below 10%. This club has ten proud members: Australia, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland and the USA.
The second clique is those with inflation below 4% and positive wage growth. This group boasts 18 economies, including most of those in the above list, plus several more.
The third club comprises the stable growth economies, which recorded increases in gross domestic product (GDP) in every quarter of 2023 and positive annual growth for the year. There are just eight of these: Belgium, Mexico, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Costa Rica, the USA and Australia.
The fourth, even more select, is the clique of just five well-financed economies that have AAA credit ratings with all three global agencies and delivered budget surpluses in 2023: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Australia.
Only one economy is a member of all four exclusive clubs – Australia. Switzerland is nearest but copped negative GDP growth in last year’s second quarter and ended the year with annual GDP growth below one per cent. South Korea, the USA and Mexico are also travelling well on most indicators but do not have triple-A credit ratings and are in deep deficit.
Looking beyond the OECD, only one other economy in the world comes close. Singapore has the top credit ratings, low inflation and low unemployment, but last year GDP went backwards in the first quarter, and it recorded a fairly deep budget deficit.
The mainstream media story
With Australia having the world’s standout economy based on measurable outcomes, you would think newspaper editorials and television analysis would be congratulatory, and the Opposition would be visibly supportive – and claiming credit for its constructive bipartisan participation in legislating such impressive reforms. You would be wrong.
Last Sunday’s Insiders on ABC TV focused primarily on analysis of the by-election outcome in Dunkley in Victoria’s south-eastern bayside suburbs.
MWM counted the following comments from the ‘experts’ on the Insiders panel and on video clips aired:
“people are really struggling”: 5
“experiencing a cost of living crisis”: 12
“troubling interest rate rises”: 4
“People are disgruntled”: 3
“Holding the Government to account”: 4
Hoping for some balance, we found none of the following positive observations:
“The Government has cut inflation from 6.1% when it took office to just 3.4% today.”
“Australia’s recent cost of living reduction is among the world’s best.”
“The Government has managed the economy relatively well.”
“Australia is back among the global leaders on most economic outcomes.”
The only positive comment on the economy was Patricia Karvelas’ grudging concession that “Labor is back in the economic discussion,” with no support from anyone else.
All four Insiders studio contributors came with a history of working for the anti-Labor News Corp or Nine Entertainment. They were ex News-Corp’s David Spiers and Patricia Karvelas, current Nine reporter Paul Sakkal, and Nikki Savva who is ex-News and now with Nine.
The commentary assumed that Labor was not up to the task of economic management and never would be, and that Coalition governments were the natural – and desirable – state of affairs.
The same was true for the ABC’s hours-long coverage of the Dunkley by-election count last Saturday night. Most commentaries reinforced those same narratives.
It is apparent that Australia’s pundits have very little clue about the actual economy. Studying published outcomes seems to be discouraged in Australia’s mainstream newsrooms. Making global comparisons appears absolutely forbidden.
Such is Australia’s doom.
Editor’s Note: Strip out immigration and real GDP per capita is down 1.1% under this government after 6 quarters of negative or flat growth.
This post was originally published on Michael West.
